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Posted
Just now, tbone_ said:

Martha Stewart has to be pissed these days. “Why the fuck did I go to prison again?”

If only she could have just held out another decade and worn a red hat to show fealty to the regime, she too could get away with insider trading and market manipulation 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Seems like a problem. 
 

We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

Subsidizing or providing tax benefits for domestic production would be a more direct and targeted away to solve those sorts of strategic issues. Unpredictable application of tariffs will not encourage investment into domestic industry. They can be here today and gone tomorrow. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Subsidizing or providing tax benefits for domestic production would be a more direct and targeted away to solve those sorts of strategic issues. Unpredictable application of tariffs will not encourage investment into domestic industry. They can be here today and gone tomorrow. 

Sounds an awful lot like the evil CHIPS Act.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If only she could have just held out another decade and worn a red hat to show fealty to the regime, she too could get away with insider trading and market manipulation 

 

IMG_8661.jpeg

Posted

Funny headline this AM:

Stocks plummet as tariff-pause euphoria gets reality check

Reality check = people realizing this shit will happen again in 3 months and do not want to deal with the volatility.  Retirees moving $$ to safer havens.  People moving the Jr/Sr in HS college funds into cash, etc.

Just my opinion, worth what you paid.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Eh just a 3% drop so far. Wake me up when we get closer to 6. 

Same place we were before that rally into close. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
9 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

people realizing this shit will happen again in 3 months

Trump cant wait 3 months for the attention, so he will find other justifications for threatening to carpet bomb the world with new tariffs. Because he's a fucking imbecile. 

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Posted (edited)

So had to jump in a bit more.  I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward.  No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money.

Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius.  Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in.  NOW THAT would be of interest to me.  For obvious short reasons.

Hope you guys sold on the bounce! Got 10% of my $40K Unrealized gains I did not realize.  But UVIX covered calls are silly returns.

 

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
2 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So had to jump in a bit more.  I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward.  No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money.

Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius.  Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in.

Hope you guys sold on the bounce!

 

Randolph--look: 

image.thumb.png.fb3316007c14f0733426af025f5a2b36.png

 

YARN | Mortimer..We're back | Coming to America | Video ...

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Posted

Been on a lot of market update calls this week (and all the economists admit they have no idea what’s happening going forward) and the picture they are painting of Trump’s strategy can best be summed up by this scene:

 

 

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Posted

WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety.  And I can see getting really excited over a "win."  Especially when you thought you were going to be making big bank writing mortgages, writing deals with a 5 in the front of them.  So, I imagine there is a lot of stress for everyone in the RE business, especially lending.  Now you have potential buyers with less net worth in nearly every case than they had two weeks ago.  Risk is everywhere, and rates on the 30 year moved up?!?! 10 year not going where you thought.  That.s not side investment account money, that's how you make a living money.  So I give him a pass on getting so excited on seeing some real hope.  

I also like to hear from opposing views.  I also wish that when folks come to this thread they do insert at least a little bit of prediction, question or something  specific! beyond the obvious political aspects of this.  Hey, I got run over in covid as I was more of a newbie, and was stupidly not in the market a month before the VIX started moving.  As I was the first person talking about the impending doom as any bad info getting out of China means really bad. And I had a big stack in the bank looking to buy another flip house.  I got smoked as I came in late and the Fed saved the day.  I knew the Fed was unlikely to save on a disaster made by an individual, when the individual could change course.  I had the losses that educated me better on the Fed's powers.  

I sort of see the market as vacillating, getting the occasional move upwards but more of a slow drift downward.  

UNLESS - We have a slew of deals with a bunch of countries starting today and running through the weekend. It will be interesting to see.  Or will we see a weekend of Sunday News shows of mostly incoherence when it comes to the math?  If my calls expire OTM I will carry some positions through the weekend.

So how many deals inked by Next Wednesday?   Now that everyone that is negotiating with him knows who was the first to blink under pressure? Does that influence negotiating strategy, when your strategy was strength?  Or am I misreading that?  

 

 

 

*** What really sucks is we saw what could have been today regarding inflation.  What a fucking shame.

Posted

My investment strategy hasn't changed. Hold and add over time. I tried to be more active during COVID, but I would have been marginally better off just holding. I do adjust how much invest automatically each month. Right now, more is going to cash savings to leave dry powder. 

If I were a more active investor and had the time to actually manage things, if probably make a play on the volatility that I expect we see over the next few years. But for the most part I think a bunch of transactions, outside of strategic rebalancing, just results in churn for churn's sake.  

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Posted

I moved to cash save a very small amount (about 10%) at the end of January when you know who started flapping his goldfish mouth about tariffs.  I did a re-balance at the close Tuesday to move to 25% equities, 75% cash.  Who the hell knows what's going to happen?  I'll make more adds over time to get back to my normal 75% invested / 25% cash.  If the market is back where it was pre-tariffs by the time I reach that level, fine.  I come out ahead not worrying about this stuff when I go to bed at night.

At this point in my life / career, I'm not worried so much about return on capital; rather return of capital.

Posted
42 minutes ago, horn4life said:

WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety.  And I can see getting really excited over a "win." 

The best part was Wulaw acting like Trump bailing on everything he said he was going to do was some masterstroke of negotiation, rather than an tacit acknowledgement that he was on track to proper fuck the economy "like nobody's every seen before."  

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Posted
3 hours ago, royiv said:

Oh look, it’s Trump’s billionaire buddy and appointee to be the ambassador to Italy taking advantage of this market manipulation.

Billionaire casino owner Tilman Fertitta has taken advantage of a steep drop in the stock market by acquiring more shares of Wynn Resorts at close to its 52-week low.

According to an SEC filing released Tuesday afternoon, Feritta has acquired an additional 400,000 shares. Some 200,000 of the shares were acquired for $70.39; 100,000 shares at $70.30, and 100,000 shares at $67.62.

The date of the acquisition was April 4.

Is Fertitta taking loans from the Teamsters' pension fund? Or borrowing off of the Rockets' value?

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Posted (edited)

So fuck - now I sort of have to pay attention to my positions.  Fucking rising so fast that Trump might completely surrender to Xi by this afternoon.  That would burn me again. 

16 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

That was me at 4:30. Wife thought I was nuts, then I started buying.  

Already ran past my calls but if it holds 20% in two days?  Gotta like that.

Edited by horn4life
Posted

Oh... I was wondering what the push downward was.  House got step one of massive deficit budget bill one step closer forward.  One stupidity pulls slightly back as another strongly pushes forward to fuck up the economy.

So, is there any history on how economies perform over 4 years with a 35-40 VIX?

Posted
17 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I think me betting my entire 401k on the Rockets to win the finals would be safer than me trying to play this market.

Not a bad idea.

 

Posted

I was outside doing yard work for the past 2 hours jokingly thinking to myself, it would be funny if circuit breakers hit today. Id definitely put something in as we got close to 7%. But I needed to reseed part of my lawn so I missed it....

Posted
6 hours ago, horn4life said:

Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go  the manipulated rally.

Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn.  Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy.

Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we?  To match the meme administration.

The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning.  And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession.  I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well.  

-------------------------

THE BLOW BY BLOW

But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out.

I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back.  The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing.  I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it.

I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder.  So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar.  Went to look at tides and winds for Port A,  Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV...  Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit...  Then it fucking freezes.  So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed.  Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" 

My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond.  I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash?

I am upset but relieved.  And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful."  and "You still made us so much money!"  What a great fucking wife!  She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck!  What are you doing!"

Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red.  I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room.  Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it.  So another crisis averted.

-----------

Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months.  So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down.

Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow...

 

Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ

Post your 1040 then.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I figure I can post that or "We're fucking back, baby." every day for the next three months minimum.

We should coordinate, so I can post this at closing those days.

we-suck-again-oh-no.gif

Edited by Goredho
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Posted

I was in NYC this week and had a meeting at Blackstone. Lots of investments are put on hold because of volatility. Funny enough on leaving I almost ran over Stephen Schwarzman coming out the elevator.  

The Sr. MD had to skip our meeting last minute because they were on the phone with PortCo CEO/CFOs all day/night trying to help game plan tariff mitigation.

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Posted

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

Posted
Just now, UTGrad98 said:

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

Your coupons are set the entire 30 years. 

You can sell it to someone before maturation as well. 

 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, immamac said:

Your coupons are set the entire 30 years. 

You can sell it to someone before maturation as well. 

 

You know, if the government doesn’t go belly up between now and then. Or if they decide to honor the deal. 

Posted
On 4/4/2025 at 8:10 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone really believe Trump is playing the long game in an effort to refinance our debt? 

He has a lot of debt coming due on his own shit. That's the game. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Slacks said:

He has a lot of debt coming due on his own shit. That's the game. 


plz man. This guy has a lizard brain surrounded by know nothing sycophants. Competent leaders would have a hard time driving rates down (which involves 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order thinking). He loves tariffs going back to the 80’s, campaigned on tariffs, and has been given free rein on tariffs by the eunuch run GOP Congress. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

Posted
10 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

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