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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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troph

troph 25089

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I don't believe that we are out of the market struggles, and it is taking all my self control to not buy some early 2023 SPY puts
Best Self Discipline GIFs | Gfycat

assuming a recession, you're probably right.  20-25% decline is about the minimum according to this historical accounting of bear markets and especially those that are coupled with a recession.

there are a lot of 30-35% declines in that list even when you discard the 50%+ ones.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4483348-bear-market-history?gclid=CjwKCAjws--ZBhAXEiwAv-RNL3aBSN8Brg89fCtrOyA5BtmEEiXWVLoXPROmpoX54LE91HbjqLIfNxoCUcUQAvD_BwE&internal_promotion=true&utm_campaign=14049528666&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_term=130929515691^aud-1457157703119%3Adsa-402690192841^^535988761156^^^g

Edited by troph
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19407

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, troph said:

assuming a recession, you're probably right.  20-25% decline is about the minimum according to this historical accounting of bear markets and especially those that are coupled with a recession.

there are a lot of 30-35% declines in that list even when you discard the 50%+ ones.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4483348-bear-market-history?gclid=CjwKCAjws--ZBhAXEiwAv-RNL3aBSN8Brg89fCtrOyA5BtmEEiXWVLoXPROmpoX54LE91HbjqLIfNxoCUcUQAvD_BwE&internal_promotion=true&utm_campaign=14049528666&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_term=130929515691^aud-1457157703119%3Adsa-402690192841^^535988761156^^^g

S&P is already down roughly 20% and the Nasdaq is down 30% from the highs.  Sure they can both go lower, but there is probably more upside than downside at this point provided you don't need the cash for a year or two.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

S&P is already down roughly 20% and the Nasdaq is down 30% from the highs.  Sure they can both go lower, but there is probably more upside than downside at this point provided you don't need the cash for a year or two.

And that, kids, is why Santa isn't coming this year, or next year.

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MoJames

MoJames 8258

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Because substance is exactly what I was going for.  You new here?

Oh it's fairly obvious that at no point in your posting attempts are you going for substance. There is a bit of nuance to being an asshole though. You might get it one day.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Market up 3% and people want to find something to pick fights about. 

I will say that seeing 3% swings up is nice, but makes me know we aren't out of this. "Healthy" markets don't rise/fall 3% in a day.

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52-80

52-80 19379

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Market up 3% and people want to find something to pick fights about. 

I will say that seeing 3% swings up is nice, but makes me know we aren't out of this. "Healthy" markets don't rise/fall 3% in a day.

3% down followed by 3% up puts you at -0.09% net 😬

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

You still don’t know what this means?

He doesn’t know what anything that doesn’t fit in a gif means.

 

 Seriously, even the gifs seem like a bad AI is picking.

 

 Just ignore and move on, life is too short for low quality trolls.  I don’t agree with lots of people on here but vapid is not worth it.

Edited by Hefeweizen
Please don’t quote him. That’s actually the worst thing about surly, because it spoils the satisfaction of ignoring someone.
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5360

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So we're down 2% because job numbers were good, which means the Fed will continue raising rates driving us to recession... yet oil is up to $90 per barrel. 

Which is it? 

Job market is too good, which means the economy is bad, which means that the FED has to hike rates and punish the markets until enough people lose their jobs to make the economy good again. 

I think that's it, right?

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So we're down 2% because job numbers were good, which means the Fed will continue raising rates driving us to recession... yet oil is up to $90 per barrel. 

Which is it? 

I've seen estimates that up to 75% of the market volume these days are just automated algorithmic trades. Who the fuck knows what those propeller heads that build these models are keyed in on, but these large 2% swings aren't because a bunch of retail traders are carefully parsing economic data and trading accordingly. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9967

Posted
Posted

Oil is an artificial cartel-controlled market with monopoly power. The oil market is not a free market. Quaint free market notions of price competition do not apply. Invest accordingly. 
 

The Fed is looking for demand destruction via unemployment. The Fed hopes more unemployment will increase the supply of available workers, which will force workers to accept lower wages (price competition). The Fed expects lower wages and increased unemployment will suppress demand.
 

The Fed desperately wants markets to believe there is no Fed backstop (the “Fed Put”) for financial markets this time. The question of whether the Fed Put (brrrt) still exists remains an open question. 
 

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