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Posted (edited)

But what that huge spike shows is that there is a shit ton of hope in the market still. A rumor. Regardless, you can see how much a little good news might send the market soaring, and send my UVIX unrealized profits into the shitter... 

I will be interested to see if the hope fades as I thought it might towards the end of the day.  

 I also saw cinemark was a leader early today, and I thought about movie theaters as a winner in recessionary periods.  

 

 

Edited by horn4life
Posted

I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.  

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Posted
Just now, UTGrad98 said:

I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.  


seconds and minutes in the market have been driven by algos and HFT for 15 years. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Thank you for your attention to this matter, lol

He honestly believes that he's the world's CEO, and that he's reigning in Division heads.

Edited by TexasHooch
Posted
13 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What dates and strikes are you looking for?

Ive been short via puts for weeks now. So right now I have about 15-20 put positions on individual stocks, and a handful of index contracts that are all mostly deep ITM, although they weren't when I bought them. Here's the next bunch of SPY I will sell. 

image.png.884959880e41749c5337c0499a776b90.png

I'll try bank at least  60-70% of the profits and just buy more at lower prices. Not sure what my May OTM strikes will be other than some May $515 I already own. Volatility has spiked so high of late that the premiums change the risk/reward outlook considerably. At some point I will have to switch to selling puts on stocks I have wanted to buy, but refused to because of the mad valuations. A lot of trash companies will fail, but a lot of promising companies will hopefully be available at some semi-reasonable valuations.

But the problem with a complete idiot in charge is you never know how much damage he is capable of. I had S&P ~4500 as my target level to reach, but as the buffoonery increases I am reconsidering and may just hold off a bit longer. Trying to predict anything under the current admin is useless, and we all know how the market digs uncertainty.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, horn4life said:

But what that huge spike shows is that there is a shit ton of hope in the market still. A rumor. Regardless, you can see how much a little good news might send the market soaring, and send my UVIX unrealized profits into the shitter... 

I will be interested to see if the hope fades as I thought it might towards the end of the day.  

 I also saw cinemark was a leader early today, and I thought about movie theaters as a winner in recessionary periods.  

 

 

Are they? Movie Theater chains basically make all of their money on concession sales. Studies take most of the box office. Hard to imagine folks shelling out for concessions in a recessionary period. More like smuggling in candy and pruno because we're all poor now. 

Any word on any margin calls?

Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Just received my monthly/quarterly link to my 401k statement. The heat is going to ramp up

Part of the problem is Wall Street seems to think there is an adult in the room somewhere that is eventually going to step in and make this go away. But there isn't.

 

If the pain gets bad enough, and the recession deep enough, you may be able to pull together a veto proof majority in Congress to end this madness, but we are still a long, long way off on that. The Members are just beginning to stir and realize that maybe they shouldn't have broadly delegated the ability for the President to set Tariff rates. We've got a ways to go before enough GOP Senator's and House Members have constituents beating down their doors. Not CR-ing, just trying to put some process in perspective.  If we get a couple of weeks of 4-5% daily falls, maybe something could come together quickly, but otherwise, slow bleed in the red is going to take till fall (probably past the Virginia off year elections, assuming the GOP gets crushed) before Congress will stir into action. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted

So here is something that I think is interesting.  IS is different this time?  

Now clearly I have asserted that it is, from a causation perspective, completely different.  I am also open to being completely fucking wrong and that is why I want the perspective of others.

1) In all selloffs there is unpredictability that fuels the sell offs.  In all the recent sell offs, there is a lot of data backing up a bounce back up.  But is this different? From an unpredictability standpoint?  Really?  I tend to think so because this reason was not a complete surprise, except in being woefully underpriced by the market. But do you think unpredictability is unpredictability and the cause is irrelevant?

2) Since all the modeling says a bounce back - do you think that is so firmly in the algorithms that is why you get such a big pop so fast on a slight upward movement?  And how much of this past modeling is build into the minds of so many fund managers?

Anyhow, just curious about you opinions? As its an argument I keep having with myself about whether the historical models of unpredictable sell offs apply in one that I viewed as predictable?  If that makes sense?

Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

This thread 

The Usual Suspects Movie Trivia GIF by Movie Trivia Schmoedown

This is a situation that was completely and wholly driven by a political catalyst from the President of The United States.  Why, and honestly how, can it be discussed without inclusion or animus related to the cause?

Jesus, it'd be like discussing someone's chlamydia without including the $20 sexual encounter with the meth-head prostitute on the corner.  I mean, it could be done, I suppose.  But why if only for the sake of the prostitute and her prostitute friends.

Edited by TexasHooch
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Posted
26 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

This thread 

The Usual Suspects Movie Trivia GIF by Movie Trivia Schmoedown

Is there something we are missing about how the tariffs aren't actually driving a huge economic decline? 

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Posted (edited)

The market further collapsed today (but don't mention why).  The market at one point surged (but don't mention the report that Trump was considering a 90 day pause). The market then tanked again (but don't mention the White House calling the report fake news).

This thread is much, much more reserved than the thread In Cloak (that's why I'm here), but come on.  We don't have to pretend it's not a the thing.

Edited by TexasHooch
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Posted
3 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So here is something that I think is interesting.  IS is different this time?  

Now clearly I have asserted that it is, from a causation perspective, completely different.  I am also open to being completely fucking wrong and that is why I want the perspective of others.

1) In all selloffs there is unpredictability that fuels the sell offs.  In all the recent sell offs, there is a lot of data backing up a bounce back up.  But is this different? From an unpredictability standpoint?  Really?  I tend to think so because this reason was not a complete surprise, except in being woefully underpriced by the market. But do you think unpredictability is unpredictability and the cause is irrelevant?

2) Since all the modeling says a bounce back - do you think that is so firmly in the algorithms that is why you get such a big pop so fast on a slight upward movement?  And how much of this past modeling is build into the minds of so many fund managers?

Anyhow, just curious about you opinions? As its an argument I keep having with myself about whether the historical models of unpredictable sell offs apply in one that I viewed as predictable?  If that makes sense?

This sell off is following the same pattern as other sell offs and yes the BIG technicals like the 10% and 20% drops tend to have bounces that last at least a week or 2 if not longer. I remember COVID analysts were saying the selling in Feb-Mar 2020 was nothing like how their models had predicted and everyone was getting run over left and right and technicals didnt matter. Lets see what happens here. Trump can put out tweets that move markets 5% in either direction. It wont be a straight line but I think we can bounce around here and test the 480 low a couple more times maybe even going lower a couple % later in the week. Trumps 50% escalating tariffs to China will be a market mover if it goes into effect Wednesday and the response from Europe will be a market mover too. 

 

I think we know some of how the market will move if we sell into the close today or if we hold around the 500 SPY level. If we sell into the close I think there is a chance we follow the 10% bounce from a few weeks ago where we test it 2 or 3 times then fall below 480 for capitulation and then slowly climb back into the summer. The thing is the VIX is so fucking high right now, today just may be the day we bottom for now and we climb back up to the 5 day and possibly the 200 day moving average. Which puts us back in the 570s say by June. 

Posted

Yeah, I think the unpredictability of it all is the thing.  Usually when something really bad happens it can't be undone, and there's a formula that follows.  This, at least partially, can be undone so there's a variable in the calculus that's not usually there.

Posted
3 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Yeah, I think the unpredictability of it all is the thing.  Usually when something really bad happens it can't be undone, and there's a formula that follows.  This, at least partially, can be undone so there's a variable in the calculus that's not usually there.

Understanding what's moving the market and where it will go is now more a matter of comprehending the psychology of a single man and how investors respond to his megalomania than anything you might have learned in B school.

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Posted

Impossible to discuss the current market conditions without including the cause. If someone can't handle the fact that Trump caused a market collapse then I agree they should stay away from any market discussions for a while. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Ive been short via puts for weeks now. So right now I have about 15-20 put positions on individual stocks, and a handful of index contracts that are all mostly deep ITM, although they weren't when I bought them. Here's the next bunch of SPY I will sell. 

image.png.884959880e41749c5337c0499a776b90.png

I'll try bank at least  60-70% of the profits and just buy more at lower prices. Not sure what my May OTM strikes will be other than some May $515 I already own. Volatility has spiked so high of late that the premiums change the risk/reward outlook considerably. At some point I will have to switch to selling puts on stocks I have wanted to buy, but refused to because of the mad valuations. A lot of trash companies will fail, but a lot of promising companies will hopefully be available at some semi-reasonable valuations.

But the problem with a complete idiot in charge is you never know how much damage he is capable of. I had S&P ~4500 as my target level to reach, but as the buffoonery increases I am reconsidering and may just hold off a bit longer. Trying to predict anything under the current admin is useless, and we all know how the market digs uncertainty.

I only have long calls (july and sept), but in short term a straddle seems like you could pick up both sides of this volatility. And I think that we are only in for huge volality in the near team.  See like 930 am. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Keep crying bros. This is fucking hilarious. Is this what you all do in the CR?

I hope your 401ks go to zero. Fuckin' boomers and gen X-ers, man.

I'm all cash, baby.  But I'm willing to put it aside to hear your financial analysis of the situation (because you haven't actually given any yet).

Nevermind, no I won't.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Keep crying bros. This is fucking hilarious. Is this what you all do in the CR?

I hope your 401ks go to zero. Fuckin' boomers and gen X-ers, man.

meh. Many of us went to cash in Feb/Mar. I was previously 100% in stock for the past 30 years. While it will ultimately be a good thing for me to have the stock market continue to drop, I don't hope that happens.

Exception: I do celebrate every time I see that Tesla is down.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted
22 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Keep crying bros. This is fucking hilarious. Is this what you all do in the CR?

I hope your 401ks go to zero. Fuckin' boomers and gen X-ers, man.

If you're not interested in the market, why are you in a market thread? What is wrong with you? Also, I'm sorry you're poor. 

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Keep crying bros. This is fucking hilarious. Is this what you all do in the CR?

I hope your 401ks go to zero. Fuckin' boomers and gen X-ers, man.


I just wanted to take this opportunity to laugh at you. 
 

Mothers Day Lol GIF by reactionseditor

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Posted
47 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Keep crying bros. This is fucking hilarious. Is this what you all do in the CR?

I hope your 401ks go to zero. Fuckin' boomers and gen X-ers, man.

Laugh Lol GIF by GIPHY News

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Posted
1 hour ago, TexasHooch said:

Jesus, it'd be like discussing someone's chlamydia without including the $20 sexual encounter with the meth-head prostitute on the corner.  I mean, it could be done, I suppose.  But why if only for the sake of the prostitute and her prostitute friends.

Paging @South Austin.  @South Austin to the white courtesy phone, please.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Aaaand the EU just responded with 25% tariffs.  

NOT responded - just a report that the proposed response would be 25%

 

But it will be interesting to see if I lose the momentum about 1:30... we shall see.  But now the calls I sold are degrading and helping offset some my UVIX dip. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, horn4life said:

NOT responded - just a report that the proposed response would be 25%

 

But it will be interesting to see if I lose the momentum about 1:30... we shall see.  But now the calls I sold are degrading and helping offset some my UVIX dip. 

I think the EU would like to negotiate a way out of this, as opposed to the Chinese, who neither want to back down and would like to use this as the moment to assert it's hegemony. The problem for the EU is whether they can get Navarro off the ridiculous VAT stance. 

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Captainant said:

I don't think the tariff action is gonna slow down. This is from 30 minutes ago:

Trump: "Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

What a fucking child.

Who was it in CR that said the children are gone, and the adults are in the room?

 

 

26 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So we’re gonna trade tits and tats to keep the market somewhat level?  Cool cool.

According to economists, that's actually the best course of action.

Fuck me? Well fuck you!

 

 

Other than APPL, the tech stocks in my portfolio had a slight bounce. But I'm sure the dead cat will keep dropping.

Edited by Superhero

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