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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45960

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’ve built a pretty substantial position in ESV.   Starting to add some BP and CRZO for juice. 

 

I love GS grading at 6.2 P/E as well 

SLB is another option.  Less risky than ESV.  Less upside, too.  I may target some of my dollar cost $ there instead.

It's crazy that these stocks are 56% - 65% off their 1-year highs.  I'm all for timing the bottom but holy smokes oil is not going away tomorrow.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

SLB is another option.  Less risky than ESV.  Less upside, too.  I may target some of my dollar cost $ there instead.

It's crazy that these stocks are 56% - 65% off their 1-year highs.  I'm all for timing the bottom but holy smokes oil is not going away tomorrow.

SLB is a fucking basket case ever since the current dipshit took over as CEO.  However even with that being said, the stock is way too cheap to pass up.  That’s not to say it won’t get cheaper, but at least you get a 5.5% dividend to wait it out.  I guess they could cut the dividend but I doubt they will.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2276

Posted
Posted (edited)

First trade to lose money for me in my small foray into swing trading. Bought some shares of dia at the end of day last Friday . Sold them thankfully into a small rally this morning. Bought at 224.11. Sold at 222.78. Still up in my accounts this year but doesn’t feel good to lose. A small lesson learned. 

Edited by UTGrad98
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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2276

Posted
Posted

export-V3R9y%20(1).1545663889377.png

So the s and p officially closed in bear market territory today. It marks the 3rd bear market since 2000 with the other 2 in 2000 and 2007 respectively . For those who have followed the market through those times, What are the differences and similarities to now?  My main concern is was the economy running like is it now back then as well? With economists stating not to panic and that unemployment is low , consumer spending is strong etc? 

 

I remember reading about Jamie dimon saying this next bear will be caused by bond issues. What did he mean by that? We have never had to navigate through QT before . Did we essentially kick the can down the road with 3 rounds of QE that we are just now starting to absorb?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5550

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I predict the market will go back up at some point in the future. 

Huh, I predict that sometime in the future the market will go down. 

 

And for a limited time, surly posters can sign up for the Telegraph vs. Wally newsletter. Only $29.95/month, on sale today only for $9.95/month. Guaranteed to be right. 

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14598

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Amateur hour in Washington. Mnuchin’s a world class dumbass. 

Everyone knows Trump told him to call the banks and then get on TV this morning.

I'll Cloak Room this bitch up.  It really is astonishing.  The economy was doing fairly well going into 2017.  Don't fuck with a streak.  All Trump would have had to do is ride the wave and claim America was indeed great again.  Instead, he fucked with a streak.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5550

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Tailgate said:

What’s happened in the past after brutal quarters in the market?

Saw this on another board copied from a Marketwatch story. Here is the link:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-fared-after-similarly-brutal-losses-in-a-quarter-2018-12-24

3e718f79229b64ffdda80460de4648e3.jpg

56cd6b96f04b01e22ff515debb00f7ee.jpg

So December is 0.9% away from being in the top (bottom) 10 - or one more comment by Mnuchin/Trump, the Fed, or a snowflake falling on a butterflies wings in Tokyo changing the weather in California.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26472

Posted
Posted
No, this is a repricing [mention=546]UTGrad98[/mention]

However - you can sell 240 January 22 SPY puts for about $7 at this moment. 

What that means in simple terms is that you would be paid $700 today, and if SPY hits 240 between now and January 22, you would have a round lot of 100 shares of SPY put to you for $24000. 

Sound dangerous? It sort of is, but not as dangerous as it might seem, for a couple of reasons.

First, if the market moves the other direction without hitting 240, the option will become much cheaper much faster as volatility contracts, and you can buy the put back for less than you were paid, and you pocket the difference for having held the risk for a short time. You can also roll it forward, or down (or up) to avoid being assigned shares, or even buy a put below your strike price to limit your downside. This last is called a "vertical put spread", and I used to specialize in this kind of trade when I traded options regularly. This strategy limits the risk you are underwriting , making it a conservative income strategy even in weird market conditions.

But lets say you don't do any of that - let's say you write a put, naked, with unlimited exposure, the market falls,  and the shares are put to you. That means you own a very high quality, diverse, low fee ETF at a discount, in a down market, and you can hold on to it until sale would generate a profit. 

So - 5 days later, the market is up, and the price of this option has dropped from open at 9.44, and currently trades (as of this moment) at 6.89. So, if I'm nervous I can buy the put back and keep $20. Or, I can let it ride and let time and movement devalue the put.

But either way - the underlying issue hit $234 on christmas day, so worst case: if the shares were put to me I effectively wound up buying SPY at 233, and it now trades at 240.

 

 

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SDG

SDG 3319

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You mean those courses where they teach you about things like the dividend discount model? 

That's one of many valuation techniques.  You asked about volatility and many intro to finance courses talk about it.  If you want to cheat though there are discussions in this very thread you can go back and review.  Cough "vix" is an easy one.  

Edited by SDG
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