Markets still falling like whoa

[52-80 19101]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

it really is ridiculous. While SNAP isnt one of the 5 largest companies, wtf

Here are the key numbers:

Earnings per share: 22 cents, adjusted vs 10 cents expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts
Revenue: $1.3 billion vs $1.2 billion, according to Refinitv
Global Daily Active Daily Users (DAUs): 319 million vs 316.9 million, according to StreetAccount
Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $4.06 vs $3.79, according to StreetAccount

Its a beat across all those metrics. Specifically they booked $100 million more in revenue than expected, and their "adjusted" earnings per share was .12 cents per share higher than expected. the result is their market cap went from $40 billion to $60 billion. Just like Amazons adjusted earnings were largely driven by the rivian stock sale, who knows what is in Snaps numbers. Crazy times

 

Next time someone says market is efficient we gonna need to ask why, in the information age, what unknown market-moving info caused SNAP to lose 25% in one day and gain 40% the next 

[Incredulity 11563]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I own Amzn and they are a very strong firm. With that said, I believe the loading of mostly Chinese junk on their e-commerce site will be the undoing of them. It will just take awhile. 

Item availability and delivery times are so much worse than pre-covid.  They also had deteriorated prior to covid in my opinion.  I don’t even bother looking much anymore. 

[Muny_Tex 292]

 
Firstly, there is noooo fucking rationale to the 5 or so biggest public companies in the fucking world to go up and down 25% in a fucking day, in consecutive days, on grounds of earnings.
Secondly, the prices that these things peg at are established literally seconds to minutes after the information is public.  I'm literally hitting F5 on the SEC's EDGAR database and each company's Investor Relations page at :00 minute to see the new Q/K results, and the +/- 200-500 point swing of Google and Amazon instantly print.  There is no sensible human explanation for that.  Are we saying someone allowed their robot to trade 25% away from closing price in the illiquid afterhour sessions, based on the algo hoovering up preprogrammed metrics (net income, etc) using an API to EDGAR?  Or someone preprogrammed IF ELSE scenarios with their finger on the trigger just waiting to hit send?
FB erased a market cap the size of all of coca cola yesterday.  There's serious consequence behind that movement.  And the market was pricing that before having absorbed the written report, before listening to and questioning and interacting with the executives on the call?  This kinda blows my mind.
And on the domino effect, I think we already have that in place.  We have literally derivatives of derivatives of derivatives of derivatives that are interdependent in all sorts of perverse ways.  SPX is the sum of the equities.  Option premium on SPX is the price of its vol.  VIX is a measurement of those premiums.  VIX futures is a market for that price forward time.  You can trade the options on the VIX futures.  Or you can trade an ETP based on the rolling sum of VIX futures (VXX, UVXY, SVXY, etc).  And you can trade options on those ETPs, too.  And not to mention unlisted/otc/private swaps.
So whats the butterfly effect when you wind something along that chain?  Very nuts to think about.

Excellent post, thanks for the context.

My follow-on questions echo same original rhetoric: who does this possibly benefit besides a small group of highly sophisticated I-banks/hedge funds?

If the algos can react/front-run good news and off-load bad news before we can even read one sentence of an earnings release (much less digest the data), how do we stand a chance of consistently ending up on the right side of these volcanic price swings; even if we’ve done all our homework?

Furthermore, if vast majority of us outside Surly 1% have the bulk of our portfolios trapped inside “employer approved” 401ks…then can’t these same scumbags already “see our cards” before we even start “wagering”….since we are often hamstrung by a handful of mutual funds and ETFs (many of which have significant exposure to blue chips like $FB)?

I think the typical justification has been “quit your bitching muppet, you made 25% return on your index funds last year, didn’t ya?”…but it’s become a losing proposition when I’m (best case) earning tens of thousands and big fish/institutions (who are now directly competing with me for scarce assets like real estate) are making multi-millions by leveraging a rigged system/stacked deck.

I’ll leave it there before it gets Cloaky, but would be interested to hear some other perspectives.


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[Muny_Tex 292]

Also bonus rant re: Snapchat

Congrats on taking almost a decade to become profitable at nearly the exact moment that TikTok has rendered your entire application played out/obsolete.

Snaps daily users evidently beat estimates, but how much of that growth occurred in the last 18 months (as opposed to carry over from when it was still relevant 3 yrs ago), compared to TikTok who literally has a billion people wiggle-dicking on their phones everyday? Same thing with the comparative rates of per person engagement, volume of content uploads etc.

Snap is on life support with the biggest demos/countries that matter yet somehow it gets to print X billion $$$ tomorrow because the masterminded computers say so?

I promise I’ll hang up and listen for a few days, but this is some serious bullshit and I don’t even have any financial stake/position here.


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[Incredulity 11563]

35 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

“quit your bitching muppet, you made 25% return on your index funds last year, didn’t ya?

[bluto 4895]

Amazon bumping prime up has me crunching my numbers on if I’m actually coming out ahead. Their movie/show stuff is kinda shit once hbo broke off and their music continues to slide more into premium land, not sure if I’m actually saving $140 on better prices/free shipping. Plus I live within a 10 min drive of every retail imaginable. 

[52-80 19101]

6 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

Excellent post, thanks for the context.

My follow-on questions echo same original rhetoric: who does this possibly benefit besides a small group of highly sophisticated I-banks/hedge funds?

If the algos can react/front-run good news and off-load bad news before we can even read one sentence of an earnings release (much less digest the data), how do we stand a chance of consistently ending up on the right side of these volcanic price swings; even if we’ve done all our homework?

Furthermore, if vast majority of us outside Surly 1% have the bulk of our portfolios trapped inside “employer approved” 401ks…then can’t these same scumbags already “see our cards” before we even start “wagering”….since we are often hamstrung by a handful of mutual funds and ETFs (many of which have significant exposure to blue chips like $FB)?

I think the typical justification has been “quit your bitching muppet, you made 25% return on your index funds last year, didn’t ya?”…but it’s become a losing proposition when I’m (best case) earning tens of thousands and big fish/institutions (who are now directly competing with me for scarce assets like real estate) are making multi-millions by leveraging a rigged system/stacked deck.

I’ll leave it there before it gets Cloaky, but would be interested to hear some other perspectives.


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The funny thing is that these hedge funds aren't especially profitable.  In aggregate, it's proven over a long time that they underperform the market, and even their own benchmarks.  It's just an industry of fees built on a veneer of sophistication.

My opinion is that it is very difficult to argue that these n'th order derivative products should exist.  It's a hedging tool against a hedge of a hedge ad infinitum.  They have no raison d'etre or utility except as a betting instrument.  But it's difficult to argue to banish them.  People will find a way to make bets on their notions anyway.

Main street's passive portfolio did really really well (except mine, i gambled last year).  It's just become more volatile because of the above.  So far all the aforementioned bullshit has only hurt the inside-baseball players and not everyone else, so that's good so far.

 

[Superhero 8781]

11 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Man, Amazon is a weird company. The trucks, warehouses, boxes, employees that you see? That's stopped growing. Online sales were flat year over year. It's AWS and Advertising that are killing it. 

 

Anyone telling that Amazon stopped building warehouses is woefully ignorant. In the past 2 years, our company has bid on on 8 warehouses and built 3. We have 2 more coming up in the next 6 with a developer we like, and that's just one developer out dozens around the country. The biggest one I've seen so far is 3.8 millions SF going for over $300M, sometimes over $400M in California. That's just the shell without tens, if not hundreds of millions in equipment and robotics that go inside the warehouse. Amazon is so bullish on warehouses that they have agreements with the steel and joist fabricators to get priority. I see them building for at least a few more years.

And with each warehouse, comes hundreds of $15/hour jobs.

On the white collar side of the company, they are building more office space at HQ2. My company has already built 2 of the new office buildings with a few more on the way. They're also planning to build the "Helix" which will eat into their EPS, but they don't care. They're AMZN. As long as people are addicted to cheap iPhone cables, or being too lazy to shop elsewhere, they will keep selling.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

14 hours ago, 52-80 said:

FB erased a market cap the size of all of coca cola yesterday.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Superhero said:

Anyone telling that Amazon stopped building warehouses is woefully ignorant. In the past 2 years, our company has bid on on 8 warehouses and built 3. We have 2 more coming up in the next 6 with a developer we like, and that's just one developer out dozens around the country. The biggest one I've seen so far is 3.8 millions SF going for over $300M, sometimes over $400M in California. That's just the shell without tens, if not hundreds of millions in equipment and robotics that go inside the warehouse. Amazon is so bullish on warehouses that they have agreements with the steel and joist fabricators to get priority. I see them building for at least a few more years.

And with each warehouse, comes hundreds of $15/hour jobs.

On the white collar side of the company, they are building more office space at HQ2. My company has already built 2 of the new office buildings with a few more on the way. They're also planning to build the "Helix" which will eat into their EPS, but they don't care. They're AMZN. As long as people are addicted to cheap iPhone cables, or being too lazy to shop elsewhere, they will keep selling.

I think you're referring to me. Let me rephrase what I said as I see it was ham-handed. I'm not saying that they aren't hiring, building warehouses, etc. I was trying to say that online sales (which is all the public stuff we all see like trucks, employees, warehouses, etc.) has flatlined:

Advertising and AWS are making up for it.

[Superhero 8781]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I think you're referring to me. Let me rephrase what I said as I see it was ham-handed. I'm not saying that they aren't hiring, building warehouses, etc. I was trying to say that online sales (which is all the public stuff we all see like trucks, employees, warehouses, etc.) has flatlined:

Advertising and AWS are making up for it.

I know AWS is the bulk of the revenue. I'm picking on your statement about their investment on infrastructure being stagnant which is not the case.

I don't care how they make their money as long as the make it and my AMZN shares keep going up.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Superhero said:

I know AWS is the bulk of the revenue. I'm picking on your statement about their investment on infrastructure being stagnant which is not the case.

I don't care how they make their money as long as the make it and my AMZN shares keep going up.

I think you mean bulk of their profit. 

[Blotto 23434]

13 hours ago, bluto said:

Amazon bumping prime up has me crunching my numbers on if I’m actually coming out ahead. Their movie/show stuff is kinda shit once hbo broke off and their music continues to slide more into premium land, not sure if I’m actually saving $140 on better prices/free shipping. Plus I live within a 10 min drive of every retail imaginable. 

Just saw this regarding the price increase....

Quote

When Amazon.com Inc. announced it was raising the price of its Prime program, the company said an annual subscription would climb $20 to $139. But slightly more than half of Prime members will end up forking over almost $180 a year.

That’s because they pay each month, a fee that’s rising to $14.99 from $12.99. The company introduced the monthly subscription in 2016 to attract more middle- and low-income shoppers. The strategy worked, and 52% of subscribers now pay each month, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.

Even though they pay more, monthly subscribers are almost as loyal as annual members, with about 97% of them likely to renew compared with 99% for their counterparts, said the Chicago research firm, which conducts quarterly surveys.

“Even though monthly members pay somewhat more on an annual basis, members like that they have a smaller cash outlay and the perceived flexibility,” said Josh Lowitz, CIRP’s co-founder. “Despite the option to pause and re-start monthly membership, our data suggests that only a very small percentage truly cherry-pick their Amazon Prime months.”

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

On 2/3/2022 at 3:38 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Man, Amazon is a weird company. The trucks, warehouses, boxes, employees that you see? That's stopped growing. Online sales were flat year over year. It's AWS and Advertising that are killing it. 

 

Been that way pretty much forever.

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

On 2/3/2022 at 7:36 PM, Muny_Tex said:

If the algos can react/front-run good news and off-load bad news before we can even read one sentence of an earnings release (much less digest the data), how do we stand a chance of consistently ending up on the right side of these volcanic price swings; even if we’ve done all our homework?

Hold index funds and hope for good reactions.

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

Frontier and Spirit are merging to create an even bigger shitty airline.  Look forward the airport fights.

Peloton seems to be in play for multiple buyers.  Personally, I'm hoping for Apple.  I like the product and hope it sticks around.  Amazon would be good as well being that they don't seem to care about profit.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Frontier and Spirit are merging to create an even bigger shitty airline.  Look forward the airport fights.

Peloton seems to be in play for multiple buyers.  Personally, I'm hoping for Apple.  I like the product and hope it sticks around.  Amazon would be good as well being that they don't seem to care about profit.

Hopefully Amazon or Apple pays $50 a share for them so I can get out at break even

[tbone_ 14027]

Frontier and Spirit are merging to create an even bigger shitty airline.  Look forward the airport fights.
Peloton seems to be in play for multiple buyers.  Personally, I'm hoping for Apple.  I like the product and hope it sticks around.  Amazon would be good as well being that they don't seem to care about profit.

Amazon doesn’t care about profit?

[ATexanAbroad 627]

I can't believe anyone bought a one trick pony (peloton) in the midst of a pandemic where gyms were closed thinking this company was going anywhere. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

13 hours ago, ATexanAbroad said:

I can't believe anyone bought a one trick pony (peloton) in the midst of a pandemic where gyms were closed thinking this company was going anywhere. 

I haven’t done any research outside of my own attempts to socialize, but many people seem to have gotten far more comfortable with their lack of in-person social interaction. Besides, comparing the sales numbers during and post COVID wouldn’t exactly be useful in predicting future success. Of course there will be a drop off. If you’re referring to the stock price, pretty much everything is fucked. 

[52-80 19101]

PTON +26% against background of acquisition rumor

PTON is not a pandemic play.  It was coincident with the Russell and mid cap tech and a whole lot of other things that exploded around that time frame.  The proposition and appeal of PTON has never changed. 

[ATexanAbroad 627]

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

PTON +26% against background of acquisition rumor

PTON is not a pandemic play.  It was coincident with the Russell and mid cap tech and a whole lot of other things that exploded around that time frame.  The proposition and appeal of PTON has never changed. 

Dead cat bounce before Amazon buys it at $20 a share and it drops another 50%

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

Since Peloton is trending it’s worth revisiting this lol thread. 
 

 

[HouTex 1851]

Question for those with good crystal balls.  I recently turned 59 1/2 and I rolled over my 401k into my IRA.  The process required me to liquidate everything in my 401k (about 88% equity-based funds and 12% in what I call a cash equivalent fund).  Luckily, everything sold last Wednesday the day before NASDAQ went down 3.75%.  The funds will be in my IRA today or tomorrow.  I'm not planning to retire for a while--late 60's maybe.  I rarely trade my retirement accounts except for the occasional re-allocation so my historical approach is to go long and stay in high rated equity funds.  Should I wait or get back in now?

[txduck87 983]

Question for those with good crystal balls.  I recently turned 59 1/2 and I rolled over my 401k into my IRA.  The process required me to liquidate everything in my 401k (about 88% equity-based funds and 12% in what I call a cash equivalent fund).  Luckily, everything sold last Wednesday the day before NASDAQ went down 3.75%.  The funds will be in my IRA today or tomorrow.  I'm not planning to retire for a while--late 60's maybe.  I rarely trade my retirement accounts except for the occasional re-allocation so my historical approach is to go long and stay in high rated equity funds.  Should I wait or get back in now?

No one can “crystal ball”. Have your asset allocation set and put it in now. You’ll be happy In 10 years


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[ATexanAbroad 627]

With rate hikes through out the year equities will probably be effected, that is the bear thought process.

Job reports havent been bad, supply chain will resolve over time, rate hikes might be priced in to a degree, these are bull arguments.

 

Smart money would probably tell you to dollar cost average in through out the year on big dips or just during each quarter. It doesnt hurt to put in a quarter now with the drop.

Edited February 8, 2022 by ATexanAbroad

[Wally Fairway 5526]

1 hour ago, HouTex said:

Question for those with good crystal balls.  I recently turned 59 1/2 and I rolled over my 401k into my IRA.  The process required me to liquidate everything in my 401k (about 88% equity-based funds and 12% in what I call a cash equivalent fund).  Luckily, everything sold last Wednesday the day before NASDAQ went down 3.75%.  The funds will be in my IRA today or tomorrow.  I'm not planning to retire for a while--late 60's maybe.  I rarely trade my retirement accounts except for the occasional re-allocation so my historical approach is to go long and stay in high rated equity funds.  Should I wait or get back in now?

Smart money is too put it back into the market and not try to time things, my advice is to put it into options and leverage your gains; Surly posters will tell you the best thing to do is whatever is the opposite of what Wally does.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Wally Fairway

[Blotto 23434]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

PTON +26% against background of acquisition rumor

PTON is not a pandemic play.  It was coincident with the Russell and mid cap tech and a whole lot of other things that exploded around that time frame.  The proposition and appeal of PTON has never changed. 

 I'm sure it wasn't originally conceived as a company waiting around for a pandemic, and I guess you can argue that you personally never considered it a pandemic play, but if you set a custom time range of 1/1/20-1/1/21 in a google search for "peloton pandemic" there are countless articles discussing how peloton's business was skyrocketing because of the pandemic, and just as many suggesting PTON stock as a way to benefit from the pandemic.

Its no coincidence their revenues peaked in march 2021 (about the same time as widespread vaccine availability) and have since fallen by 1/3. Sure there may be a business without Covid, but its market cap would never have sniffed $50 billion without the pandemic. And once it hit those unsustainable levels it was absolutely a pandemic play. 

 

[52-80 19101]

19 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 I'm sure it wasn't originally conceived as a company waiting around for a pandemic, and I guess you can argue that you personally never considered it a pandemic play, but if you set a custom time range of 1/1/20-1/1/21 in a google search for "peloton pandemic" there are countless articles discussing how peloton's business was skyrocketing because of the pandemic, and just as many suggesting PTON stock as a way to benefit from the pandemic.

Its no coincidence their revenues peaked in march 2021 (about the same time as widespread vaccine availability) and have since fallen by 1/3. Sure there may be a business without Covid, but its market cap would never have sniffed $50 billion without the pandemic. And once it hit those unsustainable levels it was absolutely a pandemic play. 

 

IMO those articles are just coincident and convenient post-hoc narrative those authors wrote to explain the price...as financial media are won't to do.

 

Around that time a lot of stocks exploded ... and eventually fell ... all at the same rate.  (SPACs fit in there nicely too).

NFLX is the popular "pandemic play" and it's the bottom line in red.  SPY is the candle bar.

The rest of the stuff is like internet backbone, tv streamers,  sportsbook company, etc.  You could argue they're stay-at-home adjacent but I think it's all just part of the smid-cap euphoria

[Parliament 14145]

6 hours ago, HouTex said:

Question for those with good crystal balls.  I recently turned 59 1/2 and I rolled over my 401k into my IRA.  The process required me to liquidate everything in my 401k (about 88% equity-based funds and 12% in what I call a cash equivalent fund).  Luckily, everything sold last Wednesday the day before NASDAQ went down 3.75%.  The funds will be in my IRA today or tomorrow.  I'm not planning to retire for a while--late 60's maybe.  I rarely trade my retirement accounts except for the occasional re-allocation so my historical approach is to go long and stay in high rated equity funds.  Should I wait or get back in now?

You have a Peleton in your solarium don't you?  Cheeky wanker.

[ATexanAbroad 627]

when is robinhood a good buy based on a buyout?

22 million users and 3 billion in cash?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

3 billion in cash?

Is that free cash or cash held for users investments.

[ATexanAbroad 627]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Is that free cash or cash held for users investments.

Fuck, I am trying to remember what the article said....

[ATexanAbroad 627]

Shit, cant remember

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

10 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

Fuck, I am trying to remember what the article said....

Checking out their Q3 balance sheet, it appears to be about 6 million in cash.

https://investors.robinhood.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Cheeseweasel

[Redneck Mutha 7935]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Checking out their Q3 balance sheet, it appears to be about 6 million in cash.

https://investors.robinhood.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

 

Would place them solidly in the top 50% of Surly posters. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 minutes ago, Redneck Mutha said:

Would place them solidly in the top 50% of Surly posters. 

Before or after IBRX results?

[ballrific 215]

6 billion/million, whatever

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

10 minutes ago, ballrific said:

6 billion/million, whatever

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Is that free cash or cash held for users investments.

In their eyes, cash held for users' investments is free cash to the firm.

Prove me wrong.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

30 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

In their eyes, cash held for users' investments is free cash to the firm.

Prove me wrong.

I like the way you think.

[Blotto 23434]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Checking out their Q3 balance sheet, it appears to be about 6 million in cash.

https://investors.robinhood.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

 

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

 

[WBT 20429]

DIS popped 8% on earnings.  130 million subscribers to + and theme park revenue doubled over last year.

[Incredulity 11563]

6 hours ago, WBT said:

DIS popped 8% on earnings.  130 million subscribers to + and theme park revenue doubled over last year.

That sucks, was targeting a buy on an omicron miss.  But, just proves single stock picking is one fickle bitch.

 

[Archer 474]

10 hours ago, Incredulity said:

That sucks, was targeting a buy on an omicron miss.  But, just proves single stock picking is one fickle bitch.

 

Me too, I was hoping for a $130 entry. 
 

I’ve missed several buys that have taken off that flirted with my entry number but never hit it. 

[Muny_Tex 292]

I always get a good laugh when Invesco’s “Low Volatility” ETF ($SPLV) drops more than the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq in a single trading day.

Was down a full 2% last I checked.


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[Wally Fairway 5526]

I swear, I didn't do anything!

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

I swear, I didn't do anything!

[LTtxfan 48999]

5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I swear, I didn't do anything!