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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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B00M

B00M 6734

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

The brain trust of gif replies to my post should let every one know I’m right. Or you can keep prepping that anus for the 10th month now.

You didn’t give us anything to discuss. You’re getting the same effort level that you put in. 
 

prepareyouranus GIF by FirstAndMonday

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Parliament

Parliament 14598

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

The brain trust of gif replies to my post should let every one know I’m right. Or you can keep prepping that anus for the 10th month now.

You just confirmed you're not a bot.  Bots shitpost more intelligently.  You are just a regular Surly poster; nothing special.  Good day, Sir.

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10803

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty confident the Fed won't/can't allow a bullish move right now, so good luck to anyone feeling bullish right now. Personally I'll wait for a dramatic auto price decline and/or housing market collapse in big areas before hopping on that boat. My feeling is we are looking more towards Aug/Sep at minimum.

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B00M

B00M 6734

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, B00M said:

So gurt is a sock that’s been a member longer than you and unlike you, contributes to surlyhorns? 
 

Chicago Bulls What GIF by NBA

Meant to say burnt ends, not surlyhorns. See, this is why we prefer to communicate in moving pictures

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
Posted

looking to purchase some puts (SPY), because I think it looks like it is going to be a bumpy ride.
I will dip my toes in now, and add to it if the market bounces up some before the end of the month
I am not expecting the Fed to do anything rational, or the debt ceiling to be resolved, or Russia to stop fucking over Ukraine, or shit to start to get better anytime soon

Or - I could do something rational and put more money into BRK.B and  ride the train driven by Uncle Warren and his crazy sidekick Chuck

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Parliament

Parliament 14598

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

looking to purchase some puts (SPY), because I think it looks like it is going to be a bumpy ride.
I will dip my toes in now, and add to it if the market bounces up some before the end of the month
I am not expecting the Fed to do anything rational, or the debt ceiling to be resolved, or Russia to stop fucking over Ukraine, or shit to start to get better anytime soon

Or - I could do something rational and put more money into BRK.B and  ride the train driven by Uncle Warren and his crazy sidekick Chuck

For the love of God, please don't invest in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund.  I have a family to feed.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

For the love of God, please don't invest in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund.  I have a family to feed.

I am thinking of starting a group of ETF's based on that fund, they will be as follows:
- WF 4X alternating day bear/bull VTI fund (switches from 4X bear to 4X bull every other day)
- WF 4X alternating week bear/bull VTI fund (switches from 4X bear to 4X bull every other week)
- WF throw your money down the toilet fund (lights money on fire and throws it down the crapper)

I think if I can just time it all correctly, and what could go wrong with that, that I make enough on the first 2 funds to happily burn some with no 3

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
Posted

Well it looks like Uncle Warren got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. 2nd largest holder of Activision, which he had stated was a acquisition arbitrage play. Well the acquisition was just given a thumbs down by the EU, which will be appealed; but Warren was thinking he could get easy money and the market has said "not so fast my friend" 
But I'm still a believer in BRK.B, it is my 2nd largest holding, maybe this is a buy the dip moment; although I really thought that would be when Charlie or Warren made an appearance in the death pool thread. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24021

Posted
Posted

This shit is crazy to me. The rise in popularity of indexed ETFs just means buy buy buy, I guess. Seems healthy, and completely fine

Quote

Silicon Valley titans Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Nvidia, Seattle’s Amazon and Microsoft and electric vehicle giant Tesla gained more than $2.1 trillion in market capitalization year-to-date through Thursday’s market close cumulatively, according to FactSet data.

Incredibly, those seven stocks account for 88% of the S&P’s 2023 gains, with the index up $2.4 trillion this year and 7% overall.

Apple’s $549 billion in added market cap is by far the greatest of the seven stalwarts, though each stock is up more than 20% year-to-date with more than $175 billion in market cap gains apiece.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/04/10/these-7-tech-stocks-command-almost-90-of-the-sp-500s-gains-signaling-market-rally-may-not-be-so-healthy/?sh=6018129665d5

Markets have been top heavy for awhile, so this isnt exactly breaking news. Just more reinforcement that the "markets" aren't the "economy." MSFT and AAPL share within  QQQ is ridiculous. 

image.png.342a130783b334c562c2e75947401ee6.png

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

This shit is crazy to me. The rise in popularity of indexed ETFs just means buy buy buy, I guess. Seems healthy, and completely fine

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/04/10/these-7-tech-stocks-command-almost-90-of-the-sp-500s-gains-signaling-market-rally-may-not-be-so-healthy/?sh=6018129665d5

Markets have been top heavy for awhile, so this isnt exactly breaking news. Just more reinforcement that the "markets" aren't the "economy." MSFT and AAPL share within  QQQ is ridiculous. 

image.png.342a130783b334c562c2e75947401ee6.png

 

 I am going to waste some time soon and compare the market % of the top 5-10 S&P components over a 10-20 year timeframe to see how skewed (or maybe screwed )this has become.

 

Year % of S&P 500 represented by 10 largest companies
1970 16.6%
1971 16.4%
1972 16.6%
1973 19.2%
1974 19.6%
1975 19.8%
1976 20.6%
1977 20.9%
1978 21.6%
1979 22.8%
1980 21.6%
1981 22.3%
1982 20.4%
1983 19.8%
1984 19.3%
1985 18.9%
1986 17.5%
1987 20.5%
1988 20.5%
1989 21.5%
1990 22.2%
1991 21.8%
1992 20.2%
1993 20.3%
1994 21.1%
1995 23.2%
1996 24.6%
1997 25.8%
1998 26.4%
1999 29.4%
2000 33.8%
2001 28.5%
2002 23.5%
2003 22.3%
2004 21.4%
2005 20.8%
2006 19.4%
2007 19.4%
2008 18.2%
2009 20.8%
2010 19.1%
2011 18.1%
2012 17.9%
2013 18.8%
2014 18.9%
2015 18.2%
2016 17.1%
2017 18.9%
2018 21.8%
2019 22.7%
2020 27.5%
2021 28.7%
Edited by Wally Fairway
because ChatGPT is awesome
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B00M

B00M 6734

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

 I am going to waste some time soon and compare the market % of the top 5-10 S&P components over a 10-20 year timeframe to see how skewed (or maybe screwed )this has become.

 

Year % of S&P 500 represented by 10 largest companies
1970 16.6%
1971 16.4%
1972 16.6%
1973 19.2%
1974 19.6%
1975 19.8%
1976 20.6%
1977 20.9%
1978 21.6%
1979 22.8%
1980 21.6%
1981 22.3%
1982 20.4%
1983 19.8%
1984 19.3%
1985 18.9%
1986 17.5%
1987 20.5%
1988 20.5%
1989 21.5%
1990 22.2%
1991 21.8%
1992 20.2%
1993 20.3%
1994 21.1%
1995 23.2%
1996 24.6%
1997 25.8%
1998 26.4%
1999 29.4%
2000 33.8%
2001 28.5%
2002 23.5%
2003 22.3%
2004 21.4%
2005 20.8%
2006 19.4%
2007 19.4%
2008 18.2%
2009 20.8%
2010 19.1%
2011 18.1%
2012 17.9%
2013 18.8%
2014 18.9%
2015 18.2%
2016 17.1%
2017 18.9%
2018 21.8%
2019 22.7%
2020 27.5%
2021 28.7%

Nice use of the chat bot 

woulda taken forever to make that table manually 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5675

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, B00M said:

Nice use of the chat bot 

woulda taken forever to make that table manually 

How about this one - I was trying to figure out how to show the impact of the top 10 have on the S&P 500,  so why not show the difference between SPY (S&P 500 market weighted fund, just like the index) and  RSP (S&P 500 equal weighted fund)...chatgpt says (footnote - this chatbot only has historical data through part of 2022)


Not nearly the difference that I expected with 2020 being the only year with a significant difference

Here is the annual percentage change in value for each ETF from 2010 to 2022:

Year SPY RSP
2010 15.06% 21.60%
2011 2.11% -2.22%
2012 16.00% 15.92%
2013 32.31% 36.30%
2014 13.52% 13.16%
2015 1.38% -3.18%
2016 11.95% 15.12%
2017 21.83% 18.96%
2018 -4.56% -5.77%
2019 31.22% 28.63%
2020 18.39% 9.51%
2021 26.52% 26.13%
2022* 1.66% 3.44%

*Data as of April 24th, 2022

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Well it looks like Uncle Warren got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. 2nd largest holder of Activision, which he had stated was a acquisition arbitrage play. Well the acquisition was just given a thumbs down by the EU, which will be appealed; but Warren was thinking he could get easy money and the market has said "not so fast my friend" 
But I'm still a believer in BRK.B, it is my 2nd largest holding, maybe this is a buy the dip moment; although I really thought that would be when Charlie or Warren made an appearance in the death pool thread. 

It’s reading like Microsoft will pay the $3bn breakup fee and walk away; a big loss for everyone and an over-rotation for regulators.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

So say you are someone like Zuck where you have a good quarter and your stock is up 15% in a day. You literally add billions to your net worth. Or even some trader that loaded up on options and made hundreds of thousands or millions.

What do you do that day? Do you still go to work? Do you just sit and look at the Yahoo Finance ticker? Do you go eat at the fanciest place you can?

I just imagine that if my net worth instantly went up by that much in a single day I'd have a lot of trouble concentrating. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24021

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So say you are someone like Zuck where you have a good quarter and your stock is up 15% in a day. You literally add billions to your net worth. Or even some trader that loaded up on options and made hundreds of thousands or millions.

What do you do that day? Do you still go to work? Do you just sit and look at the Yahoo Finance ticker? Do you go eat at the fanciest place you can?

I just imagine that if my net worth instantly went up by that much in a single day I'd have a lot of trouble concentrating. 

I imagine for guys like Musk, Zuck, Gates etc, a few billion more literally changes nothing. Lets say  Zuck was worth $70B yesterday, and now he's worth $80B today. His life really hasn't changed at all. He was probably worth $120 billion at Meta's peak. All of those figures are so many more times "set for life" that its just figures on a spreadsheet, more funds to ensure his android exterior continues to fool people. 

Now if its a WSB yolo on options and a guy suddenly 10X's his account to over $1M,  its probably hookers and coke on the menu before throwing the rest of  it on another yolo, and then its back to ramen and weed. 

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