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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

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dumb question amnesty requested.  Do wash sale rules apply across two different accounts if one is tied only to me and the other is a community property account with my wife.  I know that within the same individual, all accounts are considered when identifying wash rules, but does it work the same way if my wife is also on one account but not the other?

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

dumb question amnesty requested.  Do wash sale rules apply across two different accounts if one is tied only to me and the other is a community property account with my wife.  I know that within the same individual, all accounts are considered when identifying wash rules, but does it work the same way if my wife is also on one account but not the other?

Do you live in Texas? 

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Posted
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16 hours ago, Anastasis said:

dumb question amnesty requested.  Do wash sale rules apply across two different accounts if one is tied only to me and the other is a community property account with my wife.  I know that within the same individual, all accounts are considered when identifying wash rules, but does it work the same way if my wife is also on one account but not the other?

"What if you buy and sell securities from separate accounts? The wash sales rule applies per investor, not per account. Selling shares from one account and buying them in another is not a work-around. Brokers track and report wash sales within the same account and include the sales in the gain and loss report to the IRS. However, if the trades are in different accounts, you are responsible for tracking wash sales."

https://pbllp.com/dont-let-wash-sale-rule-ruin-tax-planning

 

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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Fed raises 50bps .  Dow drops as expected.   Wording signalling the future is critical.  

IMO, raising rates only murders housing and maybe automobiles when the supply side is the key to inflation. Stop killing buying power !  Raising rates also raises supply side borrowing costs, making inflation WORSE in many sectors.   Let the natural flow of supply side work its magic you Fed dumbasses. 

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1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Fed raises 50bps .  Dow drops as expected.   Wording signalling the future is critical.  

IMO, raising rates only murders housing and maybe automobiles when the supply side is the key to inflation. Stop killing buying power !  Raising rates also raises supply side borrowing costs, making inflation WORSE in many sectors.   Let the natural flow of supply side work its magic you Fed dumbasses. 

I'm not at this point yet. I'm glad to see rates off the floor. I don't think rates at 0% is good for the long-term. Glad to take some of the froth out of things. Hell, savers can earn almost 5% risk-free right now (granted it's still negative in real rates). When was the last time that happened? 

At this point my complaint is that they started too late to raise rates. But glad they are up there a little bit and glad they are slowing the increases in the face of inflation numbers starting to fall.

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pantone159

pantone159 727

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39 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I'm not at this point yet. I'm glad to see rates off the floor. I don't think rates at 0% is good for the long-term. Glad to take some of the froth out of things. Hell, savers can earn almost 5% risk-free right now (granted it's still negative in real rates). When was the last time that happened?

This. The zero interest rate environment that we have had for about a decade and a half now, is not normal or healthy. It meant that savers got jack-squat in returns, and there was all this capital chasing any kind of return which led to all kinds of crazy things like crypto. I am of the opinion that avoiding a recession is more critical than avoiding inflation right now, but much of the interest rate increases is really things getting back to sort of normal and not really trying to slow things down.

 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

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16 hours ago, pantone159 said:

This. The zero interest rate environment that we have had for about a decade and a half now, is not normal or healthy. It meant that savers got jack-squat in returns, and there was all this capital chasing any kind of return which led to all kinds of crazy things like crypto. I am of the opinion that avoiding a recession is more critical than avoiding inflation right now, but much of the interest rate increases is really things getting back to sort of normal and not really trying to slow things down.

 

QE was a temporary fix to a serious problem. The fact that we ran it for a decade was pure "fuck around and find out" economics. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4698

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19 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Fed raises 50bps .  Dow drops as expected.   Wording signalling the future is critical.  

IMO, raising rates only murders housing and maybe automobiles when the supply side is the key to inflation. Stop killing buying power !  Raising rates also raises supply side borrowing costs, making inflation WORSE in many sectors.   Let the natural flow of supply side work its magic you Fed dumbasses. 

 

18 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I'm not at this point yet. I'm glad to see rates off the floor. I don't think rates at 0% is good for the long-term. Glad to take some of the froth out of things. Hell, savers can earn almost 5% risk-free right now (granted it's still negative in real rates). When was the last time that happened? 

At this point my complaint is that they started too late to raise rates. But glad they are up there a little bit and glad they are slowing the increases in the face of inflation numbers starting to fall.

 

17 hours ago, pantone159 said:

This. The zero interest rate environment that we have had for about a decade and a half now, is not normal or healthy. It meant that savers got jack-squat in returns, and there was all this capital chasing any kind of return which led to all kinds of crazy things like crypto. I am of the opinion that avoiding a recession is more critical than avoiding inflation right now, but much of the interest rate increases is really things getting back to sort of normal and not really trying to slow things down.

 

I agree with the sentiment of all 3 of these comments.  I don’t think raising rates is having the intended effect on inflation and I am not at all sure that inflation receding is due to rate increases as much as due to other factors (oil prices normalizing, supply chains recovering from covid, etc.).  However,  I am ok with them having raised rates to this point because I think continued super low rate policy was bad, and using this low unemployment environment to normalize things (regardless of inflation) to give them more leeway in changing rates in the future is a good thing.  I just hope they prioritize keeping unemployment low (I.e. avoiding/minimizing recession) over continuing to raise to combat inflation.  5-6% inflation with 6% unemployment is WAY better than 2-3% inflation with 11% unemployment.  I’m hoping they do one more 0.5 hike next month and then chill for awhile.

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19 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Exactly. They are shoving this economy over the edge just to prove they are in control.

 

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

QE was a temporary fix to a serious problem. The fact that we ran it for a decade was pure "fuck around and find out" economics. 

Way to play both sides there. 

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B00M

B00M 6725

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1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:

Is it time to buy yet?

No there are at least 2 more 25 bps rate hikes. Maybe even another 50 then the 25s… Powell laid this out yesterday and none of it was a surprise. He waited too long to start raising rates, now they’re moving too fast, we are essentially guaranteed a recession. 

On a similar note, why do so many people still claim it’s impossible to time the market? The only thing the market reacts to are huge world events and the mother fucking fed. The fed clearly telegraphs it’s moves. Just follow the fed in our horribly broken market.

what am I missing?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9967

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3 minutes ago, B00M said:

what am I missing?

Some have a longer time horizon and see value at these levels. I agree with your conclusions. The Fed is using the “laws” of the Phillips Curve as a crude sledgehammer  to crush inflation. They see unemployment as the simplest method of achieving demand destruction. Recession does not worry them. 
 

The Fed promised pain—and intends to deliver. Services inflation remains sticky. I see another leg down; capitulation isn’t here yet.  

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49 minutes ago, B00M said:


On a similar note, why do so many people still claim it’s impossible to time the market? The only thing the market reacts to are huge world events and the mother fucking fed. The fed clearly telegraphs it’s moves. Just follow the fed in our horribly broken market.

what am I missing?

Lol. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Some have a longer time horizon and see value at these levels. I agree with your conclusions. The Fed is using the “laws” of the Phillips Curve as a crude sledgehammer  to crush inflation. They see unemployment as the simplest method of achieving demand destruction. Recession does not worry them. 
 

The Fed promised pain—and intends to deliver. Services inflation remains sticky. I see another leg down; capitulation isn’t here yet.  

The problem with the FED's plan is they also create supply destruction in certain areas via high interest rates, namely the durables sector.  Durable goods producers will make their own microeconomic decisions in order to maintain margins.  They'll be behind the 8-ball when the market turns, and we know where that goes.  Not to mention the durable goods sector is already in a supply destruction environment which exacerbates inflation.  We're in a funny money vicious cycle.  

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9967

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing?srnd=premium
 

The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession.

Notwithstanding their losses this week, equities gained over the quarter, driving up their value relative to other asset classes and forcing managers with strict allocation mandates to sell them to meet targets. Bonds are the likely beneficiaries of sales by sovereign wealth, pension and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and StoneX Financial Inc.

0B76B7E2-A35B-411C-AB24-3CC87E99B6FB.thumb.jpeg.613bdd870de5a18b7137abbb4c8fdbbb.jpeg

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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5 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing?srnd=premium
 

The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession.

Notwithstanding their losses this week, equities gained over the quarter, driving up their value relative to other asset classes and forcing managers with strict allocation mandates to sell them to meet targets. Bonds are the likely beneficiaries of sales by sovereign wealth, pension and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and StoneX Financial Inc.

0B76B7E2-A35B-411C-AB24-3CC87E99B6FB.thumb.jpeg.613bdd870de5a18b7137abbb4c8fdbbb.jpeg

Why do you share stupid bullshit like this?

EDIT:Constantly. Why do you constantly share the stupid bullshit you do? Please respond with dumbass graphs

Edited by StassneyHorn
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On 12/16/2022 at 1:45 PM, washparkhorn said:

The New World Order—

30AAB9F3-9EFB-4DA6-859C-ED034224404F.thumb.jpeg.13048342f76b64abd8253385be79b14c.jpeg

This is some BS -- even if it's trying to pain a positive outlook with the "more than ample" prospective returns.

It makes it sound like 2009-2021 were just a walk in the park for investors, no one had any worries, and things were chill. If you bought and held during that time, you did very well. But it wasn't always easy. But it was also a time that saw a big 2018 drawdown, a practically overnight 35% drop with Covid, lots of fear and uncertainty following the 2008/09 crash, and a bull market that seemingly nobody really trusted.

Was it a great time to invest? Absolutely. But to make it sound like it was paradise where everything was perfect and no one had worries is silly.

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