Markets still falling like whoa

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

23 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

There are going to be some low hanging fruit at some point, just don't know when.

Market timing is a fool's errand. 

[Guest]

Tell me why I shouldn't see these levels (and even if we go lower) as a buying opp?

I see inflation as being driven by consumer demand that spurred so much of this, and now being driven my high energy prices (that are in part high due to speculation, imo). Meanwhile, OPEC has said they will pump more and U.S. production is increasing. 

In my eyes it's not something like the pandemic or the blow-up of the housing market/Lehman where you didn't know what the hell the world would look like the next day. We have inflation, it's being addressed (fucking slowly), but the labor market is strong and balance sheets are strong. 

It can always get worse, but at this point I don't have that fear and trepidation I felt in 2008 or 2020. I do think we have a while to muddle through this stuff, but that's some good medicine for the past two years.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

16 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Market timing is a fool's errand. 

I resemble that remark

By the way - buy Duke Realty, I circled it on the heat map (it is the one in green)

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Tell me why I shouldn't see these levels (and even if we go lower) as a buying opp?

I see inflation as being driven by consumer demand that spurred so much of this, and now being driven my high energy prices (that are in part high due to speculation, imo). Meanwhile, OPEC has said they will pump more and U.S. production is increasing. 

In my eyes it's not something like the pandemic or the blow-up of the housing market/Lehman where you didn't know what the hell the world would look like the next day. We have inflation, it's being addressed (fucking slowly), but the labor market is strong and balance sheets are strong. 

It can always get worse, but at this point I don't have that fear and trepidation I felt in 2008 or 2020. I do think we have a while to muddle through this stuff, but that's some good medicine for the past two years.

I agree. It might be a rocky 18 months, but if you sell now, you're a fool. Best to do is hold and dollar cost average back into the market.

[52-80 19378]

[WBT 20884]

Good start to the week.  Cool, cool.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

This is fine.

[Parliament 14561]

Anyone got the number for that truck driving school?

[GabrielsHorn 2242]

As a younger person who doesn’t really plan on touching his investments for awhile, assuming this is a good time to get some ETFs that track the S&P500 and just wait a decade or two, right?

[Parliament 14561]

My opinion is it's a good time to wait 9-12 months, then buy some ETF's that track the S&P 500.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

Don't look now.  Get away from the computer.  Let's go fishing.

[Parliament 14561]

1 minute ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Don't look now.  Get away from the computer.  Let's go fisting.

1234

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

I’m preparing myself. I mean, we are probably witnessing the great collapse.  But at least we’ll do it together on the surl. Just like that time we stayed online all night for the boston marathon bomber. We shared police scanner links and posted real-time updates until dude was found in that boat. One of us made CNN. Mamber?

 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Shaggy3.0

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Good times, good times.

[52-80 19378]

it's been too long since we hit a circuit breaker.   2 whole years!

[Parliament 14561]

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

[Blotto 23974]

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

it's been too long since we hit a circuit breaker.   2 whole years!

yeah, i was thinking about that the other day. In March of 2020, the SPY decline was about 30% over the course of a month (March) and we hit the CBs a few times. But by April the climb back had already begun and around 6 months later (Aug) the indexes had made back all losses. This time around the decline hasnt been as severe (~20%) but we're 6 months out from the start of the decline and IMO no signs it will relent anytime soon. 

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

Possibly, but any action between now and Wed when the Fed delivers their next interest rate moves is really just an intermission. Its interesting to read people screaming for a bump of .75% ( or higher) rather than the .5% that the Fed has previously indicated for this step. If the Fed  does deviate from the .5% increase, I honestly don't know how the market will react. I guess some will take it as a positive that the Fed is finally taking inflation seriously, but with money getting more expensive at the same time that prices are still skyrocketing, that seems like a short term negative. I hope whoever maintains the code on all the algorithmic trading that is done these days have the  appropriate if-then statements baked in. 

 

 

[Muny_Tex 315]

So Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Lines have both now plummeted below their 2020 “Covid/World Is Ending/CruisingIsDoneForever” rock bottom levels…and Royal is getting damn close.

Hypothetically, if someone believes these carriers are not going bankrupt (at least not all of them)…what is the harm in buying all 3 if you can afford to wait out a ~12 month correction/stabilization…and then just sell them immediately any time along the way as soon as they pop up 25% or so?

Didn’t we already kinda learn this lesson with Hertz/Cinemark/etc ?

[Trey3216 15450]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

yeah, i was thinking about that the other day. In March of 2020, the SPY decline was about 30% over the course of a month (March) and we hit the CBs a few times. But by April the climb back had already begun and around 6 months later (Aug) the indexes had made back all losses. This time around the decline hasnt been as severe (~20%) but we're 6 months out from the start of the decline and IMO no signs it will relent anytime soon. 

Possibly, but any action between now and Wed when the Fed delivers their next interest rate moves is really just an intermission. Its interesting to read people screaming for a bump of .75% ( or higher) rather than the .5% that the Fed has previously indicated for this step. If the Fed  does deviate from the .5% increase, I honestly don't know how the market will react. I guess some will take it as a positive that the Fed is finally taking inflation seriously, but with money getting more expensive at the same time that prices are still skyrocketing, that seems like a short term negative. I hope whoever maintains the code on all the algorithmic trading that is done these days have the  appropriate if-then statements baked in. 

 

 

I said on this thread some pages ago that the FED should have ripped the bandaid off and done 2 straight full point hikes to start the cycle.  The market would have been in much better shape as a result.  Incompetence has spread far and wide.  

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

33 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. 

[52-80 19378]

I think the difference now is inflation far too high and entrenched too deep for the Fed to waive it off as a temporary effect. 
 

They had painted themselves a door out previously.  But that corridor is now shut. They had already signaled hikes for months. The rates markets have already implied high funding rate. Now they just have to sign on the line. 

[WBT 20884]

40 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

[SimonBolivar 11034]

Look at all these stocks on sale!

[Parliament 14561]

8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. 

I'm joking. 

[SimonBolivar 11034]

3 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

As a younger person who doesn’t really plan on touching his investments for awhile, assuming this is a good time to get some ETFs that track the S&P500 and just wait a decade or two, right?

Always is

[Blotto 23974]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

I said on this thread some pages ago that the FED should have ripped the bandaid off and done 2 straight full point hikes to start the cycle.  The market would have been in much better shape as a result.  Incompetence has spread far and wide.  

 

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I think the difference now is inflation far too high and entrenched too deep for the Fed to waive it off as a temporary effect. 
 

They had painted themselves a door out previously.  But that corridor is now shut. They had already signaled hikes for months. The rates markets have already implied high funding rate. Now they just have to sign on the line. 

Whether they should have jumped a full point or not, they should have at least started raising rates earlier than they did. With all of the conversation there has been for months, its shocking to me that the official fed rate is still .75-1%. Its almost like they were hoping against hope that by some miracle they wouldnt have to raise rates, because they know how much of a mirage the previous "strength" in the economy, and markets were. Now they have no choice, and kicking the can down the road further likely exacerbated the issue. The shitstorm with Russia was a nasty curveball due to its impact on energy prices, but you gotta anticipate some curveballs. 

[Muny_Tex 315]

$PENN now down about 78% since Davey Day Trader reached the mountain top.

That piece of shit ETF ($BUZZ) he was hawking is also down 50% since its inception.

[Blotto 23974]

11 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

$PENN now down about 78% since Davey Day Trader reached the mountain top.

That piece of shit ETF ($BUZZ) he was hawking is also down 50% since its inception.

Hard to see how this one failed, lulz. 

Quote

The BUZZ ETF’s mandate is to track the performance of the 75 large cap US stocks “which exhibit the highest degree of positive investor sentiment and bullish perception based on content aggregated from online sources including social media, news articles, blog posts and other alternative data sets”.

The top 5 holdings in particular are a motley bunch. 

[CooterBrown 18272]

That holdings list is a master class on how to purposely get poor with investing.

[52-80 19378]

lord fucking christ

 

for context, these contracts cost $100 each on margin and today's move alone would've ~tripled the profit of each from previous trading day's close.

 

[52-80 19378]

theres probably been so many blowouts today

[Trey3216 15450]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Hard to see how this one failed, lulz. 

The top 5 holdings in particular are a motley bunch. 

Holey Shit - we should create an ETF that tracks the 10 stonks with the most posts in the stonk thread. What could go wrong?

[Wally Fairway 5664]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

We're gonna rally late and end the day green.

Wish I would have seen this earlier, I would have offered to sell you some calls. All the ones I currently have sold have given up 95% of their premium and I should close them out, so I can reload

[twosheds 378]

My prediction for today:

Dow -3.2%
NASDAQ -4.8%

It’ll be a bloodbath even for these times.

One day late.

Dow -2.79%
NASDAQ -4.68%

[LTtxfan 49911]

7 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

Monday June 13th, 2022

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

[Beantown Express 2.0 6586]

 

This is why I have all my money buried in coffee cans in my back yard.

 

[Wally Fairway 5664]

51 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Monday June 13th, 2022

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[tokamak 6685]

21 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

[JGrayDBU 369]

4 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

So Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Lines have both now plummeted below their 2020 “Covid/World Is Ending/CruisingIsDoneForever” rock bottom levels…and Royal is getting damn close.

Hypothetically, if someone believes these carriers are not going bankrupt (at least not all of them)…what is the harm in buying all 3 if you can afford to wait out a ~12 month correction/stabilization…and then just sell them immediately any time along the way as soon as they pop up 25% or so?

Didn’t we already kinda learn this lesson with Hertz/Cinemark/etc ?

In doing research for a planned cruise I found the info. that Carnival will give the customer that owns 100 shares some extra onboard credit.  Early today CCL was at 9.99, and finished at 9.90.  Almost like having a dividend- invest $1000, get 5% dividend($50) each time you go on a short cruise. Or get 100$ dividend if you go on a 7 day cruise. 

[Trey3216 15450]

Just now, JGrayDBU said:

In doing research for a planned cruise I found the info. that Carnival will give the customer that owns 100 shares some extra onboard credit.  Early today CCL was at 9.99, and finished at 9.90.  Almost like having a dividend- invest $1000, get 5% dividend($50) each time you go on a short cruise. Or get 100$ dividend if you go on a 7 day cruise. 

Just think, after 10 7 day cruises, you’ll have made no money and likely gotten some form of incurable disease.   

[Incredulity 11861]

70 days on a cruise ship….

 

[bullzak 423]

Just saw a Goldman note that they now expect back to back 75 bps raises from Fed. If I recall the Fed hasnt raised 75 bps since 1994. 

I think you can forget about the soft landing scenario. Fed is scared of deflation, but inflation is a battle they know how to fight. It just isnt going to be very much fun. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by bullzak

[Snake Diggity 4698]

I haven’t read a single article, seen a single talking head, or anything else that gives any indication that anyone holds out any hope for the soft landing.  The market has been planning for recession for 2+ months.  That said, I think this recession will different in that I don’t think unemployment will get that high. It’ll be fine.

[52-80 19378]

2 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

 

This is why I have all my money buried in coffee cans in my back yard.

 

Which is also losing 9% value annually

[Trey3216 15450]

41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I haven’t read a single article, seen a single talking head, or anything else that gives any indication that anyone holds out any hope for the soft landing.  The market has been planning for recession for 2+ months.  That said, I think this recession will different in that I don’t think unemployment will get that high. It’ll be fine.

I’m not so certain.  Barring any crazy Black Swan events where the govt decides to inject 1/3 of a year’s GDP into the market which, given velocity of money, basically creates 1.5 years worth of addt’l GDP resulting in a blowoff market top, we’re going to retract to pre-Covid levels of everything.  That means lots of people are gonna be gone 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, JGrayDBU said:

In doing research for a planned cruise I found the info. that Carnival will give the customer that owns 100 shares some extra onboard credit.  Early today CCL was at 9.99, and finished at 9.90.  Almost like having a dividend- invest $1000, get 5% dividend($50) each time you go on a short cruise. Or get 100$ dividend if you go on a 7 day cruise. 

Yep. The issue is that cruise lines 1) took on billions in debt to get through the crisis and 2) issued billions in shares, diluting shareholders. There is fear they will keep doing that, only now any new/rolled over debt is going to be at higher rates.

At the same time, they jumped out of the frying pan (pandemic) into the fryer (still pandemic, plus oil/inflation). Labor costs are better since they hire from foreign nations but food/energy are hitting them.

On the plus side, ships are sailing at higher occupancy and those onboard are spending more as they return to sailing.

They would be fine if Covid would disappear. That seems like it's going to be a weight around their neck for at least the foreseeable future.