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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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Atlanta FED GDPNow was at .9 for Q2.  It was at 1.3 on June 1st. 

 

Last quarter, it did a similar drop and the final estimate I believe was .7.  So this is tracking toward a second straight negative quarter and recession by definition.   

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MoJames

MoJames 8258

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39 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Atlanta FED GDPNow was at .9 for Q2.  It was at 1.3 on June 1st. 

 

Last quarter, it did a similar drop and the final estimate I believe was .7.  So this is tracking toward a second straight negative quarter and recession by definition.   

So when do I buy a car?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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On 5/23/2022 at 2:11 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Today's bump made it seem like a good time to sell a couple of SPY 6/17 calls. 

And while I'm at it why not invest the proceeds in dinner 6/17 SPY puts.

What could go wrong? Time will tell

Shit - those have been a hell of a ride, were up early, went down for a couple of weeks, and just this week started to come back. Sold half this morning to take some of the profits that today's news drove. Holding to see what happens from here. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Shit - those have been a hell of a ride, were up early, went down for a couple of weeks, and just this week started to come back. Sold half this morning to take some of the profits that today's news drove. Holding to see what happens from here. 

In anticipation of the CPI report this morning, I bought some 6/10 SPY 400 puts with a strike for $.30 yesterday. Sold them at $6.00 this morning after the open and felt pretty good about it, but those fuckers are at 9.50 now.  Sadly, I only threw $240 at it, but between those and my larger positions in July 400 puts and Aug 390puts, my gamble portfolio is comfortably green today despite the carnage in just about every individual stock I hold. 

I'm overhedged right now, where if the markets move down my portfolio goes up. And I've been that way since early April. Buy puts, bank profits, rinse /repeat. SPY $350-$360 end of summer has always been my "dont know what the fuck I'm doing, but my best guess" gamble theory. I see nothing that will drive the markets consistently higher from here. Rate hikes havent really even started yet and energy concerns arent getting sorted out any time soon. And things are probably much better here than Europe, China and the rest of the world really. Shit could get interesting. Should be plenty of volatility in any case. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

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11 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Cramer is a clown, but I tried searching for that tweet just to laugh at the inevitable replies, and its nowhere to be found. I guess he could have deleted it, but my guess is someone faked it and posted it on r/WSB

Wait. Are you telling me the Internet fakes things? 

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5868

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Cramer is a clown, but I tried searching for that tweet just to laugh at the inevitable replies, and its nowhere to be found. I guess he could have deleted it, but my guess is someone faked it and posted it on r/WSB

If it were Cramer, there would have been a tweet with the exact opposite prediction 12 hours later. That’s how he is always “right”. 

Edited by Dr. Teeth
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Immaculate Vibes

Immaculate Vibes 114

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This is such a dope interview. Well worth the listen. So many interesting points but a few stood out to me. 
 

Every time we have knocked down 5% inflation it was by raising the Fed funds rate above cpi. That’s impossible now. 
 

There’s never been 5% inflation and been a soft landing. 
 

he calls recession early to mid 2023. 
 

overall this guy is just a goat but impressively humble given his record. Allsome. 
 

Interviewed by one of the brothers that co-founded Stripe, a payments behemoth. Still privately owned 

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texhorn

texhorn 356

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Posted
This is such a dope interview. Well worth the listen. So many interesting points but a few stood out to me. 
 
Every time we have knocked down 5% inflation it was by raising the Fed funds rate above cpi. That’s impossible now. 
 
There’s never been 5% inflation and been a soft landing. 
 
he calls recession early to mid 2023. 
 
overall this guy is just a goat but impressively humble given his record. Allsome. 
 
Interviewed by one of the brothers that co-founded Stripe, a payments behemoth. Still privately owned 

The recession is here now.
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JGrayDBU

JGrayDBU 369

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so it appears to me that the three indexes have not been in a bear at the same time yet this year.  Nasdaq 100 is bear now, and S and P 500 will be bear today or tomorrow?  Dow will be last to bear, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday, or Dow might avoid a bear? 

When do we get the official announcement we are in recession?  Am thinking that heads for more losses and the markets hit bottom sometime next year? Iow, this is not a quick in and out recession is it? This is a go deep and long 18 month recession, I am guessing.

 

There are going to be some low hanging fruit at some point, just don't know when. 

 

 

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