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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11,862

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Pretty sure you posted the Aggy football rollercoaster there.  

In March of 2020 I bought a Dec 2022 S&P500 put with a 2200 strike price.  It's worth $0.67 cents now.  (I paid more than that for it.)  So if the market could fall far enough below 2200 that I could get my money back, that'd be great.

What was your thinking?  Legitimately interested, not being a surly wiseass.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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52-80

52-80 19,374

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

I'm perpetually in a state of "Wow, am I smart."

 

Do what Wally does, lose 50%? "Wow, am I smart."

Don't do what Wally does, lose 50%? "Wow, am I smart."

good news is, mathematically, you can just keep losing 50% infinitely until it hits some technical minimum tick requirement by the brokerage

image.thumb.png.63ebb738066cf1d3295318408670393e.png

 

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Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

We gotta be close to the bottom, no? I've still got 3+ years until retirement so not in a major panic, but the concern level is higher than it has been for a while. I'm trusting our financial planner. 

Just came here to prognosticate. This is starting to feel panicky. Could be another leg down, but this is the sort of thing that shakes people out (down a ton already, then a huge reversal) and gets us to stabilize.

My only concern isn't inflation but will rates start to be high enough that dollars find other places to invest. Why deal with the stock market if I can make 4-5% on a CD/Treasury with no risk?

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 13,013

Posted
Posted (edited)

Going to get interesting if this thing breaks 29k, because it is a emotional line that shouldn’t mean anything to the alogs, but may be a proverbial “red line” for individuals. Enough people start to reflex sell and it could trigger a secondary volume sell off by the alogs.

 

Is 28 going to be the true floor in this? Worst case is what, 26? I am curious what everyone else is thinking.

Edited by Laxtonto
Amazing we all 3 came and posted about the same topic back to back to back
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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2,731

Posted
Posted

Anecdotally, I've had 3 separate individuals ask me recently if they should go to all cash.  Usually a good sign when novice investors are concerned and want to sell everything.  Equity returns are almost perfectly inversely correlated to retail fund flows.  Bullishness in equity markets are 100% dependent on the Fed stopping or at least slowing rate increases.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 13,013

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I don’t have the time right now to chase it, but I would love to see what was bought between 1:55 and 2:45 when the market crossed the 29k line and then spiked almost 200 points. Was it the standard ebb and flow or was it a specific bundle that was bought in high volume due to an alog having hit their floor buy line for a particular bundle or sentiment…

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,450

Posted
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7 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Going to get interesting if this thing breaks 29k, because it is a emotional line that shouldn’t mean anything to the alogs, but may be a proverbial “red line” for individuals. Enough people start to reflex sell and it could trigger a secondary volume sell off by the alogs.

 

Is 28 going to be the true floor in this? Worst case is what, 26? I am curious what everyone else is thinking.

You need to be paying more attention to S&P than Dow.  The Dow is a terrible average.   I’m looking at S&P 3200 as a hopeful bottom, otherwise it’s S&P 2800 and 2400 as charts and fibs talk as levels of 3200 doesn’t work.   Q4 is gonna be brutal.  I don’t think we’re done here and Oct/Nov are gonna suck.  We could see a Santa Rally at year end, so taking some losses now and waiting the 30 day wash sale rule should be a strategy that folks look at.   

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52-80

52-80 19,374

Posted
Posted

EU says to be on your tiptoes

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/warnings/esrb.warning220929_on_vulnerabilities_union_financial_system~6ae5572939.en.pdf

the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has identified a number
of severe risks to financial stability. These risks may materialise simultaneously, thereby interacting with
each other and mutually amplifying their impact.

Given the increase in systemic risks to financial stability, the ESRB considers it necessary for private
sector institutions, market participants and relevant authorities to continue to prepare for materialisation
of tail-risk scenarios.

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,664

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

EU says to be on your tiptoes

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/warnings/esrb.warning220929_on_vulnerabilities_union_financial_system~6ae5572939.en.pdf

the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has identified a number
of severe risks to financial stability. These risks may materialise simultaneously, thereby interacting with
each other and mutually amplifying their impact.

Given the increase in systemic risks to financial stability, the ESRB considers it necessary for private
sector institutions, market participants and relevant authorities to continue to prepare for materialisation
of tail-risk scenarios.

Interesting to know - and it reminds me of a conversation I had with my brother sometime in the last week, talking about our Mom's finances and the expectation of how long the market decline could last. He says 3-5 years before we see it return to January levels (but he is a HS teacher, so what does he really know. Right?) and my answer is 1 - 3 years (with us already being 9 months into the first year of shit), but that you have to take into account the things that can have a longer impact, like expansion of the European (Ukrainian) War, a collapse of Russia gov't/economy, and of course the next Black Swan event. And of course the biggest problem with black swan events is that you never know when they might hit, or what they will affect. 
I feel like the current economic shitstorm is primarily driven by global monetary easing (led by JPow and his printing machine), supply chain issues - both of which we really knew were coming but it was a fun ride up to the top of the roller coaster; along with things we didn't really see coming like another Putin invasion,  Iranian protests, rising volcanic/earthquake activity, and Kansas football becoming a juggernaut.

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52-80

52-80 19,374

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Interesting to know - and it reminds me of a conversation I had with my brother sometime in the last week, talking about our Mom's finances and the expectation of how long the market decline could last. He says 3-5 years before we see it return to January levels (but he is a HS teacher, so what does he really know. Right?) and my answer is 1 - 3 years (with us already being 9 months into the first year of shit), but that you have to take into account the things that can have a longer impact, like expansion of the European (Ukrainian) War, a collapse of Russia gov't/economy, and of course the next Black Swan event. And of course the biggest problem with black swan events is that you never know when they might hit, or what they will affect. 
I feel like the current economic shitstorm is primarily driven by global monetary easing (led by JPow and his printing machine), supply chain issues - both of which we really knew were coming but it was a fun ride up to the top of the roller coaster; along with things we didn't really see coming like another Putin invasion,  Iranian protests, rising volcanic/earthquake activity, and Kansas football becoming a juggernaut.

this all started when nick saban made his deal with the devil

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,664

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

this all started when nick saban made his deal with the devil

Where I am from that was 1999, when he jumped on a plane to the bayou from East Lansing before the bowl game; and earned the title Nick $aban. I give the LSU a lot of credit, because Satan's son Nick had only had one good season here and was basically had a .500 record his first 4 years. Sadly the MSU AD had no clue and the following 2 coaches were a shitshow. It isn't that big a problem for me because in the 15+ years I lived in Houston, UT became my team away from home.....wait, that has become a problem. 
Life sucks, football sucks, the market sucks. I should go buy some options to make myself feel better....or was that sell some options, fuck I can never get that right.

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Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Interesting to know - and it reminds me of a conversation I had with my brother sometime in the last week, talking about our Mom's finances and the expectation of how long the market decline could last. He says 3-5 years before we see it return to January levels (but he is a HS teacher, so what does he really know. Right?) and my answer is 1 - 3 years (with us already being 9 months into the first year of shit), but that you have to take into account the things that can have a longer impact, like expansion of the European (Ukrainian) War, a collapse of Russia gov't/economy, and of course the next Black Swan event. And of course the biggest problem with black swan events is that you never know when they might hit, or what they will affect. 
I feel like the current economic shitstorm is primarily driven by global monetary easing (led by JPow and his printing machine), supply chain issues - both of which we really knew were coming but it was a fun ride up to the top of the roller coaster; along with things we didn't really see coming like another Putin invasion,  Iranian protests, rising volcanic/earthquake activity, and Kansas football becoming a juggernaut.

If anyone could have predicted even 10% of what's gone on in the past decade then I'd think trying to predict the market would be a worthy goal. But no one has any clue.

All I know is that we like to buy shit and we like to make more money. Until everyone owns a swimming pool, there's still room to grow.

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