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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5310

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Penny stocks are always in a bear market because they are pieces of shit.

In aggregate you’re right but discretely you’re wrong.  It is much harder to pick winners in pennies, and even harder to time exit points, but there are stocks priced in pennies that have huge bull runs.  Overall you probably are better off not getting into the pennies but I’ve made a ton of money in them.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19188

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

In aggregate you’re right but discretely you’re wrong.  It is much harder to pick winners in pennies, and even harder to time exit points, but there are stocks priced in pennies that have huge bull runs.  Overall you probably are better off not getting into the pennies but I’ve made a ton of money in them.

The post I was responding to mentioned the bear market in penny stocks, nothing to do with the 3 or 4 in thousands that don’t totally shit the bed.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21142

Posted
Posted
On 5/19/2021 at 8:25 AM, Johnny Chimpo said:

I think it’s time to pivot towards international developed stocks, and begin thinking about accumulating emerging market stocks. 
 

I’m playing on value stocks as a theme given that they may succeed more in an inflationary environment and tend to pay dividends. I’m in the accumulation phase of my life but for now I’m gonna start leaning on VYMI and DVYE with my biweekly purchase programs. 
 

one thing to be aware of when buying emerging market index funds like IEMG is the weighting they hold towards Chinese tech. It’s something like 20% China tech. Lately their government has not been playing nice with their tech companies so I am happy to stay away from that. 

EUFN.  Euro banks will pop.  They’re later in cycle obviously.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21142

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 6/2/2020 at 1:53 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

I don't want to pay ordinary income taxes on the oil gains but a part of me wants to take some profit.  I'd never go 10% of my entire portfolio on 3 names (and in oil of all places) but here we are.  Has saved my ass as I left some cash on sidelines.  I'm feeling in the stonks mood and will let em ride at this point but I rarely get lucky like that and I'm sure it will come crashing back soon. 

Any of you get into the distressed debt funds?  A lot of major groups do them and they have been the rage the last couple months.  I did Monarch (4.5B AUM) and Varde (14.5B AUM) with some money I had pulled out at lows.  

So I checked these.  Monarch and Varde have tripled up.  Unreal.  More risk on.  LFG 

 

edit: monarch seems to be well ahead of Varde.  Looked at blend.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
Derp
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52-80

52-80 19147

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Posted
On 5/26/2021 at 10:37 PM, 52-80 said:

tomorrow loading up on IWM early/mid june 230 Calls.

IWM premarket was red, was hoping to grab them at a discount.  by market open they were already 30%+ or so higher than the close.  still grabbed these, along with 235Cs.

 

targeting IWM 235-240 in next 2 weeks

 

 

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

Biggest one day down move in the soybean market today. Corn locked limit too, as did hogs with fat cattle close. 

See, yesterday I was considering buying one of those ETFs that track different commodity prices. I was this close. And now this happens.

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Blotto

Blotto 23487

Posted
Posted
Quote

The Federal Reserve on Thursday said it will lift COVID-era dividend and share buyback restrictions on the largest banks, potentially setting up big bank shareholders for a windfall of capital distributions.

The regulator announced results from its annual stress test on Thursday, declaring that all 23 of the tested banks appeared to have “strong capital levels” and would be able to withstand a severe recession.

The Fed had been imposing additional restrictions on the amount that large banks could pay out to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. But it said in March that those restrictions would be lifted if banks met regulatory minimums in their stress tests.

By showing the Fed that they were capitalized above the regulator’s requirements, the largest banks — which include the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) — will no longer face restrictions on share buybacks and dividends after June 30.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said in a statement Thursday that the banking system looks “strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery.”

The largest banks may immediately boost their planned dividends and share buybacks as a result of the Fed results.

Sounds like everything is pretty swell. Guess there wont be any need for bailouts in the future. In the meantime, enjoy the boost to your stock price guys

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21829

Posted
Posted
On 6/17/2021 at 12:28 PM, Royalfan5 said:

Biggest one day down move in the soybean market today. Corn locked limit too, as did hogs with fat cattle close. 

Damn, I hope Navin Johnson' s daddy is OK.  He leveraged his ass deep in soybean and cocoa futures.

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Blotto

Blotto 23487

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Short squeeze (?)

Cool announcement. Passenger flights to space approved by FAA on Virgin.

The entire premise behind this company makes no sense to me. $250K-$500K per ticket for a flight that allegedly won't breach the Karman line? And they will have to compete with SpaceX and Blue Origin to win the business of the relatively small number of people who can realistically pay that kind of money? 

Their horizontal liftoff from a mothership approach is basically at its limits already compared to the competition, who has plans not only for suborbital flight, but trips to the moon and shit. Both SpaceX and Blue Origin also have significant revenue streams outside of the space tourism business, but SPCE does not. The Virgin Orbit business  is separate and looking at going public in another SPAC transaction this year. I think they will lose out to Bezos and Musk in relatively short order. 

 

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52-80

52-80 19147

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

The entire premise behind this company makes no sense to me. $250K-$500K per ticket for a flight that allegedly won't breach the Karman line? And they will have to compete with SpaceX and Blue Origin to win the business of the relatively small number of people who can realistically pay that kind of money? 

Their horizontal liftoff from a mothership approach is basically at its limits already compared to the competition, who has plans not only for suborbital flight, but trips to the moon and shit. Both SpaceX and Blue Origin also have significant revenue streams outside of the space tourism business, but SPCE does not. The Virgin Orbit business  is separate and looking at going public in another SPAC transaction this year. I think they will lose out to Bezos and Musk in relatively short order. 

 

SPCE is years and years from anything near commercial.  It's 13B of hilarious market cap representing basically a proof of concept.  But I've resigned to the fact that most stocks aren't meant to represent an entitlement to future cash flows - unless youre warren fucking buffett - they are just trading tokens to be gamified and flipped. 

I've tried to short "bad" businesses like Abercrombie, Bath Bed and Beyond, Snapchat, and so on and gotten burned.  If your goal is to make a positive return in the short term horizon, just go with the the technicals, trend, momo, etc. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23487

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

SPCE is years and years from anything near commercial.  It's 13B of hilarious market cap representing basically a proof of concept.  But I've resigned to the fact that most stocks aren't meant to represent an entitlement to future cash flows - unless youre warren fucking buffett - they are just trading tokens to be gamified and flipped. 

I've tried to short "bad" businesses like Abercrombie, Bath Bed and Beyond, Snapchat, and so on and gotten burned.  If your goal is to make a positive return in the short term horizon, just go with the the technicals, trend, momo, etc. 

I hear ya man. The valuation is a complete joke, and the company has a long history of never meeting promises/projected milestones. But I wont short it or even buy puts, because as your post states, the market in its current Fed-juiced state no longer really cares about the actual business prospects behind the symbol. 

However my comment wasn't really meant to hint at a near term price correction, it was really more of an observation regarding the longer term competitive landscape. They are having a hell of a time just getting this iteration of their technology validated, and thats all they have. meanwhile the comp is developing plans for travel to the moon, satellite launchs, etc.... SPCE would have to start over from scratch to match those ambitions.

Just last December they had a test flight aborted because a rocket motor didnt fire when a PC rebooted or some shit. How the fuck they get FAA clearance to take passengers  is beyond me.

Quote

In an earnings call Feb. 25 timed to the release of its fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results, company executives blamed an aborted test flight of SpaceShipTwo Dec. 12 on electromagnetic interference (EMI) that caused a flight computer to reboot just as the vehicle ignited its hybrid rocket engine. The vehicle glided to a safe landing at Spaceport America in New Mexico.

Mike Moses, president of Virgin Galactic, said a new flight control computer system is the likely source of increased levels of EMI. The company took steps to shield components from that interference to avoid a similar reboot and prepared to make a powered test flight as soon as Feb. 13. But in the final days of preparations, technicians noted continued EMI issues with vehicle systems.

“We saw some of our sensor readings — pressures and temperatures, those kinds of things — show some unusual fluctuations, which let us know EMI was still present and maybe in systems we didn’t initially anticipate,” he said. Now, the company is pursuing a modification to the flight control computer that is the source of the EMI.

They aint game ready for commercial operations, not even close. If Branson wants to blast off in that fucker this year, more power to him. But if he explodes in midair, it wont make him a hero, it will make him a dumbass. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21142

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

-22% since this post

Well those options already cashed.  But wish I bought some puts.  Can’t win em all.  Definitely debating more options leading up to Branson being blasted into space.  
 

edit: prob not.  Pretty common bet and those look pricey.  I’ll just sit and count my AHT losses 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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