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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 597

Posted
Posted
Thank goodness for slack, I’ve bled them for damn near all my gains. & I still think they’ll get back above $30

(I’m an idiot so you’re prob better to fade me/it)

Holding on for $40... might take a few months but I like what I’m seeing.


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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50035

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, bluto said:

Thank goodness for slack, I’ve bled them for damn near all my gains. & I still think they’ll get back above $30.  
(I’m an idiot so you’re prob better to fade me/it)

 

2 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Holding on for $40... might take a few months but I like what I’m seeing.

Nice jump today... funny that the stock symbol is WORK

  • Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK)

At close:  28.03.  +2.71.   (+10.70%)

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

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Posted


The depth of downturn the U.S. is now undergoing appears unlike anything experienced since the end of World War II. Economists at Goldman Sachs, for example, believe that gross domestic product contracted at a 9% annual rate in the first quarter and forecast that it will fall an annualized 34% in the second quarter. Now consider the relatively mild recession that occurred following the dot-com bust. In the fourth quarter of 2001, when the economy troughed, GDP was down 1% from a year earlier. Yet the hit to profits was massive, with S&P 500 operating profits down 23.2% from year earlier in the first quarter, 39.4% in the second, 35.4% in the third and 24.2% in fourth, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Based on current analyst estimates, the S&P trades at nearly 19 times expected earnings over the next year—roughly where the forward price/earnings ratio was in early February, before coronavirus worries took hold. Whether one finds that reassuring or worrisome, the actual figure is almost certainly much higher. Investors could be in for a rude awakening in the months ahead.
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19475

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

Well shit. 
Everything on the Nasdaq is money.

If it’s tech, people are buying.

Can I still get in on that Pets.com action?

Big money is leaving the financials and energy and moving into tech.  One of the signs of a market "top" or at least intermediate top is when just a select few stocks are carrying all the gains for the overall market.

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Captainant

Captainant 28600

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The DJIA (and the current market generally) is completely decoupled from reality. Since March 23, unemployment has gone from 4.4% to over 15% with more than 20 MILLION new unemployment claims - but the DJIA has increased in value by 25% to $23,450 (as of my posting this).

This "pricing in" shit sure is wacky.

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Parliament

Parliament 14619

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11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The DJIA (and the current market generally) is completely decoupled from reality. Since March 23, unemployment has gone from 4.4% to over 15% with more than 20 MILLION new unemployment claims - but the DJIA has increased in value by 25% to $23,450 (as of my posting this).

This "pricing in" shit sure is wacky.

Bro, do you even, "Brrrrrrrrr."

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32107

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The DJIA (and the current market generally) is completely decoupled from reality. Since March 23, unemployment has gone from 4.4% to over 15% with more than 20 MILLION new unemployment claims - but the DJIA has increased in value by 25% to $23,450 (as of my posting this).

This "pricing in" shit sure is wacky.

The DJIA is not some general economic measure. 

If it were up from relative highs, that would be one thing, but it's up from historic relative lows that resulted from panic selling that "priced in" something worse than maybe reality.  

The DJIA is composed of the largest corporations, who are probably not the source of unemployment, and if they are, theyre just trimming labor costs.

This is one of the more rational "price moves" the market makes.

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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On 4/14/2020 at 6:45 PM, gsoda3 said:
On 4/14/2020 at 6:34 PM, washparkhorn said:
$10 Trillion in liquidity to Wall Street. 
Main Street filled with cars in line for food banks. 
A Tale of Two Cities. 
If there is aid going to Main Street, please do not bitch about the debt and deficit. 

10 trillion hasn't gone to Wall Street. Nor will it.

Even CNBC acknowledges this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/feds-main-street-problem-worries-that-money-wont-go-where-its-needed.html

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1404

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5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The DJIA is not some general economic measure. 

If it were up from relative highs, that would be one thing, but it's up from historic relative lows that resulted from panic selling that "priced in" something worse than maybe reality.  

The DJIA is composed of the largest corporations, who are probably not the source of unemployment, and if they are, theyre just trimming labor costs.

This is one of the more rational "price moves" the market makes.

But if you take away the run up in late 2019-early 2020 the NASDAQ and S&P are near all time highs.  The DJIA is lagging a little, but it's still only down a couple of thousand points from where it was for the first half of 2019.  The markets don't seem to agree with my negative sentiment, so I guess I'm wrong on this.  It just seems like I'm taking crazy pills.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted

from cnbc.

I've bolded everything here done for wall street and italicized anything that requires actual lending. 

 

Quote

For its part, here’s a look at action the Fed has taken in just the past six weeks:

  • March 3 — An emergency 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut.
  • March 15 — Another 1 percentage point rate cut, taking the Fed’s benchmark for short-term lending down to near zero.
  • March 15 — At the same time as the second rate cut, the Fed lowered the rate for banks to borrow at the discount window by 1.5 percentage points and cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks to zero.
  • March 17 — In the first of a slew of measures aimed at keeping credit flowing through the financial system, the Fed said it would start buying commercial paper, or the short-term unsecured debt that businesses rely on for operational cash.
  • March 18 — Another facility providing credit to keep money markets functioning properly.
  • March 19 — A new operation focused on currency swaps aimed at other institutions in need of dollar-denominated assets.
  • March 20 — An operation headed by the Boston Fed to buy municipal debt.
  • March 23 — An expansion of the Fed’s originally announced asset purchases, which were supposed to max out at $700 billion but now are unlimited depending on the need to support markets and the economy. The purchases already have expanded the Fed’s holdings on its balance sheet by more than $2 trillion.
  • March 23 — In addition to the next leg of quantitative easing, the Fed also announced a $300 billion credit program for businesses and consumers. The initiatives include two credit facilities for large employers, an expanded Term Asset-Banked Loan Facility for businesses and consumers through the Small Business Administration, and an expanded money market facility that includes municipal debt and certificates of deposits.
  • April 6 — An announcement that the Fed will provide support to the Treasury’s Payment Protection Program aimed at incentivizing businesses not to lay off employees during the coronavirus-induced shutdown.
  • April 8 — A modification for the asset restriction it has placed on scandal-plagued Wells Fargo to allow the third-biggest U.S. bank to participate in the business lending programs.
  • April 9 — The coup de grace, a $2.3 trillion lending program that will extend credit to banks that issue PPP loans, purchase up to $600 billion in loans issued through the Main Street program to medium-sized firms. The moves also involve secondary corporate credit facilities that will allow the Fed to buy corporate bonds from “fallen angels” that have slid into downgrades, and a $500 billion program to buy bonds from state and municipal governments.

In all, the programs could combine to provide more than $6 trillion of liquidity to the financial and business system.

 

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Continental Op

Continental Op 3934

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

I gotta be honest, "two tugs of a dead dog's dick" is a new one for me. I'm stealing it.

Picked that one up from a coworker who I also overheard tell someone that he could write everything the other person knew about something on his cock with a mop.  That guy was a cornucopia of masterful bon mots.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

You said "nor will it"

  Reveal hidden contents

it will

 

how is the fed going to spend 10 T on wall street?  and if you're going to say repos, they don't count.  they're short term collateralized loans done all the time, just now more than they'ev ever done.

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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19 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

how is the fed going to spend 10 T on wall street?  and if you're going to say repos, they don't count.  they're short term collateralized loans done all the time, just now more than they'ev ever done.

So you don't count the arbitrage?  That's not the only way of course, all the expanded "assets" that they are purchasing are to bail out Wall St, not Main St.  Is it your contention that the expanding Feb balance sheet is going straight to Main St?

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

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1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

So you don't count the arbitrage?  That's not the only way of course, all the expanded "assets" that they are purchasing are to bail out Wall St, not Main St.  Is it your contention that the expanding Feb balance sheet is going straight to Main St?

the fed isn't in the business of arbitrage so i'm not sure what you're referring to....?

the assets increasing in the fed's balance sheet aren't all going to wall street.  any type of transaction where the bank pays* money to someone is an asset.  so that asset number you hear every thursday after the close is a snapshot in time of the value of their "cash" transactions.  that number has increased from a little over $4T before 3/11/2020 to now a little over $6T.  that includes the sum total of everything the fed has transacted since 3/11/2020:  repos, corporate bond purchases, muni bond purchases, CARES act, even dollar line swaps with other (new) central banks.

so if you're looking for a money amount that's going straight to wall street, looking at the fed's balance sheet assets isn't the way to do it.  that number certainly includes money going to wall street but even that number as it stands is less than $2T.  to find the exact number you'll have to dig a lot deeper.  a couple posts back i bolded what parts of the fed actions have been directed at wall street (and a couple of those bolded actually include main street also), but even within those actions you would hard pressed to call several of those line items "bailing" out wall street. 

*most of the time, as in the case of repos, no cash changes hand the way you would imagine like a craigslist deal.  instead they're accounting entries and if say a bank ever needs actual cash then they would facilitate that transfer.   remember, the fed's main purpose is to keep the financial system stable and most of their efforts are usually aimed at establishing the proper interest rate.

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