Markets still falling like whoa

[ATexanAbroad 627]

16 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wally sold?

institutions are letting retail investors inflate the market with buy orders so they can peg everyone late in the afternoon for the third day in a row

[Wally Fairway 5664]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wally sold?

Not me - I'm on Duval St getting drunk

[ATexanAbroad 627]

11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Not me - I'm on Duval St getting drunk

Caiprinhinas too?!?

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

[Wally Fairway 5664]

2 hours ago, ATexanAbroad said:

Caiprinhinas too?!?

To be honesr, icant remmember

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

29 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

To be honesr, icant remmember

Don't drink and Surly, brother.

[Anastasis 23699]

13 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Don't drink and Surly, brother.

This is terrible advice. 

[ATexanAbroad 627]

drink and post your mistakes on surly, this is the way

[Redneck Mutha 8158]

17 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Don't drink and Surly, brother.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

On 1/21/2022 at 3:18 PM, Wally Fairway said:

The real bottom comes when I, again, start buying puts. Selling cake only slightly lessens the pain on the downside. And then only if I time it right, which is very unlikely. Because my past performance is a pretty good bet going forward.

 

On 1/21/2022 at 4:10 PM, Wally Fairway said:

 encabeza a mis amigos 

pulled the trigger on those puts, right at the close 

only things green today, puts I bought, calls I sold, and ABML

Looks like I went negative right at the bottom. Hope everyone made good money using this information.

[52-80 19379]

[Guest]

As a Google shareholder, I am plussed. 

As a former PayPal shareholder who sold, I am very plussed.

[52-80 19379]

Wrekt by Amazon earnings last quarter (5 digit overnight loss); salvaged by Google earnings this quarter.

Paypal is a weird one to me.  It was one of the inexplicable high flyers that rightfully got whacked -- was $300/sh 1 year ago!! -- so thats nice schadenfreude, but the solid financials are all still there: cash generating , low indebted, growing business...

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Fuck PayPal. They are some scammy motherfuckers. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

My portfolio is PYPL heavy. Worst day I’ve woken up to in a while. 

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

My portfolio is PYPL heavy. Worst day I’ve woken up to in a while. 

Sorry man. Sucks. I lost a decent chuck on the stock earlier, including some calls I bought when it first dropped when I expected a bounce.

 

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

What up Facebook or whatever the fuck you call yourselves now?  Down 25% in aftermarket. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What up Facebook or whatever the fuck you call yourselves now?  Down 25% in aftermarket. 

Bad miss on earnings.

 

Good. Fuck Zuck.

[Blotto 23974]

between nflx, pypl, fb all shitting the bed, I may need to pay attention to the earnings calendar and take a few cracks at some deeeeep OTM puts. Any stumble at all and these stocks are getting wrecked. FB now trading at ~250 and the 290p (approx 10% down) were trading for ~$2.70 at market close. 270p were ~$0.90. 

Fuck Zuck indeed. 

Weirdo

[52-80 19379]

Im thinking the brazilian river takes a nice fat dump tomorrow

[Blotto 23974]

Just noticed Snapchat and Pinterest are both down about 20% and they haven't even disappointed yet. 

Edited February 2, 2022 by Blotto

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Im thinking the brazilian river takes a nice fat dump tomorrow

I own a few shares. The action's been really weird for a year, and it's been trading like no one really likes it. Add in a big multiple and inflation pressures and I could see a big miss. In fact, last quarter was a nasty one but they got a free pass. 

[4thgenhorn 40]

Good thing I bought some FB before earnings thinking it was a cheap tech stock.  WTF. Need to stick to index funds. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

10 hours ago, 4thgenhorn said:

Good thing I bought some FB before earnings thinking it was a cheap tech stock.  WTF. Need to stick to index funds. 

You went Full Wally. Never go Full Wally.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Cheeseweasel

[Guest]

There's something sad about a market so impacted by the results of a company that produces nothing and is just a place to post conspiracy theories and unfunny memes.

Amazon down 7% in sympathy. I'm not selling here, but I can't argue with those that do. To me it's the one that's been given the most leeway of the big tech companies. I would not be surprised at all if it pulls a Facebook or PYPL after earnings today. The valuation is rich, labor/inflation costs are going to eat at margins, and frankly I think the commerce side is kinda crummy with all the bad Chinese products. Advertising and AWS are solid, but right now the market is selling first and asking questions later.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

but right now the market is selling first and asking questions later.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You went Full Wally. Never go Full Wally.

This is pretty solid advice

[Superhero 8990]

LOL. Down $41K on my Amazon positions. 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Superhero said:

LOL. Down $41K on my Amazon positions. 

If you mean overall from the recent peak, that means you bought about $170,000 worth at $3,700.

If you mean just today, that means you had about $575,000 worth.

Either way, that's how you not-so-humblebrag.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

If you mean overall from the recent peak, that means you bought about $170,000 worth at $3,700.

If you mean just today, that means you had about $575,000 worth.

Either way, that's how you not-so-humblebrag.

Maybe it is on recently purchased options; also know as the Wally method of harvesting losses

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Maybe it is on recently purchased options; also know as the Wally method of harvesting losses

In which case, $41K to blow on options is even more of a not-so-humblebrag.

[Superhero 8990]

12 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

If you mean overall from the recent peak, that means you bought about $170,000 worth at $3,700.

If you mean just today, that means you had about $575,000 worth.

Either way, that's how you not-so-humblebrag.

Bought at an average of $195 many years ago.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

https://tenor.com/u3ZS.gif

The Full Wally

 

[TonyTexas 10683]

31 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Bought at an average of $195 many years ago.

And you’re complaining?  Fuck off!

[Storm the Field 5360]

Lulz:

[pronghorn 44]

i refuse to log into my portfolio. i am very tech (FANG) heavy so sure I was crushed.

[bluto 4980]

Looks like Amazon delivered the goods 

[52-80 19379]

fucking yoyotopia in the FANG land jesus

 

and snapchat up 25% lol

[Guest]

Superhero, you going to make it buddy? And by that, I mean it's hard to know which color Lambo to get.

[Guest]

Man, Amazon is a weird company. The trucks, warehouses, boxes, employees that you see? That's stopped growing. Online sales were flat year over year. It's AWS and Advertising that are killing it. 

 

[Muny_Tex 315]

Question for those of yall who have been in the game long enough to remember .com bubble (and maybe ‘07-09 too)…has there ever been volatility like this based on basic shit like earnings reports?

Seeing $SNAP now soaring ~55% AH, after taking a 23% dump today as extension of the Facebook sell-off…what the fuck. Snap says they “reported a profit” (woo), so that’s worth immediate explosion of the entire market cap?

These seismic market moves are nearly all algorithm driven, correct? If so, how is that a good thing for anyone other than the scumbags behind the machines? Isn’t this eventually going to trigger the wrong type of domino effect and push everything to the edge of circuit breakers one day?

Kind of rhetorical, but can’t they just create a whole separate exchange for these slot machine stocks and have a boring “boomer” market (that requires hand-driven trading) for people who are at least trying to give a damn about fundamentals?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

I've been active in the markets since the middle 80's. Yes. Volatility has always been there, but since the valuation are so damn high, it just looks worse. 

I wised up quickly and put 95% of my money in Index Funds that took away many of the huge swings. 5% for STONKS to play with (although I rarely beat my index funds)

The main difference today is the amount and speed that information travels. Back in the day (get off my lawn) you read about your portfolio the next day in the newspaper. Now you watch it live. People are much more active at trading--I think it's bad for the markets because it seems more like gambling than investing. 

There are plenty of Index funds for "value" stocks that won't swing like the FANG stocks do, but you'll be missing out on some big upside. Balance, like most things, is the key.

Dollar cost average into the markets--ie keep putting in a little at a time, and the swings don't matter. If the market is down, you are buying the dip (asshole). If it's up, you look good. The key is TIME in the markets.

[Blotto 23974]

45 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Man, Amazon is a weird company. The trucks, warehouses, boxes, employees that you see? That's stopped growing. Online sales were flat year over year. It's AWS and Advertising that are killing it. 

 

thats why its probably should be the most valuable company in the world. they dominate ecommerce and cloud infrastructure. If you didnt read about it, they just announced that they are jacking up the price of Amazon prime 17%, from $119 to $139 (17%). I aint happy about it, but I'm still gonna pay it, because $1.50 a month aint enough to get me to drop that subscription. Thats pricing power. @200 million prime members world wide, that aint a bad bump in revenue that falls largely to the bottom line. 

[Guest]

What we're going through is something historic in the idea that it's something that should be investor's minds for decades to come. More volatile? I don't know. That time around 2008-09 was crazy. I mean, there were days when the market was up 10%+ in 2008.

But this weird "under the surface" repricing of so many stocks is wild. The run-up was wild and now the drawdown is wild too. I've never been a "market is a bubble" guy, but there were areas that were definitely frothy/bubbly. I'm actually a bit bullish because I think that's getting taken out and it's good for the market long term.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

thats why its probably should be the most valuable company in the world. they dominate ecommerce and cloud infrastructure. If you didnt read about it, they just announced that they are jacking up the price of Amazon prime 17%, from $119 to $139 (17%). I aint happy about it, but I'm still gonna pay it, because $1.50 a month aint enough to get me to drop that subscription. Thats pricing power. @200 million prime members world wide, that aint a bad bump in revenue that falls largely to the bottom line. 

I'm a shareholder and actually dropped my Prime in December. I find Prime Video to be second rate compared to Netflix. The two-day shipping seemed to get slowed down, and I have been buying less stuff from there simply because I feel like it's low quality. So many things is cheap Chinese garbage. In some cases that's a good thing, but overall I think it's a bad long-term strategy for the company.

Given how flat the stock has been for about 18 months now I've been thinking of selling but haven't quite pulled the trigger.

[52-80 19379]

31 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

Question for those of yall who have been in the game long enough to remember .com bubble (and maybe ‘07-09 too)…has there ever been volatility like this based on basic shit like earnings reports?

Seeing $SNAP now soaring ~55% AH, after taking a 23% dump today as extension of the Facebook sell-off…what the fuck. Snap says they “reported a profit” (woo), so that’s worth immediate explosion of the entire market cap?

These seismic market moves are nearly all algorithm driven, correct? If so, how is that a good thing for anyone other than the scumbags behind the machines? Isn’t this eventually going to trigger the wrong type of domino effect and push everything to the edge of circuit breakers one day?
 

 

Firstly, there is noooo fucking rationale to the 5 or so biggest public companies in the fucking world to go up and down 25% in a fucking day, in consecutive days, on grounds of earnings.

Secondly, the prices that these things peg at are established literally seconds to minutes after the information is public.  I'm literally hitting F5 on the SEC's EDGAR database and each company's Investor Relations page at :00 minute to see the new Q/K results, and the +/- 200-500 point swing of Google and Amazon instantly print.  There is no sensible human explanation for that.  Are we saying someone allowed their robot to trade 25% away from closing price in the illiquid afterhour sessions, based on the algo hoovering up preprogrammed metrics (net income, etc) using an API to EDGAR?  Or someone preprogrammed IF ELSE scenarios with their finger on the trigger just waiting to hit send?

FB erased a market cap the size of all of coca cola yesterday.  There's serious consequence behind that movement.  And the market was pricing that before having absorbed the written report, before listening to and questioning and interacting with the executives on the call?  This kinda blows my mind.

And on the domino effect, I think we already have that in place.  We have literally derivatives of derivatives of derivatives of derivatives that are interdependent in all sorts of perverse ways.  SPX is the sum of the equities.  Option premium on SPX is the price of its vol.  VIX is a measurement of those premiums.  VIX futures is a market for that price forward time.  You can trade the options on the VIX futures.  Or you can trade an ETP based on the rolling sum of VIX futures (VXX, UVXY, SVXY, etc).  And you can trade options on those ETPs, too.  And not to mention unlisted/otc/private swaps.

So whats the butterfly effect when you wind something along that chain?  Very nuts to think about.

[Guest]

Saw someone on twitter say that stocks are too volatile and they are moving to crypto. 😁

[52-80 19379]

So this is wild.  Same Q last year AMZN delivered $14 EPS.  This year Wall St expected $3 in EPS.  Amazon delivered $27.

That variance is insane.  But then again, $23 of that is from a one-off event.

 

So the algo was ignorant and blind?  The traders moving size didn't really read the report?  Or they'll process this tomorrow and the stock will sink back down?  Or the beat  of $4.85 (excluding Rivian) over $3 expectation justifies the $400 pop?

 

[Blotto 23974]

1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

 

Firstly, there is noooo fucking rationale to the 5 or so biggest public companies in the fucking world to go up and down 25% in a fucking day, in consecutive days, on grounds of earnings.

Secondly, the prices that these things peg at are established literally seconds to minutes after the information is public.  I'm literally hitting F5 on the SEC's EDGAR database and each company's Investor Relations page at :00 minute to see the new Q/K results, and the +/- 200-500 point swing of Google and Amazon instantly print.  There is no sensible human explanation for that.  Are we saying someone allowed their robot to trade 25% away from closing price in the illiquid afterhour sessions, based on the algo hoovering up preprogrammed metrics (net income, etc) using an API to EDGAR?  Or someone preprogrammed IF ELSE scenarios with their finger on the trigger just waiting to hit send?

FB erased a market cap the size of all of coca cola yesterday.  There's serious consequence behind that movement.  And the market was pricing that before having absorbed the written report, before listening to and questioning and interacting with the executives on the call?  This kinda blows my mind.

And on the domino effect, I think we already have that in place.  We have literally derivatives of derivatives of derivatives of derivatives that are interdependent in all sorts of perverse ways.  SPX is the sum of the equities.  Option premium on SPX is the price of its vol.  VIX is a measurement of those premiums.  VIX futures is a market for that price forward time.  You can trade the options on the VIX futures.  Or you can trade an ETP based on the rolling sum of VIX futures (VXX, UVXY, SVXY, etc).  And you can trade options on those ETPs, too.  And not to mention unlisted/otc/private swaps.

So whats the butterfly effect when you wind something along that chain?  Very nuts to think about.

it really is ridiculous. While SNAP isnt one of the 5 largest companies, wtf

Here are the key numbers:

Earnings per share: 22 cents, adjusted vs 10 cents expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts
Revenue: $1.3 billion vs $1.2 billion, according to Refinitv
Global Daily Active Daily Users (DAUs): 319 million vs 316.9 million, according to StreetAccount
Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $4.06 vs $3.79, according to StreetAccount

Its a beat across all those metrics. Specifically they booked $100 million more in revenue than expected, and their "adjusted" earnings per share was .12 cents per share higher than expected. the result is their market cap went from $40 billion to $60 billion. Just like Amazons adjusted earnings were largely driven by the rivian stock sale, who knows what is in Snaps numbers. Crazy times

 

[Dbeasy 15526]

I own Amzn and they are a very strong firm. With that said, I believe the loading of mostly Chinese junk on their e-commerce site will be the undoing of them. It will just take awhile.