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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Lurch

Lurch 5921

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So say you are someone like Zuck where you have a good quarter and your stock is up 15% in a day. You literally add billions to your net worth. Or even some trader that loaded up on options and made hundreds of thousands or millions.
What do you do that day? Do you still go to work? Do you just sit and look at the Yahoo Finance ticker? Do you go eat at the fanciest place you can?
I just imagine that if my net worth instantly went up by that much in a single day I'd have a lot of trouble concentrating. 

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Eastwood
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That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Captainant

Captainant 27442

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Oooooooopsie.  AMZN warns of slowdown in cloud stuff going forward.  That is not good.

Tech sector is taking a beating in general, so it makes sense that with their main customer base shrinking (or perceived to be at least) that they would warn of a slowdown. So far their layoffs have been end-user services/products like Alexa and Fire devices, but once AMZN and other cloud providers start cutting core technical staff it'll be alarm bells time 

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52-80

52-80 19081

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On 4/27/2023 at 7:09 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

So say you are someone like Zuck where you have a good quarter and your stock is up 15% in a day. You literally add billions to your net worth. Or even some trader that loaded up on options and made hundreds of thousands or millions.

What do you do that day?

Mark-Zuckerberg-Spooks-the-Internet-With

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Blotto

Blotto 23427

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2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I've never seen a market that's been this flat over the past six months yet feels like we're down double digits. 

I think a large reason for that is while the S&P is up 6% YTD, it's really due to the 7 large megacap tech stocks. By weight those stocks are ~25% of the index and they have all performed really well. If you invested 100K into the SPY on 1/1, you now have $106K, not bad. However if you took that $100K and instead invested in just those 7 tech megacaps (proportionally to their S&P weight), you'd have $135K.

image.png.49e3a288fd67349e3b29c4e09bc3f58f.png

Which means if you own significant portions of the other 493 components of the index, you probably are down. Bizarre market for sure. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14128

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Just make a bitcoin out of metal.  BAM!

The US is hurtling towards an entirely preventable economic crisis, and a trillion-dollar coin could solve all of its problems — if the Biden administration decides to take it seriously.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government could run out of money to pay its debts as soon as June 1, triggering a never-before-seen debt-ceiling crisis. Even a short default could cost the country almost a million jobs and trigger a recession.

https://news.yahoo.com/1-trillion-platinum-coin-could-100000669.html

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

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6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Just make a bitcoin out of metal.  BAM!

The US is hurtling towards an entirely preventable economic crisis, and a trillion-dollar coin could solve all of its problems — if the Biden administration decides to take it seriously.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government could run out of money to pay its debts as soon as June 1, triggering a never-before-seen debt-ceiling crisis. Even a short default could cost the country almost a million jobs and trigger a recession.

https://news.yahoo.com/1-trillion-platinum-coin-could-100000669.html

Man - I really hope if they make the coin that Yellen (or Biden) don't lose it in the sofa cushions. 
But first a quick question - who do you think they will put on the bust of the Trillion dollar coin? (we all know that Trump would do it if Pres, but only if they put his bust on the coin)

Finding Money A person Finding Money in couch cushions. finding money in couch stock pictures, royalty-free photos & images

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5271

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13th!!! straight "stronger than expected" jobs report. 

253K vs. 180K estimated

U-3 "headline" unemployment 3.4% (50-year low)

U-6 "real" unemployment: 6.6% (30-year low).

Black U-3: 4.7% (all-time low)

Prime-Age (25-54) participation rate: 83.3% (15-year high).

About the only metric that hasn't fully recovered or hit new records is the overall participation rate (currently 62.6% vs. 63.3% in February 2020). Boomers that quit working during COVID ain't coming back.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

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12 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

13th!!! straight "stronger than expected" jobs report. 

253K vs. 180K estimated

U-3 "headline" unemployment 3.4% (50-year low)

U-6 "real" unemployment: 6.6% (30-year low).

Black U-3: 4.7% (all-time low)

Prime-Age (25-54) participation rate: 83.3% (15-year high).

About the only metric that hasn't fully recovered or hit new records is the overall participation rate (currently 62.6% vs. 63.3% in February 2020). Boomers that quit working during COVID ain't coming back.

looks like good news for the market; now what the Fed does with all that is a whole other story
(seems irrational that the Fed thinks they can work inflation, employment, the market, banking stability and the overall economy by tweaking just one interest rate.)

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B00M

B00M 6280

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Posted
3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

13th!!! straight "stronger than expected" jobs report. 

253K vs. 180K estimated

U-3 "headline" unemployment 3.4% (50-year low)

U-6 "real" unemployment: 6.6% (30-year low).

Black U-3: 4.7% (all-time low)

Prime-Age (25-54) participation rate: 83.3% (15-year high).

About the only metric that hasn't fully recovered or hit new records is the overall participation rate (currently 62.6% vs. 63.3% in February 2020). Boomers that quit working during COVID ain't coming back.

 

any concern that the Feb and March jobs reports were revised down after similar rosey initial numbers? Feb was revised from +326k to +248k… and march was revised from +236k to +165k… perhaps April’s +180k prediction will prove more accurate. 
 


 

 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5271

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22 minutes ago, B00M said:

 

any concern that the Feb and March jobs reports were revised down after similar rosey initial numbers? Feb was revised from +326k to +248k… and march was revised from +236k to +165k… perhaps April’s +180k prediction will prove more accurate. 
 


 

 

Meh, it's certainly possible, but revisions go both ways. Before this past report, most revisions were to the upside over the last year. Usually a factor of underdoing or overdoing seasonal adjustments. As long as the other metrics stay encouraging (U-3, U-6, prime-age LFPR...), I don't really care all that much about the headline number.

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Blotto

Blotto 23427

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Quote

The world never stops, so why should investing be any different? Today we are announcing Robinhood 24 Hour Market, which offers people unprecedented flexibility and access to the markets. Using 24 Hour Market, people can place limit orders to buy whole shares of 43 of the most traded ETFs and individual stocks– such as TSLA, AMZN and AAPL– 24 hours a day, five days a week. 24 Hour Market lets customers invest when they want, on their schedule. Trading hours will run from 8:00 pm ET on Sunday to 8:00 pm ET on Friday.

https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2023/5/9/the-24-hour-market-is-here

Robinhood is a shady bit player and the bid/ask spread will probably be atrocious when they start, but they were also able to get the entire industry to move towards zero commission trading, so who knows if they can steer the entire industry in their direction again. Lets get those options markets open 24/5 so I can my degenerate friends can gamble round the clock. To be honest, I'm a little unclear how all this works as I thought robinhood was a broker, not a market. But if you can't trust robinhood, who can ya trust? 

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25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2023/5/9/the-24-hour-market-is-here

Robinhood is a shady bit player and the bid/ask spread will probably be atrocious when they start, but they were also able to get the entire industry to move towards zero commission trading, so who knows if they can steer the entire industry in their direction again. Lets get those options markets open 24/5 so I can my degenerate friends can gamble round the clock. To be honest, I'm a little unclear how all this works as I thought robinhood was a broker, not a market. But if you can't trust robinhood, who can ya trust? 

Do not like that at all. Rests are good for the market. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27442

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22 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Do not like that at all. Rests are good for the market. 

But less rest means more volatility means more trading volume means more profits for RH. It would be against the fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to NOT destabilize the markets to improve stock prices!

(Don't look too far into that logic, it only has to work for a quarter, next quarter we'll figure something else out)

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52-80

52-80 19081

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50 minutes ago, Blotto said:

https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2023/5/9/the-24-hour-market-is-here

Robinhood is a shady bit player and the bid/ask spread will probably be atrocious when they start, but they were also able to get the entire industry to move towards zero commission trading, so who knows if they can steer the entire industry in their direction again. Lets get those options markets open 24/5 so I can my degenerate friends can gamble round the clock. To be honest, I'm a little unclear how all this works as I thought robinhood was a broker, not a market. But if you can't trust robinhood, who can ya trust? 

It's select equities, it's not all equities, and on a 5 day schedule.  Meaning they're just using the international markets (eg frankfurt exchange) to deliver the shares.  Literally brokering work.

30 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Do not like that at all. Rests are good for the market. 

They're also going to offer Futures trading.  Futures dont sleep.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

It's select equities, it's not all equities, and on a 5 day schedule.  Meaning they're just using the international markets (eg frankfurt exchange) to deliver the shares.  Literally brokering work.

They're also going to offer Futures trading.  Futures dont sleep.

Where it could mess with things is mutual fund pricing irregularities.  Since funds only price once per day, the intraday/overnight volatility could affect some more lightly traded funds in a negative manner.  

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52-80

52-80 19081

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25 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Where it could mess with things is mutual fund pricing irregularities.  Since funds only price once per day, the intraday/overnight volatility could affect some more lightly traded funds in a negative manner.  

Didn't see in their earnings materials that they plan to offer MFs (maybe they already do?).  The round the clock trading of equities is a pretty good move... if they can efficiently deliver all the positions without needing to warehouse too much of it.  Probably they can settle most of that trades internally

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

Didn't see in their earnings materials that they plan to offer MFs (maybe they already do?).  The round the clock trading of equities is a pretty good move... if they can efficiently deliver all the positions without needing to warehouse too much of it.  Probably they can settle most of that trades internally

I'm not talking about offering MF's, i'm talking about how the pricing of MF's could get messed up by around the clock equities trading in an open market.  Price discrepancies on the equities could create pricing mismatches in MF's as a result.   I mean, it's probably a miniscule effect, but it's something to think about in my weird brain I suppose.  

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52-80

52-80 19081

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21 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not talking about offering MF's, i'm talking about how the pricing of MF's could get messed up by around the clock equities trading in an open market.  Price discrepancies on the equities could create pricing mismatches in MF's as a result.   I mean, it's probably a miniscule effect, but it's something to think about in my weird brain I suppose.  

yeah but these equities were already effectively traded around the stock as theyre listed in foreign exchanges, so this is just an issue of MF marking the price.  more volume should smoothen the volatility... but either way due to the size of RH, like you say, its a ripple in the pond anyway

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Blotto

Blotto 23427

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2 hours ago, Tailgate said:

NVDA FTW. Stay long on this one. AI OG member.

A stock with an $800B market cap usually doesn't sport a ttm P/E of 180. Look at their recent earnings reports and take note of the revenue and net income trends

 
May-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Revenues ($B) $5,661 $6,507 $7,103 $7,643 $8,288 $6,704 $5,931 $6,051
Net income ($B) $1,912 $2,374 $2,464 $3,003 $1,618 $656 $680 $1,414

They can keep saying AI on every earnings call, but eventually the revenue/earnings need to keep pace with the NVDA stock price. If I had to guess, this one will fall back down to that $200 range sometime this year. But I hesitate to put my money where my mouth is because this stock has taken TSLA's place as the most ridiculously overvalued stock in the market. Cant buy it out of principle, wont short it out of fear, lulz. For all I know, the damn AI servers are the ones driving the fucking stock price bonkers in a perverted feedback loop. 

Their earnings call will be interesting next week. NVDA is up 50% in the 3 months since their last earnings call in a flat market. The stock is priced for mf'n perfection......fuck, now just typing this out, I'm gonna talk myself into some deeeeeeeep OTM puts as a lotto ticket. Looks like June 16 $250p's  are ~$1.20. That one month time window encompasses both their earnings call and a likely timeframe for Congress to fuck up the debt ceiling issue. 

Temptation GIFs | Tenor

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I'm gonna talk myself into some deeeeeeeep OTM puts as a lotto ticket. Looks like June 16 $250p's  are ~$1.20. That one month time window encompasses both their earnings call and a likely timeframe for Congress to fuck up the debt ceiling issue. 

Yes Do It GIFs | Tenor

 

But the question is, should I do it?

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Blotto

Blotto 23427

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yes Do It GIFs | Tenor

 

But the question is, should I do it?

Do you like losing money? Because that seems like an outstanding method for losing money. 

I grabbed a handful of July FSLR puts last Friday after it inexplicably shot up like 30%. Those are already up nicely, so if they keep climbing the next couple of days, I'm thinking I'll close them out and do something stupid with the profits before NVDA earnings. Don't have to pay taxes if you lose all your profits

this-is-using-your-head-smart.gif.33797b0e69dfb90884d781a92b99426e.gif

 

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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1139

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Posted
On 5/18/2023 at 7:18 PM, Blotto said:

A stock with an $800B market cap usually doesn't sport a ttm P/E of 180. Look at their recent earnings reports and take note of the revenue and net income trends

 
May-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Revenues ($B) $5,661 $6,507 $7,103 $7,643 $8,288 $6,704 $5,931 $6,051
Net income ($B) $1,912 $2,374 $2,464 $3,003 $1,618 $656 $680 $1,414

They can keep saying AI on every earnings call, but eventually the revenue/earnings need to keep pace with the NVDA stock price. If I had to guess, this one will fall back down to that $200 range sometime this year. But I hesitate to put my money where my mouth is because this stock has taken TSLA's place as the most ridiculously overvalued stock in the market. Cant buy it out of principle, wont short it out of fear, lulz. For all I know, the damn AI servers are the ones driving the fucking stock price bonkers in a perverted feedback loop. 

Their earnings call will be interesting next week. NVDA is up 50% in the 3 months since their last earnings call in a flat market. The stock is priced for mf'n perfection......fuck, now just typing this out, I'm gonna talk myself into some deeeeeeeep OTM puts as a lotto ticket. Looks like June 16 $250p's  are ~$1.20. That one month time window encompasses both their earnings call and a likely timeframe for Congress to fuck up the debt ceiling issue. 

Temptation GIFs | Tenor

 

Good call, they are certainly acting like the old TSLA, they can put up a 5% day because they feel like it. Fundamentals non factor currently, as long as they say AI constantly. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26277

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Posted

<cracking knuckles>
It's been a while since I did a speculative trade, but who feels like playing the VIX this week?
Here's the chart of the two weeks in 2011 surrounding the debt limit near-default

  • the Monday before the debt limit deal
  • the passage of the deal on 8/1/11
  • S&P Lowers the debt rating 8/5/11

image.thumb.png.fcb2887f2693b09aceeed85ccf43c331.png

 VIX is likely to open around $20 tomorrow. 

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