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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Source?  I’m aware of China and a few others but who is buying all the debt being issued?  I think you may be exaggerating just a bit.

 

Edit:  yeah the purchases by foreign buyers have stayed basically flat, with us banks picking up the slack (as is the Fed).  That is not offloading which is a silly statement.

So my statement was based on some old headlines, and I was definitely shooting from the hip. When you say foreign holdings have stayed flat, is that as a percentage of total debt? 
 

Quote

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries held by foreigners rose in November for the first time in three months, data from the U.S. Treasury department showed on Wednesday, as the decline in yields enhanced the allure of government debt for investors.

Foreign holdings advanced to $7.273 trillion in November, from a revised $7.131 trillion the previous month. The increase in holdings came after dropping in October to their lowest level since May 2021…

…The increase in foreign buying was led by Japan, whose holdings expanded to $1.082 trillion in November from $1.064 trillion in October. Japan, the largest non-U.S. holder of U.S. government debt, reduced its load of Treasuries in the previous four months to defend the struggling yen.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/foreign-holdings-treasuries-rise-november-led-by-japan-data-2023-01-18/

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Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, 4th and 5 said:

How good or bad of an idea is getting into the market right now?

100% cash liquid now.  

Did you predict the 2020 Covid drop? Did you get in at the bottom? Did you predict the huge run-up through 2021? What about SVB? Do you know how the debt ceiling issue will be resolved?

Not doing that to be a smart ass, but to illustrate no one knows shit about what could happen.

It's fun to talk about, to guess, to hypothesize, but no one knows. The only thing that is known is that over time the U.S. stock market has been the biggest generator of wealth in human history. Will it continue? I don't know. But until I'm convinced there is something better, I keep plugging away. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 4th and 5 said:

How good or bad of an idea is getting into the market right now?

100% cash liquid now.  

 

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Did you predict the 2020 Covid drop? Did you get in at the bottom? Did you predict the huge run-up through 2021? What about SVB? Do you know how the debt ceiling issue will be resolved?

Not doing that to be a smart ass, but to illustrate no one knows shit about what could happen.

It's fun to talk about, to guess, to hypothesize, but no one knows. The only thing that is known is that over time the U.S. stock market has been the biggest generator of wealth in human history. Will it continue? I don't know. But until I'm convinced there is something better, I keep plugging away. 

Don't worry about the market correction, I fixed that.

Sold a 6/30 SPY $390 call, so now you know what the floor is. Act according to your own judgement (past performance is not a guarantee of future results, except when it is - amirite?)

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Man.  You are one.  Pathetic.  LOSER!  (No offense, Man.)

None taken 

I've sold calls in the past, it is a good way to generate income. I've held off for a while, but I think there are bigger problems in banking) the economy that still need to be fixed.

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't want to sit on the side and watch the correction. I will layer more calls in every week or two, depending on momentum. 

I've quit trying to guess when the winds of change will occur; and have decided to ride the prevailing current/wind. But you do you...

Boomer out

 

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Me too.  I make a few grand on the trade (uncovered), and within 1h after would have been down 300+k if I held.  Fuck that shit.  

selling uncovered is certifiably crazy - I am selling against the box, so worst case I will net $410/share including the call (plus the interest on holding the premium for 90+ days)

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

selling uncovered is certifiably crazy - I am selling against the box, so worst case I will net $410/share including the call (plus the interest on holding the premium for 90+ days)

Only took one trade and watching the theoretical outcome to learn that lesson.  I thank my God almost every day that my conference call ended early that particular day and I pulled the trigger on the exit. 

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, 4th and 5 said:

How good or bad of an idea is getting into the market right now?

100% cash liquid now.  

Fuck it, I’ll say it. It’s Its a bad idea unless you have a very long time horizon and balls of steel. We’re staring down the barrel of a lost decade. We’re either going to get fucked by inflation or a significant recession. If you have access to a fidelity (for instance) money market you can get paid 4.5-5% to wait. I’m assuming you can’t get that at your bank. You could then dollar cost average your way (buy the dips if you can’t automate this) into a couple index funds like VT and VTI to get in on the way down of what I believe will be a significant correction. You could simultaneously buy I-bonds and TIPS from treasurydirect to at least keep up with official inflation rates which even the fed projects are only coming down if a couple million people lose their jobs. 

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txduck87

txduck87 982

Posted
Posted
Fuck it, I’ll say it. It’s Its a bad idea unless you have a very long time horizon and balls of steel. We’re staring down the barrel of a lost decade. We’re either going to get fucked by inflation or a significant recession. If you have access to a fidelity (for instance) money market you can get paid 4.5-5% to wait. I’m assuming you can’t get that at your bank. You could then dollar cost average your way (buy the dips if you can’t automate this) into a couple index funds like VT and VTI to get in on the way down of what I believe will be a significant correction. You could simultaneously buy I-bonds and TIPS from treasurydirect to at least keep up with official inflation rates which even the fed projects are only coming down if a couple million people lose their jobs. 

Be greedy when others are fearful. Set your equity allocation and let simmer for 30 years. Reallocate once a year to that percentage. Timing the market is a fools game.

#retiredat55
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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, txduck87 said:


Be greedy when others are fearful. Set your equity allocation and let simmer for 30 years. Reallocate once a year to that percentage. Timing the market is a fools game.

#retiredat55

We’re only 17% down from ATH in S&P500. Clearly, most people are still being greedy. We’re no where near capitulation. Be fearful when others are greedy is the first half of that quote. I hope this shit show doesn’t affect your retirement 

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txduck87

txduck87 982

Posted
Posted
We’re only 17% down from ATH in S&P500. Clearly, most people are still being greedy. We’re no where near capitulation. Be fearful when others are greedy is the first half of that quote. I hope this shit show doesn’t affect your retirement 

It won’t. Properly allocated based on age and risk . My equity exposure is down to 50% from 85% when I was a younger fella. No one knows where the market is going over the next day, week, month, year, 3 years. My experience has told me though that the market will be much higher in 10-20 years and I can’t time it.

Think we are on somewhat the same page here. I just don’t think it best to sit it out, for a decade .
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bernorange

bernorange 8348

Posted
Posted

Anyone here using this?

Quote

...
We’re talking about a simple portfolio that absolutely anyone could follow in their own 401(k) or IRA or retirement account. Low cost, no muss, no fuss. And it’s managed to do two powerful things simultaneously.

It’s beaten the standard Wall Street portfolio of 60% U.S. stocks and 40% bonds. Not just last year, when it beat them by an astonishing 7 percentage points, but for half a century.

And it’s done so with way less risk. Fewer upsets. Fewer disasters. And no “lost” decades.

Last year, 2022, marked the 50th year of this unheralded portfolio, which is termed “All Asset No Authority,” and which we’ve written about here before.

It’s the brainchild of Doug Ramsey. He’s the chief investment officer of Leuthold & Co., a long-established fund management company that has sensibly located itself in Minneapolis, a long, long way away from Wall Street.

AANA is amazingly simple, surprisingly complex, and has been astonishingly durable. It consists simply of splitting your investment portfolio into 7 equal amounts, and investing one apiece in U.S. large-company stocks (the S&P 500 SPX, +2.28% ), U.S. small-company stocks (the Russell 2000 RUT, +2.26% ), developed international stocks (the Europe, Australasia and Far East or EAFE index), gold GC00, +0.04%, commodities, U.S. real-estate investment trusts or REITS, and 10 year Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.562%.

It was Ramsey’s answer to the question: How would you allocate your long-term investments if you wanted to give your money manager no discretion at all, but wanted to maximize diversification?

AANA covers an array of asset classes, including real estate, commodities and gold, so it’s durable in periods of inflation as well as disinflation or deflation. And it’s a fixed allocation. You spread the money equally across the 7 assets, rebalancing once a year to put them back to equal weights. And that’s it. The manager—you, me, or Fredo—doesn’t have to do anything else. They not allowed to do anything else. They have no authority.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-crazy-retirement-portfolio-has-just-beaten-wall-street-for-50-years-11672945313

Quote

...
Anyone who wanted to follow this portfolio — this is not a recommendation, merely an observation — could do so easily using 7 low-cost exchange-traded funds, such as the SPDR S&P 500 SPY, +2.29%, iShares Russell 2000 IWM, +2.25%, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets VEA, +2.76%, iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond IEF, +1.29%, SPDR Gold Shares GLD, +1.87%, Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC, +0.55% and Vanguard Real Estate VNQ, +2.69%.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-idiot-proof-portfolio-has-beaten-traditional-stocks-and-bonds-over-50-years-11652463679

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Posted
Posted

So I last did my monthly sheet of accounts two days before SVB hit. My investment accounts are now higher than they were then despite multiple bank failures because... reasons. (Insert brrrrt joke here.)

The smartest thing I've ever done is finally convince myself that I don't know shit and to quit monkeying with things.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Good ol FOMC Day roller coaster.

Markets bounced a bit right after the 25 bps announcement, dove when Powell started talking, recovered back to slightly positive towards the 2nd half of his speech, and then puked into the close afterwards.

RC.jpg.3eab1e86a14ee0287782b25d544626f6.jpg

 

image.gif.effbe8d79da82682eba985be71ab67ce.gif

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

He needs to STFU.

Everyone associated with the financial sector needs to STFU and stop telling us how strong and resilient they are. They’re all effectively ADs coming out to publicly support their embattled head football corch. It always plays out the same.

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Shaggy3.0

Shaggy3.0 1695

Posted
Posted

Alright guys.  Look.  If we all go broke, we go broke together.  Insolvency isn't the worst thing, right?

Tell you what.  When Depression 2.0 begins, I volunteer to BBQ hot dogs and hamburgers at the Buda Park every Saturday.  BBQ is better than soup lines, amirite?  Just come on down and I'll have the grill ready to go.  Bring your own condiments tho.  And don't question the meat.

 

 

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Alright guys.  Look.  If we all go broke, we go broke together.  Insolvency isn't the worst thing, right?

Tell you what.  When Depression 2.0 begins, I volunteer to BBQ hot dogs and hamburgers at the Buda Park every Saturday.  BBQ is better than soup lines, amirite?  Just come on down and I'll have the grill ready to go.  Bring your own condiments tho.  And don't question the meat.

 

 

 

What is this brand of bbq you speak of?   Are you from New Jersey? 

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B00M

B00M 6280

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

What is this brand of bbq you speak of?   Are you from New Jersey? 

It says right here, don’t question the meat. In iDepression, you can eat your cat or you can eat Shaggy’s meat. Your choice bro!
Mike Judge GIF by Idiocracy

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
Posted
On 10/13/2022 at 4:33 PM, Wally Fairway said:

So glad I have BRK.B 1/19/2024 calls, that got closer to the money today, not there yet but I have 14 months of a slow death if Uncle Warren and his crazy sidekick can't get some more traction.

I don't know what happend to BRK.B, it is almost like Warren & Co started investing in stonks instead of well run companies.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11564

Posted
Posted

Anyone else see Sternlicht on Squawk Box this morning?  The dude seemed almost manic. 

Obviously, he is in Commerical RE and probably has a good deal of stuff going sideways.

Not confidence inspiring.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/03/23/the-economy-will-have-a-hard-landing-from-inflation-starwood-capital-ceo-barry-sternlicht.html

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11564

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

On a scale from 1 to Malia Khalifa, how fucked are we?

who knows.

But, shouldn't the scale be 1 to South Austin's mom?

 

I sure as hell wouldn't want to have my ability to feed my family directly tied to the owning, building or leasing of urban office space.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26279

Posted
Posted (edited)

Remember how I spent 20 years across 4 message boards telling you how flattening the business cycle with cheap debt and deficit funded tax cuts would pull all the cushion out of our monetary system? 
Pepperidge Farm remembers

Welcome to the new old normal. Time to kick. 
image.thumb.png.56e458d4fb8147a80d68c874e4caff51.png

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Shaggy3.0

Shaggy3.0 1695

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

What is this brand of bbq you speak of?   Are you from New Jersey? 

It's a special type of BBQ.  And you always finish your meal with fresh cannolis, ya dig?!

Just trying to lighten the mood.  I'm drinking all weekend with some Accenture peeps.  They had a feeling cuts were imminent.   And yup:

 

Accenture cuts 19,000 staff globally

Accenture is laying off 19,000 employees worldwide — about 2.5% of its workforce — and consolidating office space as it seeks to shrink costs amid rising economic uncertainty. The Irish-American consulting giant said the layoffs will mostly affect employees in in back-office or non-client facing roles; it expects to spend US$1.2 billion on severance over the next 18 months. A slowdown in client spending has hit other consultancies: KPMG recently announced it was cutting 2% of its U.S. workforce and McKinsey is reportedly considering eliminating 2,000 jobs.

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19149

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Good ol FOMC Day roller coaster.

Markets bounced a bit right after the 25 bps announcement, dove when Powell started talking, recovered back to slightly positive towards the 2nd half of his speech, and then puked into the close afterwards.

RC.jpg.3eab1e86a14ee0287782b25d544626f6.jpg

 

Always fade the initial reaction to the FOMC minutes.  It's about as reliable a trend as there can be.

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Remember how I spent 20 years across 4 message boards telling you how flattening the business cycle with cheap debt and deficit funded tax cuts would pull all the cushion out of our monetary system? 
Pepperidge Farm remembers

Welcome to the new old normal. Time to kick. 
image.thumb.png.56e458d4fb8147a80d68c874e4caff51.png

Wow man. You should be famous. You're the only person that ever questioned our monetary policy.

Don't pull a muscle patting yourself on the back.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26279

Posted
Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Wow man. You should be famous. You're the only person that ever questioned our monetary policy.

Don't pull a muscle patting yourself on the back.

Oh no, the fiscal policy was actually far worse (IMO), but anyway I'm just reminded that many of our Very Serious People (some still right here on this thread) who are whining about the FOMC ACTUALLY BELIEVED that all this voodoo bullshit would pay for itself. They celebrated the 2001, 2003, and 2017 tax cuts, for example, and said so, and argued with me and others when we said those cuts would not pay for themselves and would eventually necessitate later monetary mitigation and take traditional tools (both fiscal and monetary) off the table at the worst possible time.
So now rates have been raised to a very normal historical level to attempt to head off disaster, and people are acting like it's the Fed that's out of line.

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Blaming "tax cuts" is the equivalent of maxing out your credit card at a 20% interest rate and blaming your boss because your salary isn't enough.

We have a spending problem in this country (personal & governmental) way more than we have a "taxation" problem.

That’s entirely debatable.  The problem is neither revenue nor spending, it’s the deficit.  Any opinion about how much of each side of the ledger needs to be adjusted is hard if not impossible to discuss outside the cloak room.

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