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Posted
On 4/9/2025 at 7:11 PM, Blotto said:

Take AAPL for example, while their 15% recovery up to $200 today is a start, it was trading at $250 in february. My guess is doubling the cost of Iphones in the US is not a complaint he wants to hear constantly, and as they have greater than 50% market share it would be a constant complaint. Plus he probably drops about 3 Iphones in his toilet each week. OTM AAPL calls might be an interesting gamble as they would skyrocket if Trump does his buddy Tim Apple a solid. Maybe $220 or $225 AAPL calls for 5/16 expiry.

Anybody got other guesses as to who he would likely exempt? Tesla obviously, but they have bigger issues and I'm not sure it benefits them that much. Which CEOs that kiss his b-hole regularly import significantly from Gina?   

Lulz, so predictable

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-does-tim-apple-a-solid-investors-cheer-smartphone-tariff-exemption-despite-mixed-white-house-signals-124235436.html

Thanks for the double up, I guess. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

The only thing keeping Capitalism together is Wally's long positions.  Be strong, Wally!  Stay long!

If the admin hears of this he’ll be tabbed for the cabinet any minute. (No offense to Wally but it couldn’t be worse than what lutnick and Bessent are rolling out there)

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Posted
32 minutes ago, tokamak said:

So market-wise are we good now, barring any more random announcements/tweets?

We are just entering earnings season for Q1 now. The next few weeks will be interesting to hear both the forward guidance and executive comments on their faith in the economy moving forward. Assuming no new tariffs and that we dont bomb Iran or California soon, a constant refrain of lowered earnings forecasts or fears of a recession could still drive us lower. We are in unchartered waters of dipshittery. The tariff "exemption" announced today was phrased as lasting a month or two "to allow companies to reshore," as if semi fabs that require multi-billions in investments and years to build/qualify will all be humming along by July, lulz. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

We are just entering earnings season for Q1 now. The next few weeks will be interesting to hear both the forward guidance and executive comments on their faith in the economy moving forward. Assuming no new tariffs and that we dont bomb Iran or California soon, a constant refrain of lowered earnings forecasts or fears of a recession could still drive us lower. We are in unchartered waters of dipshittery. The tariff "exemption" announced today was phrased as lasting a month or two "to allow companies to reshore," as if semi fabs that require multi-billions in investments and years to build/qualify will all be humming along by July, lulz. 

No Cloak but seems like high profile executives at least will need to be very careful with their words, lest they invite retribution.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Parliament said:

The only thing keeping Capitalism together is Wally's long positions.  Be strong, Wally!  Stay long!

Holey Shit - if this is 5% true we are so fucked. I recently started working with a financial advisor, and have started a plan to move from direct equity investment into a structured product that gives limited equity returns (SPY, QQQ, Russell 3000, etc) and has downside protection. It is a 3-4 year plan. That currently has my direct equity currently limited to BRK and PRWAX, and SPY exists through the structured investments. And if course there are 3 stonks that remain, that today's just over 3%.

All that said, I'm a big believer in long, and have offered my oldest son a personal guarantee to downside risk for 5 years, but only if he stays in the markets and continues to contribute into equities. He turns 29 this years, and he is very nervous about putting money in now.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, tokamak said:

No Cloak but seems like high profile executives at least will need to be very careful with their words, lest they invite retribution.

Agreed, executives will be very hesistant to call out Trump by name, but if entire market segments all start bigly slashing earnings forecasts using generic comments  like "increased margin pressures, consumers reluctance to make major purchases, inflation,  etc..." they really don't have to say much else to drive the markets further down. The markets still carry a very high valuation by historical metrics.

image.thumb.png.b0a7c709143f36c612a40f5270b967a6.png

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

structured product that gives limited equity returns (SPY, QQQ, Russell 3000, etc) and has downside protection. It is a 3-4 year plan.

Go on.....  Indexed annuity or managed portfolio with option strategy?

Posted
14 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

Go on.....  Indexed annuity or managed portfolio with option strategy?

indexed annuity and a structured note that is tied to QQQ for one, and SPY for another, will do the managed portfolio if these work out. The products I am in have a cost of less than 1%, moving to managed portfolio doubles the cost and the risk. I started this move in July 2024, but took serious steps in late January/early Feb, so this rollercoaster is less worrysome to me. 

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Posted

Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future.  Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off.  It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican.

Wait...

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Posted
1 hour ago, Goredho said:

Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future.  Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off.  It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican.

Wait...

You say "the government" but it's really just one asshole. Sure, he's at the top of the government, but he fucking hates the IRS more than you do...

Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You say "the government" but it's really just one asshole. Sure, he's at the top of the government, but he fucking hates the IRS more than you do...

Yes, but it is a very large asshole, like a black hole with a huge gravitational pull l force that sucks in and destroys everything within it's sphere of influence

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Posted

So I am curious.  What do you think the over under is for trade deals for the Sunday news shows? With 70 countries in line, and Bessent tossing sweeteners today to the first one in....This will be 2-1/2 weeks since "liberation day?"  Despite claims of 70 countries calling and begging, will there be deals.  Or maybe two, from the smallest and weakest countries of all.  Mainly because Trump has shown himself to be weak.  Both strategically and with a steady retreat on his boldness.  So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions?  

SO HOW MANY TRADE DEALS BY THE SUNDAY SHOWS KIDS?  

 

 

 

Posted
6 hours ago, Goredho said:

Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future.  Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off.  It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican.

Wait...

Think of it as your contribution to the $30 million he has spent on security since January so that he can play golf. I mean, it would be terrible if something happened to him so we all need to do our part. 

Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So I am curious.  What do you think the over under is for trade deals for the Sunday news shows? With 70 countries in line, and Bessent tossing sweeteners today to the first one in....This will be 2-1/2 weeks since "liberation day?"  Despite claims of 70 countries calling and begging, will there be deals.  Or maybe two, from the smallest and weakest countries of all.  Mainly because Trump has shown himself to be weak.  Both strategically and with a steady retreat on his boldness.  So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions?  

SO HOW MANY TRADE DEALS BY THE SUNDAY SHOWS KIDS?  

 

 

 


The number of trade deals announced this week is almost certainly irrelevant to the market. Full blown tariff crisis is off the table. Fed has hinted at providing backstop. I would guess the lows are in, but I’m not placing any directional bets. 
 

You run the risk of letting your personal feelings and emotions ruin your gains from the last couple weeks.  
 

I’ve been there before. The market has to tank further. It’s doesn’t make any sense! And then you watch it move against you. 
 

 

Edited by Thomas Walsh
Posted
45 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:


The number of trade deals announced this week is almost certainly irrelevant to the market. Full blown tariff crisis is off the table. Fed has hinted at providing backstop. I would guess the lows are in, but I’m not placing any directional bets. 
 

You run the risk of letting your personal feelings and emotions ruin your gains from the last couple weeks.  
 

I’ve been there before. The market has to tank further. It’s doesn’t make any sense! And then you watch it move against you. 
 

 

I try to keep up with the markets and tariffs, and I really don't know where they all stand today.  Without Googling it, I think it's 10% worldwide, 145% China, except for computers and cell phones.  No auto tariff.  Think there is still 25% on aluminium and steel.  However, some of these may revert back to the Jimbo Fischer laminated rate chart in less than 90 days.  Some maybe sooner.

I guess my point is, you have to keep up with this shit on almost a daily basis, which is impossible for most people. Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

Maybe the stock market bottomed out already, but I don't think the economy has, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that all of this chaos isn't priced in. 

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner, I just simply won't close the deal if they increase over the already stupid list price. Businesses obviously have a different set of criteria, but at least for this consumer it is a pretty straightforward calculus. I am already skittish on their hybrid situation and the new drivetrain, so no real sweat if I just have to fall back to changing the oil on the 2023. 

Posted

I was able to close on a Lexus GX last week, so that I don’t have to worry about any tariffs. But if I were on a waiting list and the price went up, I’d just say eff it and walk away. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I was able to close on a Lexus GX last week, so that I don’t have to worry about any tariffs. But if I were on a waiting list and the price went up, I’d just say eff it and walk away. 

Exactly. 

55 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

UofMichigan Econ Professor saying the quiet part out loud. 
 

 

Prof should post his stock picks and positions in this thread. 

These guys blow hard on CNN but show me some returns or GTFO. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner, I just simply won't close the deal if they increase over the already stupid list price. Businesses obviously have a different set of criteria, but at least for this consumer it is a pretty straightforward calculus. I am already skittish on their hybrid situation and the new drivetrain, so no real sweat if I just have to fall back to changing the oil on the 2023. 

I don’t know if you’re referring to something specific about the 4Runner, but Toyota in general has the hybrid drivetrain down to an exact science. If you can believe it, Consumer Reports rates them as more long-term reliable than ICE engines alone or EVs. 

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Posted

Speaking of ever changing rules - not knowing who’s getting hit with a tariff next makes it really fucking hard to find new suppliers. Right now it’s China - next week who is the president going to be mad at? Keep in mind, it’s not when you order - it’s when your order ships that the tariff is applied. So, we could order today from Turkey and it ships in 6 weeks and boom - that’s when he applies a higher tariff to Turkey.

I don’t see how anyone can do any business beyond what is on their shelves right now. Even if you put a new “tariff” charge line, you’re not guaranteed anything because your competitors could have ordered a day later and gotten a better tariff rate.

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Posted
22 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Holey Shit - if this is 5% true we are so fucked. I recently started working with a financial advisor, and have started a plan to move from direct equity investment into a structured product that gives limited equity returns (SPY, QQQ, Russell 3000, etc) and has downside protection. It is a 3-4 year plan. That currently has my direct equity currently limited to BRK and PRWAX, and SPY exists through the structured investments. And if course there are 3 stonks that remain, that today's just over 3%.

All that said, I'm a big believer in long, and have offered my oldest son a personal guarantee to downside risk for 5 years, but only if he stays in the markets and continues to contribute into equities. He turns 29 this years, and he is very nervous about putting money in now.

Interesting- walk me through why you are protecting his downside? I’m trying to teach my daughters that we make money investing because we are literally being paid to accept someone’s risk, and therefore to get comfortable with losing sometimes. Do you think your son can learn that with you protecting his downside?

21 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

indexed annuity and a structured note that is tied to QQQ for one, and SPY for another, will do the managed portfolio if these work out. The products I am in have a cost of less than 1%, moving to managed portfolio doubles the cost and the risk. I started this move in July 2024, but took serious steps in late January/early Feb, so this rollercoaster is less worrysome to me. 

Indeed- curious what you get from this approach that you couldn’t get from the many buffered ETFs out there? 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Interesting- walk me through why you are protecting his downside? I’m trying to teach my daughters that we make money investing because we are literally being paid to accept someone’s risk, and therefore to get comfortable with losing sometimes. Do you think your son can learn that with you protecting his downside?

Indeed- curious what you get from this approach that you couldn’t get from the many buffered ETFs out there? 

It is an annuity, so I assume the answer to that question is: income

Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, horn4life said:

So I am curious.  … So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions?  

 

 

I think you answered your own question 

*edit* herp derp, read your post too fast. I see what you did there now

Edited by B00M
I r dum
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Posted (edited)

Meant to post earlier, but my thesis is still the same.  When I ask, How many deals by the weekend?  I ask it because we retreated, and kicked the can down the road for 90 days.  My assertion is the ask is too big, and the retreat too damn quick to get any deals quickly, unless its from partners so weak is will be meaningless.  I think this is going to now be a slow descent.  Slow brutal and gradual.  

I will say I forgot PLTR's earning were today.  Glad I dumped my puts on Friday, that would have been very expensive.    I took a small bath the last few days.  but big swings I am getting used to. It's staying the course longer term.  There is definitely some "Vegas Mentality" where you are playing on 'house money" and your risk aversion is much less.  So numbers that would have freaked me 2 months ago, are simply swings of a meme administration.  We honestly have not see ANY of the bad result of this stupidity,  But it is coming.  the drag on earnings and forward guidance are coming.  And why would China negotiate with us?  We are like an Army in disarray, just sit back and let the strategic mistakes of your opponent play out.  If I was Xi that's what I would do.

You know what is sad. I want so bad to be long!   But you guys let me know, when the destruction of US household wealth, is worth the shock and awe plan to get folks to the table?  Add listen to what the Administration tells you is happening, versus what is actually happening.  I think to most folks outside the US, it appears we honestly do not know what to do smartly to get to the place we want on trade or tariffs.

Hope I am wrong for all of you that are long.  But right now... I only see confusion, and lack of clarity, for like... months...?

 

Edited by horn4life
Posted
12 hours ago, tokamak said:

I don’t know if you’re referring to something specific about the 4Runner, but Toyota in general has the hybrid drivetrain down to an exact science. If you can believe it, Consumer Reports rates them as more long-term reliable than ICE engines alone or EVs. 

I’ve got a hybrid Camry. Love it. 50mpg in Hawaii is a big deal with the gas prices out here. I’ll drive this thing until it dies, so I may die first. 

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