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Posted
39 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

As long as Trump has been in the bully game, you would have thought he would have leaned to isolate and pick on one at a time instead of surrendering your size advantage to try it with everyone at once. 

Great point not to be overlooked. Why shouldn’t the EU join in with China to impose larger tariffs on the US and simultaneously agree with each other (EU-China) to lessen their tariffs and regulations. Even just announcing a pledge to do so would put pressure on Trump and punish the US stock market.

Let an iPhone cost $2,000 in the US, while $800 (equivalent) in the EU.

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Posted

 we all want to think that Trump will agree to eliminate these new tariffs if these other countries eliminate tariffs on the US. But that isn’t what Trump wants. He even says so. He believes that all US purchased items should be made here. Every iPhone, every car, every clothing item, every scrap of food. Americans will pay more but they will earn that much more too. Big, beautiful tomorrow.

Either we have a stock market much lower than today to accomplish that vision, or we face a standoff of a deep recession looking for trumps’ admin to finish off his remaining years. We’re 2.5 months in.

 

Posted

Since China put on a tariff, there has to be a response of a higher tariff from Trump. Right?  That's was the threat at the outset.  Correct?  That was what Bessent was saying.

I know a few folks that work at Apple and a good buddy has more than a million in Apple stock.  Watching a "safe haven" tech stock like Apple erode is heartbreaking.  It's not like you can flip a supply chain in a day!?!?  

The bad news is Trump would rather see the Dow shed another 2, 4, 5 or 10,000 points... rather than admit he made a mistake.  And that is what is truly terrifying to me.  

Posted

CEO of BitPanda thinks there’s a longer play here:

 

Spoiler

It’s not about China or Europe.
It’s about crashing the cycle.

Everyone’s busy debating whether Trump’s new tariff rhetoric is about protectionism, election tactics, or geopolitical strategy. But they’re missing the point — entirely.
What seems like protectionism might actually be a recession strategy.

The U.S. government is facing a massive refinancing wave. By the end of 2026, it needs to roll over $9 trillion (yes, trillion with a 'T') in maturing Treasury bonds. Most of this debt was issued during the near-zero interest rate years — a time we won’t see again anytime soon. Today, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is hovering below 4.20%, after peaking above 4.60% in Q4/2024.
That rate is the number that matters.
Every single basis point shaved off means billions saved in interest over the next decade.

And here’s the brutal truth:
The only realistic way to bring that yield down — is to slow the economy. By force, if necessary.

Enter tariffs.
Enter “economic nationalism.”
Enter measures that look irrational — but are laser-focused on deflating long-term growth expectations.

And yes, I understand the argument that tariffs tend to be inflationary in the short term. But what we’re seeing here is a systematic and significantly large-scale implementation — one that will, over the medium term, trigger a recession in the U.S. economy. And that’s exactly the scenario I described above.

A weaker economy leads to lower inflation expectations, lower demand for capital, and thus, lower yields. That’s exactly what Trump—and frankly, anyone at the helm of a debt-ridden superpower—needs right now.

It’s not just about tariffs. We’re seeing deliberate tolerance, even engineering, of economic slowdown.
The game plan is clear:
    1.    Suppress yields now.
    2.    Refinance trillions at lower cost.
    3.    Then switch to stimulus mode, revive the economy, and re-open the monetary floodgates.

We’ve seen this movie before. Think 2020–2021. Quantitative easing at scale. Zero rates. Explosive risk-on rally. That won’t happen again until this refinancing cycle is complete—and until the 10-Year Yield is under control.

Until then, we stay in a tight liquidity environment. The Fed is still reducing its balance sheet, and risk assets—especially in the tech and crypto space—remain subdued as a result.

So the next time someone says Trump is “starting a trade war,” look at it differently.
This isn’t a trade war.
It’s a yield war.

And for those watching markets:
Follow the 10-Year Treasury Yield Curve.
That’s where the real story is being written.

 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

CEO of BitPanda thinks there’s a longer play here:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

It’s not about China or Europe.
It’s about crashing the cycle.

Everyone’s busy debating whether Trump’s new tariff rhetoric is about protectionism, election tactics, or geopolitical strategy. But they’re missing the point — entirely.
What seems like protectionism might actually be a recession strategy.

The U.S. government is facing a massive refinancing wave. By the end of 2026, it needs to roll over $9 trillion (yes, trillion with a 'T') in maturing Treasury bonds. Most of this debt was issued during the near-zero interest rate years — a time we won’t see again anytime soon. Today, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is hovering below 4.20%, after peaking above 4.60% in Q4/2024.
That rate is the number that matters.
Every single basis point shaved off means billions saved in interest over the next decade.

And here’s the brutal truth:
The only realistic way to bring that yield down — is to slow the economy. By force, if necessary.

Enter tariffs.
Enter “economic nationalism.”
Enter measures that look irrational — but are laser-focused on deflating long-term growth expectations.

And yes, I understand the argument that tariffs tend to be inflationary in the short term. But what we’re seeing here is a systematic and significantly large-scale implementation — one that will, over the medium term, trigger a recession in the U.S. economy. And that’s exactly the scenario I described above.

A weaker economy leads to lower inflation expectations, lower demand for capital, and thus, lower yields. That’s exactly what Trump—and frankly, anyone at the helm of a debt-ridden superpower—needs right now.

It’s not just about tariffs. We’re seeing deliberate tolerance, even engineering, of economic slowdown.
The game plan is clear:
    1.    Suppress yields now.
    2.    Refinance trillions at lower cost.
    3.    Then switch to stimulus mode, revive the economy, and re-open the monetary floodgates.

We’ve seen this movie before. Think 2020–2021. Quantitative easing at scale. Zero rates. Explosive risk-on rally. That won’t happen again until this refinancing cycle is complete—and until the 10-Year Yield is under control.

Until then, we stay in a tight liquidity environment. The Fed is still reducing its balance sheet, and risk assets—especially in the tech and crypto space—remain subdued as a result.

So the next time someone says Trump is “starting a trade war,” look at it differently.
This isn’t a trade war.
It’s a yield war.

And for those watching markets:
Follow the 10-Year Treasury Yield Curve.
That’s where the real story is being written.

 

So sell everything now? And don't come back in until rates are down?

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

CEO of BitPanda thinks there’s a longer play here:

 

  Hide contents

It’s not about China or Europe.
It’s about crashing the cycle.

Everyone’s busy debating whether Trump’s new tariff rhetoric is about protectionism, election tactics, or geopolitical strategy. But they’re missing the point — entirely.
What seems like protectionism might actually be a recession strategy.

The U.S. government is facing a massive refinancing wave. By the end of 2026, it needs to roll over $9 trillion (yes, trillion with a 'T') in maturing Treasury bonds. Most of this debt was issued during the near-zero interest rate years — a time we won’t see again anytime soon. Today, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is hovering below 4.20%, after peaking above 4.60% in Q4/2024.
That rate is the number that matters.
Every single basis point shaved off means billions saved in interest over the next decade.

And here’s the brutal truth:
The only realistic way to bring that yield down — is to slow the economy. By force, if necessary.

Enter tariffs.
Enter “economic nationalism.”
Enter measures that look irrational — but are laser-focused on deflating long-term growth expectations.

And yes, I understand the argument that tariffs tend to be inflationary in the short term. But what we’re seeing here is a systematic and significantly large-scale implementation — one that will, over the medium term, trigger a recession in the U.S. economy. And that’s exactly the scenario I described above.

A weaker economy leads to lower inflation expectations, lower demand for capital, and thus, lower yields. That’s exactly what Trump—and frankly, anyone at the helm of a debt-ridden superpower—needs right now.

It’s not just about tariffs. We’re seeing deliberate tolerance, even engineering, of economic slowdown.
The game plan is clear:
    1.    Suppress yields now.
    2.    Refinance trillions at lower cost.
    3.    Then switch to stimulus mode, revive the economy, and re-open the monetary floodgates.

We’ve seen this movie before. Think 2020–2021. Quantitative easing at scale. Zero rates. Explosive risk-on rally. That won’t happen again until this refinancing cycle is complete—and until the 10-Year Yield is under control.

Until then, we stay in a tight liquidity environment. The Fed is still reducing its balance sheet, and risk assets—especially in the tech and crypto space—remain subdued as a result.

So the next time someone says Trump is “starting a trade war,” look at it differently.
This isn’t a trade war.
It’s a yield war.

And for those watching markets:
Follow the 10-Year Treasury Yield Curve.
That’s where the real story is being written.

 

While semi-logical, the question is after pissing off the world and making the US more unstable, who is going to be buying all that new debt?

Posted
3 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

While semi-logical, the question is after pissing off the world and making the US more unstable, who is going to be buying all that new debt?

It’s just trying to put lipstick on a pig, sure, it might work short term to refinance part of the debt, but in the process you are destroying the credibility in the US markets/bond. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

The U.S. government is facing a massive refinancing wave. By the end of 2026, it needs to roll over $9 trillion (yes, trillion with a 'T') in maturing Treasury bonds. Most of this debt was issued during the near-zero interest rate years — a time we won’t see again anytime soon. Today, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is hovering below 4.20%, after peaking above 4.60% in Q4/2024.

Look who got their sub 4%. 

image.png.a2fd0eeab980da716ae71962f723d82c.png

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Posted
24 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Watching a "safe haven" tech stock like Apple erode is heartbreaking. 

The nets that catch the suicide jumpers off their Chinese factories are heartbreaking. Sorry for your buddies portfolio though. :)

 

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Posted

Does anyone really believe Trump is playing the long game in an effort to refinance our debt? Laughable. Now if he destroys the economy and is able to refi the debt at 1%, he will definitely claim that as the objective.

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Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone really believe Trump is playing the long game in an effort to refinance our debt? Laughable. Now if he destroys the economy and is able to refi the debt at 1%, he will definitely claim that as the objective.

Let's be honest, without going full CR, anything even slightly positive will be heralded as a Trump/MAGA victory and anything negative is clearly the fault of Joe "the worst President in history" Biden

Posted
11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone really believe Trump is playing the long game in an effort to refinance our debt? Laughable. Now if he destroys the economy and is able to refi the debt at 1%, he will definitely claim that as the objective.

Some of us are able to look at these situations objectively and realize we never know the how’s and why’s of the decisions being made behind the curtain. 

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Posted

They have already given themselves immunity for both Q1 and Q2 saying these are still bidens numbers and his economy. They did say Q3 "could be" considered trumps economy although still partly bidens, maybe. Without going full CR, this won't even be a tough sell to most. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Some of us are able to look at these situations objectively and realize we never know the how’s and why’s of the decisions being made behind the curtain. 

Are Flamin' Hot Cheetos Dangerous for Your Health? — MAS'OOD CAJEE, DDS, MPH

Posted
14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone really believe Trump is playing the long game in an effort to refinance our debt?

Besnet has been pretty openly focused on bringing down the 10y. Looking back at some of his statements in hindsight is interesting. He basically said he they were going to get the yield down with or without the Fed. Of course it is overfitting in hindsight, but seriously go back and read some of his comments ca. February. 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Some of us are able to look at these situations objectively and realize we never know the how’s and why’s of the decisions being made behind the curtain. 

Between this take and the "well, the economy survived WW2 and a pandemic" it's starting to feel like there's really no reason to criticize or analyze any decisions any administration makes. 

After all, we'll never know and the sun will still rise tomorrow. 

Of course, hearing this message from the same folks who blamed Joe Biden for global inflation makes one wonder.

Posted
17 hours ago, TxTower said:


Right?!?

If Wallys buying we should be shorting. LOL. emoji23.png

Seriously though, Wally knows that they’re sitting on a ton of cash waiting for moments like these. Not a bad idea.

It really is funny how bang-on that was too lol. My apologies to Wally for being the Cassandra 

image.png.50811cf1fe4154017b2c4557a6d4a409.png

Posted
7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Of course, hearing this message from the same folks who blamed Joe Biden for global inflation makes one wonder.

I don’t recall ever blaming Biden for inflation, unless jokingly, but I am getting old and maybe I forgot. I have my criticisms for every administration, and can also recognize the good each does. I want this country to succeed, regardless of who is in office. I also know the man in White House is never as powerful as those hidden figures that put him there. 

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Posted
It really is funny how bang-on that was too lol. My apologies to Wally for being the Cassandra 
image.png.50811cf1fe4154017b2c4557a6d4a409.png

Everything’s down today moron.

Berkshire and Wally are going to be just fine.

You, on the other hand, should continue to show us all how smart you are and sell everything.
Posted

Where is the 15% down initial bounce? We kind of sailed right on by so far. I think there will be one still today but maybe at 518-519 ish in SPY. I will say no matter what ridiculousness there is news wise, Im going in pretty hard at 20% for at least a couple percent if I can at around 490 SPY.

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Some of us are able to look at these situations objectively and realize we never know the how’s and why’s of the decisions being made behind the curtain. 

Oh man, thank you. I needed that laugh this morning.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Trump’s a troglodyte surrounded by sycophants. Needs at least 1 real economist that has read a book in the last 60 years to tell him this is a bad plan.
 

 

Make Flip Phones Great Again!

Posted

SPY now down over 16% of ATH. If there is going to be a bounce today, it needs to happen pretty quick. Maybe at 17%? I mean if we keep falling we are going to start looking at the 20% crowd soon and their money. I didnt think Id be putting in my Limit Buy order today for 490, but here we are....

Posted
1 hour ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Some of us are able to look at these situations objectively and realize we never know the how’s and why’s of the decisions being made behind the curtain. 

come on man. You seriously think that there is more to this plan when the tariff percentages were set by an Excel formula (or ChatGPT) and included islands with zero populations/exports?

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Posted
34 minutes ago, TxTower said:

You, on the other hand, should continue to show us all how smart you are and sell everything.

I sold all of my long term holdings a little over a month ago and have been quite happy with holding that plus its proft in a money market earning interest and not losing 15-20% of its value. Decided to stay on Mr. Bones' Wild Ride with the other chunk of our holdings though.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

come on man. You seriously think that there is more to this plan when the tariff percentages were set by an Excel formula (or ChatGPT) and included islands with zero populations/exports?

So we just let the penguins continue to manipulate the currency? Not on his watch!

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Posted
3 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Trump’s a troglodyte surrounded by sycophants. Needs at least 1 real economist that has read a book in the last 60 years to tell him this is a bad plan.
 

 

I have 6 iPhone 5s - 10s in a drawer.  Bidding starts at tree fiddy each. 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It looks like it may have bounced off of 510 but it's retreating again?

It looks like 510 was the bounce. Already back up to 519. Too uncertain for me to jump in. To fall this far before a bounce at the 15% down level isnt a good sign for markets. 

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Posted

For an active trader, I can't see many wanting to end the week holding too much. Too much negative can occur over the next 2+ days. Without news of a positive change, I have to guess this afternoon will be ugly as some will want to clear out their portfolio..

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Posted
1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

For an active trader, I can't see many wanting to end the week holding too much. Too much negative can occur over the next 2+ days. Without news of a positive change, I have to guess this afternoon will be ugly as some will want to clear out their portfolio..

I agree but I have been wrong so many times in terms of what I think would be a rational direction for the market to go. Hell, we may go all the way up to the 5 day moving average today before we go back down.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Looks like the bounce was caused by Trump posting about making a deal with Vietnam. 

We will see if the market holds on to that.

Doesn't really appear to be fazed by that or the job numbers.

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