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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Blotto

Blotto 24018

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday the trade deal with China is “over,” and he linked the breakdown in part to Washington’s anger over Beijing’s not sounding the alarm earlier about the coronavirus outbreak.

“It’s over,” Navarro told Fox News in an interview when asked about the trade agreement. He said the “turning point” came when the United States learned about the spreading coronavirus only after a Chinese delegation had left Washington following the signing of the Phase 1 deal on Jan. 15.

“It was at a time when they had already sent hundreds of thousands of people to this country to spread that virus, and it was just minutes after wheels up when that plane took off that we began to hear about this pandemic,” Navarro said.

U.S.-China relations have reached their lowest point in years since the coronavirus pandemic that began in China hit the United States hard. President Donald Trump and his administration repeatedly have accused Beijing of not being transparent about the outbreak.

Seems like exactly what the markets needed, lulz. 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Blotto

Blotto 24018

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

giphy.gif

Thought you, in particular, might like that. I have a few july/aug puts, not many, but was sort of waiting until July before going in deep again. May have to accelerate that now. With covid ramping up again, Q2 earnings starting up in July , dumbfuckery in politics, etc.... its probably time to test those waters, and I have about 10X the cash I had when I went short the market in March. Sadly, puts are not nearly as cheap these days. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

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Not to CR it up, but seems like they trotted Navarro out there to see if there would be any reaction to the tough on China talk.  If not it would probably get an even bigger portion of the campaign message,  It certainly did get a reaction so they walked it back.  No harm, no foul, right?

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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To be successful at the game of musical chairs, you have to act immediately when the music stops.  Recognizing when the music stops is kind of an important facet of playing the game.  Pursuant to my previous post in the thread...

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The Fed has been cutting back for weeks on its asset purchases, and on its last weekly balance sheet, its total assets actually fell by $74 billion. Now Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey published a piece on Bloomberg Opinion today in which he wrote that these massive central-bank balance sheets – he was talking in global terms – “mustn’t become a permanent feature.”

“As economies recover, it’s likely that some of the exceptional monetary stimulus will need to be withdrawn,” he said. And this shedding of part of the bonds that had been purchased would happen before the central bank raises interest rates, he said.

This is the opposite of how the Fed did it last time: It started raising rates in December 2015 and started shedding Treasury securities and MBS in October 2017.

This time, the Fed front-loaded $2.8 trillion in QE and has already started shedding some of it even as FOMC members don’t see interest rate hikes through 2022. This is a big shift, of reducing the balance sheet first, and then raising rates.

In Bailey’s piece, there was no word of negative interest rates or yield curve control. What he is saying is that the balance sheet became the primary tool for adding stimulus and will become the primary tool for withdrawing stimulus, as interest rates remain near-zero.

And he is saying that the BOE’s balance sheet isn’t going to stay this massive for long and that it will undo some of the accommodation as the economy figures out where the new normal is.

The Fed is leading. The BOE is publishing the reasoning for other central banks to do the same.
...

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/06/22/plot-thickens-on-end-of-qe-start-of-shedding-assets/

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

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18 hours ago, Anastasis said:

mine got beat up. So I added 310 strikes with same expiration. 

I bet those 315 strikes are in the tasty range today - fucking JPow, the Brrrrr machine and the cult believers in "stocks only go up"
(then again I'm working on mining nominal cash  from short-term near money SPY calls)

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

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46 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I bet those 315 strikes are in the tasty range today - fucking JPow, the Brrrrr machine and the cult believers in "stocks only go up"
(then again I'm working on mining nominal cash  from short-term near money SPY calls)

I'm not touching any more until 320 gets in range. So probably by end of the week. LOL. 

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Superhero

Superhero 9022

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13 hours ago, Incredulity said:

It's not even, "stocks only go up".

It's Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.... only go up.

Thank christ I have some decent positions in AAPL and MSFT.  My stocks return would be utter dogshit without those.

AAPL up 12.8% since mid Feburary. AMZN up 29.4% in the same period. Glad I have these, because GOOG, BRK'B and SBUX have been shitting the bed.

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

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Dow premarket down about 300, S&P 500 premarket down about 35

When do you think they go green today?

Open, before noon, 2pm, close? (remember, they only go up)

Not: I've actually seen a couple of articles scout expected fund rebalancing at quarter end moving monies out of socks and into bonds, even with near zero interest rates

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

Posted
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2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Dow premarket down about 300, S&P 500 premarket down about 35

When do you think they go green today?

Open, before noon, 2pm, close? (remember, they only go up)

Not: I've actually seen a couple of articles scout expected fund rebalancing at quarter end moving monies out of socks and into bonds, even with near zero interest rates

Before noon Central time, say 11:00.

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nycHorn

nycHorn 3123

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Does anyone else use ToS?  If so, are you having problems getting into your account today?  Mine just goes to 'Installing Updates' and does fuck all after that.  Been happening for the last 2.5 hours already.

I got into my account no problem.
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52-80

52-80 19377

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31 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Does anyone else use ToS?  If so, are you having problems getting into your account today?  Mine just goes to 'Installing Updates' and does fuck all after that.  Been happening for the last 2.5 hours already.

my chinese and russian friends had no problems getting into your account today

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

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17 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Dow premarket down about 300, S&P 500 premarket down about 35

When do you think they go green today?

Open, before noon, 2pm, close? (remember, they only go up)

Not: I've actually seen a couple of articles scout expected fund rebalancing at quarter end moving monies out of socks and into bonds, even with near zero interest rates

What a loser?

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Blotto

Blotto 24018

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20 minutes ago, bluto said:

Have an ass talk theory that all those job gains last month were overwhelmingly service industry jobs and the bulk of professional office job cuts are just now starting up.

Or just bullshit in general....https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/06/08/theres-a-glaring-misleading-error-in-the-may-jobs-report-us-may-be-at-20-unemployment/#30f48fba60d3

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On Friday, I reported on the data released from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating that 2.5 million jobs were added in May. This was followed by an enthusiastic take on how the United States may be turning the corner. Despite all of the negatives, it seemed the U.S. was seeing rays of hope. The stock market, which has shot up since the initial shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, bolted up after the report, gaining over 700 points and referred to other positive developments. 

Unfortunately, after delving into the footnotes of the numbers, it now looks like the jobs report has been inaccurate for the last two months. BLS has admitted that government household survey takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million people as employed, although they were unemployed.  

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1% in May. The corrected April figure would have been more than 19.5%—rather than 14.7%.

The official response was that the government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.

The Labor Department acknowledged that for the last two months, it was aware of this issue, but didn’t widely report it or make the necessary adjustments. The big question is whether or not this was purposely done or a typical government blunder. 

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12628

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Posted

In the Green by 9 AM.

 

Got the printing press fired up early today after someone forgot to turn it on yesterday.

 

Gotta counter act all that bad news about 'jobs' and 'virus' BS.

 

Stocks only go up !!!!!!!!!!

 

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, baby, BRRRRRRRRRRRR

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9973

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-trading/u-s-banking-regulators-ease-rules-around-firm-investments-internal-trading-idUSKBN23W2AJ

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The softer swap rule frees banks from having to set aside funds to protect against derivatives trades made between affiliates of the same firm. The final rule sets a limit on how much inter-affiliate exposure a bank could have without setting aside margin funds of 15% of the firm’s capital. 

The latest moves serve as significant victories for the financial industry, which for years had complained about rules they said were onerous, confusing and overly cautious. 

There is more than one way to print money. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

Posted
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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

 

I mean, this is getting out of control.

This house of cards better hold up bc it I don’t know how much powder they have left..... 

We’ve been over this a million times.  The US fed has unlimited ammo up until they don’t.  That moment is probably so dark you better be a prepper to deal with it

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12628

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17 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

^That.

And nothing to base it on besides myself, this thread, and anecdotal conversations, but I think TINA mindset makes for a pretty solid foundation to the securities market house of cards. What’s the alternative?
 


That’s not a market.

What you’re  describing is a religion.

When you have $ at stake, blind faith seems dicey.

But then again.... TINA?

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12628

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3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

New rules on stress tests buoyed financial shares and that has kept the market afloat in choppy waters after the bad Covid news. Stress test results will be announced after the close today. 

So without the moved goal posts , would the banks have all flunked the stress test?

Serious question b/c I’m trying to keep up but these fed/treasury shenanigans are starting to feel all Enron accountingy. 

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

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TINA. There is No Alternative, Margaret Thatcher on Free Market Capitalism.

See it cropping up more and more on Boglehead and reddit with regard to investing in securities.

Real estate? Maybe.
Commercial REITS? Nope, not in 2020.
Cash CDs Bonds? Sure, until you miss 1 or 30 brrrrrrrr 3% rally days.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

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12 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I hope Biden makes Warren treasury secretary. I dont give a fuck if the markets tank, you can make money in a down market as well. But we gotta reign this shit in. 

Laughable, the second any of the empty suits look into the abyss you’re goddamn right the Brrrrrrrr goes on.

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