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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Not that I agree with him, but even though you may be 1% you aren’t the part of The Pentavirate who meets bi-annually at The Meadows .000001% he is talking about.

but, if you are wtf are you doing here?

Our guy manages the very top at Goldman and JPM.  I am definitely a nobody in that club but I've got access to their 'genius' ideas.  There's an actual Akselrad at JPM (Think Axe from Billions) and I can assure you they don't fucking know.  And they did not pull money before today.  I mean look at Warren Buffett for fucks sake... nobody knows.  They may be making educated guesses but they don't know. 

Edit: they're all chucklefucks, we're all chucklefucks...chucklefuck is as chucklefuck does. 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15078

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Of course I’m joking, kind of. I do have a real source in a very interesting position that I can’t disclose because I’d out him/her and get him/her in trouble.

That person has confirmed that key top people on Wall Street are uncomfortably close to both administration officials and key people at the Fed, with ripe opportunities for conflicts of interest.

I’m a “the market is efficient guy and no one knows where the market is headed”. However, I’m also starting to believe the lily white characterization of that might be a little naive when we see a president doing the things he’s doing. The grift and corruption is likely deeper than any of us want to admit.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Of course I’m joking, kind of. I do have a real source in a very interesting position that I can’t disclose because I’d out him/her and get him/her in trouble.

That person has confirmed that key top people on Wall Street are uncomfortably close to both administration officials and key people at the Fed, with ripe opportunities for conflicts of interest.

I’m a “the market is efficient guy and no one knows where the market is headed”. However, I’m also starting to believe the lily white characterization of that might be a little naive when we see a president doing the things he’s doing. The grift and corruption is likely deeper than any of us want to admit.

This I buy.  A group of us had some info from pre BRRRRRT that said we should get ready for some unprecedented help...even had some dollar signs that were impressively close...mixed in some rhetoric that was almost word for word what a certain fed master said.  I'll just say it was enough to impress some people that aren't generally impressed  But here's the thing - even with that info they didn't know how the market would react.  The market has been so schizophrenic that you can have good inside info and really have no idea wtf to do with that info. 

Edit:  your line on the President or any cronies in govt is definitely spot on.  But those people win by trading in and out of the Kodak's of the world.  Not by seeing what's going on with the market as a whole.  Maybe they used to...but not since March. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89775

Posted
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3 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

Are you kidding?  In an election year?  They can't wait to parade in front of the cameras with another round of fuckery.

I would normally agree with you, but they pissed away all of June, July, and August, so we are now into September, and a shit-ton of people and companies are hurting.  

And another major blowup in covid cases from Labor Day could push us back into more businesses being shut down or restricted.  Not a good look for an election year.

If the market drops any more over the next week, I bet they will magically find some common ground and get something out.

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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Cannot fix this with monetary policy alone. The ultra wealthy got their bailout, but they don't spread it around the economy. Fiscal response is necessary (and has been for a while now).

Americans are good for two things in the world economy - cannon fodder in wars and buying shit like it is going out of style. That's the social contract built into the world's economic system. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89775

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56 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I heard a stimulus teased Breaking News on CNBC driving this afternoon after the market closed and I started laughing thinking all it took was one bad day to get it done.  Turned out it was some shit about agreement to separate regular gov’t funding from stimulus.

CNBC and other sites have been pumping out stimulus clickbait since the first stimulus, so not surprised.

I will revise my schedule - instead of next week, if the market drops a bit more tomorrow, I think they'll figure out a stimulus over the weekend.

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bluto

bluto 4935

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Not that this is a shock to anybody, but supply chains/inventory are super fucked. Couple anecdotes, One friend runs an independent mattress shop and he can’t come close to filling his insane back orders b/c the wood isn’t available for box springs, and coil springs aren’t exactly plentiful.

 

Another buddy with a big appliance brand said they are backordered for about year out, inventory is essentially wiped out and not much coming through the pipe. Their big competitors have had to just stop taking orders due to these issues.

 

In his words it looks damn good for present day books/rev, but they are staring down hard times that fiscal policy/stimulus will have a hard time fixing. The product just won’t be there.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15078

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Not that this is a shock to anybody, but supply chains/inventory are super fucked. Couple anecdotes, One friend runs an independent mattress shop and he can’t come close to filling his insane back orders b/c the wood isn’t available for box springs, and coil springs aren’t exactly plentiful.
 
Another buddy with a big appliance brand said they are backordered for about year out, inventory is essentially wiped out and not much coming through the pipe. Their big competitors have had to just stop taking orders due to these issues.
 
In his words it looks damn good for present day books/rev, but they are staring down hard times that fiscal policy/stimulus will have a hard time fixing. The product just won’t be there.

I’ve been finding this for multiple types of products. Everything is out of stock. It shows how dependent we are on China for any goods.
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tokamak

tokamak 6433

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Not that this is a shock to anybody, but supply chains/inventory are super fucked. Couple anecdotes, One friend runs an independent mattress shop and he can’t come close to filling his insane back orders b/c the wood isn’t available for box springs, and coil springs aren’t exactly plentiful.
 
Another buddy with a big appliance brand said they are backordered for about year out, inventory is essentially wiped out and not much coming through the pipe. Their big competitors have had to just stop taking orders due to these issues.
 
In his words it looks damn good for present day books/rev, but they are staring down hard times that fiscal policy/stimulus will have a hard time fixing. The product just won’t be there.

Very interesting. IKEA doesn’t have a god damn thing in stock right now. Saw some bare shelves in Target a couple days ago, too.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89775

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21 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Very interesting. IKEA doesn’t have a god damn thing in stock right now. Saw some bare shelves in Target a couple days ago, too.

There were some items/furniture we wanted (redoing our place for the fall and continued working/school at home, etc.).

Could not get them in at Austin, and would see them pop up in San Antonio and Katy IKEA stores, and then sell out within the week, only to get new shipments in, and then sell out again.

We finally changed up our plan, and picked things that were in stock in Austin, but even those were selling out.

 The person we talked to at IKEA when getting our stuff, said that not all stores stock the same stuff as the others, as it's based on how much space is allocated for stuff.  So apparently the original piece of furniture that kept coming into and out of stock elsewhere, was never going to be stocked in Austin.

So either IKEA is selling through a shit-ton of stuff, or their stores are getting very little in and/or being very selective.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11681

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In regards to supply chain challenges above, it is a daily challenge we are dealing with on seemingly everything.  If it’s not a component its the spec’d hardware or valve or electrical that is not available.

 I tend to believe its a combination of JIT inventory standards, loss of production by Covid factory closures(even if currently open) and demand shifts predicated by SIP orders(remodeling demand, home cooking vs restaurant).  

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

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Not that this is a shock to anybody, but supply chains/inventory are super fucked. Couple anecdotes, One friend runs an independent mattress shop and he can’t come close to filling his insane back orders b/c the wood isn’t available for box springs, and coil springs aren’t exactly plentiful.



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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

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Those Wall Street Bets guys are the best:

About to head home form work and I really don't want to go home. I don't want my wife and kids to ask me if something's wrong because my wife always knows just by looking at my face. I don't want to have to tell her.I started this as a hobby of sorts. Just to make some extra cash and maybe have a little fun. I've done okay these past 2 months and bragged the other day about how I was becoming somewhat of a "stock broker", like the ones on Wall Street. There was a glint of awe and admiration in her eyes, a shine I hadn't seen in years.

Today I lost everything and I don't want to go home. Part of me wonders if they're better off without me.

So I'm here asking for advice as someone who only a couple months ago stumbled on to your world. How do you deal with the loss and disappointment? How do you face your loved ones when they ask how things are going? In my case, my loss directly affects them because its $28 I could have used for groceries or something to benefit them. How do you guys dealing with losing absolutely everything you put in? How do you rebuild? How?

 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17456

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15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Those Wall Street Bets guys are the best:

About to head home form work and I really don't want to go home. I don't want my wife and kids to ask me if something's wrong because my wife always knows just by looking at my face. I don't want to have to tell her.I started this as a hobby of sorts. Just to make some extra cash and maybe have a little fun. I've done okay these past 2 months and bragged the other day about how I was becoming somewhat of a "stock broker", like the ones on Wall Street. There was a glint of awe and admiration in her eyes, a shine I hadn't seen in years.

Today I lost everything and I don't want to go home. Part of me wonders if they're better off without me.

So I'm here asking for advice as someone who only a couple months ago stumbled on to your world. How do you deal with the loss and disappointment? How do you face your loved ones when they ask how things are going? In my case, my loss directly affects them because its $28 I could have used for groceries or something to benefit them. How do you guys dealing with losing absolutely everything you put in? How do you rebuild? How?

 

What the hell did he put it in to lose everything?  

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

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12 hours ago, bluto said:

Not that this is a shock to anybody, but supply chains/inventory are super fucked. Couple anecdotes, One friend runs an independent mattress shop and he can’t come close to filling his insane back orders b/c the wood isn’t available for box springs, and coil springs aren’t exactly plentiful.

 

Another buddy with a big appliance brand said they are backordered for about year out, inventory is essentially wiped out and not much coming through the pipe. Their big competitors have had to just stop taking orders due to these issues.

 

In his words it looks damn good for present day books/rev, but they are staring down hard times that fiscal policy/stimulus will have a hard time fixing. The product just won’t be there.

We're seeing similar where we're at.  Refineries pushed back a lot of their turn arounds.  They were running 50-70% capacity, not pushing hard, so no need.  Don't want to make the big expenditures on the turn arounds.  Where we're at in the food chain, we've been very busy on the backlog of material, but eventually its going to hit us (and others in a similar spot on the chain).  Right now, end of October is looking rough.  Like we may be shutting down processing units.  I don't know if it false hope, but March-ish of next year big contractor groups are getting hard to come by.  If we can get there, there will be more work than anyone can handle.  Would be a good time to have good group of pipefitters, welders, and electricians.  Just have to keep the wheels from coming off before then.  

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