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Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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hornbri

hornbri 1511

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Very good post Eastwood. I think it is not just retail though, I think the big boys also saw the vulnerability and pounced as well. The WSB crowd doesn't have the volume we have been seeing. 

Agreed. We have not seen the final chapter here. Reddit got it right but I promise so did some of the big boys and they made the most money they could. 
 

if WSB could see it. So could they. 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Very good post Eastwood. I think it is not just retail though, I think the big boys also saw the vulnerability and pounced as well. The WSB crowd doesn't have the volume we have been seeing. 

 

13 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Agreed. We have not seen the final chapter here. Reddit got it right but I promise so did some of the big boys and they made the most money they could. 
 

if WSB could see it. So could they. 

Oh, I'm sure. I'm never the smartest person in the room, so I'm sure much smarter people saw it coming much earlier. But keep in mind that there are some whales that post anonymously on WSB. Martin Shkreli, for example, was discovered to have been posting there and had an 8 figure eTrade account. Millionaires like luls, too.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:


So... what’s your next pick??

I just started hunting again yesterday in anticipation of parking a portion of my GME gains into whatever I find that interests me. However, GME was a once in a lifetime trade. I'll never see returns like this again in my lifetime. If I had capital on hand for this trade like I did 4 years ago...

tenor.gif

18 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

lol this. Bravo, Eastwood, whether it be sustainable for you or not.

Thanks! It's not sustainable. lol. This market is insane and I have no experience under normal market conditions. Like my buddy who got a blackjack on literally his first blackjack hand ever. It was all downhill for him from there.

4 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

@Eastwood  I owe you a bottle of your potion.  I always lost my ass on your picks, but it wasn't because they were incorrect, I just didn't time them correctly.  Well done.  Appreciate the info you routinely put out on the board here.

I really appreciate that. But I'm going to be MIA in here for a while because I haven't really researched anything lately. I'll lurk and throw in a random gif, but I don't like throwing info in here unless I think it is truly interesting.

BTW, I don't think chasing short squeezes is the play here. As we found out Friday through today, timing entry and exit is too much of a crap shoot. Also, I don't think a lot of the stocks they are throwing out there fit the GME mold for a squeeze. Short float is one thing, but I think the stat that people overlook is institutional ownership. Shares sitting with institutions are less liquid, acting as a multiplier on short interest. Only one I could find of the popular "meme stocks" that comes close to GME is BBBY. Short float is "only" 66.81%, but institutional ownership is 117.28%. I haven't researched beyond that, though.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26442

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Eastwood said:

The banks and hedge funds that created that SHOULD be on the hook. It SHOULD be illegal.

Great post Eastwood & I'd like to focus on this. They created a glitch in the matrix and exploited it for years. A few people got smart & the Weaponized Autism that is WallStreetBets turned the tables on them.

I'm guessing that the SEC will step in and review these rules in the future now that The Unwashed Masses have figured it out.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26442

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, XYZ said:

WTF is WallStreetBets?

This post sums up everything you need to know about WallStreetBets / GME:

 

just remember, we can remain retarded longer than they can remain solvent.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l5c0nr/the_gme_thread_part_1_for_january_26_2021/gkuc1jh/?context=3

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11879

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Eastwood said:

As I stated earlier, I sold half of my position in GME today, but I still firmly believe in the trade I executed. I am now concerned about two things, one being specific to GME. I think the invisible hand of the free market is about to get absolutely doomfisted by either the government or big banks. I think a lot of institutions out there are shook. When GME hit $150 and other short squeezes were popping, a huge market sell-off occurred. I think funds were liquidating to cover their losses because margin calls were going out. In GME alone today, short sellers lost $1.6 billion according to Business Insider. Melvin Capital, supposedly the biggest short seller of GME out there, is down a whopping 30% for 2021, so far. They manage billions. We learned in 2008 that these banks and funds actually interweave into a structural support for the entire financial system. If a multi-billion dollar part of that support structure fails, it increases the strain on the others, and then another fails, and then we have a cascade failure. I think GME and the big shorts come together and negotiate a share purchase of newly issued shares under the condition that they are immediately transferred to the rightful owners to get the short float below 100%. This is actually extremely bullish for GME. They erase their remaining debt, buy out of all of their bad leases, and increase their cash long enough for the turn around. That's why I only sold half of my position. I'm long GME. In Ryan Cohen I trust. But I also think the government steps in and does something to try to fix the rest of the market. As history has shown us, this doesn't mean punishing the banks who created the situation in the first place. No, they're going to increase the regulations on the retail investors. That could also have grave, unintended consequences when retail cashes out all at once.

I would rep multiple times if I could. 

 

The whole post is awesome, but the bolded above has been squarely in the front of my brain today.

 

Prepare thy anus.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, WBT said:

Holy shit.  Why wouldn't GME issue new shares to take advantage of this situation?

 

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Share dilution is bad for actual shareholders.

This. There is an argument that could be made that GME has a fiduciary duty to not dilute their shareholders. However, I don't think that argument would pass muster under these circumstances. The company can write its own ticket with these prices. And they will. But not before they let the funds that almost bankrupted them bleed to death in the street. Then they'll load up on enough cash to give themselves plenty of room to turn the ship.

Edited by Eastwood
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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26442

Posted
Posted

Eastwood is right. At some point, GME would be smart to issue new shares, however, when they do, the price will likely crash as the "squeeze" will be over. They are walking a tightrope right now between making a quick buck, SEC regulations, and fiduciary duty to shareholders. I'm guessing their lawyers and accountants are working 24-7 to figure this one out.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

Posted
Posted

From the bloomberg finance guy:

Should the SEC care about all of this? On the one hand, I do not see a whole lot of deception in this GameStop situation. The SEC’s core concerns, about people lying about stocks and tricking the innocent, don’t seem especially implicated here; everyone is having reasonably informed and consensual fun. 

On the other hand it is all pretty dumb? Like if you are a securities regulator, you can think of your job narrowly as preventing people from lying about stocks, or more broadly as encouraging capital formation and fostering confidence in markets and moving markets toward efficiency and perfection. And, you know, this is the opposite of that. A popular conclusion from the GameStop story is “well I guess the stock market is nonsense now,” and I’m not sure that conclusion is wrong. Seems like the sort of thing the SEC wouldn’t like. But what can they do about it? 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

Posted
Posted (edited)

Goddamn megaprops to you @Eastwood, I well remember your pimping GME back in late summer/early fall. I was looking into getting my feet wet in options with a small amount of money but was primarily focused on trading call options from my long stocks or new picks from Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. I remember reading your posts and I remember the links you cited to reddit on GME. I was following GME back then and liked it because it was cheap but I dipped my toe into options with ZNGA, PINS, and FVRR and then the market shit the bed.  I wish I had pulled the trigger on GME, because I was very close to buying calls for January. 

That's my biggest regret since selling my NFLX shares back in 2005 after a 40% return. 

Congrats man!

Edited by Gourmand
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5445

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Basically every stock that has 40% short interest ran up 5-15% in the day and/or after hours. 
 

The shorts are scared and bailing. 

Normal shorting is a necessary counter to companies that are doing shady accounting or otherwise questionable stuff to their "story", but the predatory funds that make a living off sinking any kind of distressed stocks I have no sympathy for.  At least have the courage of your convictions and own the loss.  


This is a healthy event to remind the WS assholes that there can be surprises.

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cam4mav

cam4mav 772

Posted
Posted

Hi I'm new here. I lack the weaponized autism to understand what comes next with this whole GME thing. 

So basically the masses said fuck you to the short selling hedge funds that over extended themselves on GME and now everybody is YOLO-ing around the bases while short positions bankrupt said hedge funds.... does that sum it up at the moment?

Is there known timing on this thing? One of my equally ignorant buddies said something about "Friday" being the big day. He couldn't articulate why though 🤣

What's next basically. Does the mob move on to BB / AMC / whatever? Do they just keep rocket ship emoji GME and never sell as this company clearly not worth $200 a share keeps rising...... Does everybody try and take their gain tomorrow and gtfo and things get back to "normal"

 

I'm absolutely fascinated by this and only found out about it like an hour ago.

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Chapo

Chapo 104

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, cam4mav said:

What's next basically. Does the mob move on to BB / AMC / whatever? Do they just keep rocket ship emoji GME and never sell as this company clearly not worth $200 a share keeps rising...... 

My understanding is that the stockholders get to take turns with the hedge fundies' trophy wives 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, DonkeyCigars said:

From the bloomberg finance guy:

Should the SEC care about all of this? On the one hand, I do not see a whole lot of deception in this GameStop situation. The SEC’s core concerns, about people lying about stocks and tricking the innocent, don’t seem especially implicated here; everyone is having reasonably informed and consensual fun. 

On the other hand it is all pretty dumb? Like if you are a securities regulator, you can think of your job narrowly as preventing people from lying about stocks, or more broadly as encouraging capital formation and fostering confidence in markets and moving markets toward efficiency and perfection. And, you know, this is the opposite of that. A popular conclusion from the GameStop story is “well I guess the stock market is nonsense now,” and I’m not sure that conclusion is wrong. Seems like the sort of thing the SEC wouldn’t like. But what can they do about it? 

But the market is correcting an inefficiency.  You have a stock with +100% of the float shorted and + 100% of the float institutionally owned, so a short squeeze was going to happen regardless.  The fact that these hedge fund regards that are as or more stubborn as Bill Ackman are doubling, tripling, sextupling down on the same position and being forced to cover is the very definition of a market equalizing an inefficiency.   

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26874

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

But the market is correcting an inefficiency.  You have a stock with +100% of the float shorted and + 100% of the float institutionally owned, so a short squeeze was going to happen regardless.  The fact that these hedge fund regards that are as or more stubborn as Bill Ackman are doubling, tripling, sextupling down on the same position and being forced to cover is the very definition of a market equalizing an inefficiency.   

Well said 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26874

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, cam4mav said:

Hi I'm new here. I lack the weaponized autism to understand what comes next with this whole GME thing. 

So basically the masses said fuck you to the short selling hedge funds that over extended themselves on GME and now everybody is YOLO-ing around the bases while short positions bankrupt said hedge funds.... does that sum it up at the moment?

Is there known timing on this thing? One of my equally ignorant buddies said something about "Friday" being the big day. He couldn't articulate why though 🤣

What's next basically. Does the mob move on to BB / AMC / whatever? Do they just keep rocket ship emoji GME and never sell as this company clearly not worth $200 a share keeps rising...... Does everybody try and take their gain tomorrow and gtfo and things get back to "normal"

 

I'm absolutely fascinated by this and only found out about it like an hour ago.

When you say the company isn’t worth $200 per share, I would agree. But what’s driving this isn’t people trying to buy the company, but shares of the company, and a share of the company is worth whatever the market says it’s worth at any given moment. The only people who say what that number is are the buyers and sellers. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5677

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, cam4mav said:

 

Is there known timing on this thing? One of my equally ignorant buddies said something about "Friday" being the big day. He couldn't articulate why though 🤣

I'm absolutely fascinated by this and only found out about it like an hour ago.

It is Friday because that is the next options excursion date. Any call option that expires this Friday that is in the money will require seller of the option to deliver shares; and there aren't enough shares for sale to cover that requirement. And that is the gamma squeeze.

There is also a short squeeze, where people who have sorted the stock have to put up collateral, and those shares can be called. If the short seller has sold short naked (meaning  they don't own the shares) then they have to buy them on the market. Again driving the price up, as there are more shares sorted than there are available.

Happened last Friday, it's likely to happen (almost guaranteed at this point) this Friday, and then next week. Rinse, wash, repeat 

The contagion rush is that the hedge fund who are short, or sold the calls, will have to sell other securities to raise funds to cover their losses. Which could cause a broad market decline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 24037

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, DonkeyCigars said:

From the bloomberg finance guy:

On the other hand it is all pretty dumb? Like if you are a securities regulator, you can think of your job narrowly as preventing people from lying about stocks, or more broadly as encouraging capital formation and fostering confidence in markets and moving markets toward efficiency and perfection. And, you know, this is the opposite of that. A popular conclusion from the GameStop story is “well I guess the stock market is nonsense now,” and I’m not sure that conclusion is wrong. Seems like the sort of thing the SEC wouldn’t like. But what can they do about it? 

If it takes this GME fiasco to make you realize that the market may be nonsensically detached from reality, you're either not paying attention or mentally handicapped. After all the bullshit that was exposed at NKLA, it still has a market cap of $10B with no revenue and quite likely no product. DASH is trading at $60B (30x revenue) and can't make money in a f'n pandemic. Its 2000 all over again. GME is simply a more entertaining example of market lunacy because its the little guy fucking over the hedge funds for once.

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted

CNBC posted a story saying Melvin phoned them and said they closed out their positions. (implied close on Tuesday)

Literally the exact same time, Citron Research posted youtube video saying they closed their position (@90)

 

Stock dipped from 300s to 180, then shot back again

 

WSB instantly debunked their lies, and CNBC retracted the story.

 

This is spectacular.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
CNBC posted a story saying Melvin phoned them and said they closed out their positions. (implied close on Tuesday)
Literally the exact same time, Citron Research posted youtube video saying they closed their position (@90)
 
Stock dipped from 300s to 180, then shot back again
 
WSB instantly debunked their lies, and CNBC retracted the story.
 
This is spectacular.
I'm still seeing the story on their website.
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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eastwood said:
15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:
CNBC posted a story saying Melvin phoned them and said they closed out their positions. (implied close on Tuesday)
Literally the exact same time, Citron Research posted youtube video saying they closed their position (@90)
 
Stock dipped from 300s to 180, then shot back again
 
WSB instantly debunked their lies, and CNBC retracted the story.
 
This is spectacular.

I'm still seeing the story on their website.

the hyperlink from their twitter account went straight to the home/landing page, instead of a video or article

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

CNBC posted a story saying Melvin phoned them and said they closed out their positions. (implied close on Tuesday)

Literally the exact same time, Citron Research posted youtube video saying they closed their position (@90)

 

Stock dipped from 300s to 180, then shot back again

 

WSB instantly debunked their lies, and CNBC retracted the story.

 

This is spectacular.

It most certainly is.  Especially with consideration to Citron.  They have been an attack dog for years.   A thorn in the side to retail and institutions for their massive short raids.  To see a firm like theirs up against the ropes for making too big of a bet is pure awesomeness.  
 

but this is going to implode spectacularly.   When the trade unwinds, there is going to be an absolutely unfathomable vega implosion and theta crush.   Many small investors will have huge paper gains they’ll never realize because there will be no one left to buy the trade.   
 

even institutions on the right side of the trade, who are trying to crush Melvin/Citron right now are going to take it in the shorts as they’ve bought the price up trying to see the gambit fully through.   They’ll have to take m2m losses when the stock drops back into the teens/twenties.    
 

it’s going to happen so fast that people won’t be able to react to it.  

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Blotto

Blotto 24037

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Many small investors will have huge paper gains they’ll never realize because there will be no one left to buy the trade.   

I was thinking about this myself. The vast majority of the retail investors that have piled into buying calls want no part of those options getting exercised Friday. If GME is hanging around $300, that would require 30K per contract. What percent of the reddit contigent can afford to exercise their options? So a mad rush begins to close out their options, but will there be buyers on a Friday afternoon? Could see some strange shit on Friday. I don't think I understand all the moving pieces on this deal enough to get involved but the entire thing is interesting as fuck.

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