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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This is some BS -- even if it's trying to pain a positive outlook with the "more than ample" prospective returns.

It makes it sound like 2009-2021 were just a walk in the park for investors, no one had any worries, and things were chill. If you bought and held during that time, you did very well. But it wasn't always easy. But it was also a time that saw a big 2018 drawdown, a practically overnight 35% drop with Covid, lots of fear and uncertainty following the 2008/09 crash, and a bull market that seemingly nobody really trusted.

Was it a great time to invest? Absolutely. But to make it sound like it was paradise where everything was perfect and no one had worries is silly.

From 2009 - 2021 the Fed pumped up the equity bubble. Anyone who “followed the Fed” and brrrt during that time had an easy time. Contrarians were crushed over and over again.
 

Those days are over, until the Fed restores the Greenspan Put (which will happen, because the Fed will not allow international capital to to suffer). Same as it ever was, until it’s not. 

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

Posted
Posted

the following are 5 year charts for airline stocks , pics taken this afternoon 12/19/22.

Are airline stocks perma-dead? 5 damn years and each is in a steady decline. Gas prices coming down, people are traveling strong, but the airline stocks can't catch a break. What the heck is going on? Is this the bottom these days as the graphs imply or still more downside? 

American

aal.JPG.46a5a36e2727c1138e4952f13c8abb82.JPG

United

ual.JPG.a0e85846235963a5b429f3c202fd6104.JPG

Delta

dal.JPG.9a692574f1477f02c731563cf91b563c.JPG

Southwest

luv.JPG.fbc85062f55d6d5bc34f820266227667.JPG

Alaska

alk.JPG.5dc2f34df8b91e805f4e855c7bda8328.JPG

Spirit

save.JPG.3ee822e30c65b7942396d98bf3206402.JPG

 

 

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DaysOff

DaysOff 7851

Posted
Posted

Wall Street hates growing airlines, and they're all growing like gangbusters. If they had their way half of every fleet would be parked and a proportionate amount of employees furloughed. That would justify doubling ticket prices overnight. That's the way most morons ran this industry for decades. Shrink to profitability, yet it never worked.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

This bear market is getting old. Just a grind lower instead of a washout and bounce back.

I'm still not pessimistic on the economy, but feel like I must be looking at something wrong because everyone else is. Stock market? I'm neutral. I think with a 4-5% risk free rate, there is a lot of money that would be going into investments that is happy to sit in Treasuries/CDs.

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This bear market is getting old. Just a grind lower instead of a washout and bounce back.

I'm still not pessimistic on the economy, but feel like I must be looking at something wrong because everyone else is. Stock market? I'm neutral. I think with a 4-5% risk free rate, there is a lot of money that would be going into investments that is happy to sit in Treasuries/CDs.

No shit dude. And unless the fed breaks something in the bond market, rates are going up again and again in ‘23 … 

best case scenario: the fed’s plan works! They raise interest rates 2-3 more times then hold them there until enough people lose their jobs that prices steady and YOY inflation gets to 2% 

that’s best case! Does it sound like we’re anywhere near the end of that bear market? 
 

love that unelected dipshits get to inflate our currency then create a recession to fix their fuck up

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Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Worst year since 2008 for the market.  Weird times.  I invested heavily from august onwards thinking next year after the first quarter should start to improve.  
 

I am less sure of the next 12 months than I’ve been in a long time.

-19.4% on the S&P. Not bad for the worst in 14 years?

I don't know why, but I feel like I am in bizarro world with economy/investments. I know everyone is bearish and thinks we're going into a recession. We may. But they also said that six months ago. And the entire thing is man-made. I was much more fearful in 2008/09, points during the bull market where things seemed like they would turn over, and then the Covid fall. Everyone keeps saying how bad everything is, and I just don't feel that way.

I almost see this is a repositioning in the markets now that rates are much higher than an economic calamity*

*Does not apply if you are heavily invested in speculative tech stocks.

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23395

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Worst year since 2008 for the market.  Weird times.  I invested heavily from august onwards thinking next year after the first quarter should start to improve.  
 

I am less sure of the next 12 months than I’ve been in a long time.

 

Don't have to plan for harvesting losses for tax purposes if you don't have any gains. 

Roll Safe, the Guy-Tapping-Head Meme, Explained

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19151

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

-19.4% on the S&P. Not bad for the worst in 14 years?

I don't know why, but I feel like I am in bizarro world with economy/investments. I know everyone is bearish and thinks we're going into a recession. We may. But they also said that six months ago. And the entire thing is man-made. I was much more fearful in 2008/09, points during the bull market where things seemed like they would turn over, and then the Covid fall. Everyone keeps saying how bad everything is, and I just don't feel that way.

I almost see this is a repositioning in the markets now that rates are much higher than an economic calamity*

*Does not apply if you are heavily invested in speculative tech stocks.

I take solace in the fact that in recessions past the market puts in the bottom right about the time the recession is made official.  If we're going into an official recession it's going to be pretty soon.  If not, then to the fucking moon baby.

I'm using the past six months and next few months to buy boring ass proven tech stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN.  Hell, even shitco INTC is starting to look half ass decent at current valuations.  Same strategery worked fine buying boring ass proven energy companies like XOM, CVX, SLB, etc back in 2020.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

Posted
Posted (edited)

Dueling reports this morning leading to a quick reversal from gains to losses.

ISM Manufacturing Prices Index continued to crater, down to lowest level since mid-2020.

However, JOLTS reports for November showed job openings remaining steady at 10.5M (was expected to drop to 10.0). 

Fed cares more about that 2nd one.

 

Edited by Storm the Field
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48975

Posted
Posted
On 12/30/2022 at 7:46 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm using the past six months and next few months to buy boring ass proven tech stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN.  Hell, even shitco INTC is starting to look half ass decent at current valuations.  Same strategery worked fine buying boring ass proven energy companies like XOM, CVX, SLB, etc back in 2020.

Dollar cost avg probably allowing yah to pick up more MSFT and AAPL in early 2023...

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