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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

That's a fools errand from you data science team.  Supply chain data is laggy and non-deterministic at best.  They need to be looking at market level, proxy data, looking at the correlations of the industry the business is in to the demand signals for their products, and building derived variables to supplement the credit risk modeling they're doing.  

TBH data-wise it's not much different. If you're taking in 3rd and 4th order sources of information that layer on analysis, you're introducing a ton of bias into your data. Focusing on raw market data will lead to a more durable model that operates on first principles - but it also takes more training time to build that foundation of knowledge.

There is some very interesting work around using LLMs to conduct enterprise-wide sentiment analysis to wholly analyze the totality of a company's communications and filings, official and unofficial. The idea is that it will give a more comprehensive view of their self-assessment, which is a very useful asset in planning

Edited by Captainant
Posted
38 minutes ago, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

That's a fools errand from you data science team.  Supply chain data is laggy and non-deterministic at best.  They need to be looking at market level, proxy data, looking at the correlations of the industry the business is in to the demand signals for their products, and building derived variables to supplement the credit risk modeling they're doing.  

Yeah, until next week.  I appreciate the post, but the point isn't the details of what we should be doing, the point is that we and everyone else have had their business upended based on the capricious economic policies of someone who thinks they are smarter than Warren Buffet, Jerome Powell and every other banker /economist.  Instead of focusing on how to best serve our customers, we are having to focus on how best to serve the governmental intrusion into our business for some end that does not help our business or our customers.  That is multiplied across every business in the country.  It does not appear to be going away anytime soon.  What effect does that government-induced waste have on a market, economy and currency of the host nation?

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yeah, until next week.  I appreciate the post, but the point isn't the details of what we should be doing, the point is that we and everyone else have had their business upended based on the capricious economic policies of someone who thinks they are smarter than Warren Buffet, Jerome Powell and every other banker /economist.  Instead of focusing on how to best serve our customers, we are having to focus on how best to serve the governmental intrusion into our business for some end that does not help our business or our customers.  That is multiplied across every business in the country.  It does not appear to be going away anytime soon.  What effect does that government-induced waste have on a market, economy and currency of the host nation?

I get it.  Was just passing it along from a super senior data science practitioner that's also worked in fintech in the past.  In fact - I was one of the people summoned to DC by the newly founded CFPB to talk about fintech underwriting & business practices.  Bear in mind the CFPB intrusion was warranted by this particular business but that's a different story for a different day.  

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yeah, until next week.  I appreciate the post, but the point isn't the details of what we should be doing, the point is that we and everyone else have had their business upended based on the capricious economic policies of someone who thinks they are smarter than Warren Buffet, Jerome Powell and every other banker /economist.  Instead of focusing on how to best serve our customers, we are having to focus on how best to serve the governmental intrusion into our business for some end that does not help our business or our customers.  That is multiplied across every business in the country.  It does not appear to be going away anytime soon.  What effect does that government-induced waste have on a market, economy and currency of the host nation?

So you can't make as many deals, your client can't make as many deals. Wonder if that will come into play in the coming months profits? 😉

Saw the first little stickiness of unemployment. And was strong consumer spending a plus on forward momentum? Or a rush to push future planned consumption forward in time to avoid tariffs?  I know two friends who did just that on cars they were contemplating, but pulled trigger for fear of price increases.

On the long side of the coin, a deal would spike the markets.  Hell the content of the deal would not matter at all, just a deal.  Some sort of forward movement indicating a light at the end of the tunnel, regarding stable predictability. So if I am the WH, I give Japan a great deal saying there deal was ONLY because they were first in.  When the reality might well be... we gotta get a deal... any deal.  Doesn't matter how you get to point B, the market wil love it.  As the details are looked at, against the premises initially stated and making these tariffs a national emergency?  I doubt the math is reflective of that, which will take a lot longer for the market to digest.

Anyhow interesting times of unpredictability we live in.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Captainant said:

TBH data-wise it's not much different. If you're taking in 3rd and 4th order sources of information that layer on analysis, you're introducing a ton of bias into your data. Focusing on raw market data will lead to a more durable model that operates on first principles - but it also takes more training time to build that foundation of knowledge.

There is some very interesting work around using LLMs to conduct enterprise-wide sentiment analysis to wholly analyze the totality of a company's communications and filings, official and unofficial. The idea is that it will give a more comprehensive view of their self-assessment, which is a very useful asset in planning

Quick second post.  Forgot about double quoting.

Yes & no.  That's why I did caveat my statement by stating they are proxy data sources and not raw data sources.  Comms, regardless of any level, are notoriously worse at introducing truth bias (I.E. people trying to use twitter data for multiple years only to realize it was just a bunch of bots).  From a data science lense, it will all boil down to the EDA, data quality, methodology, etc.  

Posted
14 minutes ago, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

I get it.  Was just passing it along from a super senior data science practitioner that's also worked in fintech in the past.  In fact - I was one of the people summoned to DC by the newly founded CFPB to talk about fintech underwriting & business practices.  Bear in mind the CFPB intrusion was warranted by this particular business but that's a different story for a different day.  

Thanks, it's appreciated.

Posted
21 minutes ago, horn4life said:

On the long side of the coin, a deal would spike the markets.  Hell the content of the deal would not matter at all, just a deal.  Some sort of forward movement indicating a light at the end of the tunnel, regarding stable predictability. So if I am the WH, I give Japan a great deal saying there deal was ONLY because they were first in.  When the reality might well be... we gotta get a deal... any deal.  Doesn't matter how you get to point B, the market wil love it.  As the details are looked at, against the premises initially stated and making these tariffs a national emergency?  I doubt the math is reflective of that, which will take a lot longer for the market to digest.

Anyhow interesting times of unpredictability we live in.

I tend to agree with you there.  A deal, any deal, would be enough to calm a lot of fears and get a lot of investors off the ledge.  But I'm not sure that's going to do anything but extend the runway of an irrational market.  We all feel sorta safe again, but all businesses are left having to focus on implementing one-off behaviors to account for every tariff deal we make with every country.  That's time and money that's not going towards the core mission of the business, but to react to the governmental terraforming of the world's economic landscape.  That's not a good context for actual growth of the business.

Longer term, I still think we are risking our standing as the economic Sun that the rest of the world orbits around.  Tariff deals will be made short term because they have to, but even Japan is right now looking at strategies to eliminate our ability to shake down their economy.  How do I know this?  Because they are not fucking morons.  They have a self-interest to serve.

I am pretty intrigued by Europe as an investment opportunity.  The EU is collectively the world's 3rd largest economy.  Their governments, especially Germany, are starting to invest heavily in things they took for granted from the U.S. commitment to NATO.  The US (largest economy) and China (2nd largest economy) are engaged in an economic war and will bloody each other's markets/economies.  Both will try to enlist the EU as an economic ally and/or to deny them to the opposition as an economic ally.  The EU may decide who "wins" the tariff wars by who they embrace.  Or if they can successfully not have to embrace either at the exclusion of the other, they may wind up being number 1 after the US and China kneecap each other.

This is totally some Dunning-Kruger armchair economist analysis informed mostly by a Game Of Thrones polisci education, but I am curious if anyone else with a more informed opinion might see validity to this thinking?  Feel free to tell me to stfu and stick to things I actually know something about.

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Posted
38 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

Been saying for months if not year + that sell Google (e.g. Alphabet) as the regulatory action will crush their stock. Seeing FANG be de--fanged even by the Trump admin.

Username checks out. You been saving that one?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Image

Many think that Powell (& others) has performed a masterful job in dealing with the post-COVID economy. Not perfect and after-the-fact analysis can point out issues. But how if Powell supposed to deal with a trade strategy that varies by the day. And the variance is something never before seen.

No CR but nothing worse than someone who continually threatens to fire someone, terminate a deal or sue. If you want to take an action, then do so but stop with the threats.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted
3 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

The grift is so brazen that we’re all numb to it. 
 

cd9e7fa7-2d7b-4c2c-b814-56911c37d8c5.png.acf538bc7061683ff348137232c86dae.png

No worries, investors. The Emoluments Clause of the US Constitution should put a stop to any corruption by the Executive.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Dow only down 527. A good day. 

That drop was almost solely related to a now multi year trend in increased medical utilization and spending among seniors. The DJI is a funny index. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

That drop was almost solely related to a now multi year trend in increased medical utilization and spending among seniors. The DJI is a funny index. 

antiquated, the DJIA is antiquated. That is a correct statement.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

antiquated, the DJIA is antiquated. That is a correct statement.

 

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

but it dropped today. 

And yet, when enough people think that the market is going bad and the economy in the future is going to be bad, the collective will can turn into a recession, whether or not the underlying factors warrant it.

It makes no difference if the people who do not want to order more goods or buy more things because of fear of a bad economic downturn in the future is correct, the fear that things are going to be bad is just as valid as the accuracy of things going bad.

I think that everyone is convinced we are going to have a recession - and so we will. 

 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

And yet, when enough people think that the market is going bad and the economy in the future is going to be bad, the collective will can turn into a recession, whether or not the underlying factors warrant it.

It makes no difference if the people who do not want to order more goods or buy more things because of fear of a bad economic downturn in the future is correct, the fear that things are going to be bad is just as valid as the accuracy of things going bad.

I think that everyone is convinced we are going to have a recession - and so we will. 

 

a lot of words to tell us that just don't know how the DJI works. It's ok. It was a stupid post, even in this fraught environment. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Does the market trade today?  Gotta know if I need to preheat my crack pipe.

US and European equity, commodity, and bond markets closed. Tokyo, Shanghai and street drug markets all open on normal hours. 

On 4/16/2025 at 1:33 PM, Royalfan5 said:

Saw what you want, but the guitar tone on Stanglehold is pretty bitchin

I celebrate Ted Nugents entire catalog

Posted
8 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

 

And yet, when enough people think that the market is going bad and the economy in the future is going to be bad, the collective will can turn into a recession, whether or not the underlying factors warrant it.

It makes no difference if the people who do not want to order more goods or buy more things because of fear of a bad economic downturn in the future is correct, the fear that things are going to be bad is just as valid as the accuracy of things going bad.

I think that everyone is convinced we are going to have a recession - and so we will. 

Right now I think you honestly have sort of the opposite effect going on right now.  Youo have shit ton of folks that really, really want to believe, that the roaring economy they predicted a few months ago will come to fruition.  It might.  All the trade deals might get done, interest rates will fall, and there could be no inflation from tariffs, and the near universal scrub off of value to 401K's will be quickly forgotten.  This is an absolute possibility.

To be honest though I am a contrarian.  I tend to look for the worst case scenario, try to account for that, then go forward.  

I do not think that the stock market has fully accounted for how the tariffs are going to affect a multitude of areas. And a lot of the effects will be more gradual, but slow and steady.  I also think there is some simple psychology involved, in that most folks investing today have not see serious downturns in the economy.  Most haven't seen the collapse of the energy sector and the destruction of Houston, now the Home market collapse with mass foreclosures and destruction across the board of property values.  So those thoughts are completely alien to a lot of investors (people in general.)

Anyhow I think we still have an overly optimistic investor class right now.  Hell I want to believe too!  I like being able to bet on companies I feel will profit going foward, and increase their profits and thus stock price.  I see opportunities to trade a lot right now, but I am having a tougher time finding stocks to truly invest in? MP is sort of a good example for me.  A company I think/thought should benefit from a more insular policy regarding rare minerals.  But did it went up a hair down a hair and then drifted downward.  Peter Thiel  joins the board, stock gets a nice bounce.  A bounce big enough to get the stock price back to where I originally bought in, before my stop losses bounced it.  But off the bounce the stock pulled back and it would still be a loser for me.  But it SHOULD be a good stock in the Trump Economy.  But it too is directionless because of unpredictability, at least short term.

Anyhow my views are pretty clear now, I simply do not think we have seen the worst of things.  I could VERY EASILY be wrong.  Optimism could overrun me.  

BUT... I see gradual inflation, gradual rise in unemployment rolls, and a Fed handcuffed by unpredictable government policy.  I mean think about it.  We came about 10 hours from the market going free fall, before Trumps reversed course.  Bessent was thrilled that the markets still were operational!?!?!  But we had to get that close for reality to get through?  That is sort of scary to me. 

Anyhow I really, really want to go long.  I just do not think we have seen the bottom yet.  And hell, if I am wrong, I only lose house money at this point.  But over  the 90 day stoppage, the effects of tariff disruption are going to be more and more apparent.  And then the word "transitory" will be the word drinking game that will get you faced out of your mind.

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Posted

I live in Sioux Falls, a city that has had strong growth for like 30 years.  (We are the Austin of the nothern plains.)

City government gets most of its revenue from sales tax.  2025 budget was for 6% YoY growth.  I presume that growth assumption was a rather pragmatic, as I see our government as pragmatic in general.

So we say January sales tax numbers this week.  6% growth budgeted.  0.1% actual.  Just January.  Folks just tightening up in anticipation of tariff inflation.  Woof.

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Posted
1 hour ago, horn4life said:

Right now I think you honestly have sort of the opposite effect going on right now.  Youo have shit ton of folks that really, really want to believe, that the roaring economy they predicted a few months ago will come to fruition.  It might.  All the trade deals might get done, interest rates will fall, and there could be no inflation from tariffs, and the near universal scrub off of value to 401K's will be quickly forgotten.  This is an absolute possibility.

To be honest though I am a contrarian.  I tend to look for the worst case scenario, try to account for that, then go forward.  

I do not think that the stock market has fully accounted for how the tariffs are going to affect a multitude of areas. And a lot of the effects will be more gradual, but slow and steady.  I also think there is some simple psychology involved, in that most folks investing today have not see serious downturns in the economy.  Most haven't seen the collapse of the energy sector and the destruction of Houston, now the Home market collapse with mass foreclosures and destruction across the board of property values.  So those thoughts are completely alien to a lot of investors (people in general.)

Anyhow I think we still have an overly optimistic investor class right now.  Hell I want to believe too!  I like being able to bet on companies I feel will profit going foward, and increase their profits and thus stock price.  I see opportunities to trade a lot right now, but I am having a tougher time finding stocks to truly invest in? MP is sort of a good example for me.  A company I think/thought should benefit from a more insular policy regarding rare minerals.  But did it went up a hair down a hair and then drifted downward.  Peter Thiel  joins the board, stock gets a nice bounce.  A bounce big enough to get the stock price back to where I originally bought in, before my stop losses bounced it.  But off the bounce the stock pulled back and it would still be a loser for me.  But it SHOULD be a good stock in the Trump Economy.  But it too is directionless because of unpredictability, at least short term.

Anyhow my views are pretty clear now, I simply do not think we have seen the worst of things.  I could VERY EASILY be wrong.  Optimism could overrun me.  

BUT... I see gradual inflation, gradual rise in unemployment rolls, and a Fed handcuffed by unpredictable government policy.  I mean think about it.  We came about 10 hours from the market going free fall, before Trumps reversed course.  Bessent was thrilled that the markets still were operational!?!?!  But we had to get that close for reality to get through?  That is sort of scary to me. 

Anyhow I really, really want to go long.  I just do not think we have seen the bottom yet.  And hell, if I am wrong, I only lose house money at this point.  But over  the 90 day stoppage, the effects of tariff disruption are going to be more and more apparent.  And then the word "transitory" will be the word drinking game that will get you faced out of your mind.

For myself, I have been through the dotcom bust, the 2008 banking crisis and the Covid threat.  In each of those, I had decades of peak earning years to recover.  Now I don’t.  That plus the willfully capricious nature in which this market disruption is being engineered by a President eschewing expert opinion is what leads me to have a different attitude about it now.

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Posted
On 4/17/2025 at 11:35 PM, Anastasis said:

a lot of words to tell us that just don't know how the DJI works. It's ok. It was a stupid post, even in this fraught environment. 


Why not enlighten rather than insult? 

Posted
14 hours ago, B00M said:


Why not enlighten rather than insult? 

 

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

See my first in that series of posts. 

 

IMG_4449.jpeg.ee6e7d74e6762c90dffd72b8dd9b5902.jpeg

Ana is correct. He knows more about the DJI than I do.   Lots, i’m sure.  His big brain missed that I was not responding in any way to a post about the DJI granular influences.  I should’ve said “I think we’ll be eating the shit sandwich sooner than we thought” and let it go at that.

I have a friend who exports construction material and finished goods like cabinets to the Caribbean. A good start to the year in his growing business resulted in a complete shutdown of orders and cancellation of others because of the tariff crap.

I see the volume of domestic freight reducing. I see my neighbors and friends and family and colleagues acting defensively in all things financial, either buying cars before the tariffs or putting off buying until after things settle down.  I know people canceling vacations to Europe.   It seems like everyone I know is getting out of equities.  I might be completely wrong, but it seems like a whole lot of intelligent people are whistling past the graveyard regarding the inevitable.

If Anna wants to continue stonking I wish him luck.   I’m sure with the manipulator-in- chief in charge there will be opportunities for those with sufficient perspicacity, but that is not me.   

 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

 

IMG_4449.jpeg.ee6e7d74e6762c90dffd72b8dd9b5902.jpeg

Ana is correct. He knows more about the DJI than I do.   Lots, i’m sure.  His big brain missed that I was not responding in any way to a post about the DJI granular influences.  I should’ve said “I think we’ll be eating the shit sandwich sooner than we thought” and let it go at that.

I have a friend who exports construction material and finished goods like cabinets to the Caribbean. A good start to the year in his growing business resulted in a complete shutdown of orders and cancellation of others because of the tariff crap.

I see the volume of domestic freight reducing. I see my neighbors and friends and family and colleagues acting defensively in all things financial, either buying cars before the tariffs or putting off buying until after things settle down.  I know people canceling vacations to Europe.   It seems like everyone I know is getting out of equities.  I might be completely wrong, but it seems like a whole lot of intelligent people are whistling past the graveyard regarding the inevitable.

If Anna wants to continue stonking I wish him luck.   I’m sure with the manipulator-in- chief in charge there will be opportunities for those with sufficient perspicacity, but that is not me.   

 

a2211557-990a-4f0a-80aa-da693034aedb.png.a4c2c266c45ea3afab76c3d8c9abde68.png

 

DJT2 update

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

 

 

IMG_4449.jpeg.ee6e7d74e6762c90dffd72b8dd9b5902.jpeg

Ana is correct. He knows more about the DJI than I do.   Lots, i’m sure.  His big brain missed that I was not responding in any way to a post about the DJI granular influences.  I should’ve said “I think we’ll be eating the shit sandwich sooner than we thought” and let it go at that.

I have a friend who exports construction material and finished goods like cabinets to the Caribbean. A good start to the year in his growing business resulted in a complete shutdown of orders and cancellation of others because of the tariff crap.

I see the volume of domestic freight reducing. I see my neighbors and friends and family and colleagues acting defensively in all things financial, either buying cars before the tariffs or putting off buying until after things settle down.  I know people canceling vacations to Europe.   It seems like everyone I know is getting out of equities.  I might be completely wrong, but it seems like a whole lot of intelligent people are whistling past the graveyard regarding the inevitable.

If Anna wants to continue stonking I wish him luck.   I’m sure with the manipulator-in- chief in charge there will be opportunities for those with sufficient perspicacity, but that is not me.   

 

What a weird series of posts. 

It's ok to just say that you don't understand how each of the indices work and just want to emote. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted

SO interesting day today.  Looks like there is actually some degree of decoupling from Crypto and the Dow.  Up until today most of the time Bitcoin has been a leading indicator for the DOW (argue of the intricacies the DOW all you want).  So to me that is a bit interesting...  As to the why (if there is a decoupling beyond today)?  Is crypto actually becoming what it was sold as, an alternative to traditional stocks and banking?  Or is this a blip, an anomaly?

Anyhow what I am interested in is what DIRECTION is the DOW headed?  I see it as drifting sideways or slowly downward with another steep sell off in the future as the hope wanes.  

Right now I think the market is operating in a place of caution, and cautious optimism.  As I so not believe that realistic expectations regarding inflation and tariffs is barely baked into the market at this point.  Instead all focus is on trying to rid the Trump Economy of the one steady hand at the tiller, Fed Chair Powell.  Rather than focus on the inflation that is coming, Powell is supposed to be the cure to bad Trump Economic policy.  We are just getting into the beginnings of bad fiscal policy, as the great big beautiful deficit busting bill winds it way though.

I still regret not buying those $560 puts on Tesla... but I would have already cashed out.  It will be interesting to see the sorts of guidance we get as earnings begin rolling in this week.  What I am curious about is PLTR earnings next week.  I expect another revenue beat, but that valuation...

But does the DOW close up or down from weeks close at this week's end?  

 

Posted

Directionally this market is down until there is significant improvement in macro news, everything right now is shitty.  
 

When you’re expecting JPow to go brrrrr as your Hail Mary, I’m not sure if we have another QE rally in us.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

What a weird series of posts. 

It's ok to just say that you don't understand how each of the indices work and just want to emote. 

You may be a Roy Cohn clone, but you are our Roy Cohn clone.

BTW - how are all the markets whose indices I do not understand doing today?  All up I guess…

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Posted
On 4/17/2025 at 10:57 AM, UTGrad98 said:

Here is the scapegoat for crashing the economy. 

Lulz, Trump will try but good luck with all that

Posted

Optimism is evaporating except for Fox News audience that doesn’t look at their accounts since they are not reporting anything on how bad the policies are working. 
 

go to their website and no news about the economy or markets. I heard that they took the ticker off the tv channel. 
 

covering Pope’s death gives them temporary cover. 
 

I have the same feeling as February 2020. The market is going to get even worse. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Optimism is evaporating except for Fox News audience that doesn’t look at their accounts since they are not reporting anything on how bad the policies are working. 

Man, they are really gonna be pissed at Joe Biden in about two weeks when they finally look at their 401(k).

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Posted
Optimism is evaporating except for Fox News audience that doesn’t look at their accounts since they are not reporting anything on how bad the policies are working. 
 
go to their website and no news about the economy or markets. I heard that they took the ticker off the tv channel. 
 
covering Pope’s death gives them temporary cover. 
 
I have the same feeling as February 2020. The market is going to get even worse. 

Same feeling. I’m increasing our emergency fund and just saving cash for now. Still doing 401k’s, so sorta still investing.
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:


Same feeling. I’m increasing our emergency fund and just saving cash for now. Still doing 401k’s, so sorta still investing.

That 4.01 (APY) savings is much more fun to keep up with right now than the brokerage or 401k account.

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Posted

I forget who the analyst who was on Bloomberg pre-market.  She was the derivative analyst for somebody, but she was talking about 5 levels of market fear (that was somebody else's thesis) Where we are at level two, and that the movement to level three was a usually violently downward.   As I was driving away this morning made me wish I had taped her, as she had some other forward looking indicators she was watching, that I wanted to write down...  She had a good analogy about the markets operating at a fixed level of a 30+ VIX for an extended period of time.  It's sort of like an elevated heart rate.  Over time it simply is not good for the patient due to the constant additional stress.  Anyhow need to try and search her down later.

I think there is indeed too much optimism, and some of it is political in nature, which is natural.  And yes Fox News no longer really does news. Hell watch their "business" channel and try to glean any useful information?  So for me, as a person betting against the market, networks specifically trying not to make their viewers informed regarding market risks (besides the gold commercials I used to laugh at) is good for me.  When it is the most popular News Channel in the country?  That's good for me too.  As when reality does hit, it's going to be violent.  As the wake up call to reality is going to be very, very rude.  That's why I honestly pay attention to FOX's Sunday coverage.  When the hard questions start getting asked there, it's time for me to move out of being short in all likelihood.  But you think of the drop it took to start sort of asking moderately tough questions... Like I said I think a good degree of the current optimism is politically based, and Fox is sort of like a leading indicator, when tough questions come into play... for Republican guests...

 

 

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