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Posted
10 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Slacks said:

That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

Since they really are aiming for the 1800's, back then interest rates were like 3-4 percent I think, so at least we got that going for us...

Posted
That was my point about the 5% not being where I think the train would sit. 5% will mean nothing if we're at 1980s rates again... And it seems like 1980 (or 1880) is the goal for maga.

5% in your nominal annual payment. Just regular inflation of 2% (ha) would mean your purchasing power would be half as much in 20 years
Posted

Just saw yesterday April 9th this thread had more posts in 24 hours (177) than any other day in this thread's history, even beating out March 16th 2020 which was the previous high for posts. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:


5% in your nominal annual payment. Just regular inflation of 2% (ha) would mean your purchasing power would be half as much in 20 years

Well I'm pretty sure I've lost 20% in a month, so I'm not sure I can see 20 years out right now...

I'm in the push more into the market camp, but I also need to save for more ammo.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

What happens when the US dollar collapses, prices increase by 5%, we get a shortage of goods and the market is a heart rate look.

We’re about to find out. 

Lost a bunch of EUR/USD trades this week, too. Was way up Sunday night... Then pow.

(Don't let a 16 year old trade without understanding tariff news)

Posted
36 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Just saw yesterday April 9th this thread had more posts in 24 hours (177) than any other day in this thread's history, even beating out March 16th 2020 which was the previous high for posts. 


This is in the after-market

 

image.thumb.png.6f3f372318aa26d5e47614bbc8cbd3ff.png

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Posted
Just now, Anastasis said:

Every single "crisis" has worked out to the upside with sufficient time horizon. The backstops are monetary policy and aircraft carriers. But maybe this time is different. 


Smoot-Hawley lead to a 35% drop in GDP.  It was a less global world but I can’t see anything currently other than a self inflicted crises that negatively impacts Americans, American corporations, American O&G, treasuries, and the USD. We don’t exactly have a PHD in economics leading the charge. Ron Vara notwithstanding. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

We don’t exactly have a PHD in economics leading the charge.

Nor was the last.

Look best against it at your own peril. 

We are seeing market action where 30 minutes of movement reflects months in a normal environment. 

Make money on the volatility.

But get long over longer term, imo. 

Posted

Joe Biden wasn’t on the shitter tweeting out world changing economic policy minute by minute. Congress actually had a say in what we did. Hence the CHIP Act and Inflation reduction act. 
 

145% tariffs on China. Give me a break. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Slacks said:

Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

 

10 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

Came to post this. Even with normal inflation and the rapid cost of living increases, I don’t think 100k is going to give you the retirement you want/need. And that’s before you throw in the possibility of elder care for yourself (and not your kids). 

Posted (edited)

It's wild that the market bounced back after tariffs were effectively increased after the so-called "pause"

A weekend selloff feels more likely than not

Edited by Captainant
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's wild that the market bounced back after tariffs were effectively increased after the so-called "pause"

A weekend selloff feels more likely than not

Yeah as far as the 10 year I expect prob a +.03 today and then red .08-.10 come Monday. But as they say wish in one and shit in the other well now you got shit in one hand. 

Edited by UTPhil2006
Posted
Trump is threatening to put the tariffs back in place. 

Duh.
Listened to Kai Ryssdal this morning, and he is breaking form and really not holding back. And he’s also saying the obvious: most of the capital in the world is sidelining itself because it’s apparent that one man can upset the entire global economy on a whim, there is no discernible plan or path, and he is “at best, mercurial.” He will change his mind minute to minute, to accomplish…nobody knows. Our trade issues with China are real, but will take years to unwind. If he’s trying to accomplish that in weeks, it’s madness.
While money and business do some irrational things, on the whole, they at least require some certainty. And it is clear that the world’s largest economy will change course 180 degrees on one man’s whim, multiple times a week, even a day. So everyone just stays put, hunkers down, and works on their plan to weather the storm of insanity.
This is catastrophic, by the way. That’s not an overstatement.
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Posted

Well for one, we aren't even ACTUALLY collecting tariffs despite kicking the market in the gonads. So there hasn't been an ACTUAL financial hit yet, just the fear of one.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/customs-reports-glitch-in-system-used-by-freight-for-tariff-exemptions.html

So I wouldn't not call it a crisis, considering we can't even shoot ourselves in the dicks properly.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Read the fucking bond yields above.
It’s a crisis.

I asked AI and this is what I got back

Based on available data, the closest parallel to the current surge occurred in late September to early October 2023, when the 10-year yield jumped from about 4.1% to 4.8% in roughly two weeks—a roughly 70-basis-point increase. The current 10-day rise, estimated at around 50-60 basis points (from approximately 3.9% to 4.51%), is significant but slightly less intense in magnitude.

 

Posted
I asked AI and this is what I got back
Based on available data, the closest parallel to the current surge occurred in late September to early October 2023, when the 10-year yield jumped from about 4.1% to 4.8% in roughly two weeks—a roughly 70-basis-point increase. The current 10-day rise, estimated at around 50-60 basis points (from approximately 3.9% to 4.51%), is significant but slightly less intense in magnitude.
 

Add in the comparison to the rates for other countries’ debt.
Add in the market crash.
Add in the complete collapse of consumer confidence to levels not seen since 1952.
Add in the complete destruction of hundreds of thousands of American businesses built on our current trade environment.
And keep going. Fuck off with your bullshit.
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Posted

The drop in consumer sentiment and producer price index tells me everyone, across the board, is slamming their wallets shut and hunkering down. Combined with the bond flight, that screams recession to me. 
 

But what the fuck do I know. I was still equity heavy 6 weeks ago. 
Sponge Bob GIF

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


1-Add in the comparison to the rates for other countries’ debt.
2-Add in the market crash.
3-Add in the complete collapse of consumer confidence to levels not seen since 1952.
4-Add in the complete destruction of hundreds of thousands of American businesses built on our current trade environment.
5-And keep going. Fuck off with your bullshit.

Out of your points the most compelling in the stock market drop. It's been quick, but now we sit about 13% below S&P highs.

#1- Did you know that longer term interest rates are influenced heavily by short term rates. Those are central bank dependent. Any idea what the rates are for ECB and Bank of Canada? 

#3- Interesting datapoint, but a soft indicator historically

#4- Seems a bit hyperbolic. Things happened that fast?

#5- You're the one who answered with just bond yields. Sorry the historical data didn't support it.

FWIW it is obvious big changes are going to happen. I'm suspicious that it will all be declared a "crisis" in hindsight. If you are certain it will be then you should make some bets to profit off of it.

Posted

Love the casual hand wave as to…everything.
And ffs, on #4, that’s literally from business owners themselves. Incoming China trade is rapidly shutting down. No inventory, no business.
Nobody in the world except Ron Vara thinks we’re not in a crisis.

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Posted
I’m bullish right now short term. IMO we see a China deal in seven days or less. 

And what is your trust level that this man won’t reverse THAT within a week…or do something else equally unstable in a week, a day, or an hour? Is that trust level sufficient for you to make, say, a billion dollar investment in building a manufacturing facility?
This is the problem: not so much what he has done, but that he’s demonstrated that he will do all manners of irrational shit, with no warning or provocation, then change course in minutes, creating an environment with zero predictability. Capital hates that.
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I’m bullish right now short term. IMO we see a China deal in seven days or less. 

Agree. We're back to last Thursday level. I am existing SPY equity positions and just gonna ride July and Sept calls. Buying more BRK and dividend payers. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


And what is your trust level that this man won’t reverse THAT within a week…or do something else equally unstable in a week, a day, or an hour? Is that trust level sufficient for you to make, say, a billion dollar investment in building a manufacturing facility?
This is the problem: not so much what he has done, but that he’s demonstrated that he will do all manners of irrational shit, with no warning or provocation, then change course in minutes, creating an environment with zero predictability. Capital hates that.

I know it’s unbelievable to a lot on this board…but I trust.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

What are we basing it on?

They are basing it on normality bias. Or at least that’s what they’ve said. What I would like to hear is a *first principles* perspective in support of a bullish posture. 

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