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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89775

Posted
Posted
On 9/10/2020 at 2:26 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Congress fucked us again.

One of our Senators said yesterday there probably won't be another stimulus/bailout bill until after the election.  I think there's movement in trying to keep unemployment going from the federal level.

This is not going to be a fun few months.  The past 6 months has really shown who, and what businesses, were on a shaky financial footing.

Imagine if this shit drags out into the holiday season, and people are not buying nearly as much.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5571

Posted
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

One of our Senators said yesterday there probably won't be another stimulus/bailout bill until after the election.  I think there's movement in trying to keep unemployment going from the federal level.

This is not going to be a fun few months.  The past 6 months has really shown who, and what businesses, were on a shaky financial footing.

Imagine if this shit drags out into the holiday season, and people are not buying nearly as much.

Trying to be apolitical with a political party

Non of them give two shits about you or me, their first priority is getting reelected; and secondly they want the other party to lose.

Political support of employment, stimulus, etc is a way to buy your vote. The Fed, at least thinks they are supposed to support the economy (although, so say ineffectively). And regardless of what happens they will blame the other party

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89775

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Political support of employment, stimulus, etc is a way to buy your vote. The Fed, at least thinks they are supposed to support the economy (although, so say ineffectively).

That's what is really surprising to me - I'd think they'd be tripping over each other's dicks trying to get a bill passed.

We are doing fine, but damn, I have a lot of friends/former co-workers/acquaintances that are all on pretty shaky ground right now.   Dave Ramsey should be raking it in, based on how many people I know who were living way above their means, or who just weren't saving at all, and all of the sudden are having to radically change their shopping habits.  And I didn't realize it about a lot of people until the past 6 months or so.

Hell, I'd think retailers would be pressuring Congress to do something, otherwise it's going to be a really lean holiday season.   And that's not getting into all of the housing stuff.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5571

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That's what is really surprising to me - I'd think they'd be tripping over each other's dicks trying to get a bill passed.

We are doing fine, but damn, I have a lot of friends/former co-workers/acquaintances that are all on pretty shaky ground right now.   Dave Ramsey should be raking it in, based on how many people I know who were living way above their means, or who just weren't saving at all, and all of the sudden are having to radically change their shopping habits.  And I didn't realize it about a lot of people until the past 6 months or so.

Hell, I'd think retailers would be pressuring Congress to do something, otherwise it's going to be a really lean holiday season.   And that's not getting into all of the housing stuff.

Yeah - but I think that neither side wants the other to be able to take any credit, so everyone is fucked

Also anyone have a Business Insider subscription - I've seen a couple of links to this article, which I'd be interested to read, because it will prove I should be back fully into puts

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-expert-warns-great-depression-setup-90-plunge-2020-9

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Blotto

Blotto 23564

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah - but I think that neither side wants the other to be able to take any credit, so everyone is fucked

Also anyone have a Business Insider subscription - I've seen a couple of links to this article, which I'd be interested to read, because it will prove I should be back fully into puts

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-expert-warns-great-depression-setup-90-plunge-2020-9

Pro tip... go to outline.com and just paste the businessinsider link, which bypasses their paywall. Doesnt work for most sites, but it does for businessinsider

Quote

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.

Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research and editor of the "Economy and Markets" newsletter, says stocks are nearing a day recockning.

His forecast rests upon an amalgamation of variables including immense leverage and credit expansion, years of unfettered accomodative monetary policy, diminishing central bank efficacy, aging demographics, and lofty stock and real estate markets.

"When this happens, you don't get a 30 or a 50% stock correction. You get 80 to 90," he said.

Click here to sign up for our weekly newsletter Investing Insider.

Click here for more premium stories.

"I think we're going to see the worst crash in our lifetime."

That's what Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research and editor of the "Economy and Markets" newsletter, said on the "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe" podcast.

"The last major global bubble we had was 1925 to '29," he said. "They come once every other generation, once in a lifetime, like a 90 year cycle, particularly. And we're right on that."

At the helm of Dent's apocalyptic forecast lies a confluence of nefarious variables, including immense leverage and credit expansion, years of accommodative monetary policy (similar to the early 1920s), diminishing central bank efficacy, aging demographics, and lofty stock and real estate markets.

Some worrisome elements have been building slowly for years, while others have only become more troublesome recently. In his view, the combination is reminiscent of a lethal elixir — one that could send markets spiraling. The coronavirus — which Dent refers to as a "perfect trigger" —was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.

"So here we are with this perfect trigger and I'm saying, 'Hey, this is going to cause a deeper crisis in 2008 to nine because we didn't deal with it,'" he said. "I'm just saying, there's a point where you have a big bubble, and a boom, and you have to de-leverage debt. And that's what we did in the early thirties."

In Dent's mind, the fallout from the Financial Crisis wasn't dealt with appropriately. The Federal Reserve simply "printed money and blew us out of that recession before we could restructure debt and do all the things that make you healthy again."

That's giving Dent cause for concern. During the early 1920's, similarly responsive accommodative monetary policy set the stage for the Great Depression.

Dent sees common threads.

Now that the Fed has cut interest rates to zero, announced unlimited quantitative easing, started purchasing corporate bonds , and announced an initiative to buy state and local bonds, Dent thinks the central bank's future effectiveness will be reduced to nil at a time when markets need it most.

"We had this first crash and of course they stimulated their way out of that," he said. "They'd done everything, but each stimulus has to be stronger. And I think they lose control."

Dent's assessment of the current landscape is similar to that of John Hussman — the outspoken investor and former professor who's been predicting a stock-market collapse.

In a recent client note, Hussman exclaimed: "The Fed has encouraged a maladaptive confidence that risk does not exist. This overconfidence of investors is itself a threat to their survival," adding, "It should not be a surprise that I expect the S&P 500 to lose about two-thirds of its value over the completion of the current market cycle," in a separate note.

Dent takes his prognostication a step further.

He says that the market will soon come to the realization that "no amount" of stimulus can "put Humpty Dumpty back together again." And against that backdrop, he's projecting a deeper downturn to occur early next year.

"You know what happens? And I've got a 90 year cycle, which is right on 1929 with this one. When this happens, you don't get a 30 or a 50% stock correction. You get 80 to 90," he said. "I don't care what age you are, but particularly if you're over 30 or 40, you will never see a high this high again in real estate or stocks, you will lose almost all your financial assets and they'll come back much more slowly."

 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted

I saw something earlier this year with the first round of stimulus checks, that a lot of people were paying down credit card debt.  Not sure where it was, but I was kind of surprised - I would have figured a lot of people would have either been stashing it away in an emergency fund, or loading up on shit like video games and TVs.

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Blotto

Blotto 23564

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https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/13/oracle-wins-bid-to-buy-tiktok/

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Enterprise provider Oracle  is said to have won the bidding war for the U.S. operations of TikTok, a chase in which Microsoft was booted out earlier today.

A TikTok  spokesperson said the company “[doesn’t] comment on rumors or speculation.” Oracle did not immediately respond to TechCrunch for comment.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Oracle will be announced as TikTok’s “trusted tech partner” in the United States. Additionally, the Journal cites that a person familiar with the matter says the deal is “likely not to be structured as an outright sale.”

Lulz. Platform will be dead in 12 months. What the hell is Oracle gonna do with Tik Tok, other than fuck it up?

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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Did anyone happen to catch the awesome exchange this morning on CNBC between Andrew and Chamath Palihapitiya?  It was concerning Open Door IPO as a SPAC.  Before this exchange I had no clue what a Special Purpose Acquisition Company meant.  Chamath fascinates me.  I think he is from the same school of thought as Elon Musk.  I've have a tiny position in his Space venture.  The ability of Open Door to expand into other businesses is promising.  

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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Posted
1 minute ago, bernorange said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/dethroned-dollar-is-making-waves-across-markets-in-five-charts

/Interesting times/Chinese curse

Yep - we were good for incurring debt and consuming. If we are tapped out and can't consume, why would the dollar remain the king. We ate the seed corn and now we are relying on spillage. That does not bode well for the American economy and inhabitants of the United States. 

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Captainant

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11 minutes ago, bernorange said:

If Main Street starts to see serious pain (and they might), I expect a 2008ish "gun to the head" meeting between JPow & Associates and Congress - the kind of discussion they had prior to TARP.

Main street HAS been seeing serious pain - unemployment and evictions are at historic highs. None of the record stock market highs seem to have trickled down yet for some reason...

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UT_OB1

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Evictions are at historic highs?  With evictions having been put on hold in many places.  Please provide support for your statement. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-18/u-s-evictions-are-down-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic

With a few exceptions, every week of the pandemic summer through August 7 has seen fewer eviction filings than on average for the 17 cities where researchers at Princeton are publishing data. Eviction filings are down in Boston, where Massachusetts lawmakers effected some of the nation’s strongest state-level eviction protections, as well as in cities in Texas, where there are next to no eviction protections. In July 2020, filings were low relative to a 2012–2016 baseline in all these cities except Milwaukee, where filings shot back up late in June and July. Over the first week of August, filings were down everywhere except for Jacksonville.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Was unable to edit.  wanted to add:

Edit - while I don’t think there is evidence that we are at “historic” highs, and in fact with the restrictions that have been put on landlords (some as law, some as judges preferences), I do think we’ve got the potential to get kicked over the ledge.  I’ve said it in other threads, but there will have to be a shared suffering by all.  Tenant loses job because their work place cut back/ahutdown due to Covid and can’t pay rent.  Landlord can’t pay mortgage now (don’t kid yourself, majority of landlords aren’t the rich 1%).   Lender has a bunch of landlords as well as regular home owners missing payments, and everyone wants to make the banks evil, but banks are just machines, and yeah, there are a handful that own the machines that are so rich none of this matters, but if the machine stops, lots of “normal” people running the machine now become the tenants that can’t make rent. Each group in the triangle is going to have to give a little to get through it, but if we keep things throttle back too long, people are going to run out of give.   

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washparkhorn

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Posted

The Fed and evictions - the troubles

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/community-development-briefs/db-20200717-measuring-evictions-during-the-covid-19-crisis.aspx

“The severe consequences of eviction will be only amplified in a pandemic. Collinson and Reed (2020) connect evictions to increased risk of homelessness, mental health hospitalizations, and emergency room visits, situations which could put evicted tenants at a greater risk of contracting, spreading, and suffering complications from COVID-19 (CDC 2020). Studies have also shown that eviction can lead to job loss (Desmond and Gershenson 2020), an especially troubling outcome in a labor market already devastated by COVID-19. These factors are worth considering for policymakers concerned with avoiding future increases in evictions as the economic crisis continues.“

 

 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed and evictions - the troubles

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/community-development-briefs/db-20200717-measuring-evictions-during-the-covid-19-crisis.aspx

“The severe consequences of eviction will be only amplified in a pandemic. Collinson and Reed (2020) connect evictions to increased risk of homelessness, mental health hospitalizations, and emergency room visits, situations which could put evicted tenants at a greater risk of contracting, spreading, and suffering complications from COVID-19 (CDC 2020). Studies have also shown that eviction can lead to job loss (Desmond and Gershenson 2020), an especially troubling outcome in a labor market already devastated by COVID-19. These factors are worth considering for policymakers concerned with avoiding future increases in evictions as the economic crisis continues.“

 

 

From your article, evictions were way down starting in March and have just returned to pre-Covid levels in SOME areas. They haven’t increased so much as to make up for all those that weren’t evicted in March-June, and we aren’t at historic levels of eviction country wide(or anywhere according for this and what I’ve read, but I’ll leave open the possibility it is somewhere)

 

Eviction filings plummeted at the beginning of the economic crisis in the United States, both in places that implemented broad eviction bans and those that did not. As of July 7,2roughly one-third of rental units in our study are no longer covered by temporary policies, and eviction filings have now returned to their prepandemic levels in those places no longer covered; filings remain subdued in places that have continued eviction bans.

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

...

What is the delinquency rate - up or down - may be a better measure of that sector, Are banks lending to the landlord sector?

Quote

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 86.2 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by September 13 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 2.4-percentage point, or 279,457-household decrease from the share who paid rent through September 13, 2019 and compares to 86.9 percent that had paid by August 13, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

“While it remains clear that many apartment residents continue to prioritize their housing obligations and that apartment owners and operators remain committed to meeting them halfway with creative and nuanced approaches, the reality is that the second week of September figures shows ongoing deterioration of rent payment figures - representing hundreds of thousands of households who are increasingly at risk,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.
...

https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/nmhc-rent-payment-tracker/

Not the full picture (doesn't encompass house rentals for example), but maybe it's representative of the landscape.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19211

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, bernorange said:

If Main Street starts to see serious pain (and they might), I expect a 2008ish "gun to the head" meeting between JPow & Associates and Congress - the kind of discussion they had prior to TARP.

Unlike Bernake, Powell is a hack and doesn't have the guts or respect to pull it off.

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