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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

I would give it a couple of days to see if we go below 4000 on the S&P.

 

But who the fuck really knows.

sub 4000 is a certainty, the question is whether we hit sub 3000, etc...a decline of that magnitude isnt unprecedented and we damn near had a 33% correction in 2020. a 33% correction from the S&P highs of ~$4800 gives you ~$3200. The Fed responded in 2020 with massive QE and near zero interest rates which supercharged the markets, but I don't think those levers are available with inflationary pressures. 

Setting aside the "flash" 2020 crash which the Fed erased with Jpow's printer, the last two corrections of the S&P were 2000 and 2008 which were both around 50% peak to trough. You can do the math on the 50% correction from a S&P high of $4800. I'm not not saying we're headed for $2400, but I think we have more pain ahead. The reality is that the Fed just bumped their rate to .5-1% last week. Rates will likely need to go much higher still, which will have repercussions. How will businesses navigate their markets when the cost of money is no longer basically free. Will they continue with massive stock buybacks when they cant borrow money cheaply to do it? After years of the Fed flooding the markets with liquidity, I think they realize they have to reverse course. But I struggle to see how they can do so in a meaningful way without further downward pressure in the markets. 

What if  supply chains dont unfuck themselves in the next few months continuing to limit businesses' ability to deliver product? And then there's a whole fucking host of issues with Europe/Russia, COVID, China, etc.... I made a bet back in Feb with a guy in my regular poker game that we would see SPY 360 by the end of summer. Its not a lot of money, so I hope I dont win that bet. But I'm guessing I will.  

 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

Posted
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7 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm guessing the great resignation is probably over. 

Not so sure.  I don’t see any softening in hiring yet and I’m still trying to hire people.

 Hopefully a little softening coming so that there is a soft landing outside of stocks.  The stock market luckily isn’t the economy.

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52-80

52-80 19379

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My CEO is playing the scoreboard game.  Bragging about stock price in internal call - something they havent talked about in years and years.

1. I don't think it's very healthy for CEOs to talk about the stock, should talk about execution instead.

2. He's bragging about superior post-earnings beat vs competitors.  Nevermind competitor is beating us on 3M,6M,YTD,1Y,3Y,5Y...basically every single arbitrary time out there

Edited by 52-80
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bluto

bluto 4980

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4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

 

2. He's bragging about superior post-earnings beat vs competitors.  Nevermind competitor is beating us on 3M,6M,YTD,1Y,3Y,5Y...basically every single arbitrary time out there

Aggy is publicly traded? 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

My CEO is playing the scoreboard game.  Bragging about stock price in internal call - something they havent talked about in years and years.

1. I don't think it's very healthy for CEOs to talk about the stock, should talk about execution instead.

2. He's bragging about superior post-earnings beat vs competitors.  Nevermind competitor is beating us on 3M,6M,YTD,1Y,3Y,5Y...basically every single arbitrary time out there

Please tell me where you work so I can short the shit out of it from spite.

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52-80

52-80 19379

Posted
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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Please tell me where you work so I can short the shit out of it from spite.

fun fact the company is trailing its competitors today by 350bps or 3.5% in absolute terms... maybe someone shouldve pointed that out in the call

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2331

Posted
Posted

That was the most limp dick bounce at 400. Next stop is the 380-385 range. 20% drop of spy is 384. Fibonacci retracement of 222 covid low to 480 high is around 381-382. I'll be taking a large position around there. After that is 360 and 350 for spy. My body is ready. I did exit my 400 spy position at a stop loss of 404 this morning. Don't care how others play. This is exciting for me in my own trading world.

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

Posted
Posted

inflation data will be out before the market opens tomorrow, will be interesting to see if there's any sign of a slowdown. I saw an interview with Cathie Woods earlier where she was discussing how her portfolio was down 60% YTD, but how everyone else was basically wrong and she was on the right path. She also said the Fed raising rates was a mistake, and claimed the markets sell off was the proof, lulz. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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3 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I thought the inflation started last April so while the number may look better tomorrow its on top of the already 6 % inflation April 2021 had from the prior year. Is this correct? 

It’s transitory compound inflation.   

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52-80

52-80 19379

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5 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Gold is at 1841, lowest since Feb. I don’t really understand the gold price action in general. It seems to go down when you expect it to go up. 

yeah its kicking my ass

also own coinbase stock and feel very attacked right now (opened day at 83, closed at 73, now 62 post-earnings).  i bought some puts for downside protection, but not enough to cushion the fall from my cost basis in the 200s 😒

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

yeah its kicking my ass

also own coinbase stock and feel very attacked right now (opened day at 83, closed at 73, now 62 post-earnings).  i bought some puts for downside protection, but not enough to cushion the fall from my cost basis in the 200s 😒

Transaction volumes are down horrifically in crypto, and gas is way up.  Just like in real life!

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