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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10482

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

2Y futures down 53bps. 30Y futures down 9bps. Flattener trade net profit 44bps. 
 

My sister in Christ, this is a weird battle for you to pick. 

Because I have hard time with know it alls who can’t admit when they’re wrong. You say that 2 year futures are down 53bps. Bps refers to yield. Do you not know that lower yields mean higher bond prices?  Higher bond prices mean people are buying not selling. 

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52-80

52-80 19086

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

Because I have hard time with know it alls who can’t admit when they’re wrong. You say that 2 year futures are down 53bps. Bps refers to yield. Do you not know that lower yields mean higher bond prices?  Higher bond prices mean people are buying not selling. 

You’re really doing this huh?

I didn’t make the trade (nor did my original post even imply it). Being right or wrong is on it is therefore inconsequential to me. 

Next post mentioning the 2Y, I literally wrote “yield”; and the damn “curve”, which is expressed in what?… yield

My sentiment across the entire weekend were that that SVB buying treasuries were notionally good, but the bad part was the LONG maturity.

In my first post, I hypothesized if the bonds would be sold off, mentioning specifically ZB/Ultras which represent the 30Y bonds. 

Lets add it together. Banks holding short term treasuries good. Banks holding long term treasuries bad. Banks rebalancing their portfolio would sell bonds (yields up) and buy bills/notes (yields down)

Gee…logically…how would that be expressed in a trade? 
 

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 40

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Plenty of bank stocks on sale. Wish I followed the industry enough to know which ones were worth a shit, if any. Even a conservative ass bank like Frost is down basically 33% from its 52 week high. 


Banks still getting hit despite Fed measures. Even big ones. 
 

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19086

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Blotto said:

Plenty of bank stocks on sale. Wish I followed the industry enough to know which ones were worth a shit, if any. Even a conservative ass bank like Frost is down basically 33% from its 52 week high. 

Im planning to take a punt on XLF if it ends the week down  

But I also took a punt on CS as shared on surly, on which im underwater, for dude who implies as if I hide my losing trades …

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
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For those of you who don't believe in the "Wally Effect" - let me tell you a little story.

I've been working for about 2 years in temp/contract positions mostly as Controller/Director of Finance positions, and interviewed in Jan & Feb with a Pharma start-up. Shockingly, they offered me the job, and I was supposed to start today; but my contract position let me out early so I was able to start last Thursday. But since they didn't have a laptop or licenses for a couple of the systems, I spent those 2 days last week getting all my orientation crap done, meeting group leaders from Sales, Ops, Mfg, Gov't Affairs, and other bull shit. Talked a couple of times a day with the CFO; actually a great way to start work without having to get right into the grind. 
I come in today, to a some emails from the CFO and CEO and we are changing banking.
They had opened a new Chase account on Saturday, because our primary banking relationship is with First Republic - luckily I thought that the full Wally Effect would sink the ship on what was supposed to be my last day. Now all we have to do is start finding a new lender, because they want to sever all ties ASAP; not what I thought I was jumping into....but at least they didn't decide to pay me for my 2 days and say see 'ya.

Depending on how this goes, keep your eyes on the stonk thread 😉

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10145

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

So looking at the mess in terms of stocks, the fed rate and inflation, is the outcome now going to be a rising stock market, 3-4% inflation and a fed who chooses to lower the rate to avoid a banking crisis?

Personally think it starts a slow, long declining market now that everyone knows Fed is in a box that can't be moved quickly. Inflation rise/ market slowdown will last a lot longer.

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Gravy Train

Gravy Train 974

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I've been working for about 2 years in temp/contract positions mostly as Controller/Director of Finance positions, and interviewed in Jan & Feb with a Pharma start-up. Shockingly, they offered me the job, and I was supposed to start today; but my contract position let me out early so I was able to start last Thursday. But since they didn't have a laptop or licenses for a couple of the systems, I spent those 2 days last week getting all my orientation crap done, meeting group leaders from Sales, Ops, Mfg, Gov't Affairs, and other bull shit.

Depending on how this goes, keep your eyes on the stonk thread 😉

Sounds like you also need an effective CTO or VP of Technology, if you wanna shoot me a PM

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13411

Posted
Posted

Meta announcing more layoffs. I guess they figured out that the previous 11k eliminated jobs didn't create any meaningful ops or business continuity issues. Why not drop 10K more and close 5K open job postings. 

Sucks for those involved but they may discover that being in the first or early rounds of layoffs can be the best option as it gives you more time to find the next job before others come into the job market.

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27447

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sucks for those involved but they may discover that being in the first or early rounds of layoffs can be the best option as it gives you more time to find the next job before others come into the job market.

This is 100% spot on, those laid off first usually have a better comp package too

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52-80

52-80 19086

Posted
Posted

Dog carcass in NYSE this morning, tire tread on burst stomach. Wall street is afraid of me. I have seen its true face.

The exchange are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over, all the speculators will drown.

The accumulated losses of all their gambles and call options will foam up about their waists and all the bankers and politicians will look up and shout "Save us!"…

…and I'll look down and whisper "No”

-Warren E Buffett

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52-80

52-80 19086

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Posted

European banks were like -10% across the board as everyone is 2nd quessing the stability of their capitalization. 

If they fooled all the auditors, regulators, analysts, and investors so far, some folks expected that the acting treasurer of a 30-person startup should have done a better job of due diligence at SVB?

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

For what it’s worth some of the big private wealth advisors are now telling clients to sell into rallies.  There is real fear right now.

Good lord, the writing has been on the wall for at least 6 months

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Almost certainly came from a wide spectrum of non top 4 banks and continuing daily. It's a big fucking problem. 

You sound like somebody that enjoys your Liberty a bit too much. Bow down to your mega bank overlords and embrace the looming central bank digital currency you pleb

 

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Shaggy3.0

Shaggy3.0 1695

Posted
Posted

First Republic gets $30B rescue

 

Eleven banks deposited $30 billion at First Republic on Thursday afternoon, in a government-backed bid to bolster the ailing lender and boost confidence in the U.S. banking system. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup each contributed some $5 billion, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kicked in $2.5 billion a piece. First Republic had seen its shares crater following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, as investors worried over its high level of uninsured deposits. The regional bank’s stock closed 10% up after the rescue package was announced.

 

  • The banks' uninsured deposits will have to stay at First Republic for at least 120 days.

 

 

Money regional bank depositors transferred to a "Too Big To Fail Bank" is now return deposited to the original troubled bank?  Are we back to where we started?

My head hurts.

 

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 40

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

First Republic gets $30B rescue

 

Eleven banks deposited $30 billion at First Republic on Thursday afternoon, in a government-backed bid to bolster the ailing lender and boost confidence in the U.S. banking system. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup each contributed some $5 billion, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kicked in $2.5 billion a piece. First Republic had seen its shares crater following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, as investors worried over its high level of uninsured deposits. The regional bank’s stock closed 10% up after the rescue package was announced.

 

  • The banks' uninsured deposits will have to stay at First Republic for at least 120 days.

 

 

Money regional bank depositors transferred to a "Too Big To Fail Bank" is now return deposited to the original troubled bank?  Are we back to where we started?

My head hurts.

 

Lol this is very reminiscent of recent crypto happenings when shady exchange CEOs were shuffling coins around to cover up various balance sheet holes. Rightfully mocked. Now it’s in traditional finance at 10x plus size.

 

Moral of the story, you cant taper a ponzi. At least not without triggering a 13 figure bailout. 

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2258

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Party_Taco said:

Sold off my biggest position today… seemed like a good time as I really have no idea what to expect the next couple years, so I might as well have that money in more stable locations.

I have no idea what is happening or how the market will react. Bad news is good news until it isn't good news anymore is where I'm at currently. I actually bought a smalish position in jepi recently.  Covered call etf. Works well in sideways markets and is a nice hedge in down markets from what I can gather provided you hold it long enough. Not great in bull markets. Money market is now my dominant position in my personal vanguard account and about 70% of my 401k is still in the stock market. Large cap fund I believe. 

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
On 3/17/2023 at 12:16 PM, Party_Taco said:

Sold off my biggest position today… seemed like a good time as I really have no idea what to expect the next couple years, so I might as well have that money in more stable locations.

Powell thanks you, especially if you use that money to buy US Treasury Bills since the rest of the world is offloading them

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, B00M said:

Powell thanks you, especially if you use that money to buy US Treasury Bills since the rest of the world is offloading them

Source?  I’m aware of China and a few others but who is buying all the debt being issued?  I think you may be exaggerating just a bit.

 

Edit:  yeah the purchases by foreign buyers have stayed basically flat, with us banks picking up the slack (as is the Fed).  That is not offloading which is a silly statement.

Edited by Hefeweizen
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