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Posted

It just occurred to me, that observing the market over the past week is a lot like back during and after Covid when I dabbled with the OTC for fun.  Random, volatile as hell, and shady as all get out.

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Posted (edited)

Well thought I was gonna maybe have a red number today.  But decay on the 50 and 65 covered calls swept in to make it a pretty darn fine day.  This one was a nail biter for me.  Up about at the close but on decay, and UVIX was green! by $0.15 - But now damnit with after hours down almost $4.60 so far after hours, looks like I may lose a couple grand on the day after all. Funny how a gain can turn to a loss while I am fucking typing.

Right now I just really want to get to Friday and have all my ITM shit exercise and move to cash.  So those are no longer "unrealized" profits.

Edited by horn4life
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I can't tell how this is gonna affect tariff movement

Oldie but goodie.  I thought the one in 2018 was better though:

Quote

 

"It’s called the bowling ball test. You know what that is? That’s where they take a bowling ball from 20 feet up in the air and drop it on the hood of the car. And if the hood dents, the car doesn’t qualify,” Trump said at a Missouri fundraiser, an audio recording of which was obtained by NBC News. “It’s horrible, the way we’re treated.”

Reporters scrambled to find factual footing. Was it this Japanese pedestrian safety test, which employs a head-shaped object roughly the size of a bowling ball? Or maybe Trump was thinking of a Nissan ad, The Washington Post suggested.

"I have no idea what he was talking about," said Kristin Dziczek, a director at the independent research firm Center for Automotive Research.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-was-only-joking-about-japanese-bowling-ball-test-cars-n857111

 

The truth is, regulatory hurdles are actually real (the bowling ball test is not).  The article cites an example of one with Japan and how the disparity was addressed under the Obama administration (by, you know, talking).  One problem though....

Quote

...the Trans-Pacific Partnership eased the regulatory hurdles American automakers face selling cars in Japan, by allowing signatories to use the same expedited review processes domestic Japanese carmakers enjoyed with their vehicles. But Trump withdrew from the TPP shortly after his inauguration, sending the U.S. back to Square 1 when it comes to regulatory obstacles in the auto market.

 

Edited by TexasHooch
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  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Imagine using an illustration of dropping a bowling ball onto a car from 20 feet in the air and imagine that there's going to be a barely perceptible dent. 

Reminds me of the this:

Confused Arrested Development GIF

He just has no connection to everyday life or reality. 

(although sadly $10 bananas may not be too far off)

Edited by Dahobbs
Posted
5 hours ago, horn4life said:

But what that huge spike shows is that there is a shit ton of hope in the market still. A rumor. Regardless, you can see how much a little good news might send the market soaring, and send my UVIX unrealized profits into the shitter... 

If there is a shit ton of hope in the market still, we are no where near the bottom.  That hope is what fuels dead cat bounces and allows bears to re-load short positions.

5 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.  

And coordinated.  Some big whales had their shit ready to go for the rumor release.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And coordinated.  Some big whales had their shit ready to go for the rumor release.

Crazy how an $8/mo blue checkmark was able to move trillions of dollars.

Posted

5lZd.gif

image.thumb.png.6088c2512653ed5dea9501675f2a1911.png
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-false-tariff-headline-that-sent-stocks-on-a-2-trillion-ride-2224ef75
https://archive.is/98rc1

A wild stock-market swing based on false information added $2.4 trillion in value and erased it almost as quickly Monday morning.

The episode played out in just over half an hour, all based on misleading reports that said President Trump was considering a 90-day pause to implementing tariffs.

The rally-turned-rout underscored how feverish many investors are for any information that might calm the market and how easily misinformation and Wall Street’s high-frequency trading strategies that react to headlines in seconds can impact asset prices.

News that tariff-shocked investors had been dying to see began circulating on social media shortly after 10:10 a.m. in New York: “HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA,” the headline read, in an apparent reference to words from Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.

Stock indexes soared. After trading as much as 4.7% lower early in the session, the S&P 500 rose to trade up 3.4% in a jarring intraday reversal. The broad-based index added $2.4 trillion in market value in the 10 minutes from 10:08 to 10:18 a.m., according to Dow Jones Market Data.

By 10:41 a.m. it had all been wiped out. The S&P 500 erased $2.5 trillion in value in around 23 minutes after the White House quickly denied that such a pause was being discussed.

After the false headline caused the S&P 500 to trade in its widest intraday range since March 2020, the index closed down just 0.2%.

The origin of the report remains unclear. The headline was circulating on social media by 10:13 a.m., when a widely followed X account known as Walter Bloomberg posted it.

The anonymous account has for years posted trading-related news throughout the market day, often in the form of all-caps newswire headlines copy-and-pasted from the Bloomberg Terminal. The account, which has nearly one million followers, isn’t associated with Bloomberg News. The Walter Bloomberg account and others like it are popular with market watchers who don’t have access to Bloomberg’s expensive news-and-data terminals.

The headline in question didn’t come from Bloomberg’s newswires, however. And the news was quickly gaining steam with major outlets. A CNBC anchor read the news live on air around 10:15 a.m., before warning viewers that, “We’ll try and source that, exactly where that came from.”

At 10:20, Reuters sent the same news over its wires, attributing it to CNBC.

“As we were chasing the news of the market moves in real-time, we aired unconfirmed information in a banner. Our reporters quickly made a correction on air,” a CNBC spokeswoman said.

A Reuters spokeswoman said: “Reuters, drawing from a headline on CNBC, published a story on April 7 saying White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett had said that President Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries except China. The White House denied the report. Reuters has withdrawn the incorrect report and regrets its error.”

The original headline might have been an inaccurate summary of an interview Hassett gave on Fox News earlier Monday morning. In a “Fox & Friends” interview before the market opened, Hassett was asked if the White House would consider a 90-day pause on the tariffs.

“Yeah, I think the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide. There are more than 50 countries in negotiation with the president,” Hassett said, without elaborating further on a potential pause.

Posted

I was in a trading group a few years ago that included a small fund manager. A group of traders got massively underwater on a penny stock so they banded together to generate a fake article regarding the company being bought out. They played it off to the trading group as if it were real, merely sharing the tweet from some "news site". 

Funny thing, there was an error in the article. Let's just say the decimal was in the wrong place and not in their favor... Someone called it out in the group and many of us laughed about how shitty the company was to release the article in an attempt to pump the stock, with such an egregious error that created the exact opposite effect. A member of our group got very offended and unintentionally tipped their hand that they were the author... I left the group, they were reported to the SEC, but nothing happened.

Lots of shady shit goes on in the trading world, price targets, buy recommendations, sell recommendations, articles to create hype and fear. Only those who truly fuck the whales get in trouble. Trust nothing.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I was in a trading group a few years ago that included a small fund manager. A group of traders got massively underwater on a penny stock so they banded together to generate a fake article regarding the company being bought out. They played it off to the trading group as if it were real, merely sharing the tweet from some "news site". 

Funny thing, there was an error in the article. Let's just say the decimal was in the wrong place and not in their favor... Someone called it out in the group and many of us laughed about how shitty the company was to release the article in an attempt to pump the stock, with such an egregious error that created the exact opposite effect. A member of our group got very offended and unintentionally tipped their hand that they were the author... I left the group, they were reported to the SEC, but nothing happened.

Lots of shady shit goes on in the trading world, price targets, buy recommendations, sell recommendations, articles to create hype and fear. Only those who truly fuck the whales get in trouble. Trust nothing.

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

Posted
11 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

After market was very positive and Japan market is up about 5%. 

Well yea, with the roll-out/rollback/roll back out/rollback/ad nauseum manner in which this admin handles a lot of things has everybody spraying and praying.  

Posted

China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride".

Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now. 

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