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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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aggie08

aggie08 21849

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Admittedly I've been staying on the sideline because I couldn't imagine the S&P500 not falling to 2000. 

Hell, it still might (unlikely). I've generally been operating under the assumption that, historically speaking, that first bounce back after a rapid decline is usually false, even if it lasts for a few weeks. And a prolonged gradual drop is likely coming. But precedence doesn't seem to make a shit lately, so who knows.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55892

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

The DJIA is not some general economic measure. 

If it were up from relative highs, that would be one thing, but it's up from historic relative lows that resulted from panic selling that "priced in" something worse than maybe reality.  

The DJIA is composed of the largest corporations, who are probably not the source of unemployment, and if they are, theyre just trimming labor costs.

This is one of the more rational "price moves" the market makes.

Will Ferrell Reaction GIF

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HouTex

HouTex 1943

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I’m up 5% since Jan 31.  That’s ridiculous.

Oil below $18.  Jeez.

One of my funds, albeit not a majority of my investments, is up almost 20% year to date.  Check out Alkeon.  That guy has nailed it this year.  He had a large short position before the melt down--I was up around 5% YTD in that fund when the Dow was around 19,000, and then he has been trending long since pretty much around the bottom.  

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50035

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, GRHorn said:

If you were looking to get short and haven’t yet, today might be the day.

 

 

giphy.gif

Rally today seems crazy... May have to change name of this thread... LOL

DJIA          up 704pts

SP500        up 75pts

NASDAQ    up 117pts

 

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1404

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

I don't think anyone expected the market to be back to the point where it's looking to end of the trading day, but on the other hand, it's a little funny to look back a few weeks ago and people were talking about how S&P would be below 1,000 and DOW might re-test the March 2009 low of ~6,800.

I don't know that we'll test the March 2009 lows, but I think we're going to blow past the March 2019 lows at some point.   Probably in the minority on that though. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5459

Posted
Posted

At some point earnings are going to be shit.  I have a feeling the market has been riding on the expectation of continued good news.  
 

In a way I hope I’m wrong and we see the stonk surge continue because it definitely contributes to a wealth effect in consumer confidence but I feel like there is still a big fall to come soon.

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bullzak

bullzak 433

Posted
Posted

S&P down 1% YOY for this date. 

Crazy. 

I am long but not feeling super comfortable about it. The numbers will be horrific. 

But fighting the Fed has never been a winner either. 

I could see us bouncing around in a wide range the rest of the year. 2400-2800 something like that. Good opportunities if you are a trader and can stomach that. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15453

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

The rubber will hit the road when forecast earning meet actuals. Currently, many companies are not dramatically lowering their forecasts. I surmise they are doing this so they aren't separated from the heard as a weak link and hope to blend in when the entire heard shows up sick to minimize as best as possible the hit.

I herd ya

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19475

Posted
Posted

This week's earnings:  https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings?from=2020-04-19&to=2020-04-25&day=2020-04-20

Monday

UAL amc
IBM amc
HAL bmo

 

Tuesday

JBLU bmo
CB amc
KO bmo
LMT bmo
TRV bmo
CMG amc
NFLX amc
MAN bmo
PM bmo
TXN amc

 

Wednesday

AA amc
DAL bmo
T bmo
LVS amc
KMB bmo

 

Thursday

LUV bmo
LLY bmo
HSY bmo
INTC amc
UNP bmo
DPZ bmo

 

Friday

AAL bmo
AXP bmo
VZ bmo


 

 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3081

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This week's earnings:  https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings?from=2020-04-19&to=2020-04-25&day=2020-04-20

Monday

UAL amc
IBM amc
HAL bmo

 

Tuesday

JBLU bmo
CB amc
KO bmo
LMT bmo
TRV bmo
CMG amc
NFLX amc
MAN bmo
PM bmo
TXN amc

 

Wednesday

AA amc
DAL bmo
T bmo
LVS amc
KMB bmo

 

Thursday

LUV bmo
LLY bmo
HSY bmo
INTC amc
UNP bmo
DPZ bmo

 

Friday

AAL bmo
AXP bmo
VZ bmo


 

 

Isn’t AMZN Thursday also?

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

Posted
Posted
Yeah.  I went aggressive as shit and recaptured all my losses.  But I don't think it's worth it right now.  It's about to get murdered.  I'm dumping straight to cash come Monday morning.  



Short sell­ers have re­vived their wa­gers against the stock mar­ket in re­cent weeks, tak­ing their most ag­gres­sive po­si­tions in years.

Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the big­gest ex­change-traded fund track­ing the broad in­dex, rose to $68.1 bil­lion last week, the high­est level in data go­ing back to Jan­uary 2016, ac­cord­ing to fi­nan­cial an­a­lyt­ics com­pany S3 Part­ners. That was up from $41.7 bil­lion at the be­gin­ning of 2020 and $41.2 bil­lion a year ago.
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Tailgate

Tailgate 3081

Posted
Posted (edited)

Amazon.com, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 04/23/2020. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 11 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $6.34. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $7.09.
 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amzn/earnings

EDIT- I’ve seen 4/30 in some reports also...odd it’s not pegged the same everywhere.

Edited by Tailgate
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Blotto

Blotto 24044

Posted
Posted

While you could rely on an algorithm based on a company's  historical reporting dates, there is a fringe school of thought that suggests you could just check the company's IR page:

https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazoncom-webcast-first-quarter-2020-financial-results

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 16, 2020-- Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced today that it will hold a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2020 financial results on April 30, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET.

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Blotto

Blotto 24044

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Originally posted in the regular Covid19 thread, I didn't want to sidetrack that discussion, so moving it here. How many companies are going to fail, both public and private, because of the staggering debt load shoved up their ass so that private equity firms can extract their pound of flesh. Neiman is sitting on a shitload of debt from not one, but two LBOs in the last 15 years. Obviously, Neiman Marcus has its own share of issues with the shift to online commerce, but something tells me they wouldn't be this turbo fucked without all the LBO debt. Since they are still private, I guess most of the pain in this case will be absorbed by the debt holders, assuming a restructuring is possible, but I expect you will see more and more bankruptcies caused by this bullshit. And when the avalanche gets going, we all get to spread our cheeks and pick up the tab at the end of the day.

spacer.png

Found this quote from a principal of one PE firm(CAZ Investments, unrelated to the Neiman deals), amusing:

Quote

“There’s a fine line a private equity firm has to walk between delivering the best returns they can for their limited partners,” Zook says, and “making sure that they’re good stewards of the companies they acquire.”

Lulz, I'm sure I can guess which side of that "fine line" PE firms reside  99% of the time. 

Edited by Blotto
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32107

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Originally posted in the regular Covid19 thread, I didn't want to sidetrack that discussion, so moving it here. How many companies are going to fail, both public and private, because of the staggering debt load shoved shoved up their ass so that private equity firms can extract their pound of flesh. Neiman is sitting on a shitload of debt from not one, but two LBOs in the last 15 years. Obviously, Neiman Marcus has its own share of issues with the shift to online commerce, but something tells me they wouldn't be this turbo fucked without all the LBO debt. Since they are still private, I guess most of the pain in this case will be absorbed by the debt holders, assuming a restructuring is possible, but I expect you will see more and more bankruptcies caused by this bullshit. And when the avalanche gets going, we all get to spread our cheeks and pick up the tab at the end of the day.

spacer.png

Found this quote from a principal of one PE firm(CAZ Investments, unrelated to the Neiman deals), amusing:

Lulz, I'm sure I can guess which side of that "fine line" PE firms reside  99% of the time. 

A great question is why the fuck is the Canada Pension Plan investing in LBOs?  If the debt isn't junk, it's got to be close.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 50035

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

Short sell­ers have re­vived their wa­gers against the stock mar­ket in re­cent weeks, tak­ing their most ag­gres­sive po­si­tions in years.   Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the big­gest ex­change-traded fund track­ing the broad in­dex, rose to $68.1 bil­lion last week, the high­est level in data go­ing back to Jan­uary 2016, ac­cord­ing to fi­nan­cial an­a­lyt­ics com­pany S3 Part­ners. That was up from $41.7 bil­lion at the be­gin­ning of 2020 and $41.2 bil­lion a year ago.

 

Unless the market drops immediately at the open tomorrow, would expect to see more increases in short positions... 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Blotto

Blotto 24044

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

A great question is why the fuck is the Canada Pension Plan investing in LBOs?  If the debt isn't junk, it's got to be close.

Don't know anything about the Canadian Pension Plan, but I'm guessing most pension funds have had a hell of a time matching the presumed long-term rate of return that  underpins their ability to meet obligations. With bond market returns plunging, pensions have had to turn to riskier investments to find the kind of yield they desperately need. I'm sure this trend will end well for pensioners the world over, like it always does.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55892

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Blotto said:

Don't know anything about the Canadian Pension Plan, but I'm guessing most pension funds have had a hell of a time matching the presumed long-term rate of return that  underpins their ability to meet obligations. With bond market returns plunging, pensions have had to turn to riskier investments to find the kind of yield they desperately need. I'm sure this trend will end well for pensioners the world over, like it always does.

A lot of pension funds are prohibited from investing in bonds that are below investment grade.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32107

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Blotto said:

Don't know anything about the Canadian Pension Plan, but I'm guessing most pension funds have had a hell of a time matching the presumed long-term rate of return that  underpins their ability to meet obligations. With bond market returns plunging, pensions have had to turn to riskier investments to find the kind of yield they desperately need. I'm sure this trend will end well for pensioners the world over, like it always does.

 

22 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

A lot of pension funds are prohibited from investing in bonds that are below investment grade.

Thus my question.  Seems like bad stewardship, but pension funds have been doing that for a while now.

Today, a defined benefit pension seems like a really bad idea, but they were the standard retirement plan for quite some time.  Did they ever really work or were they always a Ponzi scheme?

Edited by TwiceHorn
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