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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:20 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. 
our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. 

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What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

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Posted (edited)
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:28 PM, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

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I don’t know that was the game or not. I hoped it wasn’t and said it would be dumb if it was but it was possible he actually believed that shit. 
I think we will onshore some national security shit that’s China has done up to now and I think trade deficits will get a little bit better. 
I don’t like the negotiating strategy of brinksmanship for incremental improvements (I don’t go to my wife and threaten divorce because I want Friday to be steak and blow job night- even if it might be likely to work bc what if it doesn’t?) but who the hell knows?  
convincing the other person you are a nut in a game of chicken is an effective strategy to make them swerve, but why fucking bother unless it’s super important?  What we are trying to do with China might be, the other stuff is dumb. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:28 PM, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

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The faucets of Fentanyl to the north were turned off.  CRISIS MANAGED.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:28 PM, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

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Don't worry we'll be doing this all again in approximately 86 days

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Posted (edited)

Tomorrow you are going to see the beginnings of Trumps actions in reports and today was the day to blink, because tomorrow might have been off the cliff.  

I also think it's hilarious as shit that folks actually think this was a plan.  This was a lie to cover a mistake, nothing more nothing less.  At least there is clarity and certainty this afternoon...

Shit I want to reshort PLTR at $92

Edited by horn4life
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Posted (edited)
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:20 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. 
our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. 

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No, they will not. That's ridiculous. Things that were already true or already happening will get get announced as if they are new. Some new things that have no practical significance or no realistic chance of actually happening (e.g., Apple investing hundreds of billions in the US) will get announced.  And that market overall will be worse than it would have been if none of this had happened. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:38 PM, Dahobbs said:

No, they will not. That's ridiculous. Things that were already true or already happening will get get announced as if they are new. Some new things that have no practical significance or no realistic chance of actually happening (e.g., Apple investing hundreds of billions in the US) will get announced.  And that market overall will be worse than it would have been if none of this had happened. 

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Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:11 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

There’s a grand rearranging that’s possible and if that’s what we are trying to do I’m in for some temporary pain if it will bring them to heel and fix our national security problems that showed during Covid with over dependence on them. 

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You aren't this dumb are you?

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Posted (edited)
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:42 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

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Thinking that a trade deficit being reduced is necessarily a good thing is part of the idiocy. I'm not taking a bet if that is what you mean by our trade deals "getting better" because it is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of trade and the global economy. 

The US excelled at producing a good that was highly valued, the dollar. Everyone wanted it. They would give us nice things for it. Now they don't want it as much, so they'll give us less stuff for it. That technically will result in a more balanced import/export stat line, but it isn't a good thing. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 5:28 PM, royiv said:

You’re making an assumption that this administration is looking to make deals. Unfortunately, the messaging is all over the place. From we want to make deals to tariffs are here to stay to the completely made-up formula to calculate the tariffs, there’s no way to understand what the end goal is here. It’s all speculation because the message is incoherent and is subject to the whims of a moron. 

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A really fundamental thing about deals is you have to trust your counterparty will stick to it once the deal is made. The rest of the world knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that we won't. There's no reason for anyone to even attempt to negotiate any trade deals with us and there's no evidence anyone is actually trying to do so.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:52 PM, horn4life said:

Ok had to rehshort PLTR... first little bite

Some of the airlines went nuts, what do you guys think has over bumped? 

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Ha, I was looking at the airlines specifically. Domestic travel will be down in a recession, and I expect international travel to the US to take a pretty big fucking hit. 

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Posted (edited)
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:45 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

You aren't this dumb are you?

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Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard.  

Yeah- I'm dumb.  I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people.  DUMB. Or, nailing the Sark hire and what he was doing after being 5-7.  And writing at length about it. Or- saying the Astros were going to win the division in 23 and 24 when they were buried under a mountain of shit. My track record on this board from the beginning is wrong about everything.  

Go look at the 2025 draft thread where I say we are getting mid double digits from last April for another example of Wulaw missing the point!

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:12 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard.  

Yeah- I'm dumb.  I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. 

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The only "strategy" that makes sense is to have control over Trump's phone so you can fuck with the market yourself. None of this is rational.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:14 PM, wildcat09 said:

The only "strategy" that makes sense is to have control over Trump's phone so you can fuck with the market yourself. None of this is rational.

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If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:17 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

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Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:17 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

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Who swerved exactly? 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:21 PM, wildcat09 said:

Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

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I'm sure that you will totally and completely back down in 90 days when we sign a bunch of new trade deals, right? The Japanese don't have people on a plane as we speak to renegotiate their deal.  

Again, I recognize the brinksmanship nature of what happened and am on record from the absolute beginning as saying "I don't like it". That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

  On 4/9/2025 at 7:23 PM, Blotto said:

Who swerved exactly? 

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We'll see in 90 days I guess. 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:26 PM, Thomas Walsh said:

Everyone here should be happy slightly less pissed off.

The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win.

That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.

 

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He always caves when people call his bluff on this shit. His version of the USMCA was NAFTA with a few trivial differences.  It happened in early February when Trudeau called his bluff. Trump backed down and said Trudeau agreed to a bunch of new shit, except EVERYTHING trudeau agreed to was announced the previous December. he's a fucking toddler and when you make a habit of throwing temper tantrums and then caving, its not particularly advantageous in future negotiations. The country is in no way better off than we were in February, except he wiped out trillions in net worth. Art of the deal....what a legend. 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:21 PM, wildcat09 said:

Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

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Yup.  Also, I suspect somebody chloroformed Navarro and stuffed him in a closet long enough to talk Trump into blinking. 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:26 PM, Thomas Walsh said:

Everyone here should be happy.

The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win.

That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.

 

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I was happy when my portfolio was 20% larger 3 months ago before this sefl inflicted bullshit started. 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:24 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm sure that you will totally and completely back down in 90 days when we sign a bunch of new trade deals, right? The Japanese don't have people on a plane as we speak to renegotiate their deal.  

Again, I recognize the brinksmanship nature of what happened and am on record from the absolute beginning as saying "I don't like it". That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

We'll see in 90 days I guess. 

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What do you think will happen in the new trade deals? What is the benefit that you will think will come from them? What, in your opinion, was the problem with them in the first place? 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 7:24 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

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Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 6:42 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

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That’s a real stretch to find a silver lining in one of the most stupid self inflicted wounds of all time. 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:06 PM, Dahobbs said:

What, in your opinion, was the problem with them in the first place? 

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This.  The "problem," as repeatedly stated by the administration and its mouthpieces, is that we have trade deficits (for goods....note how they are silent on services, for which we run a trade SURPLUS) with many countries.  That's it.  That's the problem.  Now, they attribute that to "cheating" and such, but "cheating" is just the mechanism they blame for creating the "problem" - that problem being "we buy more goods from Vietnam than Vietnam buys from us."  The "problem" is fucking dumb, stupid, and idiotic.  A trade deficit per se is not a problem.  It is a state of relationship between two trading partners who have differing needs and resources.  I will always run a deficit with HEB.  That deficit is not only not a problem, it is a mutually beneficial arrangement.

This whole conversation, using only the words of the administration itself, is dumb layered on stupid layered on moronic topped with insanity icing.

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:14 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

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  On 4/9/2025 at 8:15 PM, CTC2 said:

That’s a real stretch to find a silver lining in one of the most stupid self inflicted wounds of all time. 

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And these.

"I really wanted a blowjob last night.  So I pulled a gun on my wife and she caved and gave me one." 

Wulaw: "WINNING!"

Sane people: "Holy fucking shit, that explains why she immediately filed for divorce, is going to take you to the cleaners, and has filed criminal charges that will see you put away for 10 years.  And also, she told everyone in your professional and social circles about it, and now nobody wants anything to do with you."

Wulaw: "But don't forget -- HE GOT A BJ!"

 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:15 PM, Brisketexan said:

This.  The "problem," as repeatedly stated by the administration and its mouthpieces, is that we have trade deficits (for goods....note how they are silent on services, for which we run a trade SURPLUS) with many countries.  That's it.  That's the problem.  Now, they attribute that to "cheating" and such, but "cheating" is just the mechanism they blame for creating the "problem" - that problem being "we buy more goods from Vietnam than Vietnam buys from us."  The "problem" is fucking dumb, stupid, and idiotic.  A trade deficit per se is not a problem.  It is a state of relationship between two trading partners who have differing needs and resources.  I will always run a deficit with HEB.  That deficit is not only not a problem, it is a mutually beneficial arrangement.

This whole conversation, using only the words of the administration itself, is dumb layered on stupid layered on moronic topped with insanity icing.

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Apparently Wulaw wants his children to be able to stitch up Nike's in a 105 degree sweatshop for 12 hours a day. beats a career in real estate I guess. 

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:22 PM, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

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Maybe, but the volatility isn't done yet. We went through this same song and dance with Canada and Mexico. Tariffs announced. Tariffs paused. Nothing really happens. More, bigger, better, tariffs announced after the pause. Expect more of the same unless someone has managed to grab the wheel. 

Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:22 PM, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

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I learned my lesson in 2020….

this time I pushed in a little on tues SPY at $496.

Got back out late today with a tidy bump… at $536…but not late enough seeing it closed at $548!

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Posted
  On 4/9/2025 at 8:31 PM, UTexasFight said:

I learned my lesson in 2020….

this time I pushed in a little on tues SPY at $496.

Got back out late today with a tidy bump… at $536…but not late enough seeing it closed at $548!

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Yeah. Picked up some sept calls into close on Friday. Dumped a portion today to take some money off the table. Riding the rest out. Put a gun to my head and I think we could see a couple more big upsides runs in that time frame (nothing this magnitude of course).

  On 4/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, Dahobbs said:

Maybe, but the volatility isn't done yet.

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Agree with this. I think directional plays are going to win only with a measure of luck involved due to the unpredictability. I think that a smarter position than the one I staked out at the end of last week is to straddle and sell off the wins on "both sides". If we can claw back to something like SPY 580-600 by the end of the summer I will probably take that up.   

 

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