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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Apparently there’s a reason none of us are highly compensated market analysts.  Fucking insanity.

Been talking to a buddy who's a big hedge fund trader and he is absolutely flummoxed by the action right now.  Said there is 100% no reason for the markets to be up unless there's chatter running around that Russia is going to quit.  

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11861

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Been talking to a buddy who's a big hedge fund trader and he is absolutely flummoxed by the action right now.  Said there is 100% no reason for the markets to be up unless there's chatter running around that Russia is going to quit.  

ask him how the VIX is off 5% today.

 

WeA_e4hv3svIqH8pJIfrX3VRluNlc59xV_TG_A0x

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Total Gape

Every time you get high on your supply at wallstreetbets, you come in here swinging thinking you know dick all about markets and the economy, and to prepare our anus. And like clockwork, the market mushroom stamps a Brazzers sign on your forehead and leaves you walking funny.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Every time you get high on your supply at wallstreetbets, you come in here swinging thinking you know dick all about markets and the economy, and to prepare our anus. And like clockwork, the market mushroom stamps a Brazzers sign on your forehead and leaves you walking funny.

To be fair, the market is making no sense at all right now.  The FED isn't going to not raise rates.  The BoE is having to fight a liquidity crisis right now that could spread to global markets.  Commodity prices are wrecking other currencies which is strengthening the dollar, which will only exacerbate the pain of the coming (already here) recession.  Home prices are peaking.  Mortgage apps are cratering.  Construction financing is next to impossible to find.  A train workers strike is looming.  

 

Market up 900!!!!  Yeah, shit is beyond normal. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11861

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Every time you get high on your supply at wallstreetbets, you come in here swinging thinking you know dick all about markets and the economy, and to prepare our anus. And like clockwork, the market mushroom stamps a Brazzers sign on your forehead and leaves you walking funny.

^still buying “dips”

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

^still buying “dips”

I wish I had the balls to buy more SPY puts, because today was crazy and puts and shorts were on sale, but somehow if I did pull the trigger and leverage up (or is it down) then somehow SPY would somehow drop and at the same time my puts would drop.

So glad I have BRK.B 1/19/2024 calls, that got closer to the money today, not there yet but I have 14 months of a slow death if Uncle Warren and his crazy sidekick can't get some more traction.

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2331

Posted
Posted

I have been reading about the 73-74 bear market and so far this market is following it pretty close. If it continues this will be the last bounce up to around the 200 day moving average... Actually higher if you follow it exactly and then the recession hits early next year and we reach new lows. It's pretty uncanny actually. And really today makes sense because this was going to be the last worst news in terms of year over year inflation being around 8%. Nov reading in 2021 is when inflation went off the rails. Add in that we traditionally have a Santa rally and yea my bet would be we go to spy 415-430 over the next 2 months then either we get a recession and drop to spy 300ish or we don't have a recession and then who the fuck knows where we go. I'm really curious to see if my 9 months of following the market closely has taught me anything. 

 

And yes I put my money where my mouth is and got in a decent chunk of cash at around spy 355. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9968

Posted
Posted

USD remains the preeminent safe haven. 

British attempts to resurrect the voodoo economics of Maggie and Ronnie were aborted quickly with the ouster of the Kwarteng. 

As for the almighty Fed - remember PCE is their more trusted data source - not CPI.

Volatility is the name of the game. Technicals trigger tumult in the markets. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
Posted

Sometime over the past 3 years, I decided I wasn't smart enough to outthink the market and to just play the momentum and enjoy the ride. This was a great strategy from late 2020 through 2021, and really in 2022 as I was okay keeping core holdings invested and only playing on the fringes. 
But damn, I cannot for my life, figure out what the hell is going on in the market. The Fed hasn't backed off their rate rising, inflation hasn't slowed (although by Nov/Dec the YoY will look better, and core economic problems still exist (supply chain, finding employees, oh yeah and that border skirmish in Ukraine is still a thing) - and I am more cautious about jumping back into this market than I've been since the start of the pandemic.

 

tl:dr - what the fuck is going on here

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19408

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Commodity prices are wrecking other currencies which is strengthening the dollar, which will only exacerbate the pain of the coming (already here) recession.  Home prices are peaking.  Mortgage apps are cratering.  Construction financing is next to impossible to find.  A train workers strike is looming.  

All that shit's been getting priced in over the last six months.  Markets are forward looking and I guess they believe things will have at least started to turn the corner six months from now.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

AI and the Algorithms is the name of my new band, and we are playing the market with our new hit single "Celebrate - inflation ain't up 10.2%"

Next week we release "Breakneck whiplash - shits falling faster than you react"

Apparently someone relesased Breakneck whiplash earlier than expected

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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58 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

All that shit's been getting priced in over the last six months.  Markets are forward looking and I guess they believe things will have at least started to turn the corner six months from now.

Of course it is, but I also think the market is being naieve about the problems that we are facing.  We're a marginal black swan event from having an extreme liquidity crisis, and that that black swan event could be more like a frog in the boiling pot type this go round.  I think we're going to have an incredible wave of foreclosures again due to inflationary pressures coupled with massive increases in property taxes.  Budgets are already getting hit for 20+% increases in basic necessities and then you pile on prop tax increases and other issues, and we're talking about the average family having to find an extra $1000-1500/mo just to scrape by.  

 

It's going to hit a head at some point, and it's going to be ugly.  I think the market is looking past a lot of it.  

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19408

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

ok GIF by Shock Top

I don't understand why you find it so unlikely.  I guess some of us are more interested in executing a well thought out investment strategy while others are more interested in trying to win internet points by posting stupid gifs / memes.

I'll do me, you keep doing you. Don't worry, there will be another top for you to buy sometime in the future since you are going sit around with your thumb up your ass and watch great investment opportunities fade away.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11861

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I don't understand why you find it so unlikely.  I guess some of us are more interested in executing a well thought out investment strategy while others are more interested in trying to win internet points by posting stupid gifs / memes.

I'll do me, you keep doing you. Don't worry, there will be another top for you to buy sometime in the future since you are going sit around with your thumb up your ass and watch great investment opportunities fade away.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRk_rCgpKVAcAeW1bN6352

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