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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

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bullzak

bullzak 423

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

I was a young punk so thankfully didn't have any money to lose but imagine that now in our nonstop media world. The 2008 crash was bad enough but at least that was slow motion relatively. 

 

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Parliament

Parliament 14559

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

35 years ago today - Black Monday a true market meltdown, it was the end of the financial system if the SEC, Fed and others didn't step up and make changes. Everyone knows that the markets fell over 500 points or 20%, but it was the commodity/futures markets that almost didn't open on Tuesday was where the real crisis was eventually averted. And there was no internet, so I heard it driving from my office in Greenway Plaza downtown for a lunch. 

In today's market that would be a one day decline of  6,000+ points in the Dow - there are no memes to properly reflect that 

Man to have been short that day...

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5360

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59 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Rumor of the Fed only raising rates .5 (instead of .75) stokes the markets.  When JPow drops the .75 hammer, we will hear the lamentation of the women.

I don't think it was so much a rumor of only .5, it was one of the Fed Governors saying not to assume that they'll just automatically do .75 every month until they hit their target and there is likely to be a slowdown in rate increases from a likely .75 in November to .5 to .25 in future months before pausing.

Also talked a lot about the dangers of tightening too fast or too much based on lagging indicators and causing more pain than necessary. 

It was enough to soothe fears for today at least.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11861

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15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I don't think it was so much a rumor of only .5, it was one of the Fed Governors saying not to assume that they'll just automatically do .75 every month until they hit their target and there is likely to be a slowdown in rate increases from a likely .75 in November to .5 to .25 in future months before pausing.

Also talked a lot about the dangers of tightening too fast or too much based on lagging indicators and causing more pain than necessary. 

It was enough to soothe fears for today at least.

 

It doesn’t make a shit.

When Powell gets on the mike and says, “fuck your calls” its on.  In the bad direction.

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2331

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Posted

The election is Nov 8th. Next fed meeting is Nov 1-2. Early voting has started in parts of the US. My gut tells me fed talk will be more subdued until after the election. There is probably some not so subtle conversations going on from the admin to the fed and why wouldn't they. Being wrong on this will not be great for my portfolio but thats where my mind is. Regardless I am taking profits again if the market approaches the 200 day moving average as that is where the summer rally fizzled and my personal opinion is this is another bear market rally we have started. 

I'm still on the don't fight the fed bandwagon. And sitting on the sidelines in any capacity will now be netting you 4-5% over the next year. 

Just to rant, I'm still pissed at reading for decades how a 60/40 portfolio stocks and bonds is a nice hedge for a downtown. The bond funds I had in my 401k were down 9% when I moved that portion back into stocks. Never again. Going forward I am either stocks or cash for the rest of my life. There will be no bonds in my portfolio. Why would I if I view that percent of my retirement as conservative. Full disclosure I was 80/20 when I made the move. Everyone who pushes bonds can get fucked. What is their use? 

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Viking

Viking 301

Posted
Posted
On 10/22/2022 at 6:53 AM, UTGrad98 said:

Just to rant, I'm still pissed at reading for decades how a 60/40 portfolio stocks and bonds is a nice hedge for a downtown. 

I've been 100% US equities* for 20 years and see no reason to change. Basic thesis is that the USA is still the best combination of political stability, demographics, and environment for corporate growth/profits. Nothing else comes close imo.

 

*: I cheated once and had an international fund for 6 months. That was a mistake.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

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So what is everybody's guess as to why the market is going up, or really anybody's guess?

- more TINA, the rest of the world is in worse economic shitstorm than the US
- just a melt-up before the next big crash
- smart money/dumb money think more upside return than downside risk (ps - there is no smart money)
- the more it goes up, the more people have FOMO disease, it is very contagious
- thinking the Fed is doing to pull a surprise slowdown in interest rate increases after the election
- like most other market moves, who really knows what is going on
- the group think driven there are no black swan events on the horizon (ps - there never are until it already happens)

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So what is everybody's guess as to why the market is going up, or really anybody's guess?

- more TINA, the rest of the world is in worse economic shitstorm than the US
- just a melt-up before the next big crash
- the more it goes up, the more people have FOMO disease, it is very contagious
- the group think driven there are no black swan events on the horizon (ps - there never are until it already happens)

Edited by Hefeweizen
Quoted the ones I think. I do think this is a fools gold rally.
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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8933

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Posted
3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I do think this is a fools gold rally

Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

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9 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

She also said take Texas and the points.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5416

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We’re doing our forecasting right now in business and it’s going to be a flat year, maybe even down slightly - single digits.  That is after ten percent plus growth since 2010.  So yeah it’s a full on recession and it’s going to last a year.  2023 will probably still suck.  But I think 3q or 4q will start to accelerate.  
 

I do think interest rates are going to be the lagging indicator for recovery so the Fed is going to be chasing them down too far just like they chased them up too slowly.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8933

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1 hour ago, Party_Taco said:

It’s almost like she’s telling him exactly what he needs to hear to not have him rock the boat…

FWiW I work at a VERY large company and we’re expecting much of the same, with a Q3/Q4 ‘24 uptick after some shit between now and then.

Nah, we're not boat rockers. We're buying low and in it for the long run. We've been with her for several years and she's really she's really up-front and straightforward about the situation. She's also a friend, so we know her outside of the investment world. We always plan for the worst and while we have a nice amount of money with her, we don't have enough that she's going to get rich off what she can convince us to give her. We've actually changed retirement dates a couple of times and she just reworked everything and gave us our new numbers. I've heard horror stories about financial planners, but we've luckily never experienced that. 

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Guest

Guest

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Posted (edited)

Google disappoints. Stock down 6%. YouTube actually showed revenue down year over year.

Chipotle reports pretty solid despite a number of price increases.

 

Very interested to see what happens with major tech. Google, Meta, Apple, etc. seem to be reaching saturation. Google trades at a multiple of 19. Apple trades at 25. Meta trades at 11.5. For reference, P&G trades at 22. 3M trades at 16.

There will always be growth avenues that maybe we aren't seeing today, but seems safe to assume that they've had their growth run. Are these about to turn into cash-flow monsters that just pay big dividends and buyback shares?

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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txduck87

txduck87 1020

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Met with our financial planner a couple of weeks ago for our regular 6 month meeting. She said the pundits thought there would be a bit of a rally, but that it would still be up and down, but more up than down until after the beginning of the year. Then we'd have another big drop and it would go for 6 months in a row to hit what most people define as a recession. Then at the end of 23, middle of 24, there will be a huge rally and everything lost will be made up and then some. We are looking to retire in 2025, so if they/she are right we will time things really well. 

LOL.

If she could time the market, she certainly wouldn’t be wasting her time telling other people. She’d be on a private beach somewhere.

Newsflash; she doesn’t know shit. Just like everybody else.
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Party_Taco

Party_Taco 3882

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Google disappoints. Stock down 6%. YouTube actually showed revenue down year over year.

Chipotle reports pretty solid despite a number of price increases.
 
Very interested to see what happens with major tech. Google, Meta, Apple, etc. seem to be reaching saturation. Google trades at a multiple of 19. Apple trades at 25. Meta trades at 11.5. For reference, P&G trades at 22. 3M trades at 16.
There will always be growth avenues that maybe we aren't seeing today, but seems safe to assume that they've had their growth run. Are these about to turn into cash-flow monsters that just pay big dividends and buyback shares?

Q1 is gonna be a bloodbath for big tech, but Q3/A4 could be spicy if you’re ready to pounce after Christmas.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

Posted
Posted
On 10/24/2022 at 1:45 PM, Viking said:

I've been 100% US equities* for 20 years and see no reason to change. Basic thesis is that the USA is still the best combination of political stability, demographics, and environment for corporate growth/profits. Nothing else comes close imo.

 

*: I cheated once and had an international fund for 6 months. That was a mistake.

Best nugget I heard when I first started was the biggest US companies are international so there’s no reason for actually going international with your picks. Probably close minded and riddled with poor examples, but I always believed it

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