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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5526

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

No joke.  I am thinking about just unwinding the positions I took yesterday AM and pocketing the money cause this all feels illogical. 

Take the profit, at least enough to cover your investment.

I wish I'd sold more of my puts over the last few days, but I did cover my costs.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5526

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Blotto said:

I sold the calls in the afternoon for .15 (entry price was .14 per contract) as I dont expect SPY to approach anywhere close to 440 tomorrow. So the net trade was really just the puts side which was a .15 entry and 1.20 exit. Not too shabby.

Gotta hit a few 10 baggers to pay for the ones that go sideways. And I have plenty of those as well. 

Whoa Nelly (as Keith Jackson would say) 

Shit keeps moving up, high fit the days is $0.44, currently at $0.26.

This move is going to make me look at a couple of strangles into next week

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
On 2/23/2022 at 1:38 PM, ATexanAbroad said:

fuck it, bought more AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and TSLA on this dip. Havent bought anything in the past 10 days so time to average down. I also think Putin is overplaying his hand and russia is fucked. This is an overreaction from a market that hasnt been anything but hot since Trump was fondling chicas on Apprentice. 

Super pumped I did but was not happy yesterday morning

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2718

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

I just bought my first position of 5 I plan to take. In @ 7.85

This is a yolo move and one I'd like to participate in.  I looked at it and RSX biggest concentration is Sberbank at 8%.  Sberbank collapsed 95% today and has lost 99.9% of its value thus far.  I'm still waiting.  Saw after the close this happened

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220302006090/en/VanEck-Russia-ETF-RSX-Creation-Orders-to-Be-Suspended

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

This is a yolo move and one I'd like to participate in.  I looked at it and RSX biggest concentration is Sberbank at 8%.  Sberbank collapsed 95% today and has lost 99.9% of its value thus far.  I'm still waiting.  Saw after the close this happened

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220302006090/en/VanEck-Russia-ETF-RSX-Creation-Orders-to-Be-Suspended

yolo with me baby lets bathe in the gains off the blood of innocents. aka oligarching

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52-80

52-80 19101

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

This is a yolo move and one I'd like to participate in.  I looked at it and RSX biggest concentration is Sberbank at 8%.  Sberbank collapsed 95% today and has lost 99.9% of its value thus far.  I'm still waiting.  Saw after the close this happened

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220302006090/en/VanEck-Russia-ETF-RSX-Creation-Orders-to-Be-Suspended

That news is ironically bullish for rsx. Creation is the mechanism that pulls overpriced etf back to irs nav. (Redemption pushes underpriced etf back to nav). 
 

no creation of new shares ‘allows’ the fixed float of rsx to become untethered from , presumably, tanked underlying price. 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2718

Posted
Posted
That news is ironically bullish for rsx. Creation is the mechanism that pulls overpriced etf back to irs nav. (Redemption pushes underpriced etf back to nav). 
 
no creation of new shares ‘allows’ the fixed float of rsx to become untethered from , presumably, tanked underlying price. 

So it will trade purely on sentiment? Unrelated to actual values of represented companies?
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52-80

52-80 19101

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


So it will trade purely on sentiment? Unrelated to actual values of represented companies?

Yeap. And we have no idea how the represented companies trade because the russian market where theyre primarily listed is frozen

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52-80

52-80 19101

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brew said:

Of the Russian ETF’s, isn’t RSX about the only one that is trading at a multiple of it’s underlying value? Most all of the others seem to be trading at a discount to their underlying values at this time. 

problem is none of the published indicative net value are correct.  some calculation may infer the value of those securities as traded on other foreign exchange (say Frankfurt or London) but on the primary exchange theyre all null

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

problem is none of the published indicative net value are correct.  some calculation may infer the value of those securities as traded on other foreign exchange (say Frankfurt or London) but on the primary exchange theyre all null

True.  But they've been pretty good in the past about "guessing/assuming" notional values of the underlying securities.  (granted, their value is theoretically 0 at this juncture, but that's not 100% realistic).  

 

If you think this thing won't last much longer than a few months, a decent contrarian bet would be buying the Jan '24 $10 strike calls, but the entire ETF is basically a call option at this juncture.  

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted

The people questioning why not buy RSX after a 90% decline are the same people that

-Didn't buy oil when it was negative

-Didnt buy American Airlines when it was $1

-wait until the upswing to buy the dip

Do you think the economy of Russia is just going away? There could be a peace deal next week or Russia could pull out. It will 3x that day. Worst case, Russia somehow never has the sanctions lifted? I don't see that happening. "When there is blood in the streets start buying". There is literal blood in the streets. 

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52-80

52-80 19101

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

and yet, amazingly, it always comes back doesnt it...

China cash-printing internet giants (baba, baidu, jd, etc) just dropped 50% from recent highs. It approached the local “low” we knew as the 2020 crisis. China is not involved in a war. 
 

Where it go from here?

55417091-80A4-43E6-9789-82F909124554.png

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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

problem is none of the published indicative net value are correct.  some calculation may infer the value of those securities as traded on other foreign exchange (say Frankfurt or London) but on the primary exchange theyre all null

Agreed, but the estimates on valuations that are out there show RSX to be trading at a 2X+ multiple of estimated values while others are trading at 40%.

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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ATexanAbroad said:

The people questioning why not buy RSX after a 90% decline are the same people that

-Didn't buy oil when it was negative

-Didnt buy American Airlines when it was $1

-wait until the upswing to buy the dip

Do you think the economy of Russia is just going away? There could be a peace deal next week or Russia could pull out. It will 3x that day. Worst case, Russia somehow never has the sanctions lifted? I don't see that happening. "When there is blood in the streets start buying". There is literal blood in the streets. 

There are a number of Russian ETF’s. The question was why RSX was the one to look at over some of the others that may be trading under estimated valuations rather than over.

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Brew said:

There are a number of Russian ETF’s. The question was why RSX was the one to look at over some of the others that may be trading under estimated valuations rather than over.

large cap russian equity vs something like rsxj that might be small cap and its highly concentrated in the blue bloods of russia as opposed to having maybe 50-200 different companies. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ATexanAbroad said:

The people questioning why not buy RSX after a 90% decline are the same people that

-Didn't buy oil when it was negative

-Didnt buy American Airlines when it was $1

-wait until the upswing to buy the dip

Do you think the economy of Russia is just going away? There could be a peace deal next week or Russia could pull out. It will 3x that day. Worst case, Russia somehow never has the sanctions lifted? I don't see that happening. "When there is blood in the streets start buying". There is literal blood in the streets. 

Watch Putin nationalize all the oil, metals companies. Kidding.....sort of. 

Edited by Blotto
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Woooooof. I'm mostly index funds (bad enough) the few individual holdings (all major mega-caps) are all down way more than the market. I sure can pick them.

Me no invest good.

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
On 3/5/2022 at 8:42 AM, ATexanAbroad said:

RSX seems to have found support in the 5s so yea time to buy

"finding support" and " CBOE is halting trading" arent quite the same thing. Will be interesting to watch the price action when (if)they ultimately resume trading. I guess they are halted until the Russian markets open again? 

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

"finding support" and " CBOE is halting trading" arent quite the same thing. Will be interesting to watch the price action when (if)they ultimately resume trading. I guess they are halted until the Russian markets open again? 

I would assume so, but even before it halted it bounced off the low 5 somethings hard and went back into 6, back into 5 afterhours an then was halted. It will be interesting. 

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