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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted

CNBC started crowing about a V shape recovery literally 2 days ago, so of course we have a massive sell-off this morning. The real question is how much of a quick shock like this is needed to trigger a broader sell-off. We've been in here bitching for literally months now that the market is completely ignoring the fundamentals.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19170

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I also noticed a few headlines Monday / Tuesday that "analysts" at Morgan Stanley and Goldman were crowing about how the worst was behind us and it was time to load up.  Just like these same guys were saying to buy the stonks that were on sale in early March right before things started really getting jiggy.

No idea what the sentiment indicator will be to signal this pullback is done or if there even will be one; but probably when most headlines start focusing on second wave that will be something to consider.  When the Kardashian updates get pushed to the bottom of Yahoo and are replaced with tales of death and despair that's a good indicator.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9421

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Well this would have been nice to have read yesterday instead of this morning

“Oil prices are defying supply-demand fundamentals. Rather than surging on supply and demand fundamentals, oil prices have ridden along with other risky assets, such as stocks. Analysts and traders worry the rebound has been too sharp and could prove short-lived.”

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52-80

52-80 19137

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I also noticed a few headlines Monday / Tuesday that "analysts" at Morgan Stanley and Goldman were crowing about how the worst was behind us and it was time to load up.  Just like these same guys were saying to buy the stonks that were on sale in early March right before things started really getting jiggy.

No idea what the sentiment indicator will be to signal this pullback is done or if there even will be one; but probably when most headlines start focusing on second wave that will be something to consider.  When the Kardashian updates get pushed to the bottom of Yahoo and are replaced with tales of death and despair that's a good indicator.

they picked a bad day to stop drinking

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52-80

52-80 19137

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Or worse, they are doing what Wall Street was accused of doing in '08: pumping sunshine to lift prices to recover losses then dump everything when they're done.

IMO, theyre just throwing darts like the rest of us.  their analysts ratings dont historically track better than anyone else.  their prop dont perform better than anyone else.  but they are paid to make prognostication

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52-80

52-80 19137

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

{whisper} don't look at the DJIA - it is a narrow market indicator, 1 or 2 good/bad components skew the results more than broader indicators (S&P 500, Russell 2000, etc)

 

SP down 2.5% Russel down 4.3%

my IWMp isnt complaining

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5536

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Posted
8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

SP down 2.5% Russel down 4.3%

my IWMp isnt complaining

S&P opens down 2.5%, NASDAQ down 2.1%, Russell 2000 down 2.6% -- DJIA bounces to down 2.8% (BA down 9.6%, RTX & XOM both down over 6%

Also this 4 year old article seem strangely relevant 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-hilarious-cartoons-about-the-stock-market-panic-2016-01-21

especially this

View image on Twitter

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15338

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Cramer interviewing politicians makes me fucking cringe.  Doesn't matter who.  He takes on this pitch with his voice that irritates the hell out of me. 

He can be highly annoying at times, but he’s had some incredible rants in market meltdowns that actually helped get some policy changes moving quickly.   

 

 

Edited by Trey3216
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

Posted
Posted

S/P sub 2800 is all but guaranteed...but when?  Have some bullets left.  Still 25% cash and I'm not putting shit in until we drop well below this.  Oil still up from where I got in...if it gets back to where it was we'll be at right about S/P 2700/2800 and I'll fire more bullets.  But that dead cat has some serious bounce to it...

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19170

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

S/P sub 2800 is all but guaranteed...but when?  Have some bullets left.  Still 25% cash and I'm not putting shit in until we drop well below this.  Oil still up from where I got in...if it gets back to where it was we'll be at right about S/P 2700/2800 and I'll fire more bullets.  But that dead cat has some serious bounce to it...

I thought 2,000 was all but guaranteed.

picnic_table_bear.jpg

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I thought 2,000 was all but guaranteed.

picnic_table_bear.jpg

Well, lots of dumbass opinions...my dumbass opinion was never that low.  If you look back I was more moderate...but still patient bear.  I hedged with oil...it crashes and I have bullets - it doesn't and I've had a hell of a run.  I did think any crash back to earth was going to be in fall - but I also didn't see THIS much run coming the last few weeks.  So in conclusion...muledick.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5536

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

S/P sub 2800 is all but guaranteed...but when?  Have some bullets left.  Still 25% cash and I'm not putting shit in until we drop well below this.  Oil still up from where I got in...if it gets back to where it was we'll be at right about S/P 2700/2800 and I'll fire more bullets.  But that dead cat has some serious bounce to it...

Looks like somebody forgot a couple of things:

a) it is already priced in
ii) Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

(actually looking at buying some SPY puts, as the Fed isn't going to do anything today, IMO, and the unease will grow if/when people realize the economy isn't jumping back to capacity - and that jump has already been priced in) - glad I sold most of my BA puts on Mon/Tues...it's amazing to see BA go from low 110's to 234 back down to about 175 all in a month, hell the drop is in about 4 days.

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I had a 'pro' tell me he bought into Boeing yesterday.  Ouch. 

I'm considering buying $BA sub $180. If O&G comes down a bit more I'll likely just add to what I already bought a month or two ago on $XOM and $OKE. Other than that seeing S&P come down a few hundred points so I can buy SPY and a few other stocks that I have not picked up yet.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19170

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Well, lots of dumbass opinions...my dumbass opinion was never that low.  If you look back I was more moderate...but still patient bear.  I hedged with oil...it crashes and I have bullets - it doesn't and I've had a hell of a run.  I did think any crash back to earth was going to be in fall - but I also didn't see THIS much run coming the last few weeks.  So in conclusion...muledick.

It's ok to admit mistakes.  Hell, I have to do it every day in this thread because I don't know shit.

But having a bit of fun as I watch the world burn, then rise from the ashes, then burn again (maybe?).

 

On 3/20/2020 at 3:30 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Been saying this forever.  The hospitals will finally be overflowing this weekend.  I'm not trying to be crass...it's just been very obvious to anyone on the inside that this was coming.  Just a matter of when.  I really feel that is when we go 2k and below - well that and the unemployment numbers coming out.  2000 seems very much a when, not an if to me.  Either way, I'm waiting until that number OR real progress w the virus to put a cent back in. 

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It's ok to admit mistakes.  Hell, I have to do it every day in this thread because I don't know shit.

But having a bit of fun as I watch the world burn, then rise from the ashes, then burn again (maybe?).

 

 

I’ll rep that.  It was in the middle of the endless drops those couple days.  But I’ve had several more moderate posts.  Probably 6-8 saying 2600-2800 range.  But I’ve admit a million times I don’t know where this run came from and didn’t see it - that’s the beauty of the market...just when you think you were right/wrong, it will show you don’t know shit.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
Should have put beauty in quotes.
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I'm considering buying $BA sub $180. If O&G comes down a bit more I'll likely just add to what I already bought a month or two ago on $XOM and $OKE. Other than that seeing S&P come down a few hundred points so I can buy SPY and a few other stocks that I have not picked up yet.

I REALLY want to buy more OKE right now but will sit on my hands.  Probably some up/down next few weeks +/- 5% of here until Powell brrrrrts us out of this again...

And this isn't some crazy drop, look where we were just 10 days ago.  As much as patient bear wants to celebrate, this really isn't shit.  

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bluto

bluto 4908

Posted
Posted
I REALLY want to buy more OKE right now but will sit on my hands.  Probably some up/down next few weeks +/- 5% of here until Powell brrrrrts us out of this again...
And this isn't some crazy drop, look where we were just 10 days ago.  As much as patient bear wants to celebrate, this really isn't shit.  

OKE just issued a shit ton of new shares fyi
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

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Posted
1 minute ago, bluto said:


OKE just issued a shit ton of new shares fyi

Yep, I have the ticker saved on my news feed and it hit bright and early...I actually looked at that before I looked at futures and felt better after I saw everything else burning.  I'll hold off. I've been good about not buying much last couple weeks.  Not gonna start now...

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21119

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


Ha
Good find
I read the posts up thread and thought “um. Hell no. I know for a fact chitown predicted 2,000.”

(I know this because I bought in—to some extent —on that doomsday mentality and missed out on most the subsequent run back over 3k).

Look at those couple days - who didn't predict sub 2200...the few weeks after I was more tempered.  And I also called getting out at 2800 before that 2000 post so I wasn't a total dummy.  But a dummy for sure. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15034

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Posted
I also noticed a few headlines Monday / Tuesday that "analysts" at Morgan Stanley and Goldman were crowing about how the worst was behind us and it was time to load up.  Just like these same guys were saying to buy the stonks that were on sale in early March right before things started really getting jiggy.
No idea what the sentiment indicator will be to signal this pullback is done or if there even will be one; but probably when most headlines start focusing on second wave that will be something to consider.  When the Kardashian updates get pushed to the bottom of Yahoo and are replaced with tales of death and despair that's a good indicator.

Can’t trust a thing those dirtbags ever say. They only say it after they’ve moved their $100M+ clients into or out of stocks.
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aggie08

aggie08 21481

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


Can’t trust a thing those dirtbags ever say. They only say it after they’ve moved their $100M+ clients into or out of stocks.

Man, remember in 2008 when they all went to jail--or were otherwise duly punished--for artificially and illegally propping up the market, so they could cash out before the bottom dropped? Those were the days...

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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Posted

The Fed signal yesterday - 

Quote

 

"The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections indicated the Fed expects a steep 6.5% contraction in real GDP in 2020, with an unemployment rate at 9.3%.

However, policymakers expect real GDP to rebound by 5.0% in 2021, with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%.

In its monetary policy decision, the Fed projected interest rates would remain near zero through 2022 and telegraphed that its pace of asset purchases would remain at minimum at the current rate."

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-june-11-2020-222011316.html

TLDR - nothing changed fundamentally. But - nothing changed in terms of a fiscal response sorely needed for a 6.5% contraction in the real economy.

For the real economy (and the market), let's hope we see a solid fiscal response soon. Until then, the Fed will keep using its tools. 

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