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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10482

Posted
Posted
On 3/25/2022 at 1:29 PM, 52-80 said:

Bought some calls on 20y treasury bond etf (tlt). 
 

its been taking a shit since all the expectations of increased interest rates. But because the bonds themselves have taken a shit, some institutions and funds might have to buy into them in a rebalance, even if discretionary traders are bearish on them

Seems to me that any rebalancing would trigger bond sales not buys. Assuming they are maintaining the same allocation, the big decline in the stock portion of the portfolio would necessitate buying more equities and selling bonds to maintain ratios.  Now if your talking reallocation, that’s a different story. 

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52-80

52-80 19097

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Seems to me that any rebalancing would trigger bond sales not buys. Assuming they are maintaining the same allocation, the big decline in the stock portion of the portfolio would necessitate buying more equities and selling bonds to maintain ratios.  Now if your talking reallocation, that’s a different story. 

Going into end of Q1 it was bonds with twice the decline, if using SPY/TLT as proxies. E.g. 60/40 exposure fund wouldve bought more bonds

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10482

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Going into end of Q1 it was bonds with twice the decline, if using SPY/TLT as proxies. E.g. 60/40 exposure fund wouldve bought more bonds

Rebalancing usually happens quarterly so you need to look at results since April 1. SPY is down 14.7%. TLT down 11.3%. 

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52-80

52-80 19097

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Rebalancing usually happens quarterly so you need to look at results since April 1. SPY is down 14.7%. TLT down 11.3%. 

Quoted post was from end of March. YTD at that point for SPY was -5% and TLT -10%

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Captainant

Captainant 27468

Posted
Posted
On 5/19/2022 at 4:09 PM, Captainant said:

back in economic terms: reverse repo markets (AKA - free floating money in the economy with zero velocity) hit a record high of $1,981,005,000,000

The stagflation is a comin, lads.

Fun update - NEW RECORD! There's now $2,044,658,000,000 of idle unused money in the economy. Gotta love greed for the sake of greed!

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Captainant

Captainant 27468

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/is-record-use-of-the-feds-reverse-repo-facility-a-sign-of-market-stress

Since the publication of this article in Aug'21, RRP has nearly doubled the amount of money that's stagnant. The author sunshine pumped that "market conditions will normalize by the end of this year (2021)", which I think I'm going to have to disagree with in hindsight lol

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31293

Posted
Posted
On 5/20/2022 at 8:54 AM, Trey3216 said:

Not in a treasury.  You'd basically be buying the bond at below par, collecting coupon payments ever 6 months, and having a YTM at 6-8%.  You'd never get a US Treasury issued with a 6-8% coupon.  

For hs graduation in the 80s, I was given a five-year CD at 9.375.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in dinner 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

This could be addicting, up $1,850 on a net investment of about $800, in one day.

What could go wrong, in gonna try it again when there is an irrational bounce. So maybe tomorrow or sometime next week. Risk be damned!

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
On 5/24/2022 at 12:37 PM, Wally Fairway said:

This could be addicting, up $1,850 on a net investment of about $800, in one day.

What could go wrong, in gonna try it again when there is an irrational bounce. So maybe tomorrow or sometime next week. Risk be damned!

I doubt volatility will subside much until we see sustained improvement on the inflation front, so I expect 1-2% swings in the markets fairly frequently as the algos do what they do. I fucked around this week and doubled up on a couple of  NVDA options plays. I told myself I was done and to bank the profits,  but with todays rally, I said fuck it and threw the profits at NVDA $160 puts expiring 6/3. Earnings are this afternoon and my hunch is that they will beat numbers but warn for the next qtr or two and we know how that has been going for the tech companies. Holding NVDA puts going into earnings would have been unthinkable for me the last couple of years, but these are different times. Its house money so it wont hurt quite so bad when I wake up tomorrow and see they are trading for $0.05 ($6.15 cost). Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I doubt volatility will subside much until we see sustained improvement on the inflation front, so I expect 1-2% swings in the markets fairly frequently as the algos do what they do. I fucked around this week and doubled up on a couple of  NVDA options plays. I told myself I was done and to bank the profits,  but with todays rally, I said fuck it and threw the profits at NVDA $160 puts expiring 6/3. Earnings are this afternoon and my hunch is that they will beat numbers but warn for the next qtr or two and we know how that has been going for the tech companies. Holding NVDA puts going into earnings would have been unthinkable for me the last couple of years, but these are different times. Its house money so it wont hurt quite so bad when I wake up tomorrow and see they are trading for $0.05 ($6.15 cost). Wheeeeeeeeeeee!

this is the way
sincerely - Mando

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted (edited)

bingo-tarantino.gif

Quote

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares dropped sharply in extended trading on Wednesday after the chipmaker reported strong first-quarter results but issued weak guidance for the upcoming quarter.

For the period ending May 1, the Jensen Huang-led Nvidia (NVDA) said it earned $1.36 per share on $8.29 billion in sales, up 46% year-over-year, thanks to "record revenue in Data Center and Gaming."

A consensus of Wall Street analysts expected Nvidia (NVDA) to earn $1.30 per share on $8.09 billion in sales.

However, the Santa Clara, California-based company said it expects second-quarter sales to be $8.1 billion, well below the $8.44 billion analysts were expecting. Nvidia (NVDA) attributed the shortfall to roughly a $500 million decline due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Covid-related lockdowns in China.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares plunged more than 9% to $154.02 on back of the results. Competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) followed suit, falling more than 2.5% to $90.09 after the report.

Will have to read what they say on their earnings call, but I think this will be a common refrain as for the next 3-6 months.

Edit - looks like NVDA is rallying somewhat, but worst case I should at least be able to get out tomorrow for a profit.

Edit #2 - what a kick in the nuts, got the prediction right, market didnt care. Had to sell at $3.50 in the morning basically wiping out half my profits from my earlier trades in the week. Its a shame you cant trade options after hours like you can the underlying. Oh well, on to the next one....

Edited by Blotto
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

Posted
Posted
On 5/23/2022 at 2:11 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

Time will only tell how closely I called the bottom.
Looks like it could be an expensive call

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Jester

Jester 382

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing it's a sneaky little bear market rally.  hopefully it's a typical one and lasts a few weeks or longer.  going to get everyone all comfortable like to re-invest.....  and then steal whatever money they have left.

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Time will only tell how closely I called the bottom.
Looks like it could be an expensive call

Agreed, right now we're just killing time until the next meaningful data is released. monthly CPI data, quarterly GDP (and subsequent revisions), employment figures. April inflation wasnt great and fuel prices have only increased since then. A lot of companies are warning about next quarters numbers, will they do the same next time around. The Fed still hasnt really done much in terms of rates and QE, so what effects will that actually have? We're still in the early innings of this thing IMO. way too early to tell if we have a winning strategy or a losing strategy.

Supply chain issues are still fucking things up as well. I heard an interview with the Intel CEO from Davos and he was pretty clear that he didnt see the chip supply chain issues returning to what we could consider normal until 2024. Maybe he's just posturing to get Congress to move on the $50 billion semiconductor bill, but its probably not getting better in 2022. 

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TxTower

TxTower 650

Posted
Posted
I'm guessing it's a sneaky little bear market rally.  hopefully it's a typical one and lasts a few weeks or longer.  going to get everyone all comfortable like to re-invest.....  and then steal whatever money they have left.

This


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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9798

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It's a shame that due to crushing inflation that no one had any money to go see Top Gun.

Consumer is fine.

Going to the movies is a lot cheaper than taking the family on a vacation

As to your point, overall ticket sales were down for the same weekend compared to last year. 

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14523

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Going to the movies is a lot cheaper than taking the family on a vacation

As to your point, overall ticket sales were down for the same weekend compared to last year. 

It's a shame that no one is flying or going to Disney because they saw Top Gun.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9798

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It's a shame that due to crushing inflation that no one had any money to go see Top Gun.

Consumer is fine.

Family buys $10 movie ticket. Declares recession over. 
 

Current economic situation may be good for Hollywood. 

In 2008 box office sales were strong. Cheap activities thrive during a downturn. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/movies/01films.html

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2259

Posted
Posted

Spy 430 ish is when I sell this latest run (or if my trailing stop loss hits) . I agree we have not had capitulation but that may not come until next year. Still kicking myself for not putting in more at 380. I bought a fair amount but I originally had a much bigger buy ready but I pussied out as is per the norm for me. I will say I am taking on much more risk than I have previously and am up high single digits in my money market account since January of this year just following and betting on  big resistance points. 

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