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Posted

It just occurred to me, that observing the market over the past week is a lot like back during and after Covid when I dabbled with the OTC for fun.  Random, volatile as hell, and shady as all get out.

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Posted (edited)

Well thought I was gonna maybe have a red number today.  But decay on the 50 and 65 covered calls swept in to make it a pretty darn fine day.  This one was a nail biter for me.  Up about at the close but on decay, and UVIX was green! by $0.15 - But now damnit with after hours down almost $4.60 so far after hours, looks like I may lose a couple grand on the day after all. Funny how a gain can turn to a loss while I am fucking typing.

Right now I just really want to get to Friday and have all my ITM shit exercise and move to cash.  So those are no longer "unrealized" profits.

Edited by horn4life
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I can't tell how this is gonna affect tariff movement

Oldie but goodie.  I thought the one in 2018 was better though:

Quote

 

"It’s called the bowling ball test. You know what that is? That’s where they take a bowling ball from 20 feet up in the air and drop it on the hood of the car. And if the hood dents, the car doesn’t qualify,” Trump said at a Missouri fundraiser, an audio recording of which was obtained by NBC News. “It’s horrible, the way we’re treated.”

Reporters scrambled to find factual footing. Was it this Japanese pedestrian safety test, which employs a head-shaped object roughly the size of a bowling ball? Or maybe Trump was thinking of a Nissan ad, The Washington Post suggested.

"I have no idea what he was talking about," said Kristin Dziczek, a director at the independent research firm Center for Automotive Research.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-was-only-joking-about-japanese-bowling-ball-test-cars-n857111

 

The truth is, regulatory hurdles are actually real (the bowling ball test is not).  The article cites an example of one with Japan and how the disparity was addressed under the Obama administration (by, you know, talking).  One problem though....

Quote

...the Trans-Pacific Partnership eased the regulatory hurdles American automakers face selling cars in Japan, by allowing signatories to use the same expedited review processes domestic Japanese carmakers enjoyed with their vehicles. But Trump withdrew from the TPP shortly after his inauguration, sending the U.S. back to Square 1 when it comes to regulatory obstacles in the auto market.

 

Edited by TexasHooch
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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Imagine using an illustration of dropping a bowling ball onto a car from 20 feet in the air and imagine that there's going to be a barely perceptible dent. 

Reminds me of the this:

Confused Arrested Development GIF

He just has no connection to everyday life or reality. 

(although sadly $10 bananas may not be too far off)

Edited by Dahobbs
Posted
5 hours ago, horn4life said:

But what that huge spike shows is that there is a shit ton of hope in the market still. A rumor. Regardless, you can see how much a little good news might send the market soaring, and send my UVIX unrealized profits into the shitter... 

If there is a shit ton of hope in the market still, we are no where near the bottom.  That hope is what fuels dead cat bounces and allows bears to re-load short positions.

5 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.  

And coordinated.  Some big whales had their shit ready to go for the rumor release.

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Posted

5lZd.gif

image.thumb.png.6088c2512653ed5dea9501675f2a1911.png
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-false-tariff-headline-that-sent-stocks-on-a-2-trillion-ride-2224ef75
https://archive.is/98rc1

A wild stock-market swing based on false information added $2.4 trillion in value and erased it almost as quickly Monday morning.

The episode played out in just over half an hour, all based on misleading reports that said President Trump was considering a 90-day pause to implementing tariffs.

The rally-turned-rout underscored how feverish many investors are for any information that might calm the market and how easily misinformation and Wall Street’s high-frequency trading strategies that react to headlines in seconds can impact asset prices.

News that tariff-shocked investors had been dying to see began circulating on social media shortly after 10:10 a.m. in New York: “HASSETT: TRUMP IS CONSIDERING A 90-DAY PAUSE IN TARIFFS FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA,” the headline read, in an apparent reference to words from Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.

Stock indexes soared. After trading as much as 4.7% lower early in the session, the S&P 500 rose to trade up 3.4% in a jarring intraday reversal. The broad-based index added $2.4 trillion in market value in the 10 minutes from 10:08 to 10:18 a.m., according to Dow Jones Market Data.

By 10:41 a.m. it had all been wiped out. The S&P 500 erased $2.5 trillion in value in around 23 minutes after the White House quickly denied that such a pause was being discussed.

After the false headline caused the S&P 500 to trade in its widest intraday range since March 2020, the index closed down just 0.2%.

The origin of the report remains unclear. The headline was circulating on social media by 10:13 a.m., when a widely followed X account known as Walter Bloomberg posted it.

The anonymous account has for years posted trading-related news throughout the market day, often in the form of all-caps newswire headlines copy-and-pasted from the Bloomberg Terminal. The account, which has nearly one million followers, isn’t associated with Bloomberg News. The Walter Bloomberg account and others like it are popular with market watchers who don’t have access to Bloomberg’s expensive news-and-data terminals.

The headline in question didn’t come from Bloomberg’s newswires, however. And the news was quickly gaining steam with major outlets. A CNBC anchor read the news live on air around 10:15 a.m., before warning viewers that, “We’ll try and source that, exactly where that came from.”

At 10:20, Reuters sent the same news over its wires, attributing it to CNBC.

“As we were chasing the news of the market moves in real-time, we aired unconfirmed information in a banner. Our reporters quickly made a correction on air,” a CNBC spokeswoman said.

A Reuters spokeswoman said: “Reuters, drawing from a headline on CNBC, published a story on April 7 saying White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett had said that President Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries except China. The White House denied the report. Reuters has withdrawn the incorrect report and regrets its error.”

The original headline might have been an inaccurate summary of an interview Hassett gave on Fox News earlier Monday morning. In a “Fox & Friends” interview before the market opened, Hassett was asked if the White House would consider a 90-day pause on the tariffs.

“Yeah, I think the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide. There are more than 50 countries in negotiation with the president,” Hassett said, without elaborating further on a potential pause.

Posted

I was in a trading group a few years ago that included a small fund manager. A group of traders got massively underwater on a penny stock so they banded together to generate a fake article regarding the company being bought out. They played it off to the trading group as if it were real, merely sharing the tweet from some "news site". 

Funny thing, there was an error in the article. Let's just say the decimal was in the wrong place and not in their favor... Someone called it out in the group and many of us laughed about how shitty the company was to release the article in an attempt to pump the stock, with such an egregious error that created the exact opposite effect. A member of our group got very offended and unintentionally tipped their hand that they were the author... I left the group, they were reported to the SEC, but nothing happened.

Lots of shady shit goes on in the trading world, price targets, buy recommendations, sell recommendations, articles to create hype and fear. Only those who truly fuck the whales get in trouble. Trust nothing.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I was in a trading group a few years ago that included a small fund manager. A group of traders got massively underwater on a penny stock so they banded together to generate a fake article regarding the company being bought out. They played it off to the trading group as if it were real, merely sharing the tweet from some "news site". 

Funny thing, there was an error in the article. Let's just say the decimal was in the wrong place and not in their favor... Someone called it out in the group and many of us laughed about how shitty the company was to release the article in an attempt to pump the stock, with such an egregious error that created the exact opposite effect. A member of our group got very offended and unintentionally tipped their hand that they were the author... I left the group, they were reported to the SEC, but nothing happened.

Lots of shady shit goes on in the trading world, price targets, buy recommendations, sell recommendations, articles to create hype and fear. Only those who truly fuck the whales get in trouble. Trust nothing.

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

Posted
11 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

After market was very positive and Japan market is up about 5%. 

Well yea, with the roll-out/rollback/roll back out/rollback/ad nauseum manner in which this admin handles a lot of things has everybody spraying and praying.  

Posted

China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride".

Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride".

Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now. 


history/market trends are one guide. The current guy in charge with no guardrails trying to implement 1890’s trade policy is a different guide. I guess we’ll see which one wins. 

Posted (edited)
On 1/20/2020 at 11:36 AM, Dnaguy said:
On 1/20/2020 at 1:57 PM, Wiler77 said:
On 1/20/2020 at 3:10 PM, Dnaguy said:
1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

After market was very positive and Japan market is up about 5%. 

 

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Well yea, with the roll-out/rollback/roll back out/rollback/ad nauseum manner in which this admin handles a lot of things has everybody spraying and praying.  

 

1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride".

Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now. 

I need to take more drugs.  The same kinda drugs this market is on.

Edited by Parliament
Posted (edited)

I am loaded to the upside, so clearly biased, but I think that this is wound to spring in the short term with anything approximating good news. See the movement from this morning. I could see a good jump this week or next. Or it could melt down completely. I think that we are higher than current either way as we come of the summer, and that is where my chips are. @Wally Fairway is the market mover, so I am willing to contribute to the Wallyfund if he will take up some ultra leveraged put positions. In the meantime, I'll just be donkeying along and shooting dice.  

Edited by Anastasis
Posted

To add, my most optimistic and perhaps unreality based take is that Bessent is doing UK pound things with the target this time on China and we are all in a better place with a sufficiently long time horizon. Or maybe one step closer to the aircraft carrier backstop, which would suck.  

Posted
2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:


history/market trends are one guide. The current guy in charge with no guardrails trying to implement 1890’s trade policy is a different guide. I guess we’ll see which one wins. 

The house always wins. Where and when they want it to go, it will go.

Posted

I can't remember the book, but there was a story about a new trader on the floor of this commodity firm. One of the suits stopped to talk with him one day and asked him about his trading. The young man explained his trading plan, "Market will drop to this line and I will buy because it will go up from here" type of plan. When the market dropped to that line, as predicted, the decline stopped and he made his buy. The young man was proud of himself.

While still with the young man, the suit immediately got on the phone and ordered a relatively large sale of the commodity, since he had the authority to do so. As soon as the large sell transaction went through, the market quickly started heading back to the downside. Lesson learned.  

Posted (edited)

image.png

Where on this chart are we? My guess is that rise up between Euphoria and Complacency?

 

When CPI comes in just a little hotter than expected does market go up or down?  What happens when the market sees unemployment numbers rising? 

8 hours ago, Parliament said:

I need to take more drugs.  The same kinda drugs this market is on.

Since my bet is volatility, all I know is a FALSE report sent the market soaring and a lot of those gains stuck.  So was that a legitimate market rally?  IS good news from a lie, the same as actual good news? That momentum based on a false report has carried though bigly into today's futures.  Like rises, falls are not straight down, and as I said yesterday, there is clearly a shit ton of hope, (or market manipulation.)  Regardless looks like a lot of folks are going risk off this morning. 

Half me wants to cash out.  The other half says, a two day severe drop followed, by a minor drop buoyed by a false report, followed by "we're Back" optimism? That seems like a scary ass combination to bet on.  Simply as we have not actually seen any of the tariff effects hit the market.  

BUT... I think the optimism is based on "Well folks are coming to the table to negotiate". which is honestly a good thing.  But when you see the chart of "reciprocal tariffs" and look at that as a starting point of negotiation?  Maybe that chart was complete and total bullshit.  IF so negotiations should be pretty easy.  IF the chart is actually what the administration wants, then good luck.  As doesn't accurate math have to come into any negotiation about money at some point?

7 hours ago, Anastasis said:

To add, my most optimistic and perhaps unreality based take is that Bessent is doing UK pound things with the target this time on China and we are all in a better place with a sufficiently long time horizon. Or maybe one step closer to the aircraft carrier backstop, which would suck.  

Now had we started out this way, perhaps we wouldn't have needed a rally on false info yesterday.  This would be both a thoughtful and reasonable way to try and team up against China.  But... oh why even bother.

I guess it's just hard for me to see reconfiguration of the entire trading system only resulting in two really bad days for the stock market,. Followed by all is well.  Is it going to be that easy?

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
1 minute ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Yes, but Colombia is offering a package deal. As long as you purchase both from them, they will cover the cost of the tariffs.

Do you think these are the types of deals that eventually get worked out and that's why the market isn't spooked? 

Posted
37 minutes ago, immamac said:

Do you think these are the types of deals that eventually get worked out and that's why the market isn't spooked? 

I’d post Trump’s latest tweet but I know where it would go from there. Take a look, ignore the rhetoric for this purpose, and I think it provides a picture.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I’d post Trump’s latest tweet but I know where it would go from there. Take a look, ignore the rhetoric for this purpose, and I think it provides a picture.

I don't use twitter or truth, you can post it in this context it's primary source of info for the discussion.

Posted

I mean, this is why the stock market is not the economy.  It is completely irrational in the short term.

The tariffs, unless dispensed with completely, are going to have negative effects on business planning, pricing, and sales, and consumer behavior, particularly for market bellwethers like Apple and Nvidia.

The stock market is no doubt going to stabilize some around the whatever is the new status quo, but businesses are not going to be able to generate the numbers that "justify" their valuations and growth as long as these tariffs are lurking out there.

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Posted
1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

I mean, this is why the stock market is not the economy.  It is completely irrational in the short term.

 

We’d probably be shocked to know how much trading is being done via automation. Short-term trading is one of the most emotional careers a person can choose. The best traders are able to control their emotions and stick to their strategies.

Now imagine today’s technology, with the ability to have the same training and rules, but with the capacity to simultaneously pull massive amounts of data, and void of emotion. Then imagine that machine in the hands of those with the greatest ability to control the market.

I don’t think these machines are trading based on fundamentals, but are doing it based on instant market data, going long and short, while taking advantage of human emotions. In other words, don’t trust short-term moves either direction and broaden your view of what short-term means.

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Posted

Well I am down a small car one open.  But was up a small SUV at one point yesterday and about to sell $20K in calls when the fake news came in yesterday.  Those calls at UVIX  April 17 $90 that were $19K are worth $5K today.  Would have been nice to have had that sold call cushion. So a little bitter on the fake part, and the interesting timing.  But That's a big swing in a day, that's for sure.  Bigger for sure than I have ever fucked around with.  And what I am doing right now is extremely risky.  I thought about bailing, but think I have already taken the brunt of todays blow. But great for you guys!!!  Glad ya'll are getting back some cash, even if I am bleeding.

But I keep thinking about has driven this rally.  A false report on pausing tariffs. And other countries calling the White House.  A sprinkle of Iran nuclear talk fairy dust sprinkle as well.  I know everyone is going to come to the table.  But talking isn't a deal, any more than unrealized gains, are realized gains.

I am afraid that this may be looked back at as a bounce that was a retail investor selling opportunity.  Earnings forecasts will start to show a nibble of what's coming.  Tariffs are inflationary.  And if we don't have tariffs where is all the revenue going to come from?  It's a catch 22.   And eventually good old addition is going to tell the tale. 

My losses down to $20K, while typing and a phone call. So another day that feels like a month...   I just have a hard time seeing a two day selloff being the only damage, even it it was trillions.

Posted

Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.

Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.

Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.

Or he digs in and fixates on the goods trade deficits because that's the only thing he's truly hung up on, and CFIT's the economy. 

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Posted (edited)

 

13 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.

Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.

Since this popped up while I was typiig -IF I agree with everything above.  Do you think that not all of that could have been done without destroying consumer confidence and 401K's?  There is a reason the markets did not price in any more than reciprocal tariffs!  Because everyone was told that reciprocal tariffs was what was going to be announced last Wednesday.  What was presented was not what was promised... along with clarity.

 

But on point

52 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

We’d probably be shocked to know how much trading is being done via automation. Short-term trading is one of the most emotional careers a person can choose. The best traders are able to control their emotions and stick to their strategies.

Now imagine today’s technology, with the ability to have the same training and rules, but with the capacity to simultaneously pull massive amounts of data, and void of emotion. Then imagine that machine in the hands of those with the greatest ability to control the market.

I don’t think these machines are trading based on fundamentals, but are doing it based on instant market data, going long and short, while taking advantage of human emotions. In other words, don’t trust short-term moves either direction and broaden your view of what short-term means.

This is why I was asking the question about using all prior period of uncertainty models and extrapolating it into this market via the trading algorithms.  i thought that might have been a big component of the flash run up on the "90 day suspension." 

 

But since I dared take a peek at PLTR on Monday AM thinking... maybe... I was fucking shocked to see it trading near $85 a few minutes ago.  I was trading at $65 yesterday morning.  I love the company long term, but WTF justified a 20% run up in two days on a stock with that multiple... unless blue skies ahead?  SO I sold $90 puts for $6.60 expiring Friday.  Short time frame so might just get washed out completely.  But come on, 20% in 28 hours?  I got to bet against that techie (that I love),

Edited by horn4life
Posted

Was watching Gundlach yesterday. I know he talks his book like they all do but still worth a watch. He thinks there is some serious deleveraging in bond market and we go lower. He thought equities 4500. 
 

I could see that easily. Overdue for recession and we are in midst of federal belt tightening (?). Powell isn’t going to rescue anybody right now. Stocks still rich. Don’t think this is over yet but certainly not a calamity. 

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Posted (edited)

So I was watching the 5 day moving average which is around spy 524 and we bounced off like we did when we bounced there a couple times at the 10% drop. Interested if we climb there again to 524 today or if we keep moving back down. If we retake the 5 day that is a good sign we move up. If we don't we may retest. 

Edited by UTGrad98
....
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Posted
30 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.

Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.

With the way China has dug in, I don't see any indication that either side is going to budge anytime soon. Until that is settled and someone backs down I don't see things ending anytime soon.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

There’s a shark in the pool. 

O that fucking made me laugh!

 

18 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

With the way China has dug in, I don't see any indication that either side is going to budge anytime soon. Until that is settled and someone backs down I don't see things ending anytime soon.

Why would China give in?  Xi doesn't have to explain that he wiped out a big chunk of retirement savings?  There is a SHIT TON of profit made by the US selling China goods.  Enitre US businesses are based on doing almost only that.  Should the disappear?  For the greater good?

If the administration thinks they can turn off the Chain Supply chain and not send the US to a deep recession, somebody has not done the math. 

 

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