Markets still falling like whoa

[babysdaddy 2725]

Return averages post midterms

 

Maybe need to get long now Rusty

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Yeah I definitely want to get back in post election. Started a position in aapl again today, will continue to add over the next week

[HouTex 1887]

I’m trying to keep about 1/2 in cash until after the election. Tempted to buy some AAPL today but I’m not sure this is the bottom yet.

When are you ever sure you are at the bottom? Same question about the top.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

2 minutes ago, HouTex said:

When are you ever sure you are at the bottom? Same question about the top.

Didn't say that I know when the bottom will be, but I am sure that the election is next week. I do think the downside is greater than the upside over the next 3 days, that's all I'm talking about.

[52-80 19203]

3 hours ago, HouTex said:

When are you ever sure you are at the bottom? Same question about the top.

the bottom is capable of receiving an enormous amount of power from the top.  although i heard speed also has something to do with it

[Incredulity 11679]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

the bottom is capable of receiving an enormous amount of power from the top.  although i heard speed also has something to do with it

Nsaa is that way———>

[drewlaws 126]

wrong thread

Edited November 3, 2018 by drewlaws

[Trey3216 15349]

AMZN calls are fun  

[Trey3216 15349]

[Tailgate 3022]

Days like today you can’t miss.

[happyfunball 481]

A market dynamic that few are talking about is signaling a buying opportunity.

Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub connected two important market forces in a note to clients on Tuesday: price-to-earnings multiples and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

The takeaway from Golub’s analysis is this: The combination of the steep drop in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio coupled with an above average ISM Manufacturing Index points to double digit gains for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, if history is any judge.

Credit Suisse has a 3,350 target on the S&P 500 for the end of 2019, representing 21.6% upside from its current level of roughly 2,755.

[Tailgate 3022]

12 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

A market dynamic that few are talking about is signaling a buying opportunity.

Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub connected two important market forces in a note to clients on Tuesday: price-to-earnings multiples and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

The takeaway from Golub’s analysis is this: The combination of the steep drop in the S&P 500’s P/E ratio coupled with an above average ISM Manufacturing Index points to double digit gains for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, if history is any judge.

Credit Suisse has a 3,350 target on the S&P 500 for the end of 2019, representing 21.6% upside from its current level of roughly 2,755.

This would obviously be great...especially with the articles I’ve read where a lot of analysts believe 2019 could be a “slower” year.

[Trey3216 15349]

5 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

This would obviously be great...especially with the articles I’ve read where a lot of analysts believe 2019 could be a “slower” year.

We had a 10% pullback at a most opportune time 

[Trey3216 15349]

Have an aggressive portfolio up 30% today due to buying AMZN calls yesterday on house money I made from AMZN calls last week.   This is fun.   I may be drunk by 5 

[Yarbr 123]

Sessions is gone, that should help the pot stocks.

[Trey3216 15349]

Make that 40% now.  Haysoos.  I've already hammered 2 gin drinks in the office.  Today is a good day 

[Anastasis 23479]

30 minutes ago, Yarbr said:

Sessions is gone, that should help the pot stocks.

TLRY up 30%. 

 

imgur

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, hopefully full steam ahead for the rest of the year, at least.

[Tailgate 3022]

Hookers and blow day....dayuuuum.

Ill stick to a few coors lights though.

#staylong

[happyfunball 481]

[4thgenhorn 38]

So for those sitting on the sidelines, what are u looking for to put cash back to work?

 

i have sub 10% cash, but looking at TSLA, PayPal, or an index fund when I get around to putting the cash to work. My main issue when investing: I’m chicken shit to buy on the dips, rather I panic buy on the way up. Curious what others use to help find that investible “bottom”. 

[jimmyjazz 45998]

33 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

i have sub 10% cash, but looking at TSLA, PayPal, or an index fund when I get around to putting the cash to work. My main issue when investing: I’m chicken shit to buy on the dips, rather I panic buy on the way up. Curious what others use to help find that investible “bottom”. 

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

[Sbbruin 21865]

^^what he said.

[Trey3216 15349]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

It’s a solid strategy.   Also buying large cap dividend payers and selling covered calls is fairly similar.   Sell slightly out of the money calls every month and more or less collect an extra dividend every month 

[jimmyjazz 45998]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’s a solid strategy.   Also buying large cap dividend payers and selling covered calls is fairly similar.   Sell slightly out of the money calls every month and more or less collect an extra dividend every month 

Right, but there's the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" aspect where the short call wipes out any big pop in the underlying.  It does appear to work somewhat over the long term.  We've talked about various ETFs here before that basically sell calls against an index and they do tend to outperform the index.

[Trey3216 15349]

34 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Right, but there's the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" aspect where the short call wipes out any big pop in the underlying.  It does appear to work somewhat over the long term.  We've talked about various ETFs here before that basically sell calls against an index and they do tend to outperform the index.

That’s why it really only works with large cap dividend payers.  Not a huge premium on the calls and not as likely for extreme swings in price.  Amazon is not the stock to profit on this strategy, Wally World and Pfizer are though 

[4thgenhorn 38]

5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

This isn't financial advice, it's just thinking out loud.  If you are looking at specific stocks or ETFs and you want to get back in on a dip but seem to always miss the bottom, then consider selling a put for every 100 shares you'd like to own.  The idea is to sell the puts either at the money (i.e., if the stock is at $26 then you sell a $26 put) or out of the money (sell maybe the $24 put, but in this case you're pocketing less $).  If you did so at the bottom, and the underlying starts moving up, at least you pocket the cash from the sale of the put.  If the underlying continues down, then you'll probably get exercised and own the underlying at the price of the put MINUS the selling price of the put; i.e., you end up with the underlying in your account at a net price below where it was priced on the day you sold the option(s).  Stick to only selling 1 put per 100 shares of the underlying you wish to own, so with the above example, you'd need to have $2600 cash set aside to purchase the shares "put" to you by the buyer of every put you sell.  TALK TO YOUR BROKER if you don't understand options.

Anyway, it takes a little heat off "timing the bottom", because either way, you pocket the $ from the sale of the put(s).  If you get exercised, you get the underlying at a slight discount to where it was priced when you sold the put.  If you don't get exercised, hey, you got a little free money, but you still get to kick yourself in the groin for not getting into the underlying near the bottom.

<yes I realize it's a synthetic covered call with all the attending issues of limiting upside>

So I’ve used that strategy before in small quantities. Twice the stock was put to me, and over a multi-year period it turned out to be very profitable. 

 

That said, I felt like a real fool when it did dip below my put and was stressful. Options are great tools, but in my practice I find the volatility and challenge for optimal execution stressful. Also the premium from the options are really mice nuts in the big picture. 

[jimmyjazz 45998]

5 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

That said, I felt like a real fool when it did dip below my put and was stressful.

Eh, I think it's really important that you're comfortable with buying the stock at current market value when you sell the put.  The psychology is rough when it keeps going down, but if the goal is to acquire stock, then the mantra has to be "well, at least I'm getting it cheaper than I would have".

 

Quote

Options are great tools, but in my practice I find the volatility and challenge for optimal execution stressful. Also the premium from the options are really mice nuts in the big picture. 

On a lark, I just took a look at calls on Caterpillar (CAT @ $126.91), which should fit anyone's definition of "blue chip".  Going out 4 weeks, the 0.235 delta call ($136) is priced at $1.43 (middle of bid/ask).  No dividends are expected in that timeframe.  So, the market is telling us the call has a 76.5% chance of expiring worthless.  That's a potential 1.12% "dividend" in a month.  Assume CAT stays flat -- that's 13.5% annualized.  

I realize this is the covered call synthetic of the sold put, but it's instructive.  Of course, CAT could double and we'd miss out on most of that.

(Apologies for any bad math, it's been a long week and I don't have it in me to really dig in.)

[52-80 19203]

so....whos buying GE under distress?

[52-80 19203]

theyve already fucked me once this year

[and 73]

Is no one buying FB on here? At 140 something its under 18 next year's P/E, above average growth next year on the top line AND bottom line, no debt, $41 billion in cash AND they are unofficially doing buybacks. 

If you have a six month horizon, its basically free money. 

[Wally Fairway 5569]

FWIW - both PG&E (-17%) and Edison Int'l (-12%) parent of southern cal edison down due to the fires in Cali.
If you are looking at opportunity, or a high risk play.

[Incredulity 11679]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

FWIW - both PG&E (-17%) and Edison Int'l (-12%) parent of southern cal edison down due to the fires in Cali.
If you are looking at opportunity, or a high risk play.

FWIW, CNBC was referring to PG&E being down because they caused some of the fires.  I had heard that about the fire in Rohnert Park in the past.  I have no other confirmation of that information on this years fires.

[jimmyjazz 45998]

I've seen pretty credible projections of GE dropping to $6.

[and 73]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've seen pretty credible projections of GE dropping to $6.

Other than Stephen Tusa?

[Trey3216 15349]

36 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've seen pretty credible projections of GE dropping to $6.

Watched an analyst earlier comparing it to Lehman Bros 

[jimmyjazz 45998]

8 hours ago, and said:

Other than Stephen Tusa?

Not sure if was another analyst I saw interviewed or if it was him, but I believe his was the original that I read.  The underlying business case looked pretty awful.

[GRHorn 105]

I thought this was good post about the recent correction and possible market direction. 

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/11/summary-us-equities-rallied-more-than-6.html

 

[52-80 19203]

so...who got in on the GE party?

 

finally my SNAP short going in the right direction

[babysdaddy 2725]

wtf HAL.

[fattyflattie 4639]

17 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've seen pretty credible projections of GE dropping to $6.

Well. Not good for me. 

[52-80 19203]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

wtf HAL.

HAL died didnt you hear

[Trey3216 15349]

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

HAL died didnt you hear

Fucker just wouldn’t open those pod bay doors 

[and 73]

8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not sure if was another analyst I saw interviewed or if it was him, but I believe his was the original that I read.  The underlying business case looked pretty awful.

I mean yeah, their revenues last year were 30 billion and expenses were 50 billion.

Unsustainable. 

[happyfunball 481]

On 11/12/2018 at 5:31 PM, 52-80 said:

so....whos buying GE under distress?

I am. The sum of parts analysis is pretty compelling but it will be a painful ride. 

[Incredulity 11679]

19 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Well. Not good for me. 

Me either.  I liked that dividend and bluest of the bluechips 4 years ago.

It's not going to break me, but what a case study for single stock risk.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Anyone ever heard of these guys? James Cordier & Michael Gross.  Their website is wiped.

 

[Trey3216 15349]

2 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Anyone ever heard of these guys? James Cordier & Michael Gross.  Their website is wiped.

 

See Oil Barons thread.  Natty has been trading with some absolutely wicked daily and intraday swings.   Yesterday, it closed up 17%.  If they were short natty, they likely got completely wiped out.   Today natty closed down 16%.  Intraday it swung from down 19-20% to down 7% only to close down 16%.   It’s called The Widowmaker trade, it will likely life up to its name again.  

[Trey3216 15349]

Add:   It actually closed down 19% today.   Apparently it sunk even lower after I left the office 

[52-80 19203]

31 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Anyone ever heard of these guys? James Cordier & Michael Gross.  Their website is wiped.

 

Reply:  OK Cool.  Hook Em.