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Posted
  On 4/10/2025 at 1:41 PM, boilerhorn said:

people realizing this shit will happen again in 3 months

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Trump cant wait 3 months for the attention, so he will find other justifications for threatening to carpet bomb the world with new tariffs. Because he's a fucking imbecile. 

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Posted

Great business environment when Coke and Pepsi have to grovel for breaks on aluminum tariffs and only the company with the most patronage wins. The market loves uncertainty; as do Fortune 1000 businesses. 

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Posted (edited)

So had to jump in a bit more.  I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward.  No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money.

Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius.  Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in.  NOW THAT would be of interest to me.  For obvious short reasons.

Hope you guys sold on the bounce! Got 10% of my $40K Unrealized gains I did not realize.  But UVIX covered calls are silly returns.

 

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
  On 4/10/2025 at 2:08 PM, horn4life said:

So had to jump in a bit more.  I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward.  No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money.

Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius.  Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in.

Hope you guys sold on the bounce!

 

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Randolph--look: 

image.thumb.png.fb3316007c14f0733426af025f5a2b36.png

 

YARN | Mortimer..We're back | Coming to America | Video ...

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Posted

Been on a lot of market update calls this week (and all the economists admit they have no idea what’s happening going forward) and the picture they are painting of Trump’s strategy can best be summed up by this scene:

 

 

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Posted

WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety.  And I can see getting really excited over a "win."  Especially when you thought you were going to be making big bank writing mortgages, writing deals with a 5 in the front of them.  So, I imagine there is a lot of stress for everyone in the RE business, especially lending.  Now you have potential buyers with less net worth in nearly every case than they had two weeks ago.  Risk is everywhere, and rates on the 30 year moved up?!?! 10 year not going where you thought.  That.s not side investment account money, that's how you make a living money.  So I give him a pass on getting so excited on seeing some real hope.  

I also like to hear from opposing views.  I also wish that when folks come to this thread they do insert at least a little bit of prediction, question or something  specific! beyond the obvious political aspects of this.  Hey, I got run over in covid as I was more of a newbie, and was stupidly not in the market a month before the VIX started moving.  As I was the first person talking about the impending doom as any bad info getting out of China means really bad. And I had a big stack in the bank looking to buy another flip house.  I got smoked as I came in late and the Fed saved the day.  I knew the Fed was unlikely to save on a disaster made by an individual, when the individual could change course.  I had the losses that educated me better on the Fed's powers.  

I sort of see the market as vacillating, getting the occasional move upwards but more of a slow drift downward.  

UNLESS - We have a slew of deals with a bunch of countries starting today and running through the weekend. It will be interesting to see.  Or will we see a weekend of Sunday News shows of mostly incoherence when it comes to the math?  If my calls expire OTM I will carry some positions through the weekend.

So how many deals inked by Next Wednesday?   Now that everyone that is negotiating with him knows who was the first to blink under pressure? Does that influence negotiating strategy, when your strategy was strength?  Or am I misreading that?  

 

 

 

*** What really sucks is we saw what could have been today regarding inflation.  What a fucking shame.

Posted

My investment strategy hasn't changed. Hold and add over time. I tried to be more active during COVID, but I would have been marginally better off just holding. I do adjust how much invest automatically each month. Right now, more is going to cash savings to leave dry powder. 

If I were a more active investor and had the time to actually manage things, if probably make a play on the volatility that I expect we see over the next few years. But for the most part I think a bunch of transactions, outside of strategic rebalancing, just results in churn for churn's sake.  

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Posted

I moved to cash save a very small amount (about 10%) at the end of January when you know who started flapping his goldfish mouth about tariffs.  I did a re-balance at the close Tuesday to move to 25% equities, 75% cash.  Who the hell knows what's going to happen?  I'll make more adds over time to get back to my normal 75% invested / 25% cash.  If the market is back where it was pre-tariffs by the time I reach that level, fine.  I come out ahead not worrying about this stuff when I go to bed at night.

At this point in my life / career, I'm not worried so much about return on capital; rather return of capital.

Posted
  On 4/10/2025 at 2:53 PM, horn4life said:

WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety.  And I can see getting really excited over a "win." 

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The best part was Wulaw acting like Trump bailing on everything he said he was going to do was some masterstroke of negotiation, rather than an tacit acknowledgement that he was on track to proper fuck the economy "like nobody's every seen before."  

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Posted
  On 4/10/2025 at 12:07 PM, royiv said:

Oh look, it’s Trump’s billionaire buddy and appointee to be the ambassador to Italy taking advantage of this market manipulation.

Billionaire casino owner Tilman Fertitta has taken advantage of a steep drop in the stock market by acquiring more shares of Wynn Resorts at close to its 52-week low.

According to an SEC filing released Tuesday afternoon, Feritta has acquired an additional 400,000 shares. Some 200,000 of the shares were acquired for $70.39; 100,000 shares at $70.30, and 100,000 shares at $67.62.

The date of the acquisition was April 4.

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Is Fertitta taking loans from the Teamsters' pension fund? Or borrowing off of the Rockets' value?

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Posted (edited)

So fuck - now I sort of have to pay attention to my positions.  Fucking rising so fast that Trump might completely surrender to Xi by this afternoon.  That would burn me again. 

  On 4/10/2025 at 4:17 PM, Firemans4Horn said:
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That was me at 4:30. Wife thought I was nuts, then I started buying.  

Already ran past my calls but if it holds 20% in two days?  Gotta like that.

Edited by horn4life
Posted

Oh... I was wondering what the push downward was.  House got step one of massive deficit budget bill one step closer forward.  One stupidity pulls slightly back as another strongly pushes forward to fuck up the economy.

So, is there any history on how economies perform over 4 years with a 35-40 VIX?

Posted

I was outside doing yard work for the past 2 hours jokingly thinking to myself, it would be funny if circuit breakers hit today. Id definitely put something in as we got close to 7%. But I needed to reseed part of my lawn so I missed it....

Posted
  On 4/10/2025 at 10:29 AM, horn4life said:

Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go  the manipulated rally.

Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn.  Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy.

Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we?  To match the meme administration.

The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning.  And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession.  I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well.  

-------------------------

THE BLOW BY BLOW

But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out.

I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back.  The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing.  I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it.

I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder.  So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar.  Went to look at tides and winds for Port A,  Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV...  Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit...  Then it fucking freezes.  So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed.  Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" 

My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond.  I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash?

I am upset but relieved.  And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful."  and "You still made us so much money!"  What a great fucking wife!  She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck!  What are you doing!"

Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red.  I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room.  Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it.  So another crisis averted.

-----------

Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months.  So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down.

Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow...

 

Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ

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Post your 1040 then.

Posted (edited)
  On 4/10/2025 at 4:24 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I figure I can post that or "We're fucking back, baby." every day for the next three months minimum.

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We should coordinate, so I can post this at closing those days.

we-suck-again-oh-no.gif

Edited by Goredho
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Posted

I was in NYC this week and had a meeting at Blackstone. Lots of investments are put on hold because of volatility. Funny enough on leaving I almost ran over Stephen Schwarzman coming out the elevator.  

The Sr. MD had to skip our meeting last minute because they were on the phone with PortCo CEO/CFOs all day/night trying to help game plan tariff mitigation.

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Posted

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 1:06 AM, UTGrad98 said:

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

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Your coupons are set the entire 30 years. 

You can sell it to someone before maturation as well. 

 

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Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 1:32 AM, Slacks said:

He has a lot of debt coming due on his own shit. That's the game. 

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plz man. This guy has a lizard brain surrounded by know nothing sycophants. Competent leaders would have a hard time driving rates down (which involves 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order thinking). He loves tariffs going back to the 80’s, campaigned on tariffs, and has been given free rein on tariffs by the eunuch run GOP Congress. 

Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 1:06 AM, UTGrad98 said:

Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.

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Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 1:45 AM, Slacks said:

Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

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Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

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Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 1:56 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

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That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 2:08 AM, Slacks said:

That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

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Since they really are aiming for the 1800's, back then interest rates were like 3-4 percent I think, so at least we got that going for us...

Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 2:08 AM, Slacks said:
That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

5% in your nominal annual payment. Just regular inflation of 2% (ha) would mean your purchasing power would be half as much in 20 years
Posted

Just saw yesterday April 9th this thread had more posts in 24 hours (177) than any other day in this thread's history, even beating out March 16th 2020 which was the previous high for posts. 

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Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 2:14 AM, babysdaddy said:


5% in your nominal annual payment. Just regular inflation of 2% (ha) would mean your purchasing power would be half as much in 20 years

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Well I'm pretty sure I've lost 20% in a month, so I'm not sure I can see 20 years out right now...

I'm in the push more into the market camp, but I also need to save for more ammo.

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Posted
  On 4/11/2025 at 2:21 AM, The Ace of Aces said:

What happens when the US dollar collapses, prices increase by 5%, we get a shortage of goods and the market is a heart rate look.

We’re about to find out. 

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Lost a bunch of EUR/USD trades this week, too. Was way up Sunday night... Then pow.

(Don't let a 16 year old trade without understanding tariff news)

Posted

Every single "crisis" has worked out to the upside with sufficient time horizon. The backstops are monetary policy and aircraft carriers. But maybe this time is different. 

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