Markets still falling like whoa

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

what's the point of a stock that never changes value.  i grabbed a few shares of three random stocks because i want to test a new theory (i call it 'buy low, sell high'.  just came up with that).  so i got the first 3 alphabetical stocks.  one of them is AAC.  it's been around since 3/21 and has a high of 9.96 and a low of 9.67.  right now it is 9.82.  so dumb.  it's just a checking account.

[MAUFRAIS 6,732]

It would be nice to have that kind of security

[tokamak 6,685]

7 minutes ago, MAUFRAIS said:

It would be nice to have that kind of security

[tokamak 6,685]

16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

what's the point of a stock that never changes value.  i grabbed a few shares of three random stocks because i want to test a new theory (i call it 'buy low, sell high'.  just came up with that).  so i got the first 3 alphabetical stocks.  one of them is AAC.  it's been around since 3/21 and has a high of 9.96 and a low of 9.67.  right now it is 9.82.  so dumb.  it's just a checking account.

Looks like AAC is a SPAC just waiting for a deal. It has no actual business operations.

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Looks like AAC is a SPAC just waiting for a deal. It has no actual business operations.

ahhh - the stonkiest of stonks, looks like Behold picked the wrong thread

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,782]

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

[Blotto 23,974]

Food, rent, utilities, and gas arent getting marked down, and thats a good chunk of a lot of peoples expenses. Short term what they cant afford will go on credit cards, but if they arent paying the balance in full, they are just exacerbating the pain. I assume that average credit card APR will trend up with all other interest rates

Quote

To keep up with rising prices, many consumers are leaning on their credit cards.

Credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Although balances fell slightly from where they stood at the end of 2021 following the peak holiday shopping season, they are expected to keep going up from here, according to researchers at the New York Fed. 

“There’s a good chance that Americans’ total credit card balances will soon reach a new record high, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that occurred in 2020 and early 2021,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

 

[Trey3216 15,450]

32 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

Eventually.   But not until after layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures and a host of other things have ripped through.   

[Captainant 28,390]

42 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

Well there is the small matter of $2,162,924,000,000 of idle cash sitting in reverse repo markets that's ballooned since 2021. That's going to take a ton of time to unwind and stymie any effort to combat inflation.

That giant dragon's hoard of luchre isn't going to be given up easily by the banks that hold it, and it DEFINITELY won't be used to help normalize pay either

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

.50
.75
1.00

???

 

[Laxtonto 13,013]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

.50
.75
1.00

???

 

.75 is my guess with 0.75 in July or Aug and maybe even one more around 0.5 in Sept

 

[bullzak 423]

Done at .75

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

Chalk.  So any guesses whether the fed changes course?  I think we’re seeing another solid hike in the next meeting or two.  They will over correct as usual.

[Laxtonto 13,013]

1 minute ago, bullzak said:

Done at .75

Biggest since 94

[bullzak 423]

They have to do at least one more at .75 or they look erratic. Data will probably support that. Then MAYBE they can let off the gas a little. 

[maninblack 7,975]

1 minute ago, bullzak said:

They have to do at least one more at .75 or they look erratic. Data will probably support that. Then MAYBE they can let off the gas a little. 

They have no control over this. 

[bullzak 423]

2 minutes ago, maninblack said:

They have no control over this. 

Youre saying the fed doesnt control interest rates? Hmmm. 

[maninblack 7,975]

Just now, bullzak said:

Youre saying the fed doesnt control interest rates? Hmmm. 

No, I meant they're not going to be able to get this under control with these hikes.

[Laxtonto 13,013]

14 minutes ago, maninblack said:

No, I meant they're not going to be able to get this under control with these hikes.

0.75+0.75+0.5 = 2%.. That ain't going to be enough in my eyes.

In the past when we had these types of inflationary headwinds and full-on stagflation we hit double digits. Here we are looking at topping somewhere in the 3's. I just don't see it.

[Blotto 23,974]

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

[Laxtonto 13,013]

2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

Everyone priced in a .75 rate hike and many hedged that if they came in lower the fed feared the market couldn't withstand the impact of trying to actively tame inflation by raising rates as fast as needed.

 

In truth, I still think this is all algo driven that always pop on correlated news of market and fed expectations amd so they execute their late buy orders and then it tampers down on the after-hours and resets. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

If the patient has cancer, can't we just shoot them so the cancer goes away?

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

Brrrrrrrrt?

[bullzak 423]

20 minutes ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released?

Probably just some hedging getting caught offsides. Going to be a few days before we really know how the market takes this. 

Stock market that is. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by bullzak

[Blotto 23,974]

11 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Brrrrrrrrt?

Most profitable fart ever picked up on a live mic?

[Incredulity 11,861]

51 minutes ago, Blotto said:

profitable

not this year.

[statsman 5,675]

1 hour ago, maninblack said:

They have no control over this. 

Well,…they do. But it’s not like steering an automobile. It’s more like maneuvering a boat with a rudder. It takes a steady hand, lots of patience and constant monitoring with no interference. 
 
(Controlling an economy with Keynesian policies, on the other hand, is more like steering your bumper car from one corner of the rink to the other- yes, you’ll get there, but there will be a whole lot of wasted effort with some incidental damage on the way). 

[Incredulity 11,861]

 

[52-80 19,379]

13 hours ago, maninblack said:

They have no control over this. 

12 hours ago, bullzak said:

Youre saying the fed doesnt control interest rates? Hmmm. 

I might not agree with the magnitude and velocity of their decisions, but their analysis and communication are all correct: theyre still beholden to the mandate of employment level; they dont have a direct lever to all contributors of inflation - the war and supply side clog was both unforesoon and expected to be temporary.  and finally they didnt initiate the deficit spending, they had to absorb it. 

nobody is fixing it overnight, but while the elected leaders are throwing rhetoric around, atleast the fed is being adults about it.

[gsoda3 3,358]

12 hours ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

 

12 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone priced in a .75 rate hike and many hedged that if they came in lower the fed feared the market couldn't withstand the impact of trying to actively tame inflation by raising rates as fast as needed.

 

In truth, I still think this is all algo driven that always pop on correlated news of market and fed expectations amd so they execute their late buy orders and then it tampers down on the after-hours and resets. 

30 mins after every rate decision publication there's a press conference where the chairman gives his remarks and then has a q&a session after.  lasts about an hour. 

[Incredulity 11,861]

Futures down like whoa

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

supply side clog was both unforesoon

Shutting down global economies and the effect on supply issues was unforeseen? 

[Incredulity 11,861]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Shutting down global economies and the effect on supply issues was unforeseen? 

I wonder if the media will track the excess deaths over the next 4 or 5 years with the zeal they did for Covid.

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I wonder if the media will track the excess deaths over the next 4 or 5 years with the zeal they did for Covid.

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

17 hours ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

I'm pretty certain he said "Let's fuck Wally and his same day expiry puts", and he did.

[52-80 19,379]

30 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Shutting down global economies and the effect on supply issues was unforeseen? 

those are externalities to the fed.

they didnt create the virus and doesnt have the scope to control shutdowns.

they could/should have done more, but otoh should not overreach to 'cover' forces largely not of their doing.  powell's environment isn't the same as volcker's environment. 

all said, given we're in the same state, atleast it's not deflectively described's as 'putins inflation' or 'krogers price hike' or whatever the boogeyman du jour is.

Edited June 16, 2022 by 52-80

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

I don't see it that way. The FED is the umpire. They don't control the pitches being thrown, but they can call balls & strikes.

Let's face it, the FED should have stopped QE YEARS ago. They should have warned that shutting down the economy and printing cash would have consequences. Maybe they did and the elected officials in charge ignored them, but here we are. I'm not blaming the FED, I'm blaming the people who control the FED.

[Captainant 28,390]

21 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Let's face it, the FED should have stopped QE YEARS ago. They should have warned that shutting down the economy and printing cash would have consequences. Maybe they did and the elected officials in charge ignored them, but here we are. I'm not blaming the FED, I'm blaming the people who control the FED.

You're telling me that pumping stimulus into the economy by way of massive corporate and ultrawealthy tax cuts, while in a historically hot economy, may not have been the best move? Say it ain't so, basil!

[washparkhorn 9,967]

Markets pricing in inevitably of a recession this morning.
 

Fed: Recession preferred over inflation. 

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Markets pricing in inevitably of a recession this morning.
 

Fed: Recession preferred over inflation. 

footnote (x) - we are already in a recession, it will just take the Fed 6-9 months to recognize it; and another 12 months to react.

[Trey3216 15,450]

Just now, Wally Fairway said:

footnote (x) - we are already in a recession, it will just take the Fed 6-9 months to recognize it; and another 12 months to react.

We'll know officially in about 6 weeks.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You're telling me that pumping stimulus into the economy by way of massive corporate and ultrawealthy tax cuts, while in a historically hot economy, may not have been the best move? Say it ain't so, basil!

Shocking, isn't it. We mess with basic economic principals and then are shocked when things go sideways.

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We'll know officially in about 6 weeks.  

Or sooner if they restate May.

[Trey3216 15,450]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Or sooner if they restate May.

Nahh.   We already know that Q1 was negative.  We'll have the final reading on Q1 next week and we'll get the Q2 first reading the last week of July.  

[Incredulity 11,861]

Dow 30,000

[52-80 19,379]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

Dow 30,000

 

[TonyTexas 10,683]

48 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

footnote (x) - we are already in a recession, it will just take the Fed 6-9 months to recognize it; and another 12 months to react.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out without the typical  unemployment pressures normally associated with recessions. 

[staboner 5,067]

hey look money isn't free anymore. way to go boomers. proud of you we all are

[Wally Fairway 5,664]

1 minute ago, staboner said:

hey look money isn't free anymore. way to go boomers. proud of you we all are

Boomers are mostly retired (except congress has too many boomers still hanging on  - no CR), someday y'all are going to have to find something else to blame for all your troubles.

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Boomers are mostly retired (except congress has too many boomers still hanging on  - no CR), someday y'all are going to have to find something else to blame for all your troubles.

OK boomer.