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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11880

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, SuperSport said:

What?? Sorry, can't hear you.

spacer.png

 

I'm really starting to think that there is actually no news that can stop this bull run.

 

We've come to the conclusion that

1.) The fed will print enough money to keep markets from dipping.... at all

2.) Any tension between China and the US is over. Nothing is going to happen between now and November that can worsen out relationship.

3.) A vaccine is going to save us and be here earlier than expected.

4.) Any rise in cases or deaths will be met with a shrug. There will be no more lockdowns. At all. 

 

And yet, I also feel that this is an incredibly dangerous place to be in.... and I am never more scared to have money in the market than I am now.

 

I hate not knowing which way is up.

Edited by Dnaguy
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bernorange

bernorange 8357

Posted
Posted
Quote

U.S. stocks surged near the start of Monday trade to kick off the first full week in July, with investors pegging at least part of the bullishness emanating from Wall Street to a powerful rally in China.
...
U.S. markets appeared to draw hope from a rally in China equities, despite a spike in cases of COVID-19 over the Fourth of July weekend.
...
In Asian hours Monday, Chinese shares jumped, with the flagship Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +5.71% finishing up 5.7%, to the highest level since 2018 and the CSI 300 Index 000300, +5.66% enjoyed a similar return, after a front-page editorial in state-owned paper, China Securities Journal, said fostering a “healthy bull market” is important, according to a translation.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-jump-more-than-350-points-to-start-the-week-led-by-surge-in-china-markets-2020-07-06

Quote

The dramatic moves in Chinese stocks over the past week are inviting comparisons with a bubble that burst spectacularly five years ago.

In many ways, the pace of gains matches the market’s melt-up that started in the final weeks of 2014. ... Shares of brokerages surged as daily turnover exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan ($213 billion) for the first time since 2015, indicating increasing participation from retail investors. ...

Low interest rates and the first losses ever for some popular wealth-management products are driving China’s savers to stocks. The advance is also being aided by an enthusiastic chorus from the nation’s influential state media. A front-page editorial in the China Securities Journal on Monday said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever. Chinese social media exploded with searches for the term “open a stock account,” with bullish sentiment also boosting the yuan.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-06/china-state-media-stoke-world-beating-rally-in-nation-s-shares?sref=V47xycDY

Sounds legit.  I wonder what reasoning they professed for asserting that a healthy bull market (in stocks) is important to the economy.  What causality did they assert?

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted
It’s interesting, I went furniture shopping this weekend and there’s virtually no inventory, on anything. Stores were fairly packed with people begging to spend money, many unable to get what they wanted.

https://www.furnituretoday.com/mattress-bedding-news/mattress-sales-improving-by-the-week-analyst-says-in-bullish-bedding-report/

I’m a PRPL bull
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11880

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

It’s interesting, I went furniture shopping this weekend and there’s virtually no inventory, on anything. Stores were fairly packed with people begging to spend money, many unable to get what they wanted.

My parents bought all brand new appliances and a living room suite of furniture over the last 2 weeks

With both them are employed and with the stimulus check they were flush!

That extra cash was burning a hole in their pocket.

Have pretty much ignored social distancing and only informed me that a co-worker had tested positive when we were driving to their house (dad knew about the guy for 3-4 days as he was awaiting his results). Tuned the car around real quick. Since that incident, we've essentially told them that we are 'waiting and seeing' during this wave. I have no intention on them coming to my daughter's bday party.... which makes my stomach churn. It's not fair to my kids their grandparents are being idiots.

Pops didn't quarantine OR even get tested when the guy in the office came back positive. Just nuts.

They are so boomer, they're almost a caricature. 

I love them, but Christ almighty they make such questionable decisions.

 

So I'd watch your bunghole Cas' Enc.

Those folks shopping for furniture were likely a bunch of DNAgramps and DNAgrands. They give no fucks.

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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13082

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

My parents bought all brand new appliances and a living room suite of furniture over the last 2 weeks

With both them are employed and with the stimulus check they were flush!

That extra cash was burning a hole in their pocket.

Have pretty much ignored social distancing and only informed me that a co-worker had tested positive when we were driving to their house (dad knew about the guy for 3-4 days as he was awaiting his results). Tuned the car around real quick. Since that incident, we've essentially told them that we are 'waiting and seeing' during this wave. I have no intention on them coming to my daughter's bday party.... which makes my stomach churn. It's not fair to my kids their grandparents are being idiots.

Pops didn't quarantine OR even get tested when the guy in the office came back positive. Just nuts.

They are so boomer, they're almost a caricature. 

I love them, but Christ almighty they make such questionable decisions.

 

So I'd watch your bunghole Cas' Enc.

Those folks shopping for furniture were likely a bunch of DNAgramps and DNAgrands. They give no fucks.

Trust me, the number of times I’ve been out in public over the past few months would make @GreenspointTexas look tough. These are needs due to an upcoming relocation. I avoided people out in public like... the plague.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11880

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Trust me, the number of times I’ve been out in public over the past few months would make @GreenspointTexas look tough. These are needs due to an upcoming relocation. I avoided people out in public like... the plague.

 

Order your shit from Wayfair or their sister sites like Joss & Main.

1.) They actually have nice stuff (DNAgal bought some nice couches and light fixtures from there)

2.) It's cheaper than you think / what I've seen in stores

3.) It holds up.... at least for the amount of years it stays in style

4.) They deliver to your house so you never have to go to a store.... but you'll need someone to help you move the shit in your house. 

 

If you can swing it, try and set up a commercial account first. You get better prices that way. 

I did this with Build.com as well. 

It's the only way to remodel your house. Saved a butt load. This was also before they started charging everyone taxes too. That ship has sailed though.

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Blotto

Blotto 23477

Posted
Posted

I don't know why this shit continues to surprise me, but it does. Lemonade IPO. Basically they are an online insurance company. Insurance is a fairly well understood market, and margins are what they are. 

Lemonade current market cap ~5 billion. 2019 revenue was $67 million, Net income was -$108 million.

Aflac current market cap ~26 billion. 2019 revenue was $22.2 billion, Net income was $3 billion. 

Look, I can understand a little premium based on this being a small company with presumably a lot of growth ahead of it. But holy shit, $5B.... Even in these generally overvalued times, the average insurance company PE is about 20. So based on a market cap of $5 billion, that would translate into a profits of approx $250 million. Based on these financials how likely is that anytime soon:

image.png.68f6301d18ac9c0ac9e10996c2afb9f8.png

Their net loss (not shown above, but approximately the same as operating income) seems to increase about 1:1 with increases in revenue. Checks market....up another 30% today. F'n bananas.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23445

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Blotto said:

I don't know why this shit continues to surprise me, but it does. Lemonade IPO. Basically they are an online insurance company. Insurance is a fairly well understood market, and margins are what they are. 

Lemonade current market cap ~5 billion. 2019 revenue was $67 million, Net income was -$108 million.

Aflac current market cap ~26 billion. 2019 revenue was $22.2 billion, Net income was $3 billion. 

Look, I can understand a little premium based on this being a small company with presumably a lot of growth ahead of it. But holy shit, $5B.... Even in these generally overvalued times, the average insurance company PE is about 20. So based on a market cap of $5 billion, that would translate into a profits of approx $250 million. Based on these financials how likely is that anytime soon:

image.png.68f6301d18ac9c0ac9e10996c2afb9f8.png

Their net loss (not shown above, but approximately the same as operating income) seems to increase about 1:1 with increases in revenue. Checks market....up another 30% today. F'n bananas.

 

LOL financial analysis.  This is fantasy land, get math the fuck out of here. 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23477

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

LOL financial analysis.  This is fantasy land, get math the fuck out of here. 

 

Oh I get it man....market is full of examples of overvalued companies. But shit like the example above makes this feel about like it did in the fall of 2000. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27579

Posted
Posted

So where I'm at is I have a bunch of seemingly overvalued shares of stocks that don't make sense at the price they're at. And I also have a bunch of student debt. I'm thinking I sell off half of what I've got (get my money out and leave house money in), dump it into principal payments, and let the rest ride? Because BRRRRRT is still gonna BRRRRRT, but bird in the hand and all that

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11880

Posted
Posted
Just now, Blotto said:

Oh I get it man....market is full of examples of overvalued companies. But shit like the example above makes this feel about like it did in the fall of 2000. 

 

Fuck you bro.

Don't be a beta cuck nerd with that 'math' bullshit.

 

Grab life by the pussy, put your money in the market, and make some fucking money.

merlin_154667781_fcaddd85-1910-4c1e-a541

 

You feel that? That's your balls descending.

 

1LRrkdTqM_WT0WedzhNb3uZ-N3ZxbwPi3XWZEsnz

 

spacer.png

 

KERRANG_MURICA_2400x1350.jpg?auto=compre

 

 

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SuperSport

SuperSport 1333

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

So where I'm at is I have a bunch of seemingly overvalued shares of stocks that don't make sense at the price they're at. And I also have a bunch of student debt. I'm thinking I sell off half of what I've got (get my money out and leave house money in), dump it into principal payments, and let the rest ride? Because BRRRRRT is still gonna BRRRRRT, but bird in the hand and all that

Or let it all ride and collect BRRRRRTx2. #profit

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2271

Posted
Posted

This has to be what irrational exuberance looks like. I mean the market is completely decoupled from reality. I am riding this in my 401k account which is now up 28 percent for the year because of the change I made earlier in the crisis but my mm account is still cash.  Everything about this feels wrong. My mm account is so much harder to pull the trigger on because it is all my after tax money that I physically transfer from my bank to vanguard. My 401k feels like play money because I never "see" it so it's easier to make a big change. I guess what I'm saying is I'm still a pussy. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19169

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Did I walk into wallstreetbets without noticing?

 

 This market is insane.  I’m watching the train wreck right now.  It has a very 1929 feel to it.

It definitely has a 2000 feel to it.  The other day I was reading the "analyst reports" on some of these super high fliers and how the ridiculous price targets have been derived.  One of them was forecasting EV sales out to the year 2040 and how that justified a $10 bajillion target for NVDA.  I was thinking to myself, "Yep, been there done that." 

This will not end well but it's going to rip faces off bears before it dies.

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WBT

WBT 20551

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Bought a large block at $700.  Took a deep breath when I did it because I thought it was overvalued.  It was overvalued then and it always will be.

Same but at $600 something.  /humblebrag

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5533

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

LOL financial analysis.  This is fantasy land, get math the fuck out of here. 

Funniest story of the day - JPMorgan raised their price target on Tesla today from $275 to all the way up to $295; nevermind that TSLA is trading around $1,400 (after hours)
who in the fuck would listen to THAT anal-ist???

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-stock-soars-toward-record-as-wall-streets-biggest-bear-raises-price-target-2020-07-06?mod=home-page

Edited by Wally Fairway
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Superhero

Superhero 8821

Posted
Posted
On 7/1/2020 at 8:47 AM, elfenix said:

so how much is robinhood and degenerate gamblers with no sports?

However many of us on this thread x 1,000, maybe more.

With that said... I don't believe in TINA. Call me a downer, but this market is artificially propped up by all the money being pumped in by the Feds. There is no intrinsic value to a lot of these stocks (Hertz? Royal Norwegian?) other than what retail investors are pumping them up to be.

I sold some stocks late last year, and will probably sell some AMZN closer to election day. A 1,500% run is nice, but I think one of the chairs is already being pulled, and I don't want to wait for the music to stop.

 

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52-80

52-80 19136

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Legalized gambling. No basis in reality. Funny and amusing to watch while dreading the size of the crash to come.

the grabbing hands, grab all they can.  everything counts in large amounts

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Reagan1k

Reagan1k 3021

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It definitely has a 2000 feel to it.  The other day I was reading the "analyst reports" on some of these super high fliers and how the ridiculous price targets have been derived.  One of them was forecasting EV sales out to the year 2040 and how that justified a $10 bajillion target for NVDA.  I was thinking to myself, "Yep, been there done that." 

This will not end well but it's going to rip faces off bears before it dies.

*****Taps fingers on desk and reminisces about Lucent  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Great economic indicator that Japan has chosen to pay Mexican workers three times as much as before so as to avoid doing more manufacturing business with the U.S.  

#longgame (I hope, 'cause otherwise this is the first of its kind of MANY that is going to further fuck up the auto industry here in the U.S.)  

If you're interested, a wonderful organization that works between Mexico & the U.S. (AEM) is hosting a very informative webinar on this later today:  https://aemusa.org/aem-events/

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14581

Posted
Posted

WMT getting a big bump with their Prime rip off.  Mixed feelings here.  Prime is so ubiquitous and tied into the streaming service that I don't see people dropping that so you're asking them to carry both services.  Maybe some will.  You'd be surprised how many people carry memberships to both Sam's and Costco, for example.  I doubt it, though.  However, the WMT version offers same day delivery on groceries so there's that.  

 

Walmart plans to launch a new subscription service later this month called Walmart+ that will cost $98 a year. It will include perks like same-day delivery of groceries and general merchandise, discounts on fuel at Walmart gas stations, and early access to product deals, multiple sources told Recode.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Who turned off the printing press early today?

 

JPOW must have had to duck out early for an appointment or something.

The Fed wants a fiscal response. Monetary policy only goes so far in supporting the structural framework of this bubble. And the bubble is needed . . .

Without it, kerplunk.

image.png.c191699560f7ecec21c17cdcd2ab4dc2.png

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