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Posted
3 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

CEO of BitPanda thinks there’s a longer play here:

 

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It’s not about China or Europe.
It’s about crashing the cycle.

Everyone’s busy debating whether Trump’s new tariff rhetoric is about protectionism, election tactics, or geopolitical strategy. But they’re missing the point — entirely.
What seems like protectionism might actually be a recession strategy.

The U.S. government is facing a massive refinancing wave. By the end of 2026, it needs to roll over $9 trillion (yes, trillion with a 'T') in maturing Treasury bonds. Most of this debt was issued during the near-zero interest rate years — a time we won’t see again anytime soon. Today, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is hovering below 4.20%, after peaking above 4.60% in Q4/2024.
That rate is the number that matters.
Every single basis point shaved off means billions saved in interest over the next decade.

And here’s the brutal truth:
The only realistic way to bring that yield down — is to slow the economy. By force, if necessary.

Enter tariffs.
Enter “economic nationalism.”
Enter measures that look irrational — but are laser-focused on deflating long-term growth expectations.

And yes, I understand the argument that tariffs tend to be inflationary in the short term. But what we’re seeing here is a systematic and significantly large-scale implementation — one that will, over the medium term, trigger a recession in the U.S. economy. And that’s exactly the scenario I described above.

A weaker economy leads to lower inflation expectations, lower demand for capital, and thus, lower yields. That’s exactly what Trump—and frankly, anyone at the helm of a debt-ridden superpower—needs right now.

It’s not just about tariffs. We’re seeing deliberate tolerance, even engineering, of economic slowdown.
The game plan is clear:
    1.    Suppress yields now.
    2.    Refinance trillions at lower cost.
    3.    Then switch to stimulus mode, revive the economy, and re-open the monetary floodgates.

We’ve seen this movie before. Think 2020–2021. Quantitative easing at scale. Zero rates. Explosive risk-on rally. That won’t happen again until this refinancing cycle is complete—and until the 10-Year Yield is under control.

Until then, we stay in a tight liquidity environment. The Fed is still reducing its balance sheet, and risk assets—especially in the tech and crypto space—remain subdued as a result.

So the next time someone says Trump is “starting a trade war,” look at it differently.
This isn’t a trade war.
It’s a yield war.

And for those watching markets:
Follow the 10-Year Treasury Yield Curve.
That’s where the real story is being written.

 

Do you have a link to this?

Posted
1 hour ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I don’t recall ever blaming Biden for inflation, unless jokingly, but I am getting old and maybe I forgot. I have my criticisms for every administration, and can also recognize the good each does. I want this country to succeed, regardless of who is in office. I also know the man in White House is never as powerful as those hidden figures that put him there. 

LOL. One person is crashing the world economy right now for no fucking reason. But sure, whatever you say, Mr. Objective.  

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Posted

He's a fucking crypto bro. Definitely the guy who's opinion we should trust on financial deals. 
 

in general I agree but he’s basically echoing Bessent. Don’t love tariffs but I do think the main intent is drive down 10 year to roll 10 trillion in treasuries at a lower rate. The numbers are material. 
 

I would argue stock market is still a little rich even now. Latest SPX earnings yield is still lower than 10 year. You aren’t getting paid enough to take on risk and it’s been that way for a while. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, TxTower said:

 


FIFY

 

That’s rich, considering.

For the record, I haven’t sold anything and don’t plan to. I was hedged extremely well coming into the year and have made no changes. I’m invested for portfolio return and plan to stay that way. 

But- your posts over the last few days seem to rely on a set of assumptions that lack a foundation other than a reversion to trend. That’s hardly first principles. 
You’re looking at market reaction to events. I’m looking at the markets in the context of the global economy and its structure
 

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Posted
57 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He's a fucking crypto bro. Definitely the guy who's opinion we should trust on financial deals. 

 

46 minutes ago, bullzak said:

He's a fucking crypto bro. Definitely the guy who's opinion we should trust on financial deals. 
 

in general I agree but he’s basically echoing Bessent. Don’t love tariffs but I do think the main intent is drive down 10 year to roll 10 trillion in treasuries at a lower rate. The numbers are material. 
 

I would argue stock market is still a little rich even now. Latest SPX earnings yield is still lower than 10 year. You aren’t getting paid enough to take on risk and it’s been that way for a while. 

Hey, it at least makes some rational sense and matches the actions of the administration.  I mean, I think we are all sane and can agree that the motive for tariffs on Canada are not to stop any significant amounts of Fentanyl from coming into the country.  Ok, then what are the motives?  If you understand the motives, you can maybe make a more calculated risk with your investment money.

Also, intent is just that.  It does not guarantee success, it does not guarantee the ability to stop momentum when whatever goal is attained and it does not guarantee there are no negative butterfly effects.  If we are swinging our big economic dick around to tank the world economy so as to refinance our debt at a manageable rate, fine, but that's gonna come with significant consequences beyond everyone's 401Ks.  Is anyone gonna want to lend you money again if you just show that you'll tank the world economy to get out from under its weight?

Posted
59 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Don’t love tariffs but I do think the main intent is drive down 10 year to roll 10 trillion in treasuries at a lower rate.

So I've numbers ranging quite a bit in terms of what is maturing in 2025 and needs to be rolled out. Is there a good source what exactly needs to be refinanced and at what rates they were originally issued? 

Posted
Just now, UTGrad98 said:

LOL we are 9 points away from a triggered circuit breaker at 499 SPY.

Taking a lot of will power to not push a good chunk of cash in my 401k into this dip. So far I am only doing stupid things in my trading accounts. 

Posted

I set a significant chunk of my net worth in at around a 493 limit buy order just now. You are right. I am super tempted to buy at 500. Even during Covid, we hit circuit breakers 4 times. Each time it hit, we shot up....for a while. Sadly one of the pharmacists had an emergency doctors appt and I have to go cover for him a couple hours from 1p-3pm. I wonder if that will end up being a good thing for me. Part of me thinks maybe he doesnt have a doctors appt....

Posted
8 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

LOL we are 9 points away from a triggered circuit breaker at 499 SPY.

So fucking dumb and self inflicted. It does make me laugh at this point. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

We are locked limit on fats, feeders, and hogs today. First time since 22 that we've done all three the same day, and it might have been since 20 

What are locked limits?

Posted
18 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

What are locked limits?

Futures cease trading on live cattle at a 6.50 move up or down, feeders at 8.25, and hogs at 4.00. You can trade it synthetically with options but futures lock at those prices. If they settle locked limits expand by half the next session. Same model is in place for the grains, but limits shift quarterly based on the prior 3 months ranges.  

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Posted
41 minutes ago, Goredho said:

 

Hey, it at least makes some rational sense and matches the actions of the administration.  I mean, I think we are all sane and can agree that the motive for tariffs on Canada are not to stop any significant amounts of Fentanyl from coming into the country.  Ok, then what are the motives?  If you understand the motives, you can maybe make a more calculated risk with your investment money.

Also, intent is just that.  It does not guarantee success, it does not guarantee the ability to stop momentum when whatever goal is attained and it does not guarantee there are no negative butterfly effects.  If we are swinging our big economic dick around to tank the world economy so as to refinance our debt at a manageable rate, fine, but that's gonna come with significant consequences beyond everyone's 401Ks.  Is anyone gonna want to lend you money again if you just show that you'll tank the world economy to get out from under its weight?

I view your post as the aspects of the lizard brain that exists in all of us barely evolved animals.

You have a man with a track record of saying what he's going to do, saying why he thinks that way, and sticking to it regardless. Lets take tariffs. He said he was going to do it. And everyone said it was a negotiating tactic. Everyone said it was bluster. Then he does it. You're sitting here and insisting that there is some grand strategy to what he's doing, and you want to find out what it is so you can act and behave accordingly with your money. Because what you're looking it is so baselessly stupid, there has to be an underlying reason. Nevermind that we've seen this time and again from the guy making these decisions. He has never said he's wrong about even the most obviously demonstrably wrong things. 

What does that have to do with lizard brains? Because we're the species that has invented stories to explain away shadows and seasons and every other thing we can't understand because our brain can't handle it, it can't handle uncertainty. Because the idea that one moron and a bunch of cowards and cultists will willingly tank everything because they're stupid, and no one will stop them, is too terrifying to comprehend. You're looking at a plate of spaghetti and thinking there's a John Nash Beautiful Mind pattern hiding in the red covered noodles, if only you looked hard enough. It's a Richard Dreyfus "This Means Something" mountain of mashed potatoes except this is no movie, there aren't aliens inspiring this trade war for the greater good, and none of it means anything. 

2 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Futures cease trading on live cattle at a 6.50 move up or down, feeders at 8.25, and hogs at 4.00. You can trade it synthetically with options but futures lock at those prices. If they settle locked limits expand by half the next session. Same model is in place for the grains, but limits shift quarterly based on the prior 3 months ranges.  

So what you're saying is that everyone is buying beef, hens, and pork because they expect real problems coming down the pipe?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I view your post as the aspects of the lizard brain that exists in all of us barely evolved animals.

You have a man with a track record of saying what he's going to do, saying why he thinks that way, and sticking to it regardless. Lets take tariffs. He said he was going to do it. And everyone said it was a negotiating tactic. Everyone said it was bluster. Then he does it. You're sitting here and insisting that there is some grand strategy to what he's doing, and you want to find out what it is so you can act and behave accordingly with your money. Because what you're looking it is so baselessly stupid, there has to be an underlying reason. Nevermind that we've seen this time and again from the guy making these decisions. He has never said he's wrong about even the most obviously demonstrably wrong things. 

What does that have to do with lizard brains? Because we're the species that has invented stories to explain away shadows and seasons and every other thing we can't understand because our brain can't handle it, it can't handle uncertainty. Because the idea that one moron and a bunch of cowards and cultists will willingly tank everything because they're stupid, and no one will stop them, is too terrifying to comprehend. You're looking at a plate of spaghetti and thinking there's a John Nash Beautiful Mind pattern hiding in the red covered noodles, if only you looked hard enough. It's a Richard Dreyfus "This Means Something" mountain of mashed potatoes except this is no movie, there aren't aliens inspiring this trade war for the greater good, and none of it means anything. 

So what you're saying is that everyone is buying beef, hens, and pork because they expect real problems coming down the pipe?

They are limit down, so people are selling the shit out of them(albeit from all time highs) because of demand concerns. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I view your post as the aspects of the lizard brain that exists in all of us barely evolved animals.

You have a man with a track record of saying what he's going to do, saying why he thinks that way, and sticking to it regardless. Lets take tariffs. He said he was going to do it. And everyone said it was a negotiating tactic. Everyone said it was bluster. Then he does it. You're sitting here and insisting that there is some grand strategy to what he's doing, and you want to find out what it is so you can act and behave accordingly with your money. Because what you're looking it is so baselessly stupid, there has to be an underlying reason. Nevermind that we've seen this time and again from the guy making these decisions. He has never said he's wrong about even the most obviously demonstrably wrong things. 

What does that have to do with lizard brains? Because we're the species that has invented stories to explain away shadows and seasons and every other thing we can't understand because our brain can't handle it, it can't handle uncertainty. Because the idea that one moron and a bunch of cowards and cultists will willingly tank everything because they're stupid, and no one will stop them, is too terrifying to comprehend. You're looking at a plate of spaghetti and thinking there's a John Nash Beautiful Mind pattern hiding in the red covered noodles, if only you looked hard enough. It's a Richard Dreyfus "This Means Something" mountain of mashed potatoes except this is no movie, there aren't aliens inspiring this trade war for the greater good, and none of it means anything. 

So what you're saying is that everyone is buying beef, hens, and pork because they expect real problems coming down the pipe?

Hard to not go CR with this, but I’ll try.  I understand those thoughts and their allure.  But if Trump, all of his followers, and most importantly the people handling (manipulating?) him are all idiots incapable of a plan and only reflexively and repeatedly shooting themselves in the dick, what does that say about the opposition and their following that includes you and I?  Has the opposition’s collective classifying of TrumpCo as morons helped bring about a meaningful change in our nations trajectory at his direction?

You are of course free to ignore the obvious answers to those questions, but I’ve got a family/retirement nest egg to try to protect, and writing off everything from TrumpCo as the random chaos associated with a government of, by and for morons isn’t helpful to that end.

Edited by Goredho
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Hard to not go CR with this, but I’ll try.  I understand those thoughts and their allure.  But if Trump, all of his followers, and most importantly the people handling (manipulating?) him are all idiots incapable of a plan and only reflexively and repeatedly shooting themselves in the dick, what does that say about the opposition and their following that includes you and I?  Has the opposition’s collective classifying of TrumpCo as morons helped bring about a meaningful change in our nations trajectory at his direction?

You are of course free to ignore the obvious answers to those questions, but I’ve got a family/retirement nest egg to try to protect, and writing off everything from TrumpCo as the random chaos associated with a government of, by and for morons isn’t helpful to that end.

The answer is no. I realized I veered heavily cloak in my post, but you are not really addressing my point; you're looking for reasoning and a plan behind a group/person who has shown time and time again that they don't think multiple steps ahead. The opposition also is gutless losers for a number of reasons. None of this has anything to do with our nation's direction (as directly related to the concept of The Plan Behind Tariffs). 

I'm also trying to protect my ability to retire. I sold all of my stake in a defense aeronautics fund today and put it in Berkshire Hathaway, because I don't think American defense companies are going to do as well as they have as the world recoils from us. But your last sentence is important, and illustrative of the point I'm trying to make; You want to protect things, and you need a plan or concept you can plan around. Minimize damage. Protect yourself. I'm suggesting that by pretending to conjure up a plan from the ether, which may or may not be work, you're putting yourself at further risk. If you think you divine the plan is they juke left, and go that way, and they juke right, you're left off even worse than you were if you'd done nothing.

Historically, the market is the market and over time everyone wins. If you still believe that, then doing nothing, long term (no idea of your personal timeline here), might be the winning play, so to speak. Personally, I'm looking at Gold, and investing in foreign defense companies that can produce to the NATO standard, and probably some Hong Kong index funds because I think these moves long term favor China. 

Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

The answer is no. I realized I veered heavily cloak in my post, but you are not really addressing my point; you're looking for reasoning and a plan behind a group/person who has shown time and time again that they don't think multiple steps ahead. The opposition also is gutless losers for a number of reasons. None of this has anything to do with our nation's direction (as directly related to the concept of The Plan Behind Tariffs). 

I'm also trying to protect my ability to retire. I sold all of my stake in a defense aeronautics fund today and put it in Berkshire Hathaway, because I don't think American defense companies are going to do as well as they have as the world recoils from us. But your last sentence is important, and illustrative of the point I'm trying to make; You want to protect things, and you need a plan or concept you can plan around. Minimize damage. Protect yourself. I'm suggesting that by pretending to conjure up a plan from the ether, which may or may not be work, you're putting yourself at further risk. If you think you divine the plan is they juke left, and go that way, and they juke right, you're left off even worse than you were if you'd done nothing.

Historically, the market is the market and over time everyone wins. If you still believe that, then doing nothing, long term (no idea of your personal timeline here), might be the winning play, so to speak. Personally, I'm looking at Gold, and investing in foreign defense companies that can produce to the NATO standard, and probably some Hong Kong index funds because I think these moves long term favor China. 

That's cool, it's obviously working for you, so carry on.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Goredho said:

That's cool, it's obviously working for you, so carry on.

I don't think any of this is working for any of us. I'm simply trying to say, what if you plan for A, but there is no plan?

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I realize it's all priced in by the derivatives gurus, but I don't think I'd be buying calls going into the weekend.  Hope it pays off.

Too sensible. 

Posted (edited)

I am having severe FOMO on having sold $50 UVIX calls for $5.80 for about half my holdings.  Trying to be conservative and insure at least some profits.  Usually I try to take half of things that have super steep run ups and sell out of the money calls for that half, to create some income, of 10% plus on that run up.  Pull backs let me keep that 10%.  Or close out and take it and be happy.

I should be selling calls on half of the remaining half after another $19 run up.  But I am trying to see what is going to happen to blunt a further blow to the markets on Monday.  Jim Cramer had some very dark shit to say this morning and basically said there was not anything he could tell anyone to buy right now.  He mentioned he was all cash in 1987, on Black Monday.

Cut 401K stock exposure to 15% as a just in case.  I am just trying to see how I/we are going to find a lot of good news this weekend.  I don't see headlines of Trump blinks, or Trump retreats on tariffs.  Do You?  So where are my buyers coming from? Where is the good news going to come from? Perhaps the cure would be a Sunday TV blitz of Miller, Bessent and Ludwick explaining how genius the policy is? 

So UVIX is where I am gonna live at least until Monday.

PS - how many trillion market cap has thus far been liberated here at the close?

Edited by horn4life
Posted
1 minute ago, BJ Johnson said:

How do these moves favor China?

Power vacuum. The political and economic influence we've been abandoned will be gobbled up by China. This is very much to the benefit of China and aligned with its goals. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Power vacuum. The political and economic influence we've been abandoned will be gobbled up by China. This is very much to the benefit of China and aligned with its goals. 

I don't see us abandoning power and influence, we're exerting it. China is a bit of a black box, but from all I've seen their economy is currently weak. These tariffs should stress the Chinese as they to subsidize their economy pretty heavily.

As to US markets, selling is dumb. If they can withstand the global economy being completely turned off and then back on then they can handle this. If liquidity is eventually needed, it will be provided.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BJ Johnson said:

I don't see us abandoning power and influence, we're exerting it. China is a bit of a black box, but from all I've seen their economy is currently weak. These tariffs should stress the Chinese as they to subsidize their economy pretty heavily.

As to US markets, selling is dumb. If they can withstand the global economy being completely turned off and then back on then they can handle this. If liquidity is eventually needed, it will be provided.

Blind or stupid, pick one

Posted
8 minutes ago, BJ Johnson said:

I don't see us abandoning power and influence, we're exerting it. China is a bit of a black box, but from all I've seen their economy is currently weak. These tariffs should stress the Chinese as they to subsidize their economy pretty heavily.

As to US markets, selling is dumb. If they can withstand the global economy being completely turned off and then back on then they can handle this. If liquidity is eventually needed, it will be provided.

YARN | He's back! He's back! | Hook (1991) | Video clips by quotes |  869f9fdc | 紗

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Posted
8 minutes ago, BJ Johnson said:

I don't see us abandoning power and influence, we're exerting it. China is a bit of a black box, but from all I've seen their economy is currently weak. These tariffs should stress the Chinese as they to subsidize their economy pretty heavily.

As to US markets, selling is dumb. If they can withstand the global economy being completely turned off and then back on then they can handle this. If liquidity is eventually needed, it will be provided.

You're delusional.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

We'll see. China was already in a debt crisis.  

Economic crisis isn't solved by shrinking investment in your economy. China knows this. We used to know it. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, BJ Johnson said:

How do these moves favor China?

 

17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Power vacuum. The political and economic influence we've been abandoned will be gobbled up by China. This is very much to the benefit of China and aligned with its goals. 

 

8 minutes ago, BJ Johnson said:

I don't see us abandoning power and influence, we're exerting it. China is a bit of a black box, but from all I've seen their economy is currently weak. These tariffs should stress the Chinese as they to subsidize their economy pretty heavily.

As to US markets, selling is dumb. If they can withstand the global economy being completely turned off and then back on then they can handle this. If liquidity is eventually needed, it will be provided.

China has a lot of issues, demographically and economically. But these actions have already driven historic enemies in South Korea and Japan to respond to the US in concert. America has shown itself unreliable. People will look for stable trading partners, and guess what, China will be happy to play that part for the time being. And the manufacturing already exists there. 
 

Saying America is expecting power is premature when we haven’t gotten anything yet. But the rest of the world is pissed at us, that’s for sure. 

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