Markets still falling like whoa

[Wally Fairway 5550]

I haven't looked yet, but I'm guessing my puts didn't fair too well today -

Oh well there is always tomorrow - LOL {I'll go cry now}

[jimmyjazz 45963]

17 hours ago, Tailgate said:

To put a less rosy point on it:  in the year following that "average" 23.1% drop in one quarter, the S&P did not quite recover to the level it enjoyed one quarter prior to the drop (i.e., a 25.6% gain after a 23.1% drop leaves the index down 3.4% one year later.)

[Fudge Nuggets 19194]

6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You mean those courses where they teach you about things like the dividend discount model? 

You should so put every cent you have in VXX.  It’s a sure thing.

[Tailgate 3022]

Another good thought I saw today. This from a guy who used to work for Motley Fool (don’t love their site/pitch but like this quote). As previously noted on this thread, I’m a long-term investor who believes in capturing the S&P with a balanced portfolio depending on your goals.

Most of what matters as a long-term investor is how you behave during the 1% of the time everyone else is losing their cool. Every one of the market's top days took place during periods of Sheer Terror. Of the 20 Best Market Days of all Time, 17 were during the Great Depression, 1 was a few Days After the Crash of 1987, and 2 were during the Depths of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Missing these days Devastated your Long-Term Returns. And most investors who missed them were those who sold out, or stopped buying, after stocks crashed and everyone around them were busy panicking. Those who try to avoid losses consistently end up missing even larger gains. That's why [Boring and] Average all of the time, ends up above average overall. Like a plane pilot, investing is "hours and hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror." Your success as an investor will be determined by how you respond to punctuated moments of terror, not the years and years spent on cruise control.

[Wally Fairway 5550]

Market pre-open,

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee - riding the buy & hold coaster

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

So yesterday looks like a suckers rally.

[Hornius Emeritus 12464]

13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So yesterday looks like a suckers rally.

 

Dead cat bounce.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So yesterday looks like a suckers rally.

Yeah, the Dow gained 1,000 yesterday but the 700 it lost on Christmas Eve and the 400 today make that a push.

[ztejas 43457]

The 3 biggest gains in S&P History were 2 days in October of 2008 followed by yesterday.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

Highly underreported story today.  India will always fuck you over.  AMZN put $5B into this and WMT already blew $17B for Flipkart, which no one thought was a good idea.  This is only the beginning:

NEW DELHI—India is tightening restrictions on foreign e-commerce companies operating in the country, a new challenge to Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. as they bet billions on the nascent market.

Current rules forbid non-Indian online sellers from holding their own inventory and shipping it out to consumers, as is typically done in other countries. Instead, they have found a work-around by operating as online marketplaces and selling what are effectively their own products held by their affiliated local companies.

 

They will no longer be allowed to sell such goods, a division of India’s Commerce and Industry Ministry said in a statement Wednesday, an apparent attempt to close that loophole.

The new rules, which take effect Feb. 1, also bar foreign companies from entering into exclusive agreements with sellers. Amazon, for example, has in the past been the exclusive third-party online retailer to sell smartphones from the popular Chinese smartphone brand OnePlus.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has pledged $5 billion to expand its India operations, and the Seattle retailer has become a leading online seller in India since its 2013 launch. In May, Walmart bought Flipkart Group, India’s biggest homegrown e-commerce firm, for $16 billion,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-tighter-e-commerce-rules-frustrate-amazon-and-walmart-plans-11545907173?ns=prod/accounts-wsj

 

[happyfunball 481]

WMT acquisition of Flipkart was a great acquisition but India just f them hard. If they hadn't purchased, AMZN would have acquired then WMT would be shut out of another market.

WMT had to effectively exit China ecommerce market and recently exited Brazil completely. Where else were they going to play int'l?

[happyfunball 481]

Lots of market commentary expect rally in Q1. Trading is extremely light in Dec so would suggest people not sell now. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by happyfunball

[happyfunball 481]

[Blotto 23525]

I take it the massive run up over the last part of the trading day was related to the consumer spending report? 

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

I take it the massive run up over the last part of the trading day was related to the consumer spending report? 

Where the hell is Beeks?

[babysdaddy 2725]

Assume everyone saw the WSJ story on 85% of daily trading volume is done by algos?  from down 600 around lunch to up 255 at the fucking close.  jfc

big day up tomorrow on the heels of that move combined with yesterday

[Telegraph_it 3357]

17 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Another good thought I saw today. This from a guy who used to work for Motley Fool (don’t love their site/pitch but like this quote). As previously noted on this thread, I’m a long-term investor who believes in capturing the S&P with a balanced portfolio depending on your goals.

Most of what matters as a long-term investor is how you behave during the 1% of the time everyone else is losing their cool. Every one of the market's top days took place during periods of Sheer Terror. Of the 20 Best Market Days of all Time, 17 were during the Great Depression, 1 was a few Days After the Crash of 1987, and 2 were during the Depths of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Missing these days Devastated your Long-Term Returns. And most investors who missed them were those who sold out, or stopped buying, after stocks crashed and everyone around them were busy panicking. Those who try to avoid losses consistently end up missing even larger gains. That's why [Boring and] Average all of the time, ends up above average overall. Like a plane pilot, investing is "hours and hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror." Your success as an investor will be determined by how you respond to punctuated moments of terror, not the years and years spent on cruise control.

Extended drops like December and the 1,000 point rally are why I’ll never beat the market. I just buy. I haven’t sold much since 2013. 

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

Watching the market today gives me an eerie feeling like we are Homer on the skateboard mid jump.

 

[HouTex 1867]

Extended drops like December and the 1,000 point rally are why I’ll never beat the market. I just buy. I haven’t sold much since 2013. 

This. I sometimes reallocate among various funds but I've never sold and stayed out of the market for any extended time. Of course, I will finally sell a dog (Dell in the mid 2000's and GE in 2015) but I haven't figured out how to predict the future with any degree of certainty so I won't even try. Buying and holding quality funds has done me very well over the last 22+ years.

[Anastasis 23474]

go home market you’re drunk. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

3 hours ago, happyfunball said:

WMT acquisition of Flipkart was a great acquisition but India just f them hard. If they hadn't purchased, AMZN would have acquired then WMT would be shut out of another market.

WMT had to effectively exit China ecommerce market and recently exited Brazil completely. Where else were they going to play int'l?

Flipkart doesn't make a profit and WMT doesn't even know when or if it ever will.  They paid $17B for that.  That's billion.  All in a country whose government has a long history of fucking people over.  To make matters worse, one of the upsides to Flipkart was its CEO but they had to get rid of him for sexual harassment reasons.

Buying into a bad situation just to prevent your opponent from buying into that same bad situation is what got the US into Vietnam.  

[ztejas 43457]

I want off of Trump's wild ride.

[happyfunball 481]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Flipkart doesn't make a profit and WMT doesn't even know when or if it ever will.  They paid $17B for that.  That's billion.  All in a country whose government has a long history of fucking people over.  To make matters worse, one of the upsides to Flipkart was its CEO but they had to get rid of him for sexual harassment reasons.

Buying into a bad situation just to prevent your opponent from buying into that same bad situation is what got the US into Vietnam.  

I don’t even know where to start with this so we will just have to disagree.  WMT throws off a shit ton of cash. Cash even in the $Bs doesn’t matter to them. Their crisis is if they exist in 20+ yrs because they didn’t invest into ecommerce. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

13 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

I don’t even know where to start with this so we will just have to disagree.  WMT throws off a shit ton of cash. Cash even in the $Bs doesn’t matter to them. Their crisis is if they exist in 20+ yrs because they didn’t invest into ecommerce. 

E-commerce, yes.  In India?  No.  Infrastructure is total trash, the government is corrupt, and the massive cities don't lend themselves to quick warehouse delivery.  There's also a vast network of very small neighborhood shops already in place.  Multiple ones on every block.  How does a megachain like WMT or AMZN compete with that?  FWIW, Amazon doesn't do that well in their international businesses at this point.

$17B is still $17B.  When they raised their wages, that only cost $1B and their stock went down 10% that day.  

I don't know one single person in the industry who thinks this is a good idea.

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Aqua Buddha

[Fudge Nuggets 19194]

7 hours ago, happyfunball said:

Lots of market commentary expect rally in Q1. Trading is extremely light in Dec so would suggest people not sell now. 

Just gut feeling, but I always felt this week would be good to very good.  Next week is when shit hits the fan again. 

Reminds me of 2011.

[Anastasis 23474]

[bernorange 8362]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:48 PM, UTGrad98 said:

...

I remember reading about Jamie dimon saying this next bear will be caused by bond issues. What did he mean by that? We have never had to navigate through QT before . Did we essentially kick the can down the road with 3 rounds of QE that we are just now starting to absorb?

Look here:  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/5200-fucking-zombies-man/

 

[Trey3216 15346]

Happy New Year folks.  Let’s hope these next few months are better than the last few.   

[Blotto 23525]

And we're off...

[Firemans4Horn 18060]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

And we're off...

 

Back in the green!

[52-80 19161]

On 12/27/2018 at 4:20 AM, Tailgate said:

Another good thought I saw today. This from a guy who used to work for Motley Fool (don’t love their site/pitch but like this quote). As previously noted on this thread, I’m a long-term investor who believes in capturing the S&P with a balanced portfolio depending on your goals.

Most of what matters as a long-term investor is how you behave during the 1% of the time everyone else is losing their cool. Every one of the market's top days took place during periods of Sheer Terror. Of the 20 Best Market Days of all Time, 17 were during the Great Depression, 1 was a few Days After the Crash of 1987, and 2 were during the Depths of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Missing these days Devastated your Long-Term Returns. And most investors who missed them were those who sold out, or stopped buying, after stocks crashed and everyone around them were busy panicking. Those who try to avoid losses consistently end up missing even larger gains. That's why [Boring and] Average all of the time, ends up above average overall. Like a plane pilot, investing is "hours and hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror." Your success as an investor will be determined by how you respond to punctuated moments of terror, not the years and years spent on cruise control.

Espousing long term strategy but they're giving example of single-day movements as the upside (in periods of protracted losses!)

 

And then...assuming these investors are  disciplined (=haven't cashed out)....forget confidence, where are they getting the capital to add positions during these recessions?

[Telegraph_it 3357]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Espousing long term strategy but they're giving example of single-day movements as the upside (in periods of protracted losses!)

 

And then...assuming these investors are  disciplined (=haven't cashed out)....forget confidence, where are they getting the capital to add positions during these recessions?

I get paid a few times a month and dividends get reinvested. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

Espousing long term strategy but they're giving example of single-day movements as the upside (in periods of protracted losses!)

 

And then...assuming these investors are  disciplined (=haven't cashed out)....forget confidence, where are they getting the capital to add positions during these recessions?

Call me old fashioned, but I think highly of high yield savings accounts, relative term though high yield may be.

[Blotto 23525]

Apple forecasts Q1 revenue at $84 billion, which is a decent miss against consensus forecast of $94 billion and Apple's own estimate of $89-$93 billion. That's a 4.5% decrease from their numbers 12 months ago. Could spook the market a bit tomorrow.

[Trey3216 15346]

4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Apple forecasts Q1 revenue at $84 billion, which is a decent miss against consensus forecast of $94 billion and Apple's own estimate of $89-$93 billion. That's a 4.5% decrease from their numbers 12 months ago. Could spook the market a bit tomorrow.

Down as much as 8% AH on Apple.  

 

However, market pundits have been begging for this to happen for weeks.  Was watching an interview on Bloomberg the week before Christmas and a trader was saying "I wish Apple would go ahead and pre-guide lower so the market would start to settle down a bit" 

 

Some of it baked in, but will still sell off tomorrow.  China PMI numbers that came out this morning were pretty much the straw in this one.  Luckily, we kinda have them over a barrel right now vis a vis trade discussions.  Hopefully we can get that wrapped up soon. 

[NowThis 931]

lots of downside after hours in all sectors . AAPL is a dog of a stock now, smartphones are a commodity, good less expensive options everywhere.  They need to diversify like AMZN to keep growing. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

Maybe it's because they're trying to charge $1,000 for a fucking iPhone.  Hell, it doesn't do much different than the 6 I have.  I personally know dozens of people that looked at getting the new phone but couldn't figure out why it was that much better.

This should also be a lesson for tariffs.  There is a very firm ceiling on what people are willing to pay and if you hit that ceiling, sales crash.  

[Trey3216 15346]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Maybe it's because they're trying to charge $1,000 for a fucking iPhone.  Hell, it doesn't do much different than the 6 I have.  I personally know dozens of people that looked at getting the new phone but couldn't figure out why it was that much better.

This should also be a lesson for tariffs.  There is a very firm ceiling on what people are willing to pay and if you hit that ceiling, sales crash.  

This isn’t really the lesson for tariffs so to speak.  The rip of Apple’s intellectual property in 4 years would be the reason for tariffs.   

[Tailgate 3022]

Still long AAPL. As a technology company...it is time for us to see something new...a TV...automous technology...I’m hoping it’s not far off for the next great product.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

17 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This isn’t really the lesson for tariffs so to speak.  The rip of Apple’s intellectual property in 4 years would be the reason for tariffs.   

If you think the American consumer is going to pay a 10% uncharge on apparel and electronics, you're kidding yourself.

[Trey3216 15346]

33 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If you think the American consumer is going to pay a 10% uncharge on apparel and electronics, you're kidding yourself.

They have been for a decade, why get mad about it now 

[NowThis 931]

1 hour ago, Tailgate said:

Still long AAPL. As a technology company...it is time for us to see something new...a TV...automous technology...I’m hoping it’s not far off for the next great product.

a Mac screen is gorgeous and i've thought a 55" TV would kickass. Does that exist?

[Tailgate 3022]

45 minutes ago, NowThis said:

a Mac screen is gorgeous and i've thought a 55" TV would kickass. Does that exist?

Not an Apple one...yet. But Cook has always mentioned they are very interested in television and that’s all he says.

[Fudge Nuggets 19194]

 

10 hours ago, Tailgate said:

As a technology company...it is time for us to see something new...a TV

TVs have been around a while.  We had a TV when I was a kid growing up.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Fudge Nuggets

[Incredulity 11675]

10 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Still long AAPL. As a technology company...it is time for us to see something new...a TV...automous technology...I’m hoping it’s not far off for the next great product.

I went to both Best Buy and Costco the week before Christmas looking to get my wife an Ipad Pro with large memory.  Sold Out, couldn’t say when they might have any at both places.  

 

 

[Tailgate 3022]

20 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

 

TVs have been around a while.  We had a TV when I was a kid growing up.

I don't want a tube TV. I want one I can talk to and tell what to watch and turns onto my favorite channel when I walk in a room.

[Fudge Nuggets 19194]

8 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I don't want a tube TV. I want one I can talk to and tell what to watch and turns onto my favorite channel when I walk in a room.

That’s what kids are for.

[Wally Fairway 5550]

On ‎12‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 5:52 PM, Anastasis said:

go home market you’re drunk. 

you just had to say something

[Blotto 23525]

11 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Still long AAPL. As a technology company...it is time for us to see something new...a TV...automous technology...I’m hoping it’s not far off for the next great product.

They better reanimate Steve Jobs then, because Tim Cook is not a visionary. He's just very good at squeezing every last penny of profit out of the house that Steve built

[Llano Estacado 1257]

That’s what kids are for.

You like Bubble guppies, Paw patrol, and PJ masks far more than I do apparently.