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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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McCroskey

McCroskey 1511

Posted
Posted
I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.
As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 
Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

He posted his screen after close last Friday and this is what he showed. What I find funny is he was telling people he was up like 15k on the year, but this makes it look like he’s down over $2MM?? I don’t know for sure.

621bd68103d404028b4714580c6e0309.jpg


a2b5dc62c263c8104febfecf85679be2.jpg


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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10783

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3 minutes ago, McCroskey said:


He posted his screen after close last Friday and this is what he showed. What I find funny is he was telling people he was up like 15k on the year, but this makes it look like he’s down over $2MM?? I don’t know for sure.

621bd68103d404028b4714580c6e0309.jpg


a2b5dc62c263c8104febfecf85679be2.jpg


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I think most of that $2mm is unrealized losses on some Penn he bought in the high 20’s after his deal closed. 

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McCroskey

McCroskey 1511

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4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I think most of that $2mm is unrealized losses on some Penn he bought in the high 20’s after his deal closed. 

Makes sense.  His claim was he loaded the account with 5.17 mill to start the year and now he has 5.185 mil, even after the first million dollar Boeing debacle.

It's entertaining to watch, that's for sure.  Looks like he missed out on a nice six-figure payout on Lulu too...sold 8000 shares Friday @ 181...it closed yesterday at ~195 and is set to open today at ~201, lol.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11879

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2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

 

I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.

As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 

Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

I'm not saying he isn't trading, or trading real money. 

 

However, it is all about promotion of barstool sports.  He has absolutely gotten value out of this.

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HouTex

HouTex 1943

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45 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Well you should know that it's very difficult if not impossible to time the market.    Good luck trying to determine when to get back in.

This right here.  I came close to getting out last week.  The market had come back decently from the low and the outlook was all doom and gloom and no one was even hinting at restarting the economy.  My broker (yes, I still call him that) talked me off the ledge for that reason and others.  I still haven't sold anything and I'm going to stick it out.  I'm still 7-10 years from retirement, but if I was 3-5 years away things would be different.

Had I sold everything and not gotten back in within a day or so (and some of my funds have a 30 day waiting period to get back in) I already would have "lost" about 10% upside opportunity.  Bottom line is that EuroHorn's point is well taken--you can't know when to get back in unless you have a crystal ball that works.

IMO, for a long term investor, this is one of the best buying opportunities you'll ever see.

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Blotto

Blotto 24037

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One year ago, the Nasdaq and S&P were  hitting  all-time highs. One year later the global economy looks a lot different, certainly a hell of a lot shakier. Nasdaq basically flat and S&P down ~6.5%. I realize the market and the economy are not the same thing and the market has been disconnected from reality for awhile, but when the quarterly earnings start rolling in, I will be interested to see how they align to this period last year. Will it have any effect? Who the fuck knows with the Fed printing press. 

image.thumb.png.18140f441f73d206dfba847ab56b1edb.png

 

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19377

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yeap

6 minutes ago, HouTex said:

IMO, for a long term investor, this is one of the best buying opportunities you'll ever see.

Yes, but you would have needed to sold off at some prior point to fund this current buying opportunity (assuming we're not introducing new money to the piggybank, of course)

 

5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

One year ago, the Nasdaq and S&P were  hitting  all-time highs. One year later the global economy looks a lot different, certainly a hell of a lot shakier. Nasdaq basically flat and S&P down ~6.5%. I realize the market and the economy are not the same thing and the market has been disconnected from reality for awhile, but when the quarterly earnings start rolling in, I will be interested to see how they align to this period last year. Will it have any effect? Who the fuck knows with the Fed printing press.

 

Yes... this upcomig week be intedasting when the big Q1 numbers come out

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 42

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Just wrote a smidge of covered calls for next Friday on QQQ, gotta get my gambling fix. $207 @$2.20 in 10 days; it’s at $199.6. Only way I kick myself is if it’s truly a V and approaches Feb highs in 10 days. Otherwise I pay for this weeks grocery delivery. Let it rain TP!!!
 

 

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

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I don't see how the markets don't go lower. Almost every company except CPG is withdrawing guidance and unlikely until Q4 to have a reliable forecast. We have no clue of the second, third order knock on effects to the economy. With that said,  I was completely wrong about the markets in 2019 so....The FED prints money like brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

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38 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

original_205086873.gif

as much as I believe the story that is telling; I've learned a costly lesson in how much infinite Fed can prop up the market.
So I'm investing gambling now by buying both out of the money puts and calls - and I'll likely get fucked by that bitch named theta and an almost flat market for the next 60 days.
nobody forcing me to do it, but I'm bending over and asking for another please

BB G3: Louisiana @ Sam Houston State

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

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No way we’re in Stage 4 as the following describes.
Content to stay (mostly) on the sidelines.
I think we have at least 6 more months of this. I think a train wreck is coming Oct/Nov when Q3 earnings are announced (the first quarter when things are supposed to be somewhat “back to normal”)...which may also coincide with the virus ramping back up.
Of course by then, the market may be back up to early 2020 levels and only fall back to where we are today.

And of course Brrr money being the complete wild card in all of this, who really knows

Stage three is stabilization. The panic subsides but the situation remains grim. Investors believed during the first stage that stock prices slide on a whim. Now they realize that equities stumbled for good reason, and that until that reason is eliminated, they will continue to struggle. Shareholders’ losses will not soon be recouped.

It appeared that’s where we were on March 30. Stocks halted their decline and even rebounded a little, thereby ending the impression that they will do nothing but fall.

This period is marked by turbulence. Stocks rally, sometimes furiously, only to be knocked back down. Investor sentiment varies between guarded optimism that the end is at least remotely in sight, and despair that the hope was false. This is typically the bear market’s longest period, extending for several months. (Several years for The Great Depression, but we do not wish to emulate that example.)

Stage four is anticipation. This is when stocks start their recovery. As with the bear market’s beginning, almost nobody recognizes its end until after the fact. The news at the time tends to be almost unrelievedly grim, accompanied by articles about how stocks’ golden days have passed. However, some investors perceive economic improvement distantly in the future. They make their bids, and stocks begin to rise

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TornACL

TornACL 7792

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Just now, UTexasFight said:


I think we have at least 6 more months of this. I think a train wreck is coming Oct/Nov when Q3 earnings are announced (the first quarter when things are supposed to be somewhat “back to normal”)...which may also coincide with the virus ramping back up.
Of course by then, the market may be back up to early 2020 levels and only fall back to where we are today.

 

 

I guess I would wonder why Q3 wouldn't already be in the process of being priced into the market now. I mean I can't imagine at this point anyone will be surprised by those gory numbers. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

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I’m just saying gory numbers people are expecting aren’t gory enough.

People aren’t going to rush out and spend tons of money the moment the 29% of the economy that’s currently closed re-opens.
Some will, but most(assuming they have any income) I bet will be saving every penny they can to build some sort of financial cushion to survive 2-3 months after almost losing their homes the first go round.

But then, that’s where brrr money will, I’m sure, step in and solve everything again.

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stone oak

stone oak 639

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9 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

People aren’t going to rush out and spend tons of money the moment the 29% of the economy that’s currently closed re-opens.
Some will, but most(assuming they have any income) I bet will be saving every penny they can to build some sort of financial cushion to survive 2-3 months after almost losing their homes the first go round.

Do you even 'Merica bro?

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bluto

bluto 4999

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I’m with txfight even though it opposes fed machine. All this market exuberance this week is based on euro flattening the curve and some areas around US seeing a thin ray of sun (both are good news). The issue is nobody knows wtf the back side of this looks like as the only country to have semi re-emerged is China and nobody trusts their shit. There’s no real free world precedent for what the backside of the curve looks like.

I would gladly sacrifice mistiming the bottom if it meant the market/economy/virus were all heading in the right direction on solid foundation, but I don’t think that’s the case currently.

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52-80

52-80 19377

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Posted (edited)

2 countries are guiding towards relaxing their distancing restrictions.

scandinavia looks to loosen the reigns next week, given same trajectory of infections.

feds quick intervention seem to stave off the big selloff - trading volume been settling down for a while now

 

i think we can go lower.  and we can go flat-for-long.  but i dont see a prolonged, precipitous drop from here.

 

but what do i know.  im always sticking my usb in the wrong way

Edited by 52-80
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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1598

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Over the last 2.5 weeks I've gone from 50% cash in the 401k to 20% but dreaded every single re-allocation because it felt like chasing.  I hate chasing.

Please tell me you're close to retirement age.  If you are under 50 or even a little older there is no reason to go to cash in your 401(K), ever. 

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Loco

Loco 3754

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22 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Please tell me you're close to retirement age.  If you are under 50 or even a little older there is no reason to go to cash in your 401(K), ever. 

Counterpoint:  maybe you saw the handwritting on the wall and the pathetic response rolled out by your government and got out prior to the big declines.  I'm sitting in cash and will not try to catch the knife, this is NOT the bottom.  We are in a big ass recession... This will not be better anytime soon.  

All that said, I'll keep my powder dry and try to pick up great companies on the cheap in the 3rd or 4th Q.  Worked in 2008 and it'll work again.

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52-80

52-80 19377

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15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

lol fudge you’re in the boat swirling around the whirlpool with me now.  I am in SOXS at 14.35 but will just let it ride for the rest of the week.

why dont you save yourself the trouble of getting raped by the public markets and just sell it to me for 5$ per

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

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20 minutes ago, nycHorn said:

With the long weekend coming Thursday might be a big sell off day.

And Thursday will also be first time unemployment claims - another 7 digit number, below last weeks 6+ million but I'm guessing it still is over 1.5 million as there were states that implemented work from home, stay at home, don't fucking mingle with people or you spread the pandemic.

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TexasGolf

TexasGolf 5466

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11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

And Thursday will also be first time unemployment claims - another 7 digit number, below last weeks 6+ million but I'm guessing it still is over 1.5 million as there were states that implemented work from home, stay at home, don't fucking mingle with people or you spread the pandemic.

already priced in....brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

another 200B coming for SBA loans ?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21346

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26 minutes ago, Loco said:

Counterpoint:  maybe you saw the handwritting on the wall and the pathetic response rolled out by your government and got out prior to the big declines.  I'm sitting in cash and will not try to catch the knife, this is NOT the bottom.  We are in a big ass recession... This will not be better anytime soon.  

All that said, I'll keep my powder dry and try to pick up great companies on the cheap in the 3rd or 4th Q.  Worked in 2008 and it'll work again.

I'm thinking dipping back to 2400 is pretty much a guarantee and I'd bet on 2250 neighborhood.  But with this run and actual COVID numbers beginning to plateau in NYC the bottom may not get below 2100 which was a very real possibility just a couple weeks ago.  

People don't seem to understand once the shelter at home orders are lifted we still have a LONG ways to go.  Restaurants will likely be at 25%-50% capacity.  Airlines will be very limited.  Those industries don't have the best margins anyway so many will still be losing money or refuse to open - unless forced, like airlines. 

No large sporting events with crowds. College football or NFL game days are a whole economy themselves in the cities where they are hosted...many companies have shed decades of fat very quickly.  They'll learn to operate more efficiently when they return...who is to say some of these jobs ever comeback?  That may sounds like a doomsday scenario but it's all very realistic imo. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

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1 minute ago, TexasGolf said:

already priced in....brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

another 200B coming for SBA loans ?

200B, meh - there is another stimulus package in the works for at least another$1T
brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr - I'm going to invest in paper and ink from all the printing the Fed is doing (atlhough it is all done electronically, except for those $1T bills the Treasury deposits into the Fed to oil the printing machine)

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19465

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39 minutes ago, Loco said:

Counterpoint:  maybe you saw the handwritting on the wall and the pathetic response rolled out by your government and got out prior to the big declines.  I'm sitting in cash and will not try to catch the knife, this is NOT the bottom.  We are in a big ass recession... This will not be better anytime soon.  

All that said, I'll keep my powder dry and try to pick up great companies on the cheap in the 3rd or 4th Q.  Worked in 2008 and it'll work again.

This is almost exactly what happened.   I never went 100% cash (and never will) but I went to my highest cash allotment on Feb 24, the first day after Italy started getting its ass kicked.  The market had been running too hot for too long and needed a catalyst to go lower.  This seemed like something the Fed couldn't just print its way out of due to demand destruction; but looks like I was wrong on that one too.  Thankfully it took the market almost a month to decide demand doesn't matter any more and by that time I have scaled back in to 80%.

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