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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Why not harvest half the profits and buy 380 puts.   That’s 5% lower and would be house $$ as well.  

I will at some point, thats basically what i did in 2020 (over and over). I'm no options expert, so I'm sure I'm not taking the optimum route. I just havent had much time to fuck with trades this week because I was in a week long sales conference. But if the markets repeat what they did a couple of years ago, I will be a put buying machine..... and likely also stay short way too long.

I dont think the fall will be as drastic in as short a short period of time, but I also dont think the market will rebound nearly as strong. At some point the air needs to come out of the balloon. If the fed raises rates and trims the balance sheet (who knows if they actual will), whats going to drive the markets when free money is gone and we enter a recession? We gonna try negative interest rates in an inflationary environment? 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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tbone_

tbone_ 14026

Posted
Posted
Follow-up to my rosy post a few up:

- Worst single month since 2008.  You remember 2008, right?  I thought you did.
- Market is pushing hard for that coveted 4-digit plunge as I write this.  Wait for it... wait for it... man, this is exciting!!!  Got dammit, some last-second profit taking pushed the sucker back under 1K!  It quickly shit below the magic line, but popped back up.  MASSIVE rally only took it to -937.87.  How anticlimactic...

Nevertheless, the wealth lost today and especially this month can only be described as such:

BladeRunnerRoyBattySpeech.jpeg&f=1&nofb=1

Is this month really worse than Mar 20?
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Not a cat

Not a cat 5622

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Parliament said:

Yeah I think we're kinda fooked.

As someone who lived through 2000 and 2008 this shit is nothing so far.  Now the inflation aspect definitely makes me worry we're repeating the late 60s, which would be very very bad.

In all the retirement Monte Carlo calculations, the absolute worst time to retire was the late 60s.  High inflation and a sideways market for about 15 years.  That would fuck a lot of people.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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My opinion is that June through September of this year are extremely important.  We will see some rough times this quarter and possibly even recession (which is looking more and more likely), but the eventually ironing out of supply issues over the summer combined with continued relatively cheap access to capital and shifting demographics and social attitudes would keep general demand high, unemployment low, wages rising, and overall growth at least moderate.

My primary fears are an overreaction resulting in a dramatic shift in sentiment that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and/or companies generally overtesting margin limits to prevent the recession/downturn from being temporary.  Hopefully most don’t feel the need for margins to go up along with wages.

  • Hook 'Em 2
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11561

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

eventually ironing out of supply issues over the summer

Not looking for a slap fight.

 Hasn’t this been the narrative for over a year?  That it’s going to get better over, “the next 90 days”.  Given China’s current lockdowns I can’t see it.

 

21 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

My primary fears are an overreaction resulting in a dramatic shift in sentiment that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and/or companies generally overtesting margin limits to prevent the recession/downturn from being temporary

There is a feedback loop on everything from wages to raw materials.  There has to be a fairly significant slowdown to stop it.  I don’t want it, but am convinced we need it.

  • Hook 'Em 2
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Trevor Belmont

Trevor Belmont 19

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, wild_turkey said:


I’m still young and don’t mind index funds being on sale for a while.

I’d been sitting on 20-25% cash until Friday. Dumped it all into VTI. Can’t time the bottom, but if it keeps heading down I may sell a car for some extra cash to throw at it. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

4000 on the S&P looks like it's going to happen, then hold on to your butt.

 

shit, fuck, cocksucking, fuck, fuck, fuck.

Using Elliott Wave, a proper pullback from the last (5th wave) extension would put us at the 2300 level.  Talk about pucker factor...

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Using Elliott Wave, a proper pullback from the last (5th wave) extension would put us at the 2300 level.  Talk about pucker factor...

Ugh. I dumped so much in around 2500 back in March 2020 but because of the tech fall i'm below where I was then. If it goes down much more from here I might have to call game over.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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21 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

power hour engage.  LULZ

Yep.  Rolled my UVXY calls from last week to this week.   Fucker was up huge around lunch.  Came out of a meeting about 30 minutes ago to see my position has gone from up 60% to down 25% in about 40 minutes.  Nice.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Parliament said:

What the fuck is wrong with you?!

Nothing.  I said the same shit in March 2020 when we didn’t quite get back to the level that would have brought equilibrium to the market.    I’m just using a few technicals to see levels.  

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52-80

52-80 19098

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Posted

Got a string of luck today. Sold and bought SPX futures multiple times on the right side of the trade. Then almost bottom-ticked it perfectly at 4070 and rode it back to the top. 
 

Sounds nice and boastful, except got donkey-slammed on long gold, further underwater on EUR futures (should’ve put on stop-loss)…and some of my long gamma gambles were mistimed and expired. 
 

:farting noises:

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Vegas64

Vegas64 665

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bear markets are where you make money. Keep dumping the same amount of money (if not more) daily/weekly/monthly-- whatever your cadence-- and dollar cost average and max everything out and in a few years you'll be ecstatic. Because TINA.

Unless in a bear market versus a bull market you all of the sudden don't have access to disposable income to invest, then that sucks.

Edited by Vegas64
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