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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12626

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Posted (edited)

I know that we’ve discussed this multiple times here, but the market is completely divorced from reality.

i don’t want to lose money, but Im now kind of actively rooting for another crash here.

Why?

People need to be taught a lesson. This market fundamentally punishes actual investing and incentivizes recklessness. There is no fear. If we all come out of this without any real ‘punishment’ then I’m afraid of the future.

The Chinese and US are escalating tensions. Crickets. Increasing cases. Crickets. 

and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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HouTex

HouTex 1939

Posted
Posted
I know that we’ve discussed this multiple times here, but the market is completely divorced from reality.
i don’t want to lose money, but Im now kind of actively rooting for another crash here.
Why?
People need to be taught a lesson. This market fundamentally punishes actual investing and incentivizes recklessness. There is no fear. If we all come out of this without any real ‘punishment’ then I’m afraid of the future.
The Chinese and US are escalating tensions. Crickets. Increasing cases. Crickets. 
and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

A lot of people were taught a lesson when the Dow hit bottom in the 1Q this year and thought they had to sell and didn’t get back in or got back in recently and missed some upside. Many here are trying to time every spike and pull back. Good luck with that over the long haul. Unless you are within five years or so from retirement just invest in several good mutual funds and leave them alone except for the occasional rebalancing.
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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

....  and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

This is the issue with the Fed guaranteeing backstops.  Moral hazard.  The worse shit gets in the real world, the happier investors are because the Fed will be forced to brrt and bailout.

Quote

...
“COVID-19 is now inversely related to the markets. The worse that COVID-19 gets, the better the markets do because the Fed will bring in stimulus. That is what has been driving markets,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance.
...

More:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-federalreserve-mar/federal-reserves-3-trillion-virus-rescue-inflates-market-bubbles-idUSKCN24E13G

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 22142

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49 minutes ago, HouTex said:


A lot of people were taught a lesson when the Dow hit bottom in the 1Q this year and thought they had to sell and didn’t get back in or got back in recently and missed some upside. Many here are trying to time every spike and pull back. Good luck with that over the long haul. Unless you are within five years or so from retirement just invest in several good mutual funds and leave them alone except for the occasional rebalancing.

That's me.  I took massive hits in Q1/2, but just sitting tight has led me back to a better place than when this started.  Don't ask me how the economy works.

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3073

Posted
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30 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That's me.  I took massive hits in Q1/2, but just sitting tight has led me back to a better place than when this started.  Don't ask me how the economy works.

Same. My vanguard funds have ‘over delivered’ during this pandemic. My foreign stock fund has gone nuts this year. My play account is up. I’ve been ready for the next hit but damn. TSLA.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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7 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

What happened around 12:50pm this afternoon?  I don't see anything on the web that might have triggered the drop.  

Around that time, I got a WSJ alert reporting that the US is about to reject various Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19453

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https://abc7.com/governor-newsom-update-today-gavin-press-conference-california-covid-19-coronavirus/6315327/

Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered several sectors to once again shut down Monday amid an increasingly concerning coronavirus surge.

RELATED: Here's everything allowed to open in CA (and what we're still waiting on)

 


Bars, both indoor and outdoor, will be forced to close down statewide. Restaurants are being told to cease indoor operations. Outdoor dining and takeout are still allowed.

All counties also have to close all indoor operations at wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms.

In counties on the state's watch list -- including Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- even more businesses are being required to close their doors. That includes gyms, hair salons, barbershops, other personal care services, indoor malls, offices in non-critical sectors, and places of worship.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 22142

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15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

https://abc7.com/governor-newsom-update-today-gavin-press-conference-california-covid-19-coronavirus/6315327/

Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered several sectors to once again shut down Monday amid an increasingly concerning coronavirus surge.

RELATED: Here's everything allowed to open in CA (and what we're still waiting on)

 


Bars, both indoor and outdoor, will be forced to close down statewide. Restaurants are being told to cease indoor operations. Outdoor dining and takeout are still allowed.

All counties also have to close all indoor operations at wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms.

In counties on the state's watch list -- including Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- even more businesses are being required to close their doors. That includes gyms, hair salons, barbershops, other personal care services, indoor malls, offices in non-critical sectors, and places of worship.

Hair salons and barbershops.  Oof.  Son and I were gonna do this ove rthe weekend, but time slipped away.  Gonna have to go hippie again.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19453

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Not to get all paycheck stubby, but damn if I didn't make, then lose, a lot of money today.  I try not to look so frequently, but I can't help myself.

I have a stock that has a sell order at $106.  Prior to the drop it got to $105.94.

It closed at $101 and change.  That’s an expensive six fucking cents.

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Captainant

Captainant 28531

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/business/jpmorgan-earnings-jamie-dimon/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citigroup-results/citigroup-quarterly-profit-tumbles-73-as-loan-loss-provisions-surge-idUSKCN24F1G4?il=0

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/wells-fargo-wfc-earnings-q2-2020.html

Big banks across the board starting to take it in the shorts. Wonder when the pain will start to trickle down

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Do your DD first, folks, but just a reminder that Citigroup was 2nd to last, with WFC the only bank behind them, as far as outstanding vulnerable credit. Citi is the bank behind a lot of retail CCs. As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12626

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24 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/business/jpmorgan-earnings-jamie-dimon/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citigroup-results/citigroup-quarterly-profit-tumbles-73-as-loan-loss-provisions-surge-idUSKCN24F1G4?il=0

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/wells-fargo-wfc-earnings-q2-2020.html

Big banks across the board starting to take it in the shorts. Wonder when the pain will start to trickle down

But it wasn't as bad as it could have been so now the market is up!

 

We're all rich!

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Do your DD first, folks, but just a reminder that Citigroup was 2nd to last, with WFC the only bank behind them, as far as outstanding vulnerable credit. Citi is the bank behind a lot of retail CCs. As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

Yep, which in turn will turn up the heat on the market as a whole.   
 

I am going to start buying VXX calls every week.  10% out of the money to start.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

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14 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
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52 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

 As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

Yep, from that first link Capt posted:

Quote

 

JPMorgan executives said this recession is abnormal because of the high level of stimulus support from the government, which has helped raise Americans' personal income.
"May and June are really the easy months in terms of what this recovery will look like," Piepszak said on a call with reporters. The real damage, she said, would become evident in the coming months.

 

 

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

 

52 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, which in turn will turn up the heat on the market as a whole.   
 

I am going to start buying VXX calls every week.  10% out of the money to start.  

I'm no expert, but I've played around with call backspreads on VXX before.  You only lose if VXX trades flat, which is extremely rare.

https://www.theoptionsguide.com/call-backspread.aspx

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

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30 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

good point
Immediately, I go and check out VXX and the options strings. Because #stonklife and what could go wrong. 

The "correct" way to play VXX options is a straddle, right? So you don't care if it goes up or down, just that it goes???

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

good point
Immediately, I go and check out VXX and the options strings. Because #stonklife and what could go wrong. 

The "correct" way to play VXX options is a straddle, right? So you don't care if it goes up or down, just that it goes???

I believe a straddle would be more expensive, but you would have access to gains on the down side.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 22142

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

But it wasn't as bad as it could have been so now the market is up!

 

We're all rich!

At what point (if ever) do I count my blessings and move everything to cash equivalents in anticipation of the next great collapse?  Honestly, it HAS to be coming, right?

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19453

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

Or fill out the form for futures trading and buy /VX itself and cut out all the bullshit associated with VXX.

I’m not saying betting on increased volatility is a bad idea, but the instrument of choice matters.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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tokamak

tokamak 6687

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4 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

At what point (if ever) do I count my blessings and move everything to cash equivalents in anticipation of the next great collapse?  Honestly, it HAS to be coming, right?

I moved about 25% of our total retirement to cash at S&P 2950. Don't be like me, I'm stupid.

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HouTex

HouTex 1939

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Posted

My advisor talked me out of going to 1/2 cash when the Dow was around 21,000 and techs were just coming back. I was so happy they came up from the lows i thought it was time to lower my risk. Glad i stayed fully invested. I’m not saying we won’t see a correction, but if you sell you can’t possibly know when to get back in. Or you could sell and miss out on some near term upside. And some funds require you to wait 30 days to get back in. Other funds are closed to new money.

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Blotto

Blotto 24015

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Posted
3 minutes ago, HouTex said:

My advisor talked me out of going to 1/2 cash when the Dow was around 21,000 and techs were just coming back. I was so happy they came up from the lows i thought it was time to lower my risk. Glad i stayed fully invested. I’m not saying we won’t see a correction, but if you sell you can’t possibly know when to get back in. Or you could sell and miss out on some near term upside. And some funds require you to wait 30 days to get back in. Other funds are closed to new money.

Yeah, you can hedge with puts on the indexes and not have to sell any stock. Thats what I did in Feb and started doing again this week. May also prune some stocks I'm just done with. 

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