Markets still falling like whoa

[Trey3216 15325]

Down 38% at the moment.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Without a Net-flix

[52-80 19098]

Netflix's next hit documentary might be on how Netflix fucked up

[Blotto 23434]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Down 38% at the moment.  

There is gonna be some obscene profits on NFLX puts this week. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

18 minutes ago, Blotto said:

There is gonna be some obscene profits on NFLX puts this week. 

And an even more extreme carnage from NFLX calls. 
 

I don’t make predictions like this often but this is a definite buying opportunity. Implementation of a deterrent to account sharing, along with the introduction of a lower cost, ad supported tier,  will result in millions of new subscribers. 

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

Never been a huge fan of Netflix as a stock.  They don’t inherently own anything like the other platforms so they have to spend huge amounts of money to own it.  Also, a lot of their stuff is kind of average.  I know they can’t all be winners but there isn’t enough content to where you must keep your subscription all year.  I find myself not watching for long periods of time.

Also, why haven’t they dealt with subscription sharing until now?

[TonyTexas 10482]

21 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Never been a huge fan of Netflix as a stock.

Not a fan of a stock that’s up 18,000% in 20 years because it’s down from +60,000%? 

Edited April 20, 2022 by TonyTexas

[MrBig 5290]

Netflix has crappy original content and costs $15 to get 2 multiple streams in HD. You can get Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ for a $15 bundle. HBO Max is $15/mo and the new Batman movie is already on the platform. Paramount+ & Showtime bundle is around $12.

Paying $15 for Netflix to watch original content like “The Ultimatum” and “Is It Cake?” is not a good deal. Unless you love watching House of Cards reruns and the deep catalog of Adam Sandler and David Spade films.

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

23 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Not a fan of a stock that’s up 18,000% in 20 years because it’s down from +60,000%? 

Not when we’ve hit peak streaming.

[Blotto 23434]

38 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Not a fan of a stock that’s up 18,000% in 20 years because it’s down from +60,000%? 

Its all about timing and valuation. the competitive landscape for NFLX now is much different than it was 20 years ago. Really until the last 5 years they didnt have much competition, but they certainly do now. And much of the content they used to be able to provide has now been removed in favor of other platforms (Disney content etc...). They borrow a shit ton of money to produce their content and worry about paying that off in the future, fueled by subscription growth. If your subscriptions arent really growing, and you hit a ceiling on what you charge based on competitive offerings, your business model starts to leak oil. You feel they are ready to embark on a new round of explosive subscription growth, and if you are correct, its probably a good time to buy. I have my doubts. 

 

[MrBig 5290]

Netflix cracking down on password sharing looks desperate for their business model. Password sharing is a sign of growth and should be viewed as “all publicity is good publicity” to reach more viewers even if they aren’t technically paying. If people share passwords, it’s because they want to see Netflix content. Nobody is asking for my PBS Plus password to watch back episodes of Nova. 

And if Netflix thinks they can charge more for password sharing, they need to realize this isn’t 2005 where people are more than willing to pay $20 extra to move their cellular unlimited time from 9PM to 7PM. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

my individual stocks today:

 

AMD - red

AMZN - red

BE - red

CRM - red

FCEL - red

KO - green

MRNA - red

PFE - red

PYPL - red

SQ - red

TWTR - red

WDAY - red

 

my etfs

ICLN - red (truly a garbage fund)

SPY - green

VDE - green

VO- green

VOO - green

VTI - green

VTWO - green

VV- green 

VXF - green

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

You forgot IBRX

[WBT 20425]

54 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Nobody is asking for my PBS Plus password to watch back episodes of Nova. 

I mean, if you're offering

[Royalfan5 2348]

14 minutes ago, WBT said:

I mean, if you're offering

The lack of easy access to back episodes of NOVA is a definite hole in my life as well. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Not when we’ve hit peak streaming.

Then maybe you should have said that you haven’t been a fan recently vs saying you’ve never been a fan. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

On 4/19/2022 at 3:24 PM, Parliament said:

You'd think with all the differn't streaming services out there today we'd be at saturation.

We are, but gimmicky accounting and bullshit metrics have been hiding the fact until now.

[Trey3216 15325]

Of course Bill Ackman lost 1/2 a billion on NFLX this month.  Lol.  

[Vegas64 665]

20 hours ago, MrBig said:

Netflix cracking down on password sharing looks desperate for their business model. Password sharing is a sign of growth and should be viewed as “all publicity is good publicity” to reach more viewers even if they aren’t technically paying. If people share passwords, it’s because they want to see Netflix content. Nobody is asking for my PBS Plus password to watch back episodes of Nova. 

And if Netflix thinks they can charge more for password sharing, they need to realize this isn’t 2005 where people are more than willing to pay $20 extra to move their cellular unlimited time from 9PM to 7PM. 

Initially in a growth market and land rush, password sharing is a positive indicator and free eyeballs, etc. as you suggest.

However, in a more mature category now, it's a liability. Specifically, "Netflix estimates that “over 100 million” households worldwide are using shared Netflix accounts, including more than 30 million in the U.S. and Canada." according to their earning call.

That is a ton of meat on the bone and essentially giving away your service. Putting some guardrails in place for the password sharing that is rampant (e.g. not inner-household) seems like it's way overdue.

That said, Netflix needs to do something transformational (again) in the next 2-3 years or they will be toast IMO.

[Vegas64 665]

21 hours ago, Blotto said:

Its all about timing and valuation. the competitive landscape for NFLX now is much different than it was 20 years ago. Really until the last 5 years they didnt have much competition, but they certainly do now. And much of the content they used to be able to provide has now been removed in favor of other platforms (Disney content etc...). They borrow a shit ton of money to produce their content and worry about paying that off in the future, fueled by subscription growth. If your subscriptions arent really growing, and you hit a ceiling on what you charge based on competitive offerings, your business model starts to leak oil. You feel they are ready to embark on a new round of explosive subscription growth, and if you are correct, its probably a good time to buy. I have my doubts. 

 

As Twitter said it best: "This is what happens when a growth stock stops growing". 

We have a lot of these in the tech space. It could get ugly one day for that sector. For now, it's ugly for NFLX

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

31 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

That said, Netflix needs to do something transformational (again) in the next 2-3 years or they will be toast IMO.

They should have stores where you can rent videos. They could sell popcorn/candy etc. It's a blockbuster of an idea.

[Vegas64 665]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

They should have stores where you can rent videos. They could sell popcorn/candy etc. It's a blockbuster of an idea.

I was thinking more of gaming, which I think they are looking at. Maybe AR/VR to bring multi-media to life in the home or something. I don't know, but at some point the churn will kill them if they don't figure it out, I think.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

i grabbed some tsla yesterday betting the earnings would surpass.  now i want to get rid of it and take the cash.  i can't do that until the settlement date?

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i grabbed some tsla yesterday betting the earnings would surpass.  now i want to get rid of it and take the cash.  i can't do that until the settlement date?

You can, but just don't try and trade that unsettled cash again for a few days or you can get flagged.  

[Blotto 23434]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i grabbed some tsla yesterday betting the earnings would surpass.  now i want to get rid of it and take the cash.  i can't do that until the settlement date?

You can sell a stock 15 minutes after you buy it, the settlement date limits what you can do with the proceeds of the sale I believe. Here's what uncle chuck has to say on the matter

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/stock-settlement-why-you-need-to-understand-t2-timeline

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

looks like i'm good.  i went to my bank account, transferred the amount i needed over, then purchased on vanguard immediately.  it looks like that is not freeriding because the cash will get there before the settlement date, correct?

Quote

Freeriding violations occur when you buy a security in a cash account that lacks sufficient settled funds and then sell the same security before depositing funds to pay for its purchase. This violation can occur whether the purchase and sale occur on the same day or on different days. 

• The situation: 
  • Mr. Smith starts the day with $100 of settled cash in his account, and buys $1,000 of XYZ stock. The remaining $900 needed to cover the trade is due by the settlement date on T+2.
  • The next day, Mr. Smith still hasn't deposited the outstanding $900 he owes, but sells his XYZ shares for $1,500.
• The violation: Mr. Smith sold stock before paying for its purchase.
• The consequence: Industry regulations require the brokerage firm to freeze the account for 90 days, during which time trading is restricted to the amount of settled funds available. (At its discretion, Schwab may impose permanent restrictions or account closures.)
• Schwab cannot waive this restriction. However, if funds are deposited within the payment period to cover the entire purchase—generally four business days after the trade date—the violation may be downgraded to a good faith violation

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

37 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I was thinking more of gaming, which I think they are looking at.

No idea how that would work. Most gaming companies go thru Microsoft (Xbox) or Sony (Playstation) to sell their products. Can't imagine displacing them without the console to support it.

[Blotto 23434]

12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

No idea how that would work. Most gaming companies go thru Microsoft (Xbox) or Sony (Playstation) to sell their products. Can't imagine displacing them without the console to support it.

Its so simple, maybe you need a refresher course. Netflix will partner with Gamestop and AMC to create a gaming portal leveraging blockchain technologies, ball bearings, and gauze pads which in turn will unleash unrealized profits from emerging NFT markets.

 

🚀🚀🚀

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

STONKS!

[Wally Fairway 5526]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

STONKS!

Stink - Stank - Stonk

I shouldn't touch them with a 39 1/2 for pole

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

8 hours ago, Blotto said:

Its so simple, maybe you need a refresher course. Netflix will partner with Gamestop and AMC to create a gaming portal leveraging blockchain technologies, ball bearings, and gauze pads which in turn will unleash unrealized profits from emerging NFT markets.

 

🚀🚀🚀

 

 

You forgot the drones.

[Blotto 23434]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You forgot the drones.

Good point, lets add ALPP to this alliance

[bluto 4895]

If ya wanna tank growth/tech/speculation plays with this meltdown fine, makes sense. But how the duck is energy getting caught up in this with underlying commodities at 5 and 10 yr highs

[Blotto 23434]

8 minutes ago, bluto said:

If ya wanna tank growth/tech/speculation plays with this meltdown fine, makes sense. But how the duck is energy getting caught up in this with underlying commodities at 5 and 10 yr highs

What energy stocks are melting down?  I don't have a lot of energy stocks (unfortunately) but my two largest holdings (EOG, LNG) are up 30%+ YTD. I also have some CEQP (MLP) that I hold onto because it pays me a pretty regular 25% dividend off of my entry price in 2016, and even it has held up pretty well. they arent at all time highs, but they are far outperforming most of the rest of my portfolio. 

[bluto 4895]

XLE as a whole is down 6% in 48 hours 

[phdhorn 6224]

Whoo-HOO!  Great 4-digit dive!





What's that I see down the road?  Full-blown RECESSION!!
 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

My wealth is transitory.

[phdhorn 6224]

25 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

My wealth is transitory.

I'd drive to a cliffside and jump off, but I can't afford the gas anymore.

[phdhorn 6224]

Also I was way premature, fake news and all that. The market staged a massive last minute rally and only went down 981 points so it's a win-win for everybody.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

25 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Also I was way premature, fake news and all that. The market staged a massive last minute rally and only went down 981 points so it's a win-win for everybody.

[Harrison Stafford 3327]

4000-4100 is where the S&P needs to hold or it could get very ugly.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

7 hours ago, bluto said:

XLE as a whole is down 6% in 48 hours 

48 hours is fuck all.

[LTtxfan 48988]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

My wealth is transitory.

 

[Wally Fairway 5526]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

My wealth is transitory.

we didn't need that money anyway (new Stonk motto)

[Incredulity 11561]

[Murfdogg21 4412]

My accounts are proof the professionals know as much as the amateurs. We made a good chunk selling a house in Austin and buying in Houston in 2021. Inflation signs say don’t hold cash. Peak real estate prices say don’t buy real estate. Market seems fakely high but TINA right? Merrill Lynch boys had a great plan to only put in 10-15% of our money a month to protect against a sudden market downturn but catch some gains before the inevitable correction. Also lots of bullshit about hedging with some investments that perform opposite the market, and buying aggressive on the undervalued downturned shit. FML we are down 8.5% from our original cash deposit in spite of some of the money only being invested the last month or two. Anyone want to interest me Pampered Chef or speakers out of a van to invest in? I would’ve been better off buying some bonds and a new Bronco. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by Murfdogg21

[tbone_ 14026]

Do you need the money today? If not then who gives a shit what today’s value is. When the down goes to 100k you’ll be glad you bought at these prices.
































How’d I do?

[ATexanAbroad 627]

49 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

My accounts are proof the professionals know as much as the amateurs. We made a good chunk selling a house in Austin and buying in Houston in 2021. Inflation signs say don’t hold cash. Peak real estate prices say don’t buy real estate. Market seems fakely high but TINA right? Merrill Lynch boys had a great plan to only put in 10-15% of our money a month to protect against a sudden market downturn but catch some gains before the inevitable correction. Also lots of bullshit about hedging with some investments that perform opposite the market, and buying aggressive on the undervalued downturned shit. FML we are down 8.5% from our original cash deposit in spite of some of the money only being invested the last month or two. Anyone want to interest me Pampered Chef or speakers out of a van to invest in? I would’ve been better off buying some bonds and a new Bronco. 

wow youre a pussy. Nasdaq is down close to 20% YTD. You deserve to sweat. 

[Murfdogg21 4412]

8 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

wow youre a pussy. Nasdaq is down close to 20% YTD. You deserve to sweat. 

I didn’t say I was sweating, just bitching that my professional manager seems to perform worse than the surly stonk gods. But rolling in that new Bronco would’ve been nice. 

[ATexanAbroad 627]

3 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I didn’t say I was sweating, just bitching that my professional manager seems to perform worse than the surly stonk gods. But rolling in that new Bronco would’ve been nice. 

Your 8% down is down less than the overall indexes. You sold a house for a profit and bought another one. Do you think that professionals are suppose to be up 20% while the markets are down 20%? What is wrong with you. And are you retiring in the next 3 years? If not shut the fuck up and keep buying while diversifying. You are the person that every financial professional hates having to work with.