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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Boss Hogg

Boss Hogg 808

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Let’s hope the chamber is empty again.  What could possibly go wrong?

Idk. You tell me. 
 

What is negative about a government shutdown from a market standpoint?
 

Political uncertainty? That’s a stretch. Hasn’t seemed to matter.


Any missed government spending from a prolonged shutdown is always made back up. 
 

It’s the definition of a nothingburger. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Boss Hogg said:

Idk. You tell me. 
 

What is negative about a government shutdown from a market standpoint?
 

Political uncertainty? That’s a stretch. Hasn’t seemed to matter.


Any missed government spending from a prolonged shutdown is always made back up. 
 

It’s the definition of a nothingburger. 

Until it isn’t.  But nonchalance toward dysfunction is exactly what begets black swans.  

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Wouldn’t a shut down affect Freddie/Fannie and the mortgage business?

Its a fake. Fugazi, fugayzee, its a wazi its a wayzee.
 

Not all institutions and staff get shut down. Only the useless ones.  Its basically the 90-year-old children deciding that they cant agree on lunch so they get to take the week off work. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Boss Hogg said:

I’d like to hear how a temporary government shutdown causes irreparable damage, especially to the market. The whole debt ceiling thing I can see. Once you default a line has been crossed. Temporary shutdown just doesn’t move the needle to me. And it hasn’t historically.  

Irreparable is moving goalposts, but sure I’ll play along.  No paychecks for active duty military, no economic data reporting, additional fodder for credit agencies who worry about debt, spending, and lack of will to tackle either… But I think it’s a fun time for the let it all burn folks.

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Boss Hogg said:

I’d like to hear how a temporary government shutdown causes irreparable damage,

I don't know if it will cause irreparable damage, but I read the shutdown will affect the agencies that compile the economic and inflation data that the Fed is using to inform their decision making.  They might end up steering monetary policy with a blindfold.

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Boss Hogg

Boss Hogg 808

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bernorange said:

I don't know if it will cause irreparable damage, but I read the shutdown will affect the agencies that compile the economic and inflation data that the Fed is using to inform their decision making.  They might end up steering monetary policy with a blindfold.

Meh. The longest shutdown ever was 35 days. 
 

2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Irreparable is moving goalposts, but sure I’ll play along.  No paychecks for active duty military, no economic data reporting, additional fodder for credit agencies who worry about debt, spending, and lack of will to tackle either… But I think it’s a fun time for the let it all burn folks.

Again, 35 days. 
 

Who are the let it all burn folks? Because the roles are reversed in DC  from 5 years ago when the longest ever shutdown occurred.  It’s pretty clear it’s for CR reasons that this stuff is getting blown up. Same with debt ceiling. We were never defaulting but people had their hair on fire over that. 
 

The initial point remains that markets DGAF about shutdowns historically and there’s no clear why they should this time. 

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52-80

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bernorange said:

I don't know if it will cause irreparable damage, but I read the shutdown will affect the agencies that compile the economic and inflation data that the Fed is using to inform their decision making.  They might end up steering monetary policy with a blindfold.

On the wavelength that they operate thats not a real concern. Most of the macro indicators are compiled on monthly or quarterly basis and Fed actions are pretty tempered anyway. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, bernorange said:

I don't know if it will cause irreparable damage, but I read the shutdown will affect the agencies that compile the economic and inflation data that the Fed is using to inform their decision making.  They might end up steering monetary policy with a blindfold.

image.gif.2c45fc9167406dadb61eaf8b535f1b2a.gif

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

Posted
Posted
On 9/27/2023 at 7:46 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

It appears the local brain trust don't like having their hypocrisy called out.

 

On 9/27/2023 at 1:13 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Poor stock market returns make me butthurt.

 

https://www.factsarefirst.com/comparison/donald-trump/joe-biden

image.thumb.jpeg.168db39be2b95558ae6cbeb1e3913045.jpeg

 

On 9/28/2023 at 7:00 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

FWIW, I agree with you but it was proving a point that certain posters only like "facts" that support their narrative. They get butthurt when it doesn't. 

Self awareness...

How does it work?

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

Posted
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On 9/29/2023 at 10:44 PM, Boss Hogg said:

Idk. You tell me. 
 

What is negative about a government shutdown from a market standpoint?
 

Political uncertainty? That’s a stretch. Hasn’t seemed to matter.


Any missed government spending from a prolonged shutdown is always made back up. 
 

It’s the definition of a nothingburger. 

 

On 9/29/2023 at 11:14 PM, Boss Hogg said:

I’d like to hear how a temporary government shutdown causes irreparable damage, especially to the market. The whole debt ceiling thing I can see. Once you default a line has been crossed. Temporary shutdown just doesn’t move the needle to me. And it hasn’t historically.  

“The drama is playing out as Moody’s Investors Service, the only remaining major credit grader to give the US a top rating, warned in late September its confidence in the US is wavering because of concerns about “governance.””

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B00M

B00M 6734

Posted
Posted
On 9/29/2023 at 11:14 PM, Boss Hogg said:

I’d like to hear how a temporary government shutdown causes irreparable damage, especially to the market. The whole debt ceiling thing I can see. Once you default a line has been crossed. Temporary shutdown just doesn’t move the needle to me. And it hasn’t historically.  

The consequences so far have been credit rating reductions… which I assume can increase the cost of borrowing… I have no idea whether or not it actually has

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52-80

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Posted
40 minutes ago, B00M said:

The consequences so far have been credit rating reductions… which I assume can increase the cost of borrowing… I have no idea whether or not it actually has

The shutdown was also one of Fitch’s reason for its downgrade (to a still-very good-rating) 2 months ago. 

Of course it isn’t the shutdown or rating itself that is problematic per se. Both are consequence of the national debt….and that thing has been piling up for decades. 

It’s the can this country keeps kicking down the road. It’ll blow up sometime. Just we dont know when.

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

Posted
Posted

FWIW:

Quote

...
Our call of the day from Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, offers an idea on the next market to fall. That’s as he raises the alarm over what he calls the “Wild Bunch,” or bond vigilantes, who have “seized control of the Treasury market.” His hope is that cooling inflation will calm things down.

In a note to clients, Yardeni ticks off evidence of those bond vigilantes in action. For starters, the fact that the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose on recent weak data instead of declining suggests a “shift in bond investors’ focused from what monetary policy makers may do to rising alarm about what fiscal policy makers are doing.”

“The worry is that the escalating federal budget deficit will create more supply of bonds than demand can meet, requiring higher yields to clear the market; that worry has been the bond vigilantes’ entrance cue,” he says.
...
“Could it be that some of them view the government’s securities as riskier than high-yield corporates? The result of their rampage in the Treasury market suggests as much,” he said, adding that they are on alert for signs of rampage spreading to high yields.

And for sure, the wild bunch have DC policy makers in their sights, after causing the Treasury market to fully reverse a drop in the 10-year yield from the global financial crisis through the pandemic over the past three years, he notes.

Their message is clear, says Yardeni: “Take meaningful actions to reduce the federal deficit now and in the future or we will push the bond yield up to whatever level it takes to get you to do so!”
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-wild-bunch-have-taken-control-of-the-bond-market-heres-where-they-could-wreak-havoc-next-1448322b?rss=1&siteid=rss

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2336

Posted
Posted

Gonna do a little buying and swing trading around the 200 day moving average and previous resistance level of 4200. Got my SPY limit order in. If I dont work on the day it hits, Ill change it and buy QQQ around that level instead. Looking for a 2%-4% gain. Worked well for me last year. Have yet to trade at all this year.

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I could sell some SPY or BRK.B, or start to sell calls and buy puts.

Where should I focus this effort, to maximize my impact on stopping the equities slide/opening crash?

I'm willing to do my part

sell VIX futures when it hits 20

because this aggression cannot stand, man

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Captainant

Captainant 28537

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I was told that shutting down the Government was going to tank the market. Looks like not shutting it down tanked the market...

No you keep repeating it's the shutdown, but really it's the increasing instability and chaos that are cracking up uncertainty and negatively impacting the market. The shutdown is certainly a salient example of such chaos and instability though

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Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-economy-adds-336000-jobs-in-september-3192387

U.S. economy adds 336,000 jobs in September

 

Gonna fall like whoa today.

There's too many damn jobs! Tank the market!

Looking at a summary, I don't see how you add so many jobs over the past couple of years yet the UE is staying steady. This last report the participation rate stayed steady as well.

image.png.01b9b213c1d25b89c8952013abcfee04.png

"The labor force participation rate increase remained unchanged at 62.8%, the highest level since February 2020. Average weekly hours also remained flat at 34.4."

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Lurch

Lurch 5949

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Looking at a summary, I don't see how you add so many jobs over the past couple of years yet the UE is staying steady. This last report the participation rate stayed steady as well.

Isn't it just that they didnt lay off people at near the magnitude that we did?

https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/087/2022/004/article-A001-en.xml

"A Comparison of Dynamics in Advanced Europe versus the United States

Most of the labor market adjustment in the United States in 2020 occurred through employment (“extensive margin”). The decline in total hours worked-of about the same magnitude as during the GFC-was entirely driven by employment, which dropped by an unprecedented 12.3 percent year over year in 2020Q2. In the same quarter, the number of unemployed workers more than tripled and the unemployment rate jumped to an unprecedented 13.0 percent, even though labor force participation declined. Over the whole year, on average, US employment fell by 6.2 percent and the unemployment rate increased by 4.4 percentage points, compared to a decline of 1.4 percent and an increase of 0.4 percentage points in EU-27, respectively."

Edited by Lurch
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

Posted
Posted

Wait, good news is good news??!?!?

Markets initially freaked at the jobs report b/c of course bond traders hated it. Quick U-turn this morning after the initial selloff. 

Big headline job number, but wage growth was basically back to historic average of 0.2% MOM, which is nothing that SHOULD cause Fed to overreact.

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