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Posted
1 hour ago, Goredho said:

Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future.  Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off.  It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican.

Wait...

You say "the government" but it's really just one asshole. Sure, he's at the top of the government, but he fucking hates the IRS more than you do...

Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You say "the government" but it's really just one asshole. Sure, he's at the top of the government, but he fucking hates the IRS more than you do...

Yes, but it is a very large asshole, like a black hole with a huge gravitational pull l force that sucks in and destroys everything within it's sphere of influence

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Posted

So I am curious.  What do you think the over under is for trade deals for the Sunday news shows? With 70 countries in line, and Bessent tossing sweeteners today to the first one in....This will be 2-1/2 weeks since "liberation day?"  Despite claims of 70 countries calling and begging, will there be deals.  Or maybe two, from the smallest and weakest countries of all.  Mainly because Trump has shown himself to be weak.  Both strategically and with a steady retreat on his boldness.  So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions?  

SO HOW MANY TRADE DEALS BY THE SUNDAY SHOWS KIDS?  

 

 

 

Posted
6 hours ago, Goredho said:

Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future.  Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off.  It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican.

Wait...

Think of it as your contribution to the $30 million he has spent on security since January so that he can play golf. I mean, it would be terrible if something happened to him so we all need to do our part. 

Posted
45 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:


The number of trade deals announced this week is almost certainly irrelevant to the market. Full blown tariff crisis is off the table. Fed has hinted at providing backstop. I would guess the lows are in, but I’m not placing any directional bets. 
 

You run the risk of letting your personal feelings and emotions ruin your gains from the last couple weeks.  
 

I’ve been there before. The market has to tank further. It’s doesn’t make any sense! And then you watch it move against you. 
 

 

I try to keep up with the markets and tariffs, and I really don't know where they all stand today.  Without Googling it, I think it's 10% worldwide, 145% China, except for computers and cell phones.  No auto tariff.  Think there is still 25% on aluminium and steel.  However, some of these may revert back to the Jimbo Fischer laminated rate chart in less than 90 days.  Some maybe sooner.

I guess my point is, you have to keep up with this shit on almost a daily basis, which is impossible for most people. Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

Maybe the stock market bottomed out already, but I don't think the economy has, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that all of this chaos isn't priced in. 

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner, I just simply won't close the deal if they increase over the already stupid list price. Businesses obviously have a different set of criteria, but at least for this consumer it is a pretty straightforward calculus. I am already skittish on their hybrid situation and the new drivetrain, so no real sweat if I just have to fall back to changing the oil on the 2023. 

Posted

I was able to close on a Lexus GX last week, so that I don’t have to worry about any tariffs. But if I were on a waiting list and the price went up, I’d just say eff it and walk away. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I was able to close on a Lexus GX last week, so that I don’t have to worry about any tariffs. But if I were on a waiting list and the price went up, I’d just say eff it and walk away. 

Exactly. 

55 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

UofMichigan Econ Professor saying the quiet part out loud. 
 

 

Prof should post his stock picks and positions in this thread. 

These guys blow hard on CNN but show me some returns or GTFO. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner, I just simply won't close the deal if they increase over the already stupid list price. Businesses obviously have a different set of criteria, but at least for this consumer it is a pretty straightforward calculus. I am already skittish on their hybrid situation and the new drivetrain, so no real sweat if I just have to fall back to changing the oil on the 2023. 

I don’t know if you’re referring to something specific about the 4Runner, but Toyota in general has the hybrid drivetrain down to an exact science. If you can believe it, Consumer Reports rates them as more long-term reliable than ICE engines alone or EVs. 

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Posted

Speaking of ever changing rules - not knowing who’s getting hit with a tariff next makes it really fucking hard to find new suppliers. Right now it’s China - next week who is the president going to be mad at? Keep in mind, it’s not when you order - it’s when your order ships that the tariff is applied. So, we could order today from Turkey and it ships in 6 weeks and boom - that’s when he applies a higher tariff to Turkey.

I don’t see how anyone can do any business beyond what is on their shelves right now. Even if you put a new “tariff” charge line, you’re not guaranteed anything because your competitors could have ordered a day later and gotten a better tariff rate.

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Posted
22 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Holey Shit - if this is 5% true we are so fucked. I recently started working with a financial advisor, and have started a plan to move from direct equity investment into a structured product that gives limited equity returns (SPY, QQQ, Russell 3000, etc) and has downside protection. It is a 3-4 year plan. That currently has my direct equity currently limited to BRK and PRWAX, and SPY exists through the structured investments. And if course there are 3 stonks that remain, that today's just over 3%.

All that said, I'm a big believer in long, and have offered my oldest son a personal guarantee to downside risk for 5 years, but only if he stays in the markets and continues to contribute into equities. He turns 29 this years, and he is very nervous about putting money in now.

Interesting- walk me through why you are protecting his downside? I’m trying to teach my daughters that we make money investing because we are literally being paid to accept someone’s risk, and therefore to get comfortable with losing sometimes. Do you think your son can learn that with you protecting his downside?

21 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

indexed annuity and a structured note that is tied to QQQ for one, and SPY for another, will do the managed portfolio if these work out. The products I am in have a cost of less than 1%, moving to managed portfolio doubles the cost and the risk. I started this move in July 2024, but took serious steps in late January/early Feb, so this rollercoaster is less worrysome to me. 

Indeed- curious what you get from this approach that you couldn’t get from the many buffered ETFs out there? 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Interesting- walk me through why you are protecting his downside? I’m trying to teach my daughters that we make money investing because we are literally being paid to accept someone’s risk, and therefore to get comfortable with losing sometimes. Do you think your son can learn that with you protecting his downside?

Indeed- curious what you get from this approach that you couldn’t get from the many buffered ETFs out there? 

It is an annuity, so I assume the answer to that question is: income

Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, horn4life said:

So I am curious.  … So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions?  

 

 

I think you answered your own question 

*edit* herp derp, read your post too fast. I see what you did there now

Edited by B00M
I r dum
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Posted (edited)

Meant to post earlier, but my thesis is still the same.  When I ask, How many deals by the weekend?  I ask it because we retreated, and kicked the can down the road for 90 days.  My assertion is the ask is too big, and the retreat too damn quick to get any deals quickly, unless its from partners so weak is will be meaningless.  I think this is going to now be a slow descent.  Slow brutal and gradual.  

I will say I forgot PLTR's earning were today.  Glad I dumped my puts on Friday, that would have been very expensive.    I took a small bath the last few days.  but big swings I am getting used to. It's staying the course longer term.  There is definitely some "Vegas Mentality" where you are playing on 'house money" and your risk aversion is much less.  So numbers that would have freaked me 2 months ago, are simply swings of a meme administration.  We honestly have not see ANY of the bad result of this stupidity,  But it is coming.  the drag on earnings and forward guidance are coming.  And why would China negotiate with us?  We are like an Army in disarray, just sit back and let the strategic mistakes of your opponent play out.  If I was Xi that's what I would do.

You know what is sad. I want so bad to be long!   But you guys let me know, when the destruction of US household wealth, is worth the shock and awe plan to get folks to the table?  Add listen to what the Administration tells you is happening, versus what is actually happening.  I think to most folks outside the US, it appears we honestly do not know what to do smartly to get to the place we want on trade or tariffs.

Hope I am wrong for all of you that are long.  But right now... I only see confusion, and lack of clarity, for like... months...?

 

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
12 hours ago, tokamak said:

I don’t know if you’re referring to something specific about the 4Runner, but Toyota in general has the hybrid drivetrain down to an exact science. If you can believe it, Consumer Reports rates them as more long-term reliable than ICE engines alone or EVs. 

I’ve got a hybrid Camry. Love it. 50mpg in Hawaii is a big deal with the gas prices out here. I’ll drive this thing until it dies, so I may die first. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:

I’ve got a hybrid Camry. Love it. 50mpg in Hawaii is a big deal with the gas prices out here. I’ll drive this thing until it dies, so I may die first. 


Jesus dude, you expecting that thing to last 50 years? You scheduling heavy drug use in your future? It’s a Camry, dawg. You’ve got this. 

Edited by B00M
Posted
9 minutes ago, B00M said:


Jesus dude, you expecting that thing to last 50 years? You scheduling heavy drug use in your future? It’s a Camry, dawg. You’ve got this. 

Hyperbole, they do be lasting a long ass time though. TBD on the drugs

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Posted
On 4/14/2025 at 8:55 PM, Anastasis said:

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner, I just simply won't close the deal if they increase over the already stupid list price. Businesses obviously have a different set of criteria, but at least for this consumer it is a pretty straightforward calculus. I am already skittish on their hybrid situation and the new drivetrain, so no real sweat if I just have to fall back to changing the oil on the 2023. 

If I did not need to tow this is where I would be looking.  BUT --- I am also NEVER going to buy the first year of a new transmission or engine.  Engineers are brilliant. But my I went for 6 speed tranny in my 2020 Silverado and my BIL got the new 10 speed... thank GOD he bought an extended warranty.  $14K replacement... at 57K if my memory is correct.  I just don't trust shit until it's in the field a year or two.  Early Ford Turbo F-150 comes to mind as well on early issues. But after the shake out, a good design. IMHO

 

Posted
22 minutes ago, horn4life said:

If I did not need to tow this is where I would be looking.  BUT --- I am also NEVER going to buy the first year of a new transmission or engine.

Yeah, 2024 Tacomas with the same drivetrain have had some issues. Mostly trans related if I understand correctly. I think that they have things sorted, but that is the concern. 

Posted
On 4/5/2025 at 7:53 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I can’t wait to find out how @52-80 navigated this crash and the eventual recovery with perfect market timing… weeks after the dust settles of course.  Our resident simp has been very quiet lately. 

Passive eetirement account is -100bps behind SPX. Trading account is +300bps ahead due to FX futures (VX futures flat YTD).  Spent the last 4 weeks around Europe with extended family while you spent it thinking about me.  Miss you too bb 🤗

Posted
On 2/18/2025 at 2:38 PM, 52-80 said:

im not meaningfully invested until after tax season.  just swing trading commodities and other futures

 

On 3/2/2025 at 3:04 PM, 52-80 said:

No equity longs until after tax season

 

what could he have possibly meant by this? its a complete riddle. 

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Posted
On 4/15/2025 at 2:49 AM, Colonel Sanders said:

I guess my point is, you have to keep up with this shit on almost a daily basis, which is impossible for most people. Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

Maybe the stock market bottomed out already, but I don't think the economy has, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that all of this chaos isn't priced in. 

If you believe that big consumer retailers are economic bellwethers, and they have good insights, insider access, and/or influence:

-Walmart just last week cited tariff uncertainty, but reiterated its previous forward guidance for annual sales growth

-Target expects Q1 pressure, but reiterated FY flat sales, with even small increase in margin. This was said in March, and their next earnings call is in 1mo

-Costco didn't guide on earnings, but still plans to grow #warehouses in the US.  This was early March, and only 1/3rd of their goods are imported

Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

If you believe that big consumer retailers are economic bellwethers, and they have good insights, insider access, and/or influence:

-Walmart just last week cited tariff uncertainty, but reiterated its previous forward guidance for annual sales growth

-Target expects Q1 pressure, but reiterated FY flat sales, with even small increase in margin. This was said in March, and their next earnings call is in 1mo

-Costco didn't guide on earnings, but still plans to grow #warehouses in the US.  This was early March, and only 1/3rd of their goods are imported

Maybe so.  However, I think they're all reporting Q2 earnings in May. I would be more interested to see earnings and guidance there, rather than from a month before Liberation Day.  

Posted
3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Passive eetirement account is -100bps behind SPX. Trading account is +300bps ahead due to FX futures (VX futures flat YTD).  Spent the last 4 weeks around Europe with extended family while you spent it thinking about me.  Miss you too bb 🤗

Markets calm down, simp returns. As expected. 

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Posted
On 4/14/2025 at 7:55 PM, Anastasis said:

Just speaking for myself, and as a person at the top of the waitlist at CP toyota for a 2025 TRDPro 4runner

Random thought: I bought the same car but a year ago, so 2024 model. Love it, highly recommend. Components well tested. The 2025s are notably larger, approaching something like Tahoe size (downside for some of what I do - if I wanted a full sized SUV, I'd get a full sized SUV; I find myself annoyed that Toyota went this direction). Plus the 2025s are kind of ugly IMO. 

Posted
37 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Random thought: I bought the same car but a year ago, so 2024 model. Love it, highly recommend. Components well tested. The 2025s are notably larger, approaching something like Tahoe size (downside for some of what I do - if I wanted a full sized SUV, I'd get a full sized SUV; I find myself annoyed that Toyota went this direction). Plus the 2025s are kind of ugly IMO. 

A few inches longer and wider (twss) than the 5th gen, but still much shorter than the Tahoe (16" longer and 3" wider than the 6th gen 4runner). I hear your opinion on the styling. I love my 2023 ORP, but it looks very dated inside and out to me.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Pre-market looking ugly.

Wouldnt shock me to see it up 2% on the day or down 2%. The big trading algorithms having a field day in these conditions. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

A few inches longer and wider (twss) than the 5th gen, but still much shorter than the Tahoe (16" longer and 3" wider than the 6th gen 4runner). I hear your opinion on the styling. I love my 2023 ORP, but it looks very dated inside and out to me.

Fair enough. I very much like the older styling, and the few inches here and there make a big difference to me (lots of time on backcountry trails and off roading in tight places). 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Wouldnt shock me to see it up 2% on the day or down 2%. The big trading algorithms having a field day in these conditions. 

Could see both of these before noon lol/ 

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, LTbear said:

Fair enough. I very much like the older styling, and the few inches here and there make a big difference to me (lots of time on backcountry trails and off roading in tight places). 

Yep, totally get it. Trying to convince my wife to keep the 2023 if I do pull the trigger. That thing will go 200k on nothing but oil changes and basic maintenance. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Posted
2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Wouldnt shock me to see it up 2% on the day or down 2%. The big trading algorithms having a field day in these conditions. 

 

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Could see both of these before noon lol/ 

I saw a stat lately that the consecutive intraday swings like we’re seeing only happen in the big market events like 2020, 2008 and 1987. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

 

I saw a stat lately that the consecutive intraday swings like we’re seeing only happen in the big market events like 2020, 2008 and 1987. 

So we've got that going for us.

Posted
2 hours ago, LTbear said:

Fair enough. I very much like the older styling, and the few inches here and there make a big difference to me (lots of time on backcountry trails and off roading in tight places). 

That is ALSO what she said. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, tokamak said:

JPow gonna get himself fired.

The monthly fed policy updates are gonna rock the fuck out when the motor city madman is calling the shots. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

The monthly fed policy updates are gonna rock the fuck out when the motor city madman is calling the shots. 

Saw what you want, but the guitar tone on Stanglehold is pretty bitchin

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