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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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DaysOff

DaysOff 8157

Posted
Posted
I’m a genius for the next 15 hrs.
Took some substantial(for me) bites just before 11.  Timed it perfect by chance. 
I normally lurk this thread. More of a Bogglehead when it comes to investment strategy. I really only invest for retirement/long timelines.

But there's those words that make guys like me turn their heads sideways. 'Timed it perfect'. How often can you do that to stay in the black?
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11861

Posted
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1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

I normally lurk this thread. More of a Bogglehead when it comes to investment strategy. I really only invest for retirement/long timelines.

But there's those words that make guys like me turn their heads sideways. 'Timed it perfect'. How often can you do that to stay in the black?

It was in jest.

I do NOT think I timed anything.

It was a moment of luck and light hearted comment.

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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6 hours ago, NowThis said:

Dow 21,000 within the next 5 months, probably sooner and lower.

I think it could go further than that, but the economy is not weak.  I think when it bottoms out, it will tip out in the 34-35k range.   Then we’ll pull back to this year’s highs.  

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

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4 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's gonna be fun when were fucked and everyone realizes that the recent tax cut depleted our stimulus capacity for the next decade or so and we really get to stew in it

I disagree that we've depleted our capacity.  Mainly because we can and will do quantitative easing again if we need to.   

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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I'm sleeping much better since I hedged most of my market exposure over the past 2-3 weeks. I choose to "invest" about 3% of the value of investments into a series of Puts that expire between 1/19 and 12/19 (average expiration is about 5/19). I closed out some of my funds in Sept/Oct, ones with the biggest gains, and also narrowed my focus by selling a few things that I'd put money into as a flyer.

I'll look to hedge a couple more of the ETF's over the next week or so, if the market jumps up at all.
The biggest risk is that some of my hedges are "market hedges" DJIA or S&P 500, as some of the investments don't offer very attractive or broad options markets.
I'm willing to make this investment to see how the market, trade negotiation, Brexit, Russia, and FCOJ future report turn out in January.

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52-80

52-80 19376

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5 hours ago, Doc Reeves said:

Welp. Due to the huge exodus from equity funds US Stock market lost about $4 Trillion last week. 

Not catastrophic at all.  At 200 years old, the NYSE is ahead of schedule in terms of healthy natural growth.  Just trying to shave off some overexuberance

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NowThis

NowThis 931

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On 12/7/2018 at 11:51 PM, Trey3216 said:

I think it could go further than that, but the economy is not weak.  I think when it bottoms out, it will tip out in the 34-35k range.   Then we’ll pull back to this year’s highs.  

you foresee 18,000? when?

23,600 right now down 450.  I think a 1000 point drop is coming this week, not sure wtf the Fed will do on 12/19 wednesday, despite that 1000 down sometime soon. 

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2331

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Dabbled a little today in the last hour of trading.  I can’t bring myself to trade options. Just buying low and hoping to sell a little higher. I’m hoping to eventually put everything I have in the market but I decided now is not that time so I’ll continue to trade 10-20 % of my brokerage account and looking to sell 3-5 % higher . I have been trading once or twice a month for the past 3 months. Not being greedy. So far I’m at about 6 percent return for the year ( on my entire brokerage account) with most of that return in the past 3 months since I started trading at what I hope are bottoms. Been lucky so far and hit on all of my 4 trades. If I miss on a trade I’ll just dollar cost average of it does fall more. Spy dia qqq and amazon are the stocks I am trading . Bought some amazon today at 1519. Maybe tomorrow will be a better day and I’ll sell. 

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3287

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On 12/14/2018 at 12:58 PM, 52-80 said:

Not catastrophic at all.  At 200 years old, the NYSE is ahead of schedule in terms of healthy natural growth.  Just trying to shave off some overexuberance

Yep.  It’s still above historic averages when you look at 3 and 5 year returns. It was a matter of time for a correction 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think we may capitulate this afternoon. I don't see this rally making it all day.  I think we'll end up with another big down day, open up down big tomorrow, and the FED will come out and hold with some added language.  Oil shoots up, Financials and Energy follow and we rally into the end of the year.  

Edited by Trey3216
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I think we may capitulate this afternoon. I don't see this rally making it all day.  I think we'll end up with another big down day, open up down big tomorrow, and the FED will come out and hold with some added language.  Oil shoots up, Financials and Energy follow and we rally into the end of the year.  

I think the Fed has previously indicated they were going to raise again in December, and I think that they do. Otherwise it looks like they are bending to the tweets of the POTUS; if he really wanted to have influence then he'd do it behind the scene - but that isn't his style (trying to not go Cloakie on this post)

The likelihood has come down slightly in the past week but still around 70% https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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21 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I think the Fed has previously indicated they were going to raise again in December, and I think that they do. Otherwise it looks like they are bending to the tweets of the POTUS; if he really wanted to have influence then he'd do it behind the scene - but that isn't his style (trying to not go Cloakie on this post)

The likelihood has come down slightly in the past week but still around 70% https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

I know these things.  Was just laying out a prediction as the data has changed in the last month and this FED has been seen to be very data driven.  Even if they do raise, the language in the release is what will affect the market.  I think they will be more dovish as, I said before, the data has changed.  

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2331

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4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think we may capitulate this afternoon. I don't see this rally making it all day.  I think we'll end up with another big down day, open up down big tomorrow, and the FED will come out and hold with some added language.  Oil shoots up, Financials and Energy follow and we rally into the end of the year.  

Thanks for this . I was most likely selling today due to traveling anyway but this nudged me to do it a bit sooner . Sold amzn ridiculously at 1563 of all prices . May rebuy just before close . 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
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1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Thanks for this . I was most likely selling today due to traveling anyway but this nudged me to do it a bit sooner . Sold amzn ridiculously at 1563 of all prices . May rebuy just before close . 

It didn’t quite do what I thought.   It did give up a 300 pt gain and go 100 negative then finish near 100 positive.   That’s something.   Futures are down rt now.  FedEx lowering 2019 expectations and Micron with a piss poor earnings call, again again, have spooked things further.   FED tomorrow.   Morning gonna be a bunch of suckage.   

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