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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,882

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Housing payments.  Includes renters.  Of which I'm guessing a lot of that 1/3 accounts for.  No way 1/3 of homeowners are late.

Quote

Renters are especially vulnerable. About 36% of renters, who are more likely to work in industries devastated by the coronavirus, missed their July housing bill, compared to 30% of homeowners.

 

Now, you're right about some of this just being delayed payment.... but even that is not the greatest of signs 

 

 

Quote

 

About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage.

 

That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May. Renters, low-income and younger households were most likely to miss their payments, Apartment List found. 

In April, May and June, the majority of missed housing payments were made by the end of month, Apartment List reports. Almost 90% of households had paid some or all of their rent or mortgage payment by the end of June. But with late fees tacked on, those households may be more likely to miss their next housing bill, perpetuating a vicious cycle.

“Delayed payments in one month are a strong predictor for missed payments in the next,” Apartment List says. While 83% of households who paid their May housing in full and on-time also did so in June, only 30% of households who were late in May did so in June.

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23,477

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Posted
24 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

BTW, this goddamn Wuhan fraud company GSX is fucking my shit up something fierce.

Holy shit...I bought some puts in mid-May for a $30 strike and had to bail quickly down about 20%.....had no idea that piece of shit was now pushing $80. Unreal

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horn4life

horn4life 3,758

Posted
Posted

I could have made a lot more money, and thought a lot less just going with the FED.  I still think at some point reality is gonna catch up, and the realization there is not going to be endless money forever will reel things back in.  I know... FED.... gonna buy up everything!

Still the market got a nice lift of the Jobs report that was done right before the cases started climbing and the South turned into Italy.  It will be interesting to see if investors will be able to ignore that lack of revenue that is going to start being reported.  Probably not because FED. But the good news for bears is the Trump administration is going to insist on some poison pill to force states to infect school children or lose federal funding.  As well as some other stupid shit like a payroll tax cut to further damage to social security and medicare.  So it will be interesting to see how long the GOP plays chicken, as it becomes clear that that there simply are not nearly as many jobs available as folks that want to work.

Now I could be wrong, and a bill is passed fairly quickly.  But I almost think that the only way something does get passed is if there is some stock market drama.  The closings of businesses are going to be a lot more about supply and demand than mandate, IMHO.  

I guess I should be happy making 11%+ betting against this market, but I should have just bought YETI at $15, would have been a lot more money with less anxiety. Yeti is up over 150% and I just don't see how sales are gonna support that valuation.  I know... valuation, smaluation, no need for evaluation....

 

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52-80

52-80 19,136

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Holy shit...I bought some puts in mid-May for a $30 strike and had to bail quickly down about 20%.....had no idea that piece of shit was now pushing $80. Unreal

i sold far-strike calls...  stock was breaching it, so i rolled the car further along the calendar...which just commits more capital to covering it, meanwhile the piece of shit kept going up

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Captainant

Captainant 27,588

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Posted

Just thinking forwards though guys... There's tens of millions of Americans getting an extra $600/mo in unemployment benefits that ends sometime in July. That's alot of fluid capital to dry up, and I can't imagine it's going to do good things for REITs and MBS's to look so good come August/September. Especially with it looking like we're going to have to continue to social distance at least to August.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,421

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Just thinking forwards though guys... There's tens of millions of Americans getting an extra $600/mo in unemployment benefits that ends sometime in July.

Lololololololololol

 

as if anything is going to end before a certain little political event that occurs in November 

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Captainant

Captainant 27,588

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13 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Lololololololololol

as if anything is going to end before a certain little political event that occurs in November 

Well, the senate is currently in recess for a state work period and won't be back until July 17 and the Pandemic Federal Unemployment Compensation (PFUC) statutorily runs out on July 31, and many states issue the last payment on the 25th. It's not a surefire thing that they'll pass something before August to extend that date out, and even if we could reopen and presto-chango go back to normal, it would still be at least a quarter to recover with regard to employment.

And yet, the Nasdaq hit an all-time high today. Stonks.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,533

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Captainant said:

Just thinking forwards though guys... There's tens of millions of Americans getting an extra $600/mo in unemployment benefits that ends sometime in July. That's alot of fluid capital to dry up, and I can't imagine it's going to do good things for REITs and MBS's to look so good come August/September. Especially with it looking like we're going to have to continue to social distance at least to August.

Betting against JPow and his brrrrrrrr machine is like putting your chips on 0 & 00 on the roulette table. Good luck timing that right!

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B00M

B00M 6,408

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

New unemployment claims up another 1.3M to 49.9M unemployed over the last 16 weeks. Nearly 30% of the labor market, unemployed. 

 

BETTER THAN EXPECTED

priced in

Edited by B00M
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31,415

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Posted

I can't help but wonder a little bit if the virus is providing corps with a) an excuse for a reduced labor force in the future and b) demonstrating that office space can be reduced.  And no one is explicitly talking about it, but these things lead to moar profits.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49,136

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I can't help but wonder a little bit if the virus is providing corps with a) an excuse for a reduced labor force in the future and b) demonstrating that office space can be reduced.  And no one is explicitly talking about it, but these things lead to moar profits.

Also --  Bad June numbers, now an apartment rental crisis heating up in Manhattan.... just discussed on CNBC.

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,882

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I can't help but wonder a little bit if the virus is providing corps with a) an excuse for a reduced labor force in the future and b) demonstrating that office space can be reduced.  And no one is explicitly talking about it, but these things lead to moar profits.

 

Also my thoughts:

1.) The fed bought all corporate debt and everyone then issued new bonds and took out new loans at stupid low interest.

2.) All that free PPP loan money with no real strings (because who's really going to check, right?) 

3.) Easy excuse to stiff vendors and landlords.. and hoard cash on hand. What are they going to do? If we all do it, they're fooked. Hold steady and we win. 

4.) And yes, being able to just do more with less headcount and overhead. What do we care. We pay them so low that unemployment is better for them anyway. After July 31st? Hell if I know. They aren't my employees anymore, remember?

 

If only the virus would cooperate, those 4 things alone would send stock prices, CEO bonuses, and fees / $ for the street into the next galaxy... 

That pesky virus is just holding us back to historic highs. 

And historic highs are for beta cucks.

I want Galactic highs. Supernova level DOW and NASDAQ #'s. If the DOW's at 27,000, why can't the NASDAQ be the same. And all this talk about DOW to 30,000 by end of year. Think 130,000!

Are you as hard as I am right now?

 

 

 

Edited by Dnaguy
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Blotto

Blotto 23,477

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I can't help but wonder a little bit if the virus is providing corps with a) an excuse for a reduced labor force in the future and b) demonstrating that office space can be reduced.  And no one is explicitly talking about it, but these things lead to moar profits.

No need to wonder, its happening. After having an office for the 7 years that we have been in our current location, I was informed  this week that my office was being transitioned into a shared meeting room that can be reserved, and once we open up the office again, I could  either come in every day and find a place to work in an open seating plan or I could work from home. So it looks like I have just transitioned to full time work from home. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,882

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Posted
3 hours ago, Blotto said:

No need to wonder, its happening. After having an office for the 7 years that we have been in our current location, I was informed  this week that my office was being transitioned into a shared meeting room that can be reserved, and once we open up the office again, I could  either come in every day and find a place to work in an open seating plan or I could work from home. So it looks like I have just transitioned to full time work from home. 

Ah yes.

The school cafeteria / Southwest Airlines office model.

You no likey?

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21,811

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10 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I can't help but wonder a little bit if the virus is providing corps with a) an excuse for a reduced labor force in the future and b) demonstrating that office space can be reduced.  And no one is explicitly talking about it, but these things lead to moar profits.

If I may speak to this, as this is my bidness.  We anticipate a close to zero sum result.  While there may be less demand for space on a per person basis, there is an expectation that, after years of cramming more and more people into less and less space- it used to be 2.5-3 people per 1,000 sf leased and is now closer to 4.5-6/1,000- the pendulum will swing back a bit to a lower density.  And after years of transitioning from a mostly private office environment with some support cubes to an open plan/collaborative layout, it will likely start moving back to more private offices which by it's nature will decrease density.  Of course it will affect some industries more than others.  We shall see.  Fortunately pre-pandemic vacancy rates were historically low, and there were limited new projects to hit the market, or at least ones that weren't snatched up by a single user (Netflix, Google, Amazon, etc), so there isn't a bunch of added supply to soften things a lot.  At least out here.

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Lurch

Lurch 5,922

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I will say that we (small software Co) were just about to double our footprint in March, and are now thinking going mostly remote long term. The rent isn’t a huge portion of our expenses but it isn’t negligible either. If we could reinvest that in people, it may be the way to go. We were well aware of full remote peers but thought it just wasn’t right for us. This has made us discover that maybe it is.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,337

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

Madness

I’m pissed put some more money in my TD acct last week and was trying to fill a 15k option order on the July 17 $25 strike.   Cash still wasn’t available for options Friday.  Seriously just cost me a boatload. 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17,429

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m pissed put some more money in my TD acct last week and was trying to fill a 15k option order on the July 17 $25 strike.   Cash still wasn’t available for options Friday.  Seriously just cost me a boatload. 

Story of my life.  I am however in big on gnus 😂

 

it’s bouncing three or four dollars in seconds.  Has a nio feel to it

Edited by closetohumping
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