Markets still falling like whoa

[Muny_Tex 315]

Craziest thing to me is there’s still almost 30% of downside left in the NASDAQ before we reach the Covid bottom.

In other words, I think there’s much more cratering ahead

[Incredulity 11861]

9 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Boomers are mostly retired (except congress has too many boomers still hanging on  - no CR), someday y'all are going to have to find something else to blame for all your troubles.

I would parse "mostly".  1960-1965 births are probably still working.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I would parse "mostly".  1960-1965 births are probably still working.

And, thanks to this shitstorm, they won't be retiring any time soon.

[Laxtonto 13013]

2 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

Craziest thing to me is there’s still almost 30% of downside left in the NASDAQ before we reach the Covid bottom.

In other words, I think there’s much more cratering ahead

I have a bourbon bottle bet with a close friend of mine about the DOW floor being below 26k by EOY23.

 

Got a feeling I need to ask if he wants to double down on that to EOY 22.

 

With rates continuing to rise and the added drain it has on consumer spending, plus the limiting impact you will see this have on stock buybacks, I expect the DOW to jump off the cliff here soon.

The real question is deciding what you consider is the real “floor” and which stocks you consider to be “recession proof”. As we see the inevitable crash and once we see the market stabilize at whatever floor, which sets of stocks will show the same growth we have become accustomed to coming out of the crash.

It might be time to begin considering an entirely new investment strategy knowing that the 0% rates will probably not return in our lifetime and we need to adjust accordingly.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I would parse "mostly".  1960-1965 births are probably still working.

true, but that is a narrow slice of what is broad called boomers (born 1946-1964). FWIW I am outside of your dates, but plan on working for another 8-10 years, so I can afford to keep losing money in the market, and in stonk losses

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

true, but that is a narrow slice of what is broad called boomers (born 1946-1964). FWIW I am outside of your dates, but plan on working for another 8-10 years, so I can afford to keep losing money in the market, and in stonk losses

Hello fellow Gen-X slacker.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

That's ok.  I didn't plan on retiring anyway.  Leisure time is for losers.  I'm working until 85.  IN JPOW I TRUST!

[Wally Fairway 5664]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Hello fellow Gen-X slacker.

Nope - I'm older than the slice that Incredulity listed, I am more solidly a boomer, now get off my lawn

[Incredulity 11861]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

Nope - I'm older than the slice that Incredulity listed, I am more solidly a boomer, now get off my lawn

Brat’s grandson?

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Nope - I'm older than the slice that Incredulity listed, I am more solidly a boomer, now get off my lawn*

*Fairway

[tbone_ 14411]

Always amazed me the boomers weren’t raising all kinds of hell at the low interest rate policies stealing their low risk retirement income.

But then maybe nothing should surprise anyone anymore.

[StruggleBus 3922]

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

They were.

They were met with "OK Boomer".

[Laxtonto 13013]

Just now, tbone_ said:

Always amazed me the boomers weren’t raising all kinds of hell at the low interest rate policies stealing their low risk retirement income.

But then maybe nothing should surprise anyone anymore.

Everyone, boomers included, got captivated by the siren song of a permabull no ceiling in site market that always went up and so it replaced assets like bonds as a low risk option. There was no risk in that strategy at the time, until all the sudden there is.

 

Greed eventually makes fools of us all..

 

 

[Blotto 23974]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

I have a bourbon bottle bet with a close friend of mine about the DOW floor being below 26k by EOY23.

 

Got a feeling I need to ask if he wants to double down on that to EOY 22.

 

With rates continuing to rise and the added drain it has on consumer spending, plus the limiting impact you will see this have on stock buybacks, I expect the DOW to jump off the cliff here soon.

The real question is deciding what you consider is the real “floor” and which stocks you consider to be “recession proof”. As we see the inevitable crash and once we see the market stabilize at whatever floor, which sets of stocks will show the same growth we have become accustomed to coming out of the crash.

It might be time to begin considering an entirely new investment strategy knowing that the 0% rates will probably not return in our lifetime and we need to adjust accordingly.

I won't be surprised to see it again, within a few years possibly. The economic picture wouldn't be particularly rosy for it to happen, but it wouldnt shock me. 

speculative investing will probably be out of favor for a short while, but with as fast as technology evolves, there will always be new shiny technologies with the POTENTIAL for 10X, 100X gains that people wont be able to resist. the dot com crash was just more than 20 years ago, but there were no lessons learned and people were piling heaps of money into massively overvalued stocks because its was different this time. We're greedy by nature, and it will all happen again. The market will reset/stabilize at somepoint,  everyone will lick their wounds, and the cycle will start anew. 

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

9 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I won't be surprised to see it again, within a few years possibly. The economic picture wouldn't be particularly rosy for it to happen, but it wouldnt shock me. 

speculative investing will probably be out of favor for a short while, but with as fast as technology evolves, there will always be new shiny technologies with the POTENTIAL for 10X, 100X gains that people wont be able to resist. the dot com crash was just more than 20 years ago, but there were no lessons learned and people were piling heaps of money into massively overvalued stocks because its was different this time. We're greedy by nature, and it will all happen again. The market will reset/stabilize at somepoint,  everyone will lick their wounds, and the cycle will start anew. 

Agree with everything except the bold part.  We did learn lessons.  As usual, many people chose to ignore them this time around.  There will always be people looking for shortcuts, the quick bucks.  And as usual, Joe Q and his/her/they family pays the price. 

 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

Dollar General DG and Walmart WMT are up today.  The dollar stores are fantastic to buy right now. Kroger holding strong despite some down propaganda today.   

[LTtxfan 49911]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

I have a bourbon bottle bet with a close friend of mine about the DOW floor being below 26k by EOY23.  Got a feeling I need to ask if he wants to double down on that to EOY 22.

 

Guess you and your buddy are a couple of...

[Snake Diggity 4698]

45 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

They were.

They were met with "OK Boomer".

Bullshit.  The boomers led the fucking charge.  They wanted cheap money more than anyone.  Still do.

[Blotto 23974]

18 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Dollar General DG and Walmart WMT are up today.  The dollar stores are fantastic to buy right now. Kroger holding strong despite some down propaganda today.   

Other than SPY puts and a other short term options, the only stock I purchased in the last few months was WMT. I made my first buy about a month ago at just over $120 with the plan being to scale in at 20% increments for 5 months. Bought my second tranche this morning for just under $120. So I havent made much, but with the indexes down another 10%+ in that period, I'll take that as a small victory. In recessionary times the stocks you listed tend to do well. I'm riding WMT. 

[tbone_ 14411]

Bullshit.  The boomers led the fucking charge.  They wanted cheap money more than anyone.  Still do.

I think the lack of understanding of monetary policy and financial risk is prominent across all generations. Most people just want whatever feels good.

[Hefeweizen 5416]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

They were.

They were met with "OK Boomer".

You mean the boomers who have been implementing these policies?  Ok boomer.

[Laxtonto 13013]

46 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Guess you and your buddy are a couple of...

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

I like where this thread is going.

[Hefeweizen 5416]

Sex, booze, and drugs.  It’s definitely trending that way right now.

 

I am doing anything not to look at my fidelity account.  No sir, I’m not looking at that for a few months.

[bluto 4980]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Boomers are mostly retired (except congress has too many boomers still hanging on  - no CR), someday y'all are going to have to find something else to blame for all your troubles.

We’ll see how long they can stay retired withdrawing on their 401k that fell off a cliff while their COL sky rockets. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

13 minutes ago, bluto said:

We’ll see how long they can stay retired withdrawing on their 401k that fell off a cliff while their COL sky rockets. 

Bingo. Imagine you own a company that can't find employees? Start targeting retirees and use flex time to meet their needs. 

[Laxtonto 13013]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bingo. Imagine you own a company that can't find employees? Start targeting retirees and use flex time to meet their needs. 

Provide enough to meet the inflation jump and the changes in healthcare cost and enough flexible work options to use the part time boomer to their advantage. Use them as mid level problem solvers and mentoring for a younger workforce to help alleviatie soem the of tech drawbacks while continue the classic knowledge capture/transfer that most comapanies did a poor job as we saw the boomer large scale drawdown during COVID.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

Provide enough to meet the inflation jump and the changes in healthcare cost and enough flexible work options to use the part time boomer to their advantage. Use them as mid level problem solvers and mentoring for a younger workforce to help alleviatie soem the of tech drawbacks while continue the classic knowledge capture/transfer that most comapanies did a poor job as we saw the boomer large scale drawdown during COVID.

100%. This is how you ease someone out of the workforce. Unfortunately, companies are either all in or all out. You only want to work 25 hours per week? RETIRE OLD MAN.

I'm betting with their knowledge, you'd get more productivity out of 25 hours with them then 40 hours of newer hires.

[bullzak 423]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

speculative investing will probably be out of favor for a short while, but with as fast as technology evolves, there will always be new shiny technologies with the POTENTIAL for 10X, 100X gains that people wont be able to resist. the dot com crash was just more than 20 years ago, but there were no lessons learned and people were piling heaps of money into massively overvalued stocks because its was different this time. We're greedy by nature, and it will all happen again. The market will reset/stabilize at somepoint,  everyone will lick their wounds, and the cycle will start anew. 

Been at this for a while and I never thought I would hear all the hot air I heard in the late 90s before the Dot Com bust. Yet there was Cathie Wood and her ilk telling me valuation doesnt matter blah blah blah. Dont even get me started on crypto, NFT, all that bullshit. I dont know if a sucker is born every minute but there is one born about every 25 years at least. 

Had a real estate guy tell me in about 1985 while Texas was grinding through a really bad time that a "recession is when the money goes back to its rightful owners." Looks like we are seeing a bit of that although we have a LOOONG way to go before you are in 2000 or 2009 times. 

I dont think it gets that bad but OTOH analysts are still calling for SPX earnings of +9%. Yeah, no. 

[Blotto 23974]

just last week Wood was still crowing about how ZM would be at $1500 by 2026. that implies a 15X return over the next 3-4 years for a company that hit it huge in the pandemic, and hasn't grown for shit in the last year. Good luck with that. 

She got so high off her own farts in the tech run up, she still hasnt come down. 

 

[Wally Fairway 5664]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Bullshit.  The boomers led the fucking charge.  They wanted cheap money more than anyone.  Still do.

Yeah all those fucking retired boomers and their goddamned Robinhood accounts with that WallStreetBets diamondhands gang really fucked up the market. Fuck those guys

[bluto 4980]

9 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah all those fucking retired boomers and their goddamned Robinhood accounts with that WallStreetBets diamondhands gang really fucked up the market. Fuck those guys

So you’re saying wsb idiots with their $1500 stimmie checks is what caused the overheated market? Wanting some clarity. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Hey kids, there's no such thing as a free lunch. Economic forces can be bent, but the whiplash is a motherfucker.

[Hefeweizen 5416]

6 minutes ago, bluto said:

So you’re saying wsb idiots with their $1500 stimmie checks is what caused the overheated market? Wanting some clarity. 

Yes 100 percent of this is GameStop AMC and crypto bros.  That is the entire market.

[Trey3216 15450]

59 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

100%. This is how you ease someone out of the workforce. Unfortunately, companies are either all in or all out. You only want to work 25 hours per week? RETIRE OLD MAN.

I'm betting with their knowledge, you'd get more productivity out of 25 hours with them then 40 hours of newer hires.

Yep.  Happened to my Dad with Raytheon.  Then they had to call him to come in and for the 7000th time, show the younger engineers how to step by step not make a particular circuit board for a very particularly expensive piece of military machinery to not fail.  Then they wouldn't rehire him when they needed to come back for the the 7001st time.  

 

He got a part time job working at a company that builds radar systems for other purposes, worked there for 6 months, and they just made him a full-time employee w/benefits and only has to work about 3.5 days/week...because he knows how to get shit done correctly.   He's basically working to keep himself occupied and keep his mind sharp, and making about $90k doing it.  

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

30 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Yes 100 percent of this is GameStop AMC and crypto bros.  That is the entire market.

Turns out the moon was farther than everyone thought.

[Laxtonto 13013]

32 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Hey kids, there's no such thing as a free lunch. Economic forces can be bent, but the whiplash is a motherfucker.

I have always loved the view of the economy and the markets as a raging river and we are on a boat just trying to survive it. The problem to me is that we spent so many years trying to control the market's natural ebbs and flows that every one of those over-corrections just magnified the scale of the inevitable crash.

We can argue why these moves were made (politically, socially, and even for national security reasons), but in the end, the hand on the tiller went from being a gentle nudge from time to time to having to old on every second with both hands. At some point you have to let go and use those hands for something else or the strength of the current is too strong for your two hands to actually steer the course., and you inevitably, boat the crash.

We have now entered the realm of knowing the boat is most likely going to crash and now do we take both hands off the tiller and use our hands to get a life jacket on or do we dig in and use all of our strength to still try to manhandle the tiller to hope to steer the crash to something less severe or do we try to do both at once, or do we do something else like jump out of the boat completely?

Time will tell which choice is the best alternative, but I am expecting a full-on crash and now trying to decide if the boat is going to capsize when we crash and I may drown and so does it make more sense to throw on a life jacket and abandon ship now, knowing that the sharks called inflation are out there in the river constantly taking small bites out of me or do I hold on and hope we only bounce of the rocks and only scuff up the ship and not capsize and drown my investment portfolio.

 

[Trey3216 15450]

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I have always loved the view of the economy and the markets as a raging river and we are on a boat just trying to survive it. The problem to me is that we spent so many years trying to control the market's natural ebbs and flows that every one of those over-corrections just magnified the scale of the inevitable crash.

We can argue why these moves were made (politically, socially, and even for national security reasons), but in the end, the hand on the tiller went from being a gentle nudge from time to time to having to old on every second with both hands. At some point you have to let go and use those hands for something else or the strength of the current is too strong for your two hands to actually steer the course., and you inevitably, boat the crash.

We have now entered the realm of knowing the boat is most likely going to crash and now do we take both hands off the tiller and use our hands to get a life jacket on or do we dig in and use all of our strength to still try to manhandle the tiller to hope to steer the crash to something less severe or do we try to do both at once, or do we do something else like jump out of the boat completely?

Time will tell which choice is the best alternative, but I am expecting a full-on crash and now trying to decide if the boat is going to capsize when we crash and I may drown and so does it make more sense to throw on a life jacket and abandon ship now, knowing that the sharks called inflation are out there in the river constantly taking small bites out of me or do I hold on and hope we only bounce of the rocks and only scuff up the ship and not capsize and drown my investment portfolio.

 

I think we use both hands to stand up in the boat, walk to the front like George Fucking Washington, and then use 1 hand to hold our sabre pointed forward.  

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

You sure do have a purdy mouth.

[Johnny Chimpo 489]

5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I have always loved the view of the economy and the markets as a raging river and we are on a boat just trying to survive it. The problem to me is that we spent so many years trying to control the market's natural ebbs and flows that every one of those over-corrections just magnified the scale of the inevitable crash.

We can argue why these moves were made (politically, socially, and even for national security reasons), but in the end, the hand on the tiller went from being a gentle nudge from time to time to having to old on every second with both hands. At some point you have to let go and use those hands for something else or the strength of the current is too strong for your two hands to actually steer the course., and you inevitably, boat the crash.

We have now entered the realm of knowing the boat is most likely going to crash and now do we take both hands off the tiller and use our hands to get a life jacket on or do we dig in and use all of our strength to still try to manhandle the tiller to hope to steer the crash to something less severe or do we try to do both at once, or do we do something else like jump out of the boat completely?

Time will tell which choice is the best alternative, but I am expecting a full-on crash and now trying to decide if the boat is going to capsize when we crash and I may drown and so does it make more sense to throw on a life jacket and abandon ship now, knowing that the sharks called inflation are out there in the river constantly taking small bites out of me or do I hold on and hope we only bounce of the rocks and only scuff up the ship and not capsize and drown my investment portfolio.

 

You need to come to an understanding of the geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop of the situation. This metaphor reads a little defeatist to me. 

It’s high time western countries stopped hollowing out manufacturing, resource extraction, and energy production and depending on unfriendly nations to perform those functions for us. 
 

We will have to pay more for the privilege of increasing our manufacturing / commodity base. We also need to increase our global shipping fleet and stop depending on the Chinese companies like COSCO and China shipping for those functions. 
 

The inflationary impact of the global response to Covid aside, I believe the above reasons are why inflation will not moderate in the near term. Additionally, the global deflationary force that was China manufacturing from the 80s to now will not likely recur. Their workforce has progressed to the point of requiring higher pay to remain competitive. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

It’s high time western countries stopped hollowing out manufacturing, resource extraction, and energy production and depending on unfriendly nations to perform those functions for us. 

I want to subscribe to your newsletter.

100% support this. Imagine celebrating that we have cut back our Carbon Footprint by outsourcing our manufacturing to China. Smoke and mirrors.

[Johnny Chimpo 489]

Yea, I would make a joke but after a certain the humor is just lacking. 

[Captainant 28390]

17 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

It’s high time western countries stopped hollowing out manufacturing, resource extraction, and energy production and depending on unfriendly nations to perform those functions for us. 

bruh how else are we gonna get them shareholders a .002% increase in profits this quarter?? 

17 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

We will have to pay more for the privilege of increasing our manufacturing / commodity base. We also need to increase our global shipping fleet and stop depending on the Chinese companies like COSCO and China shipping for those functions. 

WE shouldn't have to pay more - there's over two trillion fucking dollars just sitting around floating like a turd in the top of the banking system. That money should be getting used to do shit, but instead it's getting traded between large private institutional investors to get half a percentage point of interest.

There's plenty of money in the system already, it's just been warped to concentrate to the top and stay there forever.

[Johnny Chimpo 489]

I’m not sure I follow? I see your point about the money being available, but we should also consider that this is a capitalist society we live in. Shareholders demand returns. The government should set some clear priorities aided by either tariffs, subsidies, or clear policy that doesn’t flip flop when the person and party in charge changes. 
 

Uncertainty is the enemy of long term business investments.
 

I am doing my best to keep this non political    

[tbone_ 14411]

There's plenty of money in the system already, it's just been warped to concentrate to the top and stay there forever.

That’s how our system works though. It concentrates capital in the hands of the very few.

Edit: and that’s not a political statement, it’s just a reality.

[Captainant 28390]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I’m not sure I follow? I see your point about the money being available, but we should also consider that this is a capitalist society we live in. Shareholders demand returns. The government should set some clear priorities aided by either tariffs, subsidies, or clear policy that doesn’t flip flop when the person and party in charge changes. 
 

Uncertainty is the enemy of long term business investments.
 

I am doing my best to keep this non political    

My quip on profits is that our version of corporate capitalism favors short term profits over long-term profits and stability. There's no appetite for a large capital expenditure to invest in the business and fuck up their debt ratios - they'll just find a _____ as a service company to do it for them hooray! Or they'll offshore their whatever team because they can get a cheaper price, even after paying all the bribes and sacrificing the IP to theft. Who gives a damn if that moves the business out of the driver's seat - the board and executives won't be around to suffer the consequences!

Shareholders demand returns, but businesses are typically more concerned with satisfying those shareholders who want reward without risk or cost, than they are the customers who make their business viable. The government largely has set clear priorities and followed through on commitments - last administration aside - and it's their follow-through on those commitments that got us into this mess lol.

The divergence of median income to top percentile income started with reaganomics and the lie of trickle down. Our current brand of "fucked" is the coked up, inbred offspring of trickle down.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

36 minutes ago, Captainant said:

There's plenty of money in the system already, it's just been warped to concentrate to the top and stay there forever.

How else will our billionaires have rocket ships you fucking commie.

[Incredulity 11861]

 

[52-80 19379]

16 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone, boomers included, got captivated by the siren song of a permabull no ceiling in site market that always went up and so it replaced assets like bonds as a low risk option.

US govt bonds weren't yielding shit tho